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A blog about political change, among other things

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Where’s Larijani?

The New Neo Posted on March 2, 2026 by neoMarch 2, 2026

Taking a leaf out of Hamas’ book?:

The two most powerful officials in Iran have sought refuge in a hospital.

Ali Larijani and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, who are both high-priority targets, have reportedly taken refuge inside a hospital for cover out of fear of being located and targeted.

Both widely seen as wielding the most power in Iran’s leadership after Khamenei’s death.

The Islamic Republic is widely reported to use hospitals and schools as human shields.

Makes sense.

As far as we know, there are no US boots on the ground in Iran and no plan for any. However, it’s Israel that’s been offing the Iranian leaders. There may be Mossad boots on the ground.

Posted in Iran, War and Peace | 5 Replies

The Gulf states are not happy about being attacked by Iran

The New Neo Posted on March 2, 2026 by neoMarch 2, 2026

It’s not just US bases in the Gulf states that are being attacked by Iran:

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Aragchi, has denied targeting his country’s neighbours, telling Al Jazeera: “We are not attacking our neighbours in the Persian Gulf countries, we are targeting the presence of the US in these countries. Neighbours should direct their grievances to the decision-makers of this war”.

Some of the damage to civilian infrastructure in the Gulf states is accidental – resulting from debris falling from intercepted missiles.

But not all.

The number of attacks on airports in Bahrain and the UAE point to more than coincidence.

Iran always made it clear in advance that, if it was attacked, it would retaliate at any country it considered to be complicit in that attack.

As one would imagine, the target states are not happy. Iran seems to want them to blame the US, but they’re not:

“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expresses its rejection and condemnation in the strongest terms of the blatant and cowardly Iranian attacks that targeted the Riyadh Region and the Eastern Province, which were successfully intercepted. These attacks cannot be justified under any pretext,” the statement said.

This is not the first time Iran has attacked its Arab neighbours in the Gulf, either directly or indirectly, but never quite on this scale.

From where I sit – which is far, far away, and not privy to any special information – there’s been no great love lost between Iran and these countries even before these incidents. Although they’re all basically Muslim-majority states, Iran is a Shia country and the others are Sunni-majority countries with varying Shia populations, nations that have thrown their lot somewhat in with the US for years. If Iran’s decision to attack these countries seems counter-productive, it is probably nevertheless done because of a combination of pent-up anger (by an Iranian regime under great pressure), plus the notion that it might deter these states (or others) in the future from consorting with the US. If so, that doesn’t seem to have been a good bet:

The calls, led by the United Arab Emirates from inside the six-country Gulf Cooperation Council, are for the Arab states to act in self-defence against Iran, but it would be a huge step for Gulf leaders in effect to side with Israel in a war that will determine the future shape of the Middle East, probably to the advantage of Israel.

A video meeting of GCC foreign ministers on Sunday made no explicit reference to such a plan but stated the “option to respond to Iranian attacks” to protect regional security and stability remained on the table.

Iran had expended huge diplomatic effort in the past two years trying to convince the Gulf states that Israel, not Iran, is the chief destabilising force in the region, but much of that painstaking work in speeches, conferences, and diplomatic visits appears to have fallen apart in a matter of days.

The first article I linked and quoted is from the leftist BBC and the second is from the leftist Guardian. I don’t think it’s my imagination that both pieces seem more sympathetic to Iran than to any other country in the mix. But I don’t think Iran’s “huge diplomatic effort” was bearing fruit even before this; why would it?

I also wonder how much command and control is left in Iran. Who’s giving the orders? I don’t know, but these figures seem to be gone.

Posted in Iran, Middle East, War and Peace | 3 Replies

Iranian leaders who are reported to be no longer with us

The New Neo Posted on March 2, 2026 by neoMarch 2, 2026

There’s a lot of celebration by the people of Iran, although the joint US/Israel operation is not over, and the mullahtocracy has not fallen.

But here are some prominent people who aren’t giving orders anymore:

In addition to Khamenei, several other senior officials were killed in US-Israeli airstrikes too.

They include Iran’s army chief of staff, General Abdol Rahim Mousavi, and defence minister General Aziz Nasirzadeh.

Also killed was Major General Mohammad Pakpour, who took over as the Revolutionary Guard’s top commander after Israel killed its last commander last June, and Ali Shamkhani, a top security adviser to Khamenei.

Iranian media said Khamenei’s daughter, grandchild, son-in-law and daughter-in-law were killed as well.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) also claimed it had killed:

• Saleh Asadi, head of the Intelligence Directorate of the Khatam al Anbiya emergency command;
• Mohammad Shirazi, head of the military bureau;
• Hossein Jabal Amelian, head of SPND (Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research);
• And Reza Mozaffari-Nia, a former head of SPND and former deputy defence minister. …

Under Iran’s system of vilayat-e faqih – guardianship of the Islamic jurist – the supreme leader must be a senior leader with political and religious authority.

Khamenei’s power was often wielded through close advisers. But it is unclear how many have survived, and he was never publicly recorded as naming a successor.

His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a 56-year-old cleric, has been seen as a possible successor. He has never held government office, however.

I have also read that his son is no longer alive, but I don’t know whether that’s true.

This guy was no longer in office, but he seems to have been eliminated as well:

Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — a polarizing hardliner who became the face of Tehran’s nuclear defiance and incendiary anti-Israel rhetoric — was reportedly killed in Israeli airstrikes at the outset of the military operation inside Iran.

A report by the Israeli media outlet Ma’ariv stated that Ahmadinejad was under house arrest at the time and was killed in a targeted strike on his residence. …

Ahmadinejad served as Iran’s sixth president from 2005 to 2013, rising from relative obscurity as mayor of Tehran to defeat establishment figure Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in a surprise 2005 runoff. …

In 2006, his government hosted a conference in Tehran widely condemned as a platform for Holocaust denial, drawing international outrage.

During a 2005 conference titled “A World Without Zionism,” he quoted Iran’s founding leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, who had referred to Israel as “the occupying regime of Jerusalem” and a “disgraceful cancerous growth” that “must be wiped off the map.” …

His presidency was also marked by an unusual emphasis on Shiite messianic belief in the return of the Hidden Imam, which critics said blurred the line between theology and statecraft.

Internationally, he forged a high-profile alliance with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, framing their partnership as a united front against U.S. influence.

Venezuela. Iran.

Why was Ahmadinejad under house arrest? According to the article, “he clashed openly with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and was repeatedly barred from running for president again.” I assume the reason is connected to that.

Was Ahmadinejad involved in the 1980 US embassy hostage-taking? Perhaps.

By the way, all these assassinations are the result of Israeli action. The US has focused on military targets.

Many of these people are said to have been killed because they were meeting in a group or several groups. Why were they foolhardy enough to do that? Did they figure they wouldn’t be targeted while negotiations were still going on? Maybe. But it also might be the case that they had few alternatives. Cellphones could be tracked – and/or booby-trapped. Pagers? Forget about it. I suppose carrier pigeon or courier might do the trick, but it’s been clear for quite a while that there is an informer (or multiple informers) within the inner circle.

I heard a joke yesterday that the only Iranian leaders left are members of the Mossad, but each doesn’t know the others are agents.

Posted in Iran, Israel/Palestine, War and Peace | 8 Replies

Open thread 3/2/2025

The New Neo Posted on March 2, 2026 by neoMarch 2, 2026

The strange world of coincidence (yes, I know there are a lot of expletives in the clip):

Posted in Uncategorized | 32 Replies

Glimpses through the fog of war in Iran

The New Neo Posted on February 28, 2026 by neoFebruary 28, 2026

Many of those who criticize Trump for the attack on Iran – and there are plenty who do, of course – say some version of “of course the mullahs are evil and need to be destroyed, but what Trump did was wrong.” But they have no suggestions as to what else might have worked, because virtually everything has been tried and nothing has ever worked.

Meanwhile, Trump has shown remarkable courage, as has Netanyahu. We still don’t know whether their courage will pay off in establishing a new and better Iran, less bent on terrorism and destroying (or taking over) its neighbors, and less oppressive of its citizenry. How could we know? But there’s a chance those good things will result, and if the attack hadn’t been tried, Iran would almost certainly have continued on a terrible trajectory that would not only have been destructive to its own people but potentially destructive to the entire world, particularly Israel and the US but also much of the Middle East and the Western nations.

Now for some news of what’s happened there already.

(1) The report is that Khameini and forty other Iranian leaders are dead. But the death of the Supreme Leader isn’t just a rumor. It has been confirmed by Iranian state media:

The Iranian government announced 40 days of public mourning following the “martyrdom” of the 86-year-old ayatollah, who had ruled Iran for over 36 years.

Khameini was part of the original revolutionary crew of mullahs back in 1979, ruling with a repressive and iron hand.

Aarabi also warned that “eliminating Khamenei in isolation on its own is not enough,” calling for a broader strategy aimed at the wider apparatus surrounding the supreme leader.

“You have to dismantle this extensive apparatus that he has created,” he said.

I am sure that Israel and the US are well aware of that, and are trying to manage it. The question is whether they will succeed. But they are on their way. The IDF says that forty Iranian leaders were killed, and Trump says “a large number.” But this is just the first day; more needs to be done, and much remains to be seen.

Among the officials killed were Iran’s Minister of Defense, Head of Intelligence, and the Supreme Leader’s Advisor for Security Affairs and Secretary of the Defense Council.

“The world is a better place without them,” The IDF wrote on X.

(2) Six people have been killed in retaliatory strikes by Iran in nine countries. I am very sorry about those six people, but considering the efforts Iran has made, the number could have been far greater. Most of the Iranian strikes were stopped by air defense systems.

(3) The UN Secretary-General Gutteres condemned the strikes, saying they were “a grave threat to international peace and security.” Of course he did.

(4) Iranians are dancing in the streets – not just in the US, but in Iran:

Iranians were seen dancing and chanting in the streets Saturday morning in video circulating online after “Operation Epic Fury,” which unleashed strikes targeting Iranian leadership.

“I love Trump!” one student shouted as smoke arose from a nearby building, according to a clip shared on X and reported by The Telegraph.

Other footage showed people dancing in the middle of the road — an act of joy that has been criminalized by the Islamic regime since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

Women smiled and twirled as music played and onlookers clapped …

I would assume the great majority of people are staying behind closed doors. But I would also guess that the majority of them are celebrating, too.

(5) Will Iranian terror agents strike in US? They certainly will try, if they can. But there wasn’t much activity after US/Israel strikes in Iran last summer. Let’s hope that they don’t succed at retaliating now.

(6) Mamdani says exactly what you might think he would say, showing he’s both a knave and fool (but you already knew that):

“Today’s military strikes on Iran — carried out by the United States and Israel — mark a catastrophic escalation in an illegal war of aggression. Bombing cities. Killing civilians. Opening a new theater of war. Americans do not want this. They do not want another war in pursuit of regime change. They want relief from the affordability crisis. They want peace,” New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani said in a statement. “I am focused on making sure that every New Yorker is safe. I have been in contact with our Police Commissioner and emergency management officials. We are taking proactive steps, including increasing coordination across agencies and enhancing patrols of sensitive locations out of an abundance of caution. Additionally, I want to speak directly to Iranian New Yorkers: you are part of the fabric of this city — you are our neighbors, small business owners, students, artists, workers, and community leaders. You will be safe here.”

As though Iran hasn’t been at war with us for forty-seven years. As though we are carpet-bombing Tehran, a la WWII. I wonder what he considers “sensitive locations” in New York, in need of protection. I bet they’re not synagogues. And the Iranian New Yorkers he says he will protect are probably beside the themselves with joy right now at Khameini’s fall.

Posted in Iran, Israel/Palestine, Terrorism and terrorists, Trump, War and Peace | Tagged Mamdani | 81 Replies

The attack on Iran has begun [BUMPED UP – scroll down for newer posts]

The New Neo Posted on February 28, 2026 by neoFebruary 28, 2026

[NOTE: I am busy this afternoon for a few hours, but will be adding to this later today. There’s much fast-breaking news at the moment. Meanwhile, I’ve bumped it up and you can scroll down for newer posts.]

The rumors were correct:

The US and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran Saturday morning in response to the regime’s refusal to dismantle its nuclear program after weeks of negotiations — targeting military infrastructure and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound in Tehran.

The attacks — which the Department of War called “Operation Epic Fury” — follow a massive US military buildup in the Middle East and come after President Trump repeatedly warned Tehran that it would face consequences if it didn’t make a deal with the US.

Iran then launched missiles towards Israel in a retaliatory attack as officials claimed the response would be “crushing.”

“Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime,” Trump said in an eight-minute video address on Saturday. …

Airstrikes were also reported in other enclaves, including Isfahan, Qom, Karaj and Kermanshah.

Israeli military officials were prepared for the “initial phase” to last over several days, with the first strikes taking place during the day as a surprise to Iran, Israel’s Channel 12 reported.

Khameini himself is apparently somewhere other than home, as might be expected. He’s supposedly in an “undisclosed secure location.”
I can well believe it.

Trump is clear that he wants regime change, and that it’s up to the people of Iran:

“To the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered, don’t leave your home, it’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, we will take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations,” Trump said.

“For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want, so let’s see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force.

“Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close, within your reach. This is the moment for action, do not let it pass,” he said.

We don’t know the details of what will be happening before we are “finished.” The “we” here includes Israel, which in the past has had excellent intelligence on Iran. I hope that remains the case; do they have any tricks up their sleeve? They’d better. The risk level is high.

There have been retaliatory strikes by Iran against Israel, and against a US naval base near Bahrain, and perhaps other US bases in the Middle East. The extent of any damage isn’t clear.

Posted in Iran, Israel/Palestine | 92 Replies

On the kindness of strangers

The New Neo Posted on February 28, 2026 by neoFebruary 28, 2026

My ex-husband has had Parkinson’s disease for about five years, but it’s gotten considerably worse during the last two years. That’s when I started to notice a phenomenon that has increased over time: people race eagerly to help him.

And I mean race. I’ve seen little old ladies, young people, burly men, people of all shapes and sizes and ages running over to him to offer help when all he’s doing is unloading groceries from his cart or getting out of the car. For a while it puzzled him, and it even puzzled me: why did they perceive him as so very in need of assistance? He really – so far – can usually do all those sorts of things on his own.

But people notice something almost immediately. And they can see it from across a large parking lot, and it apparently telegraphs “help me, please!”. Yes, his hand shakes, and he’s stooped over and walks slowly – he, who used to be so gracefully athletic. But he’s (fortunately) still fairly independent. And yet they notice something, whatever it is.

So I’ve been impressed by how massively kind people are being. It’s really quite extraordinary.

Posted in Health, Me, myself, and I | 18 Replies

During the Biden administration, the FBI recorded a conversation Susie Wiles had with her lawyer

The New Neo Posted on February 28, 2026 by neoFebruary 28, 2026

Does this surprise you? I have to say, sadly, that it doesn’t surprise me:

The FBI, under President Joe Biden, subpoenaed the phone records of Susie Wiles, President Donald Trump’s [current] chief of staff, and [current] FBI Director Kash Patel when they were private citizens.

The subpoenas came out when Smith investigated Trump for allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election and hiding classified information at Mar-a-Lago.

The most significant part of the story, which Reuters buried, is that two FBI officials said that the agency wiretapped and recorded a call between Wiles and her attorney in 2023.

The attorney supposedly consented to the FBI recording the call.

According to Marc Caputo of Axios, the lawyer denies the claim, saying he never gave permission for anyone to record the phone call.

A call between lawyer and client is privileged. And in this case, neither the lawyer nor Wiles waived privilege – which I believe only the client can waive, anyway. Plus, this seems very much like a fishing expedition.

Shocking – but as I said, unsurprising. We’ve grown used to these violations. And we’ve also grown used to there being no consequences for those who commit them.

Posted in Law, Liberty | 6 Replies

Republican prosecutors and firearm deaths

The New Neo Posted on February 28, 2026 by neoFebruary 28, 2026

Interesting report of a study on crime that shows the following:

Our key result shows that narrow election of a Republican local prosecutor leads to a reduction in all-cause mortality among the most criminal justice-involved demographic: young men ages 20 to 29 years old. This reduction is meaningful (9.8 fewer deaths per
100,000, or a 6.6% reduction) and conforms with the well-documented fact that criminal activity tends to peak in one’s twenties and decline quickly thereafter (Rocque et al., 2015). We then show that the mortality reduction is concentrated in deaths involving firearms, and heterogeneity analysis indicates a large reduction in firearm homicides among young Black men and a smaller reduction in firearm suicides/accidents among young White men. In relation to the opioid crisis, we find no evidence that narrow election of a Republican prosecutor affects overall drug or opioid overdose mortality among any demographic groups.

Some of this is what we might suspect; after all, Republican prosecutors probably are more aggressive about charging and convicting criminals, and locking up criminals would tend to reduce crime, even though the left might have you think that the best way to reduce crime is to get a bunch of social workers to speak soothingly. But the details are somewhat odd. When I first saw that “narrow election” of GOP prosecutors reduces firearm deaths, I wondered whether it held true just for murder or whether it also applied to suicides. I vaguely remembered learning long ago in some sociology class that suicides form the majority of gun deaths. It turn out that is still true:

[In 2023, for] the third straight year, gun suicides reached a new high: 27,300, or 58% of all gun deaths, were suicides. And more than half of all suicides in 2023 involved a gun. …

The report notes that suicides accounted for the majority of all firearm deaths every year since 1995.

What is a “narrow election”? I assume it’s a close election. Perhaps in places where GOP candidates win prosecutor elections by large margins, gun deaths are already lower.

But why would a GOP prosecutor’s “narrow election” make the number of suicides by gun be reduced? I don’t know. And why would the effect happen only among young white men? Is it just gun suicides that go own, or do all suicides go down? Well, the suicide rate in general is higher in white people than in black people. This is not a new phenomenon; it’s another thing I learned in college classes. Here are some recent staistics:

In 2023, men died by suicide 3.8 times more than women.

White males accounted for 68.13% of suicide deaths in 2023.

In 2023, firearms accounted for 55.36% of all suicide deaths. …

In 2023, among both males and females, Whites had the highest U.S. age-adjusted suicide rate (Male: 25.23 per 100,000; Female: 6.53 per 100,000). Suicide rates were much lower among Black or African Americans (Male: 14.59 per 100,000; Female: 3.44 per 100,000) and Asians (Male: 9.71 per 100,000; Female: 3.55 per 100,000).

When I was in college I did a big research report on suicide for a course I took, and I had to present the findings to the class and answer questions. So I had to know my statistics, and I recall that all these patterns were present back then: the sex, age, and race differentials. I’m surprised the trends have been so stable.

Posted in Law, Violence | 2 Replies

Open thread 2/28/2026

The New Neo Posted on February 28, 2026 by neoFebruary 28, 2026

Yes indeed, February is the shortest month. Whoosh! It just went by.

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Replies

Fetterman will not become a Republican

The New Neo Posted on February 27, 2026 by neoFebruary 27, 2026

He says so. And I believe him. He has few commonalities with GOP policies. But what he does have is some sort of integrity of the sort Democrats used to have long ago when I was a child. He doesn’t name-call Republicans, and he often says common-sense things.

That does not mean he has any intention of switching parties. His stance also is a way to keep favor with voters in Pennsylvania, which – unlike so many large states – is not blue.

Posted in Liberals and conservatives; left and right, Politics | 9 Replies

The left now ♥ Tucker Carlson on Iran

The New Neo Posted on February 27, 2026 by neoFebruary 27, 2026

Ace discusses how Tucker Carlson – who is totally against any sort of action against Iran – has now become the darling of the left (such as Ben Rhodes) on this issue.

Of course he has. I’ve noticed myself how the pro-Carlson commenters to his YouTube videos (be they bots or be they actual people) frame any US attack on Iran as evidence that Trump is Israel’s puppet, and ignore the fact that we have our own reasons for wanting regime change there.

From Ace:

… Tucker Carlson, who is not antisemitic, wants you to know that he is no coward and was not afraid to step into Israel proper …

In explaining that he’s not a coward who is afraid of Israel, he says that he asked the US to tell Israel the exact plane he was on, because this Non-Antisemitic Non-Coward really believed that Israel, which is “fighting a war with seven different countries,” was plotting to shoot his airplane out of the sky and then claim they thought it was an “Iranian Drone,” and he wanted Huckabee to tell them specifically he was on this plane so that Israel could not murder him by anti-aircraft missile and then pretend they didn’t know.

He cites the totally non-antisemitic USS Liberty trope to show that Pefidious Jews love doing that kind of thing. (He continues insisting Israel knew it was an American ship, even though the NSA has released intercepted radio transmissions showing that Israel had identified the ship as Egyptian.)

The hate-Israel group is very very big on the Liberty incident and ignores all the evidence that Israel attacked the ship by mistake and has made amends. Carlson cites the incident quite a bit, always indicating (falsely) that it’s a well-known fact that Israel knew it was a US ship. Carlson referenced this during his recent interview with Mike Huckabee, also saying that Israel is the world’s “most violent country,” as though Israel has been the aggressor in its wars against those who continually attack its citizens. (I watched much of the lengthy Huckabee interview and hope to write about it soon. But for now, suffice to say there’s a reason some people call him “Liar Tuck.”)

Ace writes, in that same post:

Tucker Carlson got sick of being called antisemitic by the perfidious Satanic Jews who drink Christian babies’ blood, and so he reached out to one of these Jewish Mind-Controllers to ask him how he could convince the Worldwide Jewish Conspiracy to stop calling him antisemitic.

This particular Perfidious Jew, Yoram Hazony, told him he could start by ending his constant claims that Jews are engaged in a constant aggression against Christians and start all the wars in the world for no reason at all except to spread the Nefarious Jew Conspiracy.

Tucker Carlson then said, “Short of that, I mean.”

Or words to that effect. Tucker did not want to stop accusing Jews of conspiring against Christians, he just wanted the Jews to stop noticing he can’t stop accusing Jews of conspiring against Christians.

[ADDENDUM:

I think people who haven’t watched Tucker in the last year probably haven’t a clue how loathsome (a good word for him) he’s become. People who do imitations of him, such as the brilliant Ami Kozak, may seem as though they’re exaggerating wildly, but it’s actually only a tiny bit if at all.

Tucker is not only loathsome, he’s a dangerous man because he trades on his previous reputation and uses it now to spread Jew-hating lies, and he does so while claiming to be a Christian and to be working for Christianity.

Candace Owens does something similar, but what she says about Jews is even worse, and her previous reputation wasn’t as good.]

[ADDENDUM II:

For those of you who are wondering “what happened to Tucker Carlson?”, I suggest you read my 3-part series on the subject, particularly the first part.
Part I can be found here.
Part II can be found here.
Part III can be found here.]

Posted in Israel/Palestine, Jews, War and Peace | Tagged Tucker Carlson | 20 Replies

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