For many months I’ve watched the arguments among people on the right as to who should be the GOP presidential nominee in 2024. It’s usually Trump versus DeSantis for the dubious honor of Saving the Republic.
But if the republic is going to be saved, it will take a lot more than one Republican president. That is for certain, for reasons discussed many times here but which can be summarized as the success of the Gramscian March.
Trump ran in 2016 on a promise to switch things up, and he did. But the changes were temporary for the most part, as we’ve seen, and they have been easily undone by the Biden administration. Except for SCOTUS, that is. But the Court’s composition is only a retirement or two under a Democratic president from turning far more to the left. And then there’s the possibility of court-packing if the Democrats get control of Congress and the presidency.
More permanent change towards the right in this country has to come on two levels: the institutional and the personal. That will take time and effort and I’m not sure how it can be done, but although a Republican president is one of the main first steps it’s only a small part of it.
So, for a nominee I think there are several major necessary qualifications. The person must be smart as well as willing to be bold and active in implementing conservative policies. The person must somehow unite the voters on the right behind him and appeal to enough voters in the middle not only to win, but to win beyond the margin of error, which would involve decisive appeal in the swing states.
That person is not Trump – as far as I can see. I could be wrong, but I don’t think so. I cannot imagine him gaining traction with anyone not already supporting him, and that’s not enough. The potentially tragic thing – aside from how successful the left has been in demonizing and harassing Trump, and how at times Trump has played into their hands – is that Trump will almost certainly win the nomination and lose the general.
Those who will vote for him in the primaries anyway have many arguments. One is that he deserves your vote because of what a fighter he is and how very grievously he’s been wronged. I agree that he’s a fighter and that he’s been grievously wronged, but I don’t see why I should vote for a weakened Trump in the primary and therefore help elect Biden or Newsom or whoever the Democrats’ nominee will be.
Another argument used to persuade people to vote for Trump in the primary is that DeSantis is just a tool of the elites. I’ve dealt with that argument many times and find it preposterous. I’m not going to go deeply into it again here, but I refer you to this and especially this, this, and this.
Still another argument made for nominating Trump is that he’s the only person who can beat Biden. This also seems absurd. Polls don’t support it and logic doesn’t support it. It’s early in the game; but again, no one who doesn’t already prefer Trump will end up voting for him, and his bloc seems to be capped at around 46% or so. Plenty of people are unfamiliar with DeSantis and could move towards him in the general if by some chance he should be nominated, and as they see him debate (he’s smart and quick and no loose cannon). These are the people who hate Trump’s style and manner, and who want someone more “presidential.” DeSantis also has youth going for him, which Trump certainly does not.
In addition, some pro-Trump people say that, because of fraud, no Republican will win the general and so we must stand behind Trump on principle because he’s been so persecuted. This seems a very upside-down argument, one that concedes the election before the campaign has even really started. I think we need to reject such defeatist logic. What matters in an election is winning, not giving someone a pat on the back because that person has been wronged. Trump has been wronged, but that’s no reason to nominate him and lose. And yes, if DeSantis were to be the nominee, he would be attacked by the left just as viciously. But I think he’d be smarter about countering the attacks, and I think his personality is such that the attacks would be less likely to stick among the all-important moderate voters.
That doesn’t mean I think that DeSantis would win; the road is going to be very very hard for the eventual GOP nominee whether it’s Trump or DeSantis. But I think DeSantis has more of a chance to win.
However, the feud on the right could end up making it impossible for either man to win. If the Trump wing refuses to vote for DeSantis if he’s the eventual nominee, or especially if Trump runs third-party, there really would be no chance of victory. Unity is something that looks mighty elusive right now – and yet mighty necessary.
ADDENDUM: Please see this from Salena Zito.