…so goes the 2010 US election?:
…[I]t does appear to many that within the Obama administration and the Democratic congressional leadership there is the sentiment that America would be a better place if it were more to resemble Western Europe…
And with Western Europe on the ropes, this could provide a political opportunity for the Republicans in the November elections…
Even before the European economic problems surfaced, Republicans were planning on using the debt issue this November to brand Democrats as fiscally irresponsible.
The European economic crisis is likely to make that argument more effective. With other nations in addition to Greece facing severe financial problems because of government overspending, the story isn’t going away any time soon.
This is couched as spin and “story.” But it is much more than that; it’s common sense. People who are looking, and who are not in denial, can easily see the connections between what’s happening in Europe and what is set to happen here, and would like to avoid a similar debacle if we possibly can. And voting Democratic just doesn’t seem to be the best way to go about doing that—in fact, au contraire.
I can’t remember a time when the relevance of European economic events to our own situation was more clear. As the article points out, this is partly a result of the growing (and purposeful) tendency of this country to resemble Europe in its economic policies and its government, especially during the Obama administration. But it is also partly a result of the greater unity of European national economies (the EU and the euro) themselves, partly a result of increasing globalization and interdependence of the entire world, and partly a result of the internet and the more widespread access to information about Europe making it easier to see the trends and resemblances.
The result is that many American voters are paying closer attention to Europe. We don’t want no steenking VAT taxes, either.
Just as in Britain Gordon Brown’s and his party’s lack of leadership and fiscal restraint paved the way for Labour’s decline and the Conservative semi-ascendance, so too do polls here reflect the growing support for the Republican Party.
How strong is that support? If sentiment on this blog is any indication, it’s a mixed bag. On the one hand, practically no one is all that keen on the Republicans, or all that trustful of them. They messed up fiscally when they had control of Congress in the early Bush years. They have their own scandals and corruptions. They often seem to lack leadership and fire in the belly. There are too many RINOs for many people’s tastes. But—and it’s a big “but”—the Democrats have so repulsed so many voters during their days of power, and especially since 2008, that although support for the Republicans is weak, dislike of the Democrats is so strong it ends up making Republican support fairly solid, if only as backlash.
WSJ authors Wallsten, Bendavid, and Spencer report that:
A big shift is evident among independents, who at this point in the 2006 campaign favored Democratic control of Congress rather than Republican control, 40% to 24%. In this poll, independents favored the GOP, 38% to 30%.
Suburban women favored Democratic control four years ago by a 24-point margin. In the latest survey, they narrowly favored Republicans winning the House. A similar turnaround was seen among voters 65 and older.
“This is the inverse of where we were four years ago, and in a way that projects to substantial Democratic losses in November,” Mr. McInturff said.
The new survey gives incumbents of either party little reason for comfort. Only about one in five respondents approved of the job Congress is doing.
And here’s the money quote [emphasis mine]:
Of those who want to see Republicans control the House, less than one-third said that was because they support the GOP and its candidates.
Rather, nearly two-thirds said they were motivated by opposition to Mr. Obama and Democratic policies…
“Both parties do things I disagree with,” Mr. Carter said. “But just to stop what’s going on now, I will vote Republican.”
One of the reasons this sentiment has become so widespread and so powerful is that Democrats don’t get it—or at least they don’t appear to get it. Witness this typical statement by a Democratic pollster quoted in the article:
Mr. Hart noted that, to his own party’s detriment, a series of major news events and legislative achievements””including passage of a sweeping health-care law, negotiating a nuclear disarmament treaty with Russia and making a quick arrest in the Times Square terrorism attempt””has not measurably increased support for Democrats. “A lot has happened,” he said, “but the basic dynamic of the 2010 elections seems almost set in concrete.”
What Mr. Hart doesn’t quite seem to understand is that those “achievements” as defined by the Democrats are seen as the exact opposite by the majority of Americans: debacles, sabotages, or incomplete and flawed policies that avoided being a failure only by chance (in the case of the Times Square bomber, for example, the alert actions of a street vendor, and the last-minute manual check of an updated no-fly list by the airplane staff).
The “lot” that has happened is mostly bad, and if the dynamic of the 2010 elections seems (barring unforeseeable developments) to be set in ever-hardening concrete, it’s because each event has solidified opposition to this administration and underlined its stubborn wrongheadedness—and statements such as Mr. Hart’s only further convince most of us that the Democrats are either incomprehensibly stupid or mendaciously and willfully destructive.
Or perhaps both.
[ADDENDUM: More from George Will.
And bringing home the bacon ain’t what it used to be. Incumbents beware.
Tony Blankley on the kind of Republicans we need. And it’s not the “business as usual” kind.]