A lot of people think Joe Biden will somehow be “retired” from the 2024 election, and someone like Newsom will run instead. And although I think that’s a distinct possibility, I am far from thinking it’s a done deal.
Because – how do you solve a problem like Kamala (cue music)?
Commenter “Jerry” writes:
I think you are overestimating how big an obstacle Kamala is to a Newsom nomination (in the event that Biden “decides” to not run).
She was such a loser in 2020 that she dropped out practically in the same speech she announced her candidacy. She’s gotten no better. Plus there is already at least one viable, if odious to many, opponent declared. The party also finds that other candidate odious but fears he could easily defeat Harris. So Newsom is “invited” to run and Kamala is off the stage by the second debate.
Yes, there will be some half-hearted grumbling about another white men only primary but that will fade quickly with a few public and private consolation prizes.
That seems to be a popular opinion on the right, but it’s not my opinion. I don’t think the grumbling will be half-hearted.
Of course, some Democrats would be relieved to see Kamala go. But for others I believe that she has too many intersectional pluses: that is, she is female and black (her Indian heritage isn’t as much of an advantage as those two, but it does solidify her position even further as a “person of color”). Pushing her aside will be a trigger for rage for quite a few Democrats, I believe, either female or black or both – and that’s a sizable proportion of the Democrat constituency. And they’re not the only ones.
But most importantly, she is already VP; not only that but she’s the very first female VP. Historic! Also the first black VP, although that’s not quite as historic because we’ve already had a black president. I think a sizable number of Democrat voters will feel that she shouldn’t have to be in a presidential debate against other candidates for the presidency. She should be the obvious choice if Biden “retires.” If she’s booted out because she performs poorly, I think a lot of people on the left will be quite angry.
The Democrat leadership – whomever is plotting the course – will have to figure out a way around that, and I don’t think it will be all that easy.
Also, I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again: I think Joe himself will not go gentle into that good night. As a very young man, he decided he would and should be president, and now he has that prize. He will not give it up easily, although they may indeed figure out a way to force him to do so. But I think Biden himself is a more formidable obstacle than most people credit.
From a post I wrote in April of 2020:
But what does Joe Biden want, and why would he think that he’s the man to do it? Is he running merely to stop Trump? That certainly wasn’t true in his previous bids. To bring a divisive America together? But on that score he offers nothing but intermittent and lukewarm lip service. Not rhetoric, not energy, not unity, not a record of achievement, nothing but the desire to be president. one he’s had since he was a very young man:
“When [Biden] first met [future wife] Neilia’s mother, she asked what he wanted to do for a living. Biden informed her he intended to become president of the United States.”
Biden had met wife-to-be Neilia when he was 22 years old and married her at 24, so this encounter with his future mother-in-law must have occurred during those years between 22 and 24. That’s how early he had the ambition to be president, and had not only formed the notion but it was firm enough that he was willing to state it to his future in-law as a solid intention and qualification to marry her daughter.
Biden has lost quite a bit of cognitive power over the years. But I don’t think he’s lost a single ounce of ambition and narcissism.