Hostages: deal or no deal?

The New Neo Posted on by

Israel says not so fast:

Israel’s government is aiming to vote Saturday night, local time, to accept the terms of a ceasefire and hostage agreement, multiple outlets reported, delaying implementation of a deal that negotiators hoped to go into effect on Sunday.

While President Biden, President-elect Trump, and Qatar’s emir announced Wednesday that a deal had been agreed between Israel and Hamas, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delayed beginning the internal Israeli process of approving the deal.

There is dissension in Netanyahu’s cabinet:

Diaspora Affairs and Combatting Antisemitism Minister Amichai Chikli (Likud) threatened in a lengthy statement on Thursday to resign his position as a minister if the incoming hostage deal terms include a retreat from the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border or “if we do not return to fight in order to complete the goals of the war.”

I trust very little that I read about this deal. It seems to still be in a state of flux, plus I don’t trust reporting in general. However, from what I’ve seen, I think both of his stated goals are being met, although I’ve also read articles that seem to state the opposite.

One of the things that seems to matter – or that might matter – is this statement of Trump’s. Strip away the bragging (difficult, I know; there’s so much of it) and pay attention to the promise itself [emphasis mine]:

This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies. I am thrilled American and Israeli hostages will be returning home to be reunited with their families and loved ones. With this deal in place, my National Security team, through the efforts of Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, will continue to work closely with Israel and our Allies to make sure Gaza NEVER again becomes a terrorist safe haven. We will continue promoting PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH throughout the region, as we build upon the momentum of this ceasefire to further expand the Historic Abraham Accords. This is only the beginning of great things to come for America, and indeed, the World! We have achieved so much without even being in the White House. Just imagine all of the wonderful things that will happen when I return to the White House, and my Administration is fully confirmed, so they can secure more Victories for the United States!

Gaza is full of terrorists, and that was the case even without the release of 1000+ more who are presently in Israeli prisons and are slated for release in the deal.

That is, if the deal goes through. It’s not over till the Israeli cabinet sings. And until the exchange happens. And until Hamas doesn’t violate the ceasefire or break the deal in other ways. And even then it’s hardly over. As Trump says, this is only the beginning, whether of “wonderful things that will happen” during Trump’s turn, or of the hostage deal itself.

ADDENDUM:

Almost all the commentary I read or hear about the deal is that it’s awful, terrible, a surrender, shocking, a betrayal by Trump. I think that’s a very shortsighted way to look at it, although of course it might end up that way. But as I believe I wrote in another post on the subject, this deal is like an iceberg and most of it is unseen: what Trump promised, what Hamas will ultimately do, what the Israelis will ultimately do, and whether there was any other way to get some of the hostages back. There was not, IMHO.

I’ve looked for someone who agrees with me on this, and I found this clip from Ben Shapiro. He’s nothing if not articulate, and he articulates my position very well. The portion I’ve cued up is a little over five minutes long:

RIP

The New Neo Posted on by

David Lynch has died at 78. Looking at his obituaries reminds me that for a while his works were highly popular and widely discussed, particularly Blue Velvet and Twin Peaks. I most definitely watched both, but remember little of either except a vague sense of unease.

Then there’s Bob Uecker, who has died at the age of 90:

Bob Uecker, who parlayed six laughable seasons as a light-hitting catcher into a second career in comedy highlighted by hilarious turns in the Major League movies, on The Tonight Show and in beer commercials, died Thursday. He was 90.

A member of the Baseball Hall of Fame, Uecker was a popular play-by-play man for his hometown Milwaukee Brewers since 1971, and it was the team that announced his death.

RIP.

President Biden …

The New Neo Posted on by

… says goodbye, although he’s not done yet. There are still a few days left in which he can cause trouble.

I didn’t listen to the speech. However:

He opened his remarks by taking full credit for the hostage deal between Israel and Hamas announced earlier in the day. Notably absent from his account was any acknowledgment of the crucial role played by President-elect Donald Trump’s negotiators or the fact that Trump’s victory itself made Hamas significantly more willing to strike a deal. …

Despite calling MAGA supporters “garbage,” he emphasized that he has been a president for all Americans. …

Similarly, forgetting that many first responders lost their jobs as a result of his administration’s ill-conceived vaccine mandate, Biden praised them as the “heroes” on the frontlines who guided us through the pandemic.

He spoke of the Declaration of Independence, our system of separation of powers, checks and balances, and the significance of the words “we the people” in our Constitution, as if he actually reveres any of these ideals.

Next came the lies. Biden disingenuously claimed that his administration “brought violent crime to a 50-year low. … We have created nearly 17 million new jobs, more than any other single administration in a single term. More people have health care than ever before. And overseas, we have strengthened NATO. Ukraine is still free. And we’ve pulled ahead in our competition with China. And so much more.” …

Biden said he worries about “the dangerous concentration of power in the hands of a very few ultrawealthy people, and the dangerous consequences if their abuse of power is left unchecked. Today, an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence that literally threatens our entire democracy, our basic rights and freedoms and a fair shot for everyone to get ahead. We see the consequences all across America.”

He blamed “the existential threat of climate change” for the California wildfires and the hurricane that devastated western North Carolina.

Citing former President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s warning about the military-industrial complex in his 1960 farewell address, Biden said he was “equally concerned about the potential rise of a tech-industrial complex that could pose real dangers for our country as well.”

He attacked misinformation, disinformation, and lamented the decision of Big tech leaders to end fact-checking on social media sites.

Blahbity blah blah.

What’s up with Michelle Obama, and why care?

The New Neo Posted on by

The news is that Michelle Obama is skipping Trump’s inauguration:

“There’s no overstating her feelings about [Trump]. She’s not one to plaster on a pleasant face and pretend for protocol’s sake,” a source close to the former first lady told People Magazine. “Michelle doesn’t do anything because it’s expected or it’s protocol or it’s tradition.”

“She served in the public eye and did all the public good that she could for eight years as first lady,” the source said of Obama fulfilling her duties at Trump’s 2017 inauguration. “You’ll see her when she has a project or cause to promote but she doesn’t feel the need to be a public figure anymore,” they continued.

Longtime allies of Michelle Obama also told The Hill they believed her decision to skip the inauguration was an act of resistance.

I’ve never been one to write much about Michelle Obama, either pro or con. Any interest I retain in her is simply because I realize that a lot of people – a lot, perhaps even a majority – would vote for her were she to run for president. Fortunately, she’s never given any indication of wanting to do that, despite almost constant rumors to that effect.

The explanation for the news about Michelle not attending the inauguration is a good example, however, of her inflated sense of self-righteousness for an act of rudeness. “Resistance”? I guess she’s once again not proud of the US, her default position.

However, I also find the announcement interesting coming on the heels of Michelle’s no-show at the Jimmy Carter funeral. I would have thought that would be an event she might have attended. Was her problem that Trump would be there, too? Her husband didn’t seem to mind. Or is it actually that she is through with public life except when it’s completely on her terms and she’s the star of the occasion? That’s my guess.

Then of course there are divorce rumors. That’s always a possibility, but it wouldn’t be my first bet.

ADDENDUM: In only tangentially related news, Ivanka Trump says she’s “through with politics” and won’t be involved in her father’s new term.

Stop me before I install another game on my phone

The New Neo Posted on by

Until last night, I had no games on my cellphone.

As of today, I have no games on my cellphone.

In between, in a moment of weakness, I installed a game that was being advertised. It was some sort of block game that involved spatial reasoning, and it was kind of fun.

And, as it turned out, highly addictive. That’s why I ultimately deleted it. It reminded me of something I now recall from years ago: I used to sometimes play solitaire – with real cards, prior to the internet – when avoiding homework or other disagreeable tasks. I don’t have any special problem with addiction to substances or to much of anything else, but the experience last night was an uncomfortable reminder that we all have our weaknesses.

Do I even like games like that? Not so much. But this one took my mind off a lot of things, at least for a few hours, and had its own strong compelling force.

Hostage deal announced

The New Neo Posted on by

The main elements of a hostage deal seem to be in place. You can read about them here, but they’re essentially what I wrote about yesterday in this post. A few details remain to be ironed out, and Netanyahu’s cabinet has to approve.

I see this deal as a sort of iceberg, with the part we can see being the least of it. I’ve read a great deal of commentary about it already, and most is either merely descriptive or strongly negative. The negative opinions can be summarized as “Trump betrayed Israel.” But if that’s the case, it would represent a 180-degree shift from his previous position.

Is that possible? Yes; we don’t need a reminder that Trump is a loose cannon. Is it likely? I don’t think so. It’s more likely that Netanyahu has always known a deal is inevitable and necessary and he trusts Trump more than he ever trusted Biden – and Hamas fears Trump more than they ever feared Biden.

What did Trump promise Netanyahu in return? Help with Iran? Gloves off with Hamas after the hostage pressure is eliminated? Unequivocal support in places like the UN? I don’t know, but I hope it was something and it makes sense that it was something. It also makes sense that it’s a something we’re not going to hear about until it bears fruit in action.

How many hostages are alive? My guess is thirty or forty.

Meet the LA fire looters

The New Neo Posted on by

At least, here are some that have been arrested so far. I bet they didn’t expect to be caught, considering the way California usually treats thieves, and considering the chaos of the situation. Still, they might just get a mild wrist slap.

I found the first word in this sentence from the article rather odd:

Remarkably, none of those arrested were actually living in the evacuation zone and seemingly travelled with the intention of taking advantage of the devastation.

“Remarkably”? I don’t find it the least bit surprising or remarkable. Did the author expect them to have been from toney Pacific Palisades?

When disasters occur, there are always human locusts to take advantage. I have read elsewhere that in the case of these fires the criminals are looting the intact houses whose residents have been evacuated, and therefore the homes are empty but the belongings are all there and ripe for the taking. This particular sweep didn’t just result in arrests for theft, because most were not caught in the act:

Officers arrested Kaliel Love, who was on probation, in an alley behind the 600 block of the San Vicente Boulevard after he tried to evade police by running away.

Dominic Pacheco Magana, 18, and Miguel Angel Dorantes, 22, are also accused of conspiring to burgle homes after they were pulled over driving a van displaying stolen registration stickers.

Officers scoured the vehicle and found black Nike nylon gloves, a black ski mask and three large freight tote bags and black t-shirts.

Pacheco’s phone had the Watch Duty app open. The app monitors fire and evacuation zones.

‘Based on the items located inside the vehicle, the location of the vehicle stop, the ski mask, and the attempt to conceal their identity and avoid detection by removing the license plate, officers arrested the duo for being in the mandatory evacuation area with the specific intent to commit residential burglaries,’ police said.

Santa Monica Police said two people were also arrested for being in possession of concealed handguns.

The rest of the detainees were arrested for violations including drug possession, driving violations, outstanding warrants, parole and probation violations.

They also caught some arsonists – although not in Pacific Palisades – possibly inspired with a contagion effect:

Two people have also been arrested for lighting fires, including Ruben Montes, 29, who was detained for arson on Sunday in Irwindale, roughly 16 miles away from Altadena, where the deadly Eaton Fire continues to rage.

Mexican national Juan Manuel Sierra-Leyva, was also taken into custody after allegedly being caught on video walking with a yellow blowtorch before he was confronted by residents in Calabasas, west of Beverly Hills.

I will add here that I know some people in Pacific Palisades whose house burned down. I knew them when they were just starting out and had nothing. They’ve lived there for close to fifty years, and are now old and ill. Harrowing.

The Pete Hegseth hearings

The New Neo Posted on by

I’m doing a roundup for this.

Ace opines, with clips, in this post.

There’s a lot of coverage at RedState.

Legal Insurrection has this as well as this. From the former, the following Hegseth quote: “I support Israel destroying and killing every last member of Hamas.”

More at Instapundit.

I doubt most people watch these things. I also think Hegseth will be confirmed.

What we know about a possible hostage deal

The New Neo Posted on by

I consider it all rumor until it happens, if it happens – and one of the many things we don’t know is whether it will actually happen. But here are some of my thoughts on the matter.

Because it has come to the point where any attempt at rescue will cause hostages to be murdered by their guards, the only way Israel can get hostages back alive is a deal. The deal was always going to involve the release of enormous numbers of terrorists. The only way that wouldn’t happen is if Israel had considered the hostages as dead from the start, and had refused to negotiate with Hamas at all. I don’t think Israeli society would have stood for that.

Plus, even though theoretically such a no-negotiation policy would have discouraged the taking of hostages in the future, it wouldn’t have discouraged it enough. Why? Because although one reason for terrorists’ hostage-taking is a pragmatic one – the release of prisoners – there is another big reason, which is to inflict suffering on the entire Jewish people. The terrorists are also sadists, and so that motive might be enough in and of itself.

Therefore I think some sort of lopsided deal has always been inevitable.

The release of a thousand prisoners may or may not end up mattering, depending on what Israel does next. It may be hard to believe, but Hamas has been recruiting new people lately. There seems to be no shortage of Gazans willing to die for the noble cause of wiping Israel off the face of the earth. Whether these particular thousand prisoners are released or not, the Israelis are in this for the long haul, and they have to figure out a way to improve the situation enormously or it will happen again and again no matter what they do. They absolutely cannot go back to the way it was before. And so what is most important – and what always was most important, deal or no – is Israel’s long-term approach going forward.

And what of the role of the upcoming Trump administration in any deal that may be made? Certainly they have exerted some pressure, but I don’t know the extent of it. Trump has motivation for a deal to be made before he takes office so he can claim victory on that score, and Biden has motivation for a deal to be made while he’s still in office so he can claim victory on that score.

I don’t think Netanyahu will sell his country down the river, and I have to trust that the Israelis have more tricks up their sleeves than we know about.

With all that as background, here’s an article on the deal:

Key mediator Qatar said Tuesday that a day earlier it had presented both parties with a “final” draft of the agreement. Israel’s Channel 12 news reported Monday that Jerusalem considered it broadly acceptable, and senior Israeli officials said they were waiting for Hamas’s reaction.

The Associated Press reported Tuesday that Hamas accepted the deal as well, citing two officials involved in the talks. However, CNN later cited an Egyptian official as saying the mediating countries — Qatar, Egypt, and the United States — had not yet received a response from the Palestinian terror group.

Hamas did say the ongoing negotiations had reached their “final stage” and that it had held consultations with other Palestinian factions and informed them of the “progress made.”

See what I mean? Clear as mud.

Details:

The three-phase agreement — based on a framework laid out by US President Joe Biden and endorsed by the UN Security Council — would begin with the gradual release of 33 hostages over a six-week period, including women, children, adults over the age of 50, and severely sick and wounded civilians.

Israel believes most of the 33 are alive but that some are dead.

In exchange, Israel would release many hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners. The BBC put the number at 1,000 prisoners, including approximately 190 terrorists who have been serving sentences of 15 years or more.

On Monday, Israeli diplomatic officials, briefing military and diplomatic reporters, said high-profile “murderer” terrorists would not be released to the West Bank under the deal, and nobody who took part in the October 7, 2023, Hamas onslaught would be freed.

Time will tell.