The left and Trump-haters say that Trump and the military have no idea what they’re doing in Iran (or anywhere else, I suppose). I don’t think that’s the case, but one thing that does seem true is that Trump and company don’t want the Iranian regime to be able to predict what the US will do.
The left and Trump-haters also say that Trump has yet to make his goals in this war clear. I disagree. He actually has said many times that he wants to degrade the regime’s capacity to make war and eliminate its capacity to make nuclear weapons, plus recover the nuclear material they already have. Oh, and regime change would be very very nice, but is not absolutely necessary.
The left and Trump-haters would like him to fail. I would like him to succeed. Plus I really really would like regime change in Iran as well. But you can’t always get what you want.
Wars are unpredictable.
My sense of things with Iran right now, for what it’s worth, is that Trump continues to play for time while attempting to strangle the regime economically and precipitate a cascade of events that will cause the army and even some of the IRGC to revolt and/or give up. Without those enforcers, the Iranian regime couldn’t survive. He’s reluctant to bomb further because destroying the targets that remain might end up harming the people of Iran more than Trump would like, and so he’s betting – for now, anyway – on the financial pressure doing the trick.
Also – although I haven’t seen anything definitive on this – doesn’t the ceasefire restart the clock on the need for Congressional approval?
This is what’s been happening recently in the war or the “ceasefire”:
Iran continued strikes on the United Arab Emirates for the second day, the country’s Defense Ministry confirmed Tuesday evening.
“The UAE, a key American ally, said it came under attack by Iranian missiles and drones for a second straight day on Tuesday,” the Associated Press reported. “At least three people were wounded in attacks the day before, and a drone sparked a fire at a key oil facility in the eastern emirate of Fujairah.”
The UAE armed forces are “actively engaging” with incoming missile and drone attacks from Iran, the Defense Ministry posted on X, adding that “the sounds heard in scattered areas of the country are the result of the UAE’s air defence systems intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. …
The strikes came hours after the U.S. Navy repelled Iranian attempts to disrupt the operation “Project Freedom,” ordered by President Trump to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, U.S. destroyers secured the waterway and allowed at least two American-flagged cargo ships to sail through the waterway. …
President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the U.S. has effectively dismantled the Iranian navy. “Now they’re reduced to little boats with a machine gun on the front of them because they had a navy of 159 ships!” he said Tuesday evening. “Iran’s Navy is done.”
Make of it what you will.
