There’s a depressing Rasmussen poll out, which everyone says shows the public to be against Governor Walker’s stand on limiting public service unions’ collective bargaining rights.
I wrote “everyone says” because I can’t seem to find the actual poll results themselves—the hard data, that is—which I believe have not been released yet. I linked to Rasmussen’s summary instead, which says that, in a recent telephone survey of Wisconsin “likely” voters, “just 39% favor weakening collective bargaining rights and 52% are opposed.” But see this:
The overall sample for the survey included 30% of union households. That includes 33% with a private sector union member and 60% with a public sector union member.
Additionally, the sample includes 46% who voted for Governor Walker last November and 45% who voted for his challenger Tom Barrett. Walker actually won the election by a 52% to 46% margin.
When I read that sort of thing, I’m inclined to throw up my hands in despair. Only if 60% public sector union households is representative of Wisconsin’s population as a whole is this sort of thing even remotely valid, and the stats for Walker voters in the poll makes its sample doubly suspect. [ADDENDUM: see this.]
The strange thing is that, when Rasmussen has been criticized in the past, the charge has been that it leans more to the right than the left. So, although I tend to distrust polls in general and feel they have an agenda, I can’t quite figure out what the agenda here might be.
Maybe in the future I should just ignore polls. They don’t seem to be worth the trouble of dissecting them or even paying attention. But they do seem to grab attention, since they’re the only tool we have to gauge public opinion.
Ah, public opinion. When Rasmussen lists the questions asked in that poll, the one that grabs my attention is the very first one, “How closely have you followed recent news stories about Governor Scott Walker’s proposals to reduce the state budget deficit?” And even when we get that numbers for the answer (which we don’t have yet), my bet is that people tend to think they’re following closely when they’re not at all.
I’d also love to have seen a quiz accompanying the poll with some questions on what respondents think collective bargaining is. I’d also love to have seen question 11 (“Do you favor or oppose a proposal to weaken the collective bargaining rights of state employees?”) broken down into sections that list those “rights.” Hey, I’d like it not to have used the word “rights” at all, which seems to me to state the case that these are fundamental rights such as life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness, and those embodied in the Bill of Rights.
What’s more, I’d like to have seen a linkage in the question, not just the phrase “weakening of rights” floating in the air like that, untethered to the budget issue. It’s very possible that if I had been asked a question like “Do you favor or oppose a proposal to weaken the collective bargaining rights of state employees?” I might have answered “no,” in the absence of a direct connection to the actual issue involved here, which is the budget. After all, the connection is not readily apparent; how many people who answered the poll have a clue what’s actually being proposed in Wisconsin, and why?
It all comes down to the same thing, over and over: if voters are uninformed, they will be manipulated by others. Our entire system of government rests not only on voters’ common sense, but on their ability to understand what’s going on. Polls not only reflect whatever deficits exist in those traits, they also can exploit them and magnify them.
[NOTE: There’s also this WSJ/NBC poll, which indicates people want to reduce the deficit without cutting Social Security or Medicare. But again, look at what was actually asked.
Respondents were queried on whether they favored making cuts in Social Security to reduce the deficit. If I’d been asked that question, I would have said “no,” too, because I think older people who paid into the system all these years and have relied on it ought to get their money. But cutting those payments is not a Republican proposal right now, anyway; some sort of stepped phase-out is, as well as a change in the age of receiving benefits which is supported by the poll. So why ask the question that way?
I don’t think it’s because the pollsters don’t know what they’re doing.]
[ADDENDUM: It doesn’t sound as though Governor Walker is too terribly cowed by the polls.
And I’ve just noticed the use of the term “fleebaggers” to describe the AWOL Wisconsin Senate Democrats. Clever.]