Haley’s support and other election 2024 matters

The New Neo Posted on by

Nikki Haley’s supporters in Iowa are Biden-friendly (or Biden-adjacent):

nearly half of [Haley’s Iowa voters] — 43% — [said] they’d vote for Democratic President Joe Biden over Trump.

These new findings from the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa further illustrate the degree to which Haley is bringing in support from independents, Democrats and Republicans who have been uneasy with Trump’s takeover of the GOP. Fully half of her Iowa caucus supporters are independents or crossover Democrats, according to the survey results.

This makes perfect sense. It’s exactly the demographic to which Haley would be likely to appeal. The GOP base, of course, is loyal to Trump, and my guess is that many would not vote for Haley were she to be the nominee – which I predict won’t be happening anyway. But the split between a candidate who seems to appeal to moderate and especially Independent voters, such as Haley, and one who appeals to the conservative right is an old old story.

My favored candidate remains DeSantis. But unless he can make big inroads in New Hampshire in the next week, Haley will best him there – probably as a result of crossover votes from Democrats and Independents. Crossover votes represent a flaw in the primary system in my opinion. They’re not as much of a problem in a year in which both parties’ primaries are very competitive, but this year Biden has it locked up (if the powers behind the throne don’t give him the hook, that is), and so Biden supporters feel free to meddle in the Republican primaries in states that allow it.

Haley has refused to attend a planned debate in New Hampshire with DeSantis for the ostensible reason that Trump won’t be there. That reason doesn’t pass the smell test. She has attended many debates, including one recently with DeSantis, without Trump. I think her refusal now is that she’s way ahead in NH polls and she did somewhat poorly against DeSantis in her one-on-one debate with him, so why risk it? DeSantis has rightly called her on this:

Making his case to host Wolf Blitzer and an audience of New Hampshire voters, including registered Republicans and undeclared voters, DeSantis made the point that he is the sole remaining candidate who hasn’t refused to show up and debate his opponents.

He said at this point he was the only one not running a “basement campaign.” Good point, but I don’t know if this will help him. That link to the DeSantis talk has some interesting remarks of his about many other things, such as baseball and why he joined the military.

As I’ve said many times, though, I believe Trump will be the nominee. Will Biden be his party’s nominee? I continue to think it more likely than not because a mechanism for removal and a good replacement hasn’t been found. And to those who say “Michelle Obama,” I say that if she had wanted to run she’d have run in 2020 instead of Joe.

I’ve read here and elsewhere that Trump might pick Elise Stefanik as his running mate. I think that would be a good choice, but I have no idea what he’s thinking.

This is an amazing hostage story

The New Neo Posted on by

Please watch. It’s not long.

All the hostages were not kept under the same circumstances or by the same people, so there was and is some variation their experiences – plus of course the variation in their personalities prior to being taken hostage. This young woman seems to have drawn on a source of strength that she may or may not have exhibited prior to her becoming a hostage. Perhaps her captor was also less hardened and sadistic to begin with than many other captors. But for whatever reasons, she was able to project some unusual quality of – for want of a better word, I’ll use her captor’s word – light in the darkness.

The Iowa caucuses

The New Neo Posted on by

So, let’s see.

Were there any surprises? If you look at the poll averages and then at the results, the only real surprise was that DeSantis did better than expected and came in second.

Does it matter? Because DeSantis and Haley were nevertheless close in Iowa (Vivek closed up shop after his poor showing), I doubt either will drop out right now and that means they’ll go into New Hampshire and split the non-Trump vote. Polls in New Hampshire indicate that Trump wins, although in the 40s rather than the 50s, Haley is a very strong second, and DeSantis way behind. However, the polls include Christie and Vivek, both of whom are now gone from the race. Will that change much and help DeSantis? Perhaps a little, but probably not a lot.

I’m not sure why Haley is doing so well in New Hampshire. However, it’s a quirky state and polling there in recent years hasn’t been especially reliable. But I’m almost sure Trump will indeed do well there, so what does second place even matter – not just in New Hampshire but in general? After all, I don’t think Trump would be influenced when picking his running mate, whom I believe will come from the ranks of people who have not run against him in 2024. And I also believe that the only way he loses the nomination is if something catastrophic happens that means he is unable to run, or voters desert him in droves. The former is more likely than the latter; Trump’s voters are especially loyal. It is only if Trump is unable to continue running that the second-place finisher might end up being the nominee, if Trump’s delegates turn to him or her. But that possibility, however remote, is why I think both DeSantis and Haley will continue to duke it out for that second-place spot until their monies run out.

I keep reading that Trump set some sort of record, getting the “largest margin of victory at the caucuses, surpassing Dole’s hold of 18% in ’96 (Trump was up nearly 30% compared to the next candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis).” But that’s an absurd comparison. There’s no equivalent to 2024 and Trump for two simple reasons. The first is that usually there are more candidates at this point, and more candidates ordinarily makes it harder for any one of them to amass a really strong lead. The second and probably far more important reason is that Trump is close to the position of being an incumbent. He is a former president with a record of accomplishment that has earned the loyalty of his supporters, who are very very loyal indeed. To compare him to other candidates in previous years is a poor analogy.

The Iowa caucuses are today

The New Neo Posted on by

The outcome seems to me to be a foregone conclusion.

But you can talk about it all here. Or the weather, which is very cold in Iowa today.

Or this song:

I saw the original Broadway production as a very young child and developed quite a crush on Robert Preston. I was attracted to his energy.

COVID: looking back

The New Neo Posted on by

Fauci’s been testifying that some of the social distancing recommendations for COVID were based on nothing much:

The idea was everyone staying six feet away from each other would slow the virus spread.

From that flowed the “need” to close businesses, shut schools, and generally immiserate average Americans.

Yet, per Fauci (in Wenstrup’s words), the 6′ guidelines “sort of just appeared” without meaningful scientific input and “likely not based on scientific data.”

Looking back, I found this old post of mine from quite early in the pandemic, mid-April of 2020. In it I wrote:

Personally, I’m all for the continuation of a certain amount – a milder amount – of social distancing. And in particular, since I’m in a high risk group because of age and a pre-existing condition, I plan to be fairly strict with myself. But that has nothing to do with what should happen in the larger society. I wouldn’t advocate a bunch of parades, of course. But I believe businesses need to reopen and people need to get back to something approximating regular commerce and regular life, and it needs to happen pretty soon in most places.

It is possible that there are huge costs in terms of illness, but it is virtually certain there are huge costs as well in keeping things closed. Those latter costs are not just economic, either. They can and probably will impact on physical and mental health as well, with people shut in and worried about their livelihoods, taking it out on each other in many instances, drinking, not exercising, overeating, becoming depressed, and not tending to other medical needs.

The “Israel commits genocide” club

The New Neo Posted on by

Years ago – certainly by the time of Durban in 2001 – it became more clear that most third-world countries and NGOs had an enormous animus for Israel:

In 2001, an NGO Forum ran separately from the World Conference against Racism in the nearby Kingsmead Stadium in Durban, from 28 August to 1 September. It consisted of 3,000 NGOs and was attended by 8,000 representatives. The declaration the NGO Forum adopted was not an official document of the conference. The final NGO document called “for the reinstitution of the UN resolution equating Zionism with racism” and “the complete and total isolation of Israel as an apartheid state”.

Note the venue: Durban is in South Africa, the country currently leading the “Israel is committing genocide” pack in the ICJ. Ex-president Jimmy Carter also made his contribution in 2006, with a book he wrote entitled Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid.

It got steadily worse over the years. And then October 7 and its aftermath made the situation crystal clear to anyone paying attention. At this point, not only do the vast majority of third-world countries want Israel and Israelis (and perhaps non-Israeli Jews as well) destroyed, but the leaders of many Western countries are looking the other way or blaming Israel for attacking Gaza in response to 10/7. For the most part, with a few exceptions (Germany being a major one), many European countries are reluctant to take a stand on the ICJ case, wary of trouble from their own sizable Moslem populations.

Here’s an article from Brendan O’Neill in Spiked describing the situation; I’ve bolded a point he makes that I think is highly insightful:

… [T]he West’s woke left laps it up. They’re glued to the ICJ proceedings. They appear to derive a perverse relish from seeing the Jewish State in the dock. They ask not one critical question about the moral credentials of Israel’s accusers, for to do so would muddy the moralistic waters they swim in; it would add irritating complexity to the infantile narrative they have fashioned in which Israel is evil incarnate, and thus anyone who opposes Israel is good. …

These Western activists are as hypocritical as the nation states pointing a blood-stained finger at Israel. In Britain, radical members of Labour are giddily cheering the showtrial at The Hague. …

And I accuse the Western left of being the running dogs of all this global Israelophobia. Of forfeiting their right to be treated as serious moral actors by aligning with the demagogues, Islamists and outright racists who have dragged the world’s only Jewish nation to court on the most trumped-up charge imaginable. Of flagrantly abandoning their supposed commitment to anti-racism by whitewashing Hamas’s orgy of racist violence that gave rise to the current war. And of emboldening the fascists of Hamas by promoting the libel that says Israel is a genocidal state. After all, if Israel is guilty of the worst crime known to man, why should Hamas not attack it again, and again, and again, until the Nazi-like threat it poses to the Palestinian people has been eradicated? I accuse you of giving moral succour to fascists.

And it’s been going on for many many decades.

There’s also this, which lists the overt supporters of South Africa’s case. They’re the gang you’d expect:

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation was one of the first blocs to publicly back the case when South Africa filed it late last month. It said there was “mass genocide being perpetrated by the Israeli defense forces” and accused Israel of “indiscriminate targeting” of Gaza’s civilian population.

The OIC is a bloc of 57 countries that includes Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt. Its headquarters are in Saudi Arabia. The Cairo-based Arab League, whose 22 member countries are almost all part of the OIC, also backed South Africa’s case.

South Africa drew some support from outside the Arab world. Namibia and Pakistan agreed with the case at a U.N. General Assembly session this week. Malaysia also expressed support.

A much smaller group overtly supports Israel: the US, UK, Hungary, Germany, Austria, Guatemala, and the Czech Republic. The NGOs and many other groups, however, are on Hamas’ side:

The [South African] lawsuit has also been supported by hundreds of activist groups, NGOs, political parties, unions, and other organizations, with (as of mid-January 2024) over 1400 showing support in the form of a letter organized by the newly-formed International Coalition to Stop Genocide in Palestine. Some of that letter’s signatories, and other supportive organizations, include [I’ve highlighted a few organizations of particular familiarity or interest]:

Al-Haq
Al-Mezan Center for Human Rights
Amnesty International
Boycott from Within
CodePink [otherwise known as Women for the Violent Rape of Israelis]
De-Colonizer
Democratic Socialists of America
Human Rights Watch
International Jewish Anti-Zionist Network
International People’s Assembly
Israeli Committee Against House Demolitions
Israelis Against Apartheid
Jewish Voice for Peace [one of the most rabidly Israel-hating groups of all; membership is far-far-leftist Jews but also non-Jews]
La Via Campesina
National Lawyers Guild
Nelson Mandela Foundation [Mandela was actually a big supporter of Palestine and Arafat: see this]
New Zealand Labour Party
Palestinian Centre for Human Rights
Palestinian General Federation of Trade Unions
Palestinian NGO Network
Progressive International
RootsAction
People’s Forum
Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom [women again]
World Beyond War
World March of Women [more women]

Of course, nothing the ICJ does has any teeth, and Israel will do what it feels it must do despite the verdict, which is virtually guaranteed to go against it. But the relative isolation of Israel among the nations of the world, and the NGO non-virtue signalers, is an indication of how morally bankrupt most of the world has become.

It’s Martin Luther King Jr. Day

The New Neo Posted on by

What a complex man! Inspirational, courageous, transformative, flawed in his private life. People continue to argue about what he stood for in terms of the relationship between black people and white people, and what he’d be saying about it all if he were alive today at 95. I don’t know the answer, so I’ll just post a famous speech of his:

What’s up with the smiley-voice?

The New Neo Posted on by

We’ve all seen the smiley face. But you probably have also heard the disembodied smiley voice. Why are these ladies – and it always seems to be women, or at least female-sounding AI – so very very happy-happy?

I hear the smiley-voice in recorded announcements all over the place in stores. We’re offering this or that deal!!!!! We’re about to close in 15 minutes, so take your groceries to the checkout aisle!!! These voices have a built-in lilt that makes the speaker sound exceptionally amused in an extremely phony way.

Do you hear them, too? Do they drive you nuts, too?

NOTE: I can’t find examples on YouTube. If you can find one, please post a link in the comments.