Some say the world will end in fire, some say in ice

The New Neo Posted on by

Gerard Vanderleun provided the following US weather map yesterday. If you study it, you’ll see it was much colder than usual in the entire country:

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It’s easy to quip that this puts the lie to global warming. It doesn’t quite do that, not yet: weather is weather, and climate change is something that only happens over the long haul. But this map sure is mighty suspicious—as is the cold weather we’ve been having for quite some time now.

Me being me, it also puts me in mind of Frost. The poet, that is, not the icy stuff—although I’ve been thinking about that, too:

FIRE AND ICE

Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.

A seemingly simple poem, almost on the order of “Roses are red/Violets are blue,” “Fire and Ice” is another of those verses I was required to memorize in junior high school. But it’s a gift that keeps on giving; the poem is complex as only Frost’s “simplicity” can be.

Fire and ice, take your pick. The common denominator in the poem is destruction—and intensity. And this in turn puts me in mind of an old Twilight Zone episode—what else? You know, the one in which the world is coming to an end because the earth is unaccountably and mysteriously moving too close to the sun, causing even the paint on the artist’s canvas to melt.

It was entitled “The Midnight Sun,” and featured a lot of realistic-looking sweating, the aforementioned painting that oozed (that’s the visual I remember best), and a thermometer that climbed to 140 degrees and then broke. In November, 1961, when it first aired, this was all plenty scary.

Being the Twilight Zone, of course the story had a twist. The main character, a female artist, turned out to only have been dreaming. She had a fever. You see her in bed at the end, and it’s snowing outside. The sense of relief the viewer feels is palpable. Ah, snow! Cold! Deliverance!

And then, and then—you learn that although she’s been dreaming, the “fire and ice” connection is there; it’s only the details that were wrong. The world is coming to an end, the earth has changed it’s orbit—but it’s veering too far away from the sun, not too near. Humans are freezing to death.

Feeling deflated? You ain’t seen nothing yet

The New Neo Posted on by

We don’t want to experience runaway inflation. But beware its opposite, deflation, which now threatens (see also this).

What’s so bad about lowered prices? Plenty, at least potentially. Too broad a decline can lead to lessened salaries that then become inadequate to meet fixed costs such as mortgages. Another danger is a rise in unemployment, as businesses lay off workers to cut costs.

Is this just a case of the NY Times being its usual scaremonger (or deflated, if you prefer) self? If so, it’s certainly not alone; Google “deflation” and you’ll get a host of worrisome stories from around the world. Here’s a Canadian sample:

Deflation is a problem Canadian policy-makers haven’t had to face in decades.

“I think it’s an economist’s, a central banker’s, just about anybody’s worst nightmare,” said Craig Wright, the Royal Bank’s chief economist.” True deflation – a general, sustained decline in prices – comes about alongside a very ugly economic environment.”

Like most of you, I’m greatly enjoying the lowered gas prices. If the decline is limited to that sector, that’s not so much of a problem. But watch out for falling prices across the board.

And this development is certainly not a good sign.

No room at the inn—or on the airplane?

The New Neo Posted on by

Is anyone else trying to travel over the holidays? Anyone else having trouble?

My already-rescheduled flight, due to leave this evening, was unceremoniously (and unapologetically) canceled last night by the airline, which informed me via a terse email with the eye-catching title: “your canceled flight.”

I know there are much worse things; this is an the nature of an inconvenience. But we have grown used to (and fond of) the conveniences of modern life, including the ability to magically cross the country in a single evening while nodding to the rhythm of our ipods or gazing at mini-TVs with glazed eyes . In fact, we rely on it, to visit far-flung friends and loved ones. But this particular cancellation was especially difficult because (a) weather in both places was supposed to be fine at the time of the flight, and (b) alternatives have dwindled down to a precious few, if that.

Yes, everyone’s in pretty much the same boat—or bus, or train, or plane—or not, as the case may be. The weather has been extraordinarily harsh in so many areas of the country that travel is affected even in cities that should be clear. In the case of my erstwhile flight, the problem appeared to be a crew and a plane that could not be gotten from point A to point B in time for the flight and in accordance with regulations.

Ordinarily this would not be a problem; a person could just go the next day. But I have never seen so few available flights as now. And the ones that are have prices that sound almost funny: two thousand dollars to get from coast to coast, making three stops along the way, and on Christmas Day? Sure, why not—sounds like a bargain.

Actually, now that I’ve vented sufficiently, I will say that yesterday evening I managed to find an alternative far more reasonable, although it does involve the now-obligatory stop and plane change. Hopefully, the weather will cooperate.

So this Christmas season, may everyone’s travel plans go without a hitch. May you get all the presents you want—and also that most special present of all, the presence of those you love.

Here’s to the full length down jacket

The New Neo Posted on by

It has been so cold, snowy, and blustery these last couple of days that I’ve resorted to wearing a garment I only reserve for the most trying of times, weatherwise: my full-length down coat, a Michelin-like affair that encases me in puffiness from neck to knees, and it makes it harder to get into the car and out again.

But oh, is that thing warm and toasty. Everyone in northern climes should have one. Fashion? What’s that?

A beverage breakthrough for neo-neocon

The New Neo Posted on by

Congratulate me, folks. Even though I’m basically a party-pooper nondrinker, I have finally found a wine I like.

It’s called “Malbec” and is primarily from Argentina:

In France it is generally a grape used for blending, with very little vine being devoted to its improvement or success. The story in Argentina is quite the opposite. Malbec has found renewed acclaim and initial glory in the sun-drenched climate of Argentina. This is Argentina’s signature grape and it is quickly making a new name for itself with red wine lovers….Malbec is typically a medium to full-bodied red wine. Ripe fruit flavors of plums and blackberry give it a jammy characteristic. The tannins are typically a bit tight and the earthy, wood-like appeal makes for a fairly rustic wine.

Well, I guess I like my wines rustic, earth, and jammy. Who knew?

Blah blah blah says Blago

The New Neo Posted on by

As you probably know, Illinois governor Blagojevich made a speech yesterday in which he conceded nothing and stated his intention to fight “until I take my last breath.”

He also quoted that useful old chestnut, Kipling’s “If.” He says the forces arrayed against him are a “lynch mob,” even though it seems Blagojevich himself handed them the rope, as well as the scaffold from which he could be hung.

How is it that he can continue to proclaim his innocence with a straight face? Well, it’s true that, because the sting ended early, he never actually was able to sell Obama’s seat to the highest bidder.

Never underestimate the power of denial, egotism, and narcissism, as well. And, in a rare but interesting career path for a politician, it turns out the Blogajevich is also a former boxer. Well, the fighter still remains.

Is it winter yet?

The New Neo Posted on by

In New England, the fact that the calendar-based beginnings and endings of the seasons rarely seem to line up with the actual changes in the weather is often cause for snickering.

Fall begins before the leaves turn. And spring? Don’t even go there—it’s still winter whenever it arrives. Summer comes closer to the right time. But then there’s that old New England joke that there are two seasons here: winter and the Fourth of July.

Well, although it’s not yet winter (tune in tomorrow for the kickoff day), we are certainly proving the truth of that old saying. And this time it’s no joke. It’s been winter, winter, winter, for quite some time now, no matter what the calendar says.

The ice storm last week was so traumatic—a few unlucky people are still without power—that we start the season in a depleted state. And now this weekend comes a large storm sandwich: a big one yesterday from which everyone is digging out, as flurries continue to fly; and one tomorrow.

Tomorrow’s is particularly worrisome. It will begin as snow in most of New England and change to rain in an unpredictable line of—you guessed it—ice. Ice is what tends to cause power outages because the weight of it snaps trees and breaks lines quite readily.

To top it all off, it is the holidays. Right now it’s not beginning to look a lot like Christmas; it does look a lot like Christmas. Only northern New England usually has a white Christmas, typically. But this year all of New England will be able to hum that tune and not just be dreaming.

That’s about the only consolation, as far as I’m concerned. I’m trying to travel to the West Coast for the holidays, and I had to cancel and remake my reservation for Monday, which seems to be one of the few snow-free days predicted in the next week.

Usually I rather like winter in New England. Despite the snow, it is typically very beautiful, and there are many sunny days where the light is especially brilliant. Right now we haven’t had many of those. How about you?

Waiting for the Fairness Doctrine

The New Neo Posted on by

One of the “promises” of the recent campaign has been the threat that the overwhelming nature of the Democrats’ victory would allow them to push their long-held dream of imposing (re-imposing, that is) the Fairness Doctrine.

And now it may indeed come to pass. The idea that it would be a good thing to require every political program that espouses a certain viewpoint to also offer an equal and opposite viewpoint could sound “fair”—if you don’t think it should be left to the marketplace to decide.

It would be different if freedom of speech were involved here—or rather, infringements on it. But that is most definitely not involved. No one is censoring liberal speech, for example, by listening to Rush Limbaugh and deciding that Air America is more boring.

The proposed Fairness Doctrine would function as an extremely muscular and forceful affirmative action (on steroids) for liberal thought, which has not been the subject of discrimination in the first place. Rather, it has had trouble competing for viewers in the radio marketplace against the more lucrative and popular conservative programs.

How “progressive” is this?:

A senior advisor to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told one magazine last year, “Conservative radio is a huge threat and political advantage for Republicans and we have had to find a way to limit it.”

Well, at least it’s honest. Will it be successful? Tune in to see—and hear.

Or not hear, as the case may be.

Bow, bow, to the President-elect

The New Neo Posted on by

Ever since Obama began sporting this sort of sign it’s put me in mind of “The Mikado:”

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In fact, in connection with any sort of governmental and legal ridiculousness, you can hardly go wrong if you think of “The Mikado.” Although Gilbert and Sullivan wrote their satiric masterpiece in 1885, and it was set in a very fanciful Japan, it has never ceased to be relevant to the ways of elected officials in a host of countries, including ours.

For those of you who don’t know the original, here are Gilbert’s lyrics; skip the first two verses, which are a Japanese processional. The song marks the grand entrance of the Mikado, the Emperor of Japan. He’s a pretentious figure, but he’s upstaged—and quite literally shoved aside—by Katisha, his self-styled Daughter-in-law-Elect.

Here is the new version:

BUSH:
From every kind of gent
Gross ridicule I expect;
I’m the outgoing President…

OBAMA:
And I’m the President-elect!
He was the top gun
But now I’m The One,
I’m the President-elect!

BUSH:
My morals have been declared
Particularly incorrect;

OBAMA:
But they’re nothing at all, compared
With those of the President-elect!
Bow, bow,
To the President-elect!

CHORUS:
Bow, bow
To the President-elect.

BUSH:
In a fatherly kind of way
I help each tribe and sect,
In Iraq and Africa they…

OBAMA:
Prefer the President elect!
So eloquence-prone,
Though the rest is unknown,
That’s the President-elect!

BUSH:
My nature is strength and fight
But my freedom from all defect…

OBAMA:
Is insignificant quite,
Compared with the President-elect!
Bow, bow,
To the President-elect!

CHORUS:
Bow, bow,
To the President-elect.

[NOTE: I tried to find a great version of the original on You Tube. But this was the best I could do; it’s nowhere near as good as it should be. But I include it for the curious. The song I am parodying begins around minute 1:00 and ends around minute 2:35.

The Madoff plot thickens

The New Neo Posted on by

The so-called “independent auditor” of Madoff’s Ponzi scheme seems to have been something of a storefront operation. Unbelievable that this didn’t raise red flags.

Oh, wait. Apparently, it did, according to the article. But the red flags didn’t raise any red flags. Maybe the regulators were color blind.

The lack of investigation is partly explained by the overburdening of the SEC inspection system itself:

“There are just so many people out there who are and aren’t registered that it really just overwhelms the system,” [Duke securities law professor] Cox said. “There is no easy way to expand the regulatory net unless we’re willing to put the might of the federal budget behind it to carry out more inspections.”

But, as previously noted, there were bona fide complaints and suspicions registered about Madoff’s scheme (see also this). It makes more sense to me that the failure to regulate may have had more to do with collegiality and reputation:

[Madoff] sat on a committee of academics, regulators and executives formed in 2000 by former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt to advise the agency on new stock-market rules in response to the growth of electronic trading. Madoff has led the trading committee at the Securities Industry Association, Wall Street’s biggest trade group, and served as chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market.

Since 2000, he has given at least $100,000 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and more than $23,000 to the party’s candidates, including Senator Charles Schumer of New York and Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey, who leads a charitable foundation that invested with Madoff.

“You can see where people would pull the shades down over their eyes in terms of recognizing what could be one of the great frauds of our time,” Levitt said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “I’ve known him for nearly 35 years, and I’m absolutely astonished.”

Well, there’s a sucker born every minute, and apparently one of them might be Arthur Levitt. But Madoff was apparently one smooth operator, almost on the order of a world-class spy in his ability to lead a double life and dissemble—and to screw his friends, associates, and clients, which included many large charities.

And fasten your seat belts. Madoff may not be alone. It’s not a coincidence that the Ponzi nature of his hedge fund is emerging now, during the financial crisis. Ponzi schemes rely on relatively good economic times; they collapse if too many people want to pull out their money at once.

That’s exactly what happened to Madoff, and it is likely that it will happen to others who are similarly overextended. In a “bad news, bad news” way, the financial crisis acts as a sort of plaque discloser for such operations.

Whatever Caroline wants, Caroline gets?

The New Neo Posted on by

It came as a surprise to me to hear that Caroline Kennedy is pushing to be appointed as the replacement for New York Senator Hillary Clinton.

I had always been under the impression that Caroline was a quiet and retiring sort, eschewing the public limelight for the more private joys of literature and the arts, philanthropy, and above all family. She was also a person who had learned only too well the perils of political fame. She seemed to step into an official role only reluctantly and intermittently, although with her lineage she could easily have run for office long ago.

Welcome to the new Caroline. Except for her name and her law degree, she appears to lack any particular qualifications for the job, although it must be said that she is a bona fide New Yorker, unlike her late-arrival predecessor Hillary or earlier relative and NY Senator Bobby Kennedy.

Does her lack of experience matter? As Roland Martin points out, Hillary had similarly meager qualifications when she first sought the same office. What Martin fails to mention is that Hillary ran for Senator in an election. It was up to the people to decide if her experience was suitable. An appointment is different, however. That decision is up to one person, not the electorate.

In New York, the situation is compounded by the fact that Governor Paterson himself, the man doing the appointing, only came to be governor because of the wrongdoings of his predecessor, Eliot Spitzer. Paterson, however, already had a long history of elective office in the state, even before being elected Lieutenant Governor and then succeeding Spitzer to the governorship.

There is a certain hubris to the Caroline Kennedy request, an idea that she somehow should not have to pay her political dues at all. Is there a precedent for this? If one looks at previous recent appointees to the Senate—which are quite numerous, by the way—there are at least a few.

If you look at the chart at the link, you will see that most appointees to the Senate have the expected and customary political chops. The list is replete with members of Congress, state legislators, mayors, and the like. But interspersed are several spouses (or other family members) of deceased Senators, and most of these appointees had never held elective office before (Jean Carnahan is a well-known and recent example; Muriel Humphrey is an earlier one I had forgotten).

This seems to be the closest precedent to the Caroline Kennedy caper. Of course, Caroline is not the spouse of Hillary Clinton, nor is Hillary deceased. So the analogy is a very poor one. But the similarity is that Caroline is part of one of the largest and strongest political dynasties in the United States, in which the most influential present member—Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts—does indeed appear to be dying. Thus, her desire to be Senator may reflect more of an intent to replace him than to replace Hillary, and if so her appointment would fit roughly in the traditional mold.

Does this make it a good idea? I actually think Caroline would be up to the task. She’s a smart woman, and I would guess that she is politically astute, based on what she’s observed in her life. But the whole idea of governors appointing Senators sticks in my craw (and that was even before the Blogajevich fiasco), and the appointment of Caroline would be an enormous stretch—almost to the breaking point of what’s reasonable. I’m not a New Yorker anymore, but if I were I would welcome a special election, especially for an office as important as Senator.

Will Caroline be appointed? Sounds as though she’s the current front-runner. It also sounds as though she got the politics bug recently, now that her kids are grown or almost-grown.

And speaking of kids, this is the way I remember her:

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