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The New Neo

A blog about political change, among other things

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So, would you ever wear the ring again?

The New Neo Posted on August 9, 2011 by neoAugust 9, 2011

I don’t think I would.

Posted in Uncategorized | 6 Replies

The plan for the attack on Romney

The New Neo Posted on August 9, 2011 by neoJune 7, 2012

This is news?

Barack Obama’s aides and advisers are preparing to center the president’s reelection campaign on a ferocious personal assault on Mitt Romney’s character and business background, a strategy grounded in the early-stage expectation that the former Massachusetts governor is the likely GOP nominee.

Naturally. And if so, no doubt the MSM will cooperate fully in disseminating the damaging information—the flip side of the coverup they performed on Obama’s dirty linen in 2008.

But the following quote amused me; don’t Obama’s campaign people realize who they’re also describing?

Obama officials have made “weirdness” an epithet for Romney the way they tagged John McCain “erratic” in the fall of 2008 after the Arizona senator suddenly left the campaign trail and nearly backed out of the first debate as part of an attempt to get a deal on the bailout…

“It’s not just a matter of dodging the debate, not just a matter of flip-flopping and putting his finger to the wind ”” it is that he’s not comfortable in his own skin, and that gives people a sense of unease,” added a Democratic consultant expected to be involved in the reelection campaign.

Posted in Obama, Romney | 15 Replies

Obama and the debt/downgrade crisis: why should anyone be surprised?

The New Neo Posted on August 9, 2011 by neoAugust 9, 2011

The debt crisis is not only a crisis for the country and the world, but for Barack Obama. I’ve noticed that he seems more tentative and cliche-ridden than ever, and that more and more of his erstwhile defenders are growing tired of his leaderless leadership. My sense is that he’s lost at least some of his boundless self-confidence; these events may have shaken him like nothing else in his life ever has before.

But I’m wondering why any of his supporters would be surprised at his passive behavior in the face of the growing crisis. After all, it is highly consistent with his words and actions (or rather, inaction) when the whole thing blew up back in the fall of 2008. Then he was Democratic-nominee Obama, and was widely lauded for his calm demeanor in the face of the financial crisis, especially as compared with what was seen as McCain’s noisy but impotent flailing.

This is what I noted at the time:

Obama is keeping mum on the details of what he thinks of all the financial plans swirling around lately, or what he would propose if he were President in these trying times.

If you’re already an Obama fan you probably think this is evidence of his lofty post-partisan superiority as well as his depth of thought. And perhaps it is. But this would be easier to believe if he didn’t have such a long history of protecting himself””and his status as a blank slate on which people can project their dreams””from commitment.

Obama has historically had two methods of accomplishing this. The first is taking so many stands that he can later claim he actually took the right one, and have the quotes to “prove” it. The second is similar to what he’s doing now: generalized platitudes and then silence on the specific issues (or, in the Illinois Senate, voting “present”). Obama has made a career out of being either a shifting target or a vaporous one.

Procrastination such as this is not such a stupid move in the strategic sense. Get your enemies to commit, criticize what they say, and see how the wind is blowing before you take your stand. Better yet, maybe you’ll never have to take a position, because events have a way of moving along and people have a way of forgetting once a new issue rears its head.

It may even be an excellent tactic to win an election””and in this case Obama assumes he has the advantage in any downtown in the economy, before he even opens his mouth. So, why ruin a good bad thing?

But an election is just the first step; after the inauguration, Presidents have to lead.

Fast forward to now. Dana Milbank observes:

A familiar air of indecision preceded President Obama’s pep talk to the nation…The most powerful man in the world seems strangely powerless, and irresolute, as larger forces bring down the country and his presidency…

Various reporters tried to elicit more information [from Jay Carney after the President’s speech] about Obama’s economic plans and deficit-reduction proposals, but Carney declined again to take the lead.

“I don’t want to get too far ahead of the process,” he explained to the Wall Street Journal’s Laura Meckler, adding that Obama “will be contributing to that process, not driving it or directing it.”

“Why?” inquired Politico’s Glenn Thrush. “He’s the leader of the free world. Why isn’t he leading this process?”

That is the enduring mystery of Obama’s presidency.

I beg to differ with Milbank. It is not a mystery, it is a character trait, one Obama has had all his life. Those who didn’t see it before weren’t looking.

Posted in Uncategorized | 21 Replies

Meanwhile, in the rest of the world, things fall apart—the London riots

The New Neo Posted on August 9, 2011 by neoAugust 9, 2011

The other day I was talking with friend, comparing the present feeling of unrest to the turmoil of the late 60s. We agreed that both times were tumultuous, but she thought things were worse now. I said I wasn’t sure; maybe they were just different. Remember the assassinations and the cities burning with riots and racial tension? Much of the time it seemed like a major conflagration was imminent, although this turned out to not be true.

As you might imagine, we never resolved the issue. But I thought of the conversation again when I read about the riots in London.

Everyone is trying to figure them out. Are they racially-inspired, class-inspired, or just an eclectic bunch of destructive and marauding youths having a fine old time?

The rioters aren’t telling. The original riots began as an outgrowth of peaceful protests in Tottenham, a neighborhood in which 29-year-old Mark Duggan had been killed by police, but they escalated to seemingly random violence in Tottenham and many other areas around the city, in a bunch of copycat actions that appear to have been helped by coordination through social media.

But the fact that no one knows why this is happening doesn’t stop the left from analyzing the psyches of the rioters and telling us what’s really bothering them. Mary Riddell, for example, says it’s not a race thing:

The second alleged culprit is ethnicity. But, as David Lammy, Tottenham’s MP, has said, these are no race riots. The Eighties uprisings at Broadwater Farm, as in Toxteth and Brixton, were products, in part, of a poisonous racism absent in today’s Tottenham, where the Chinese grocery, the Turkish store and the African hairdresser’s sit side by side.

Perhaps that’s true; many have pointed out the diverse nature of the neighborhoods involved and of the rioters, although this writer draws attention to a history of racial unrest among Tottenham’s “Afro-Caribbean population.” Like many on the left, Riddell is blaming income inequality; the following statement—especially the phrase “creamed off”—expresses her assumption (typically shared by the left) that income is a zero sum game:

In the bubble of the 1920s, the top 5 per cent of earners creamed off one-third of personal income. Today, Britain is less equal, in wages, wealth and life chances, than at any time since then

Then there’s this by Nina Power, who mentions “the division between the entitled and the dispossessed.” “Dispossessed,” of course, implies that members of the underclass have had what should have rightfully been theirs confiscated by others. Her solution: Britain isn’t leftist enough; more income redistribution is needed.

Of course, as is so often the case with urban riots, the perpetrators aren’t doing what you think they’d do if Power’s thesis (protesting income inequality) were correct—although I suppose that stealing and looting is a crude form of income redistribution. But these “youths” are burning their own neighborhoods, which is so often the modus operandi for riots.

To many, these riots appear to be an expression of nothing more or less than lawlessness and mob vandalism. Labour MP Diane Abbott—who happens to be black, and who therefore might have more dispensation to tell the truth—called it this way:

Cuts don’t turn you into a thief. What we saw was people thieving for hours. Mr Umunna [another black Labour MP] said the violence in London was “totally opportunistic and utterly unacceptable.”

Although opportunistic, the rioters are quite organized all the same, getting in touch with each other by Blackberry and Twitter, and wearing masks to protect themselves from being identified later:

A…tweet said “come we go rob Mare Street Primark” while another said: “JD Spots [sic] Mare Street giving away tracksuits. Help your self..”

One user of the microblogging site wrote: “Chaos on Mare Street: police stand by doing nothing, whilst ”˜protesters’ steal from local shops. You should both be ashamed of yourselves.”

It’s not clear whether those police standing by are armed or not; some London police do bear arms, as the original provocation of the Duggan shooting demonstrates. But although firing on a crowd would be a shocking and extreme act (although some people in the comments section of British newspapers are angry enough at what’s occurring to advocate it), what’s wrong with tear gas or other similar crowd control techniques?

This article describes the police as powerless and outnumbered:

Many of the areas targeted last night seemed to have little police presence. But the violence and looting thrived even where riot officers were deployed as police appeared largely outnumbered and powerless to act…

Residents accused the police of abandoning them. Matthew Yeoland, 43, a teacher from Peckham, where property was set ablaze, said: “It’s like a war zone and the police weren’t doing anything. There were too many people and not enough police.”

The riots are so widespread that the police seem overwhelmed by the sheer numbers. Whether their hands are also tied by policy restrictions, or inadequate training, or both, is unclear from reports I’ve read. What is clear is that their response has failed to get the violence under any sort of control, and that law-abiding citizens are furious:

Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, heard during a visit to Tottenham that locals felt police had deserted them. “There was nobody there to protect us,” one resident told him…

Police have already admitted that they had no choice but to allow looters to steal from high street shops on Saturday evening as they had to focus their attention on the dozens of burning buildings and rioting in Tottenham.

Former Met commanders said the riots were unprecedented in their sporadic and spontaneous nature.

Brian Paddick, the former deputy assistant police commissioner who was a sergeant during the Brixton riots in the 1980s said: “We have not faced this situation before.”

The general sense is of thing falling apart, the center not holding. I’m quoting the poem “The Second Coming” by Yeats, which I’ve quoted many times before here. It seems especially apropos now, so here’s the whole thing—again:

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

[ADDENDUM: They’re considering employing water cannons to subdue the crowds. But the London police are not trained in their use.]

[ADDENDUM II: This sort of thing reminds me of the following:

[ADDENDUM III: As always, Richard Fernandez at Belmont Club has much of interest to say.]

Posted in Poetry, Race and racism, Violence | 57 Replies

Did S&P make an error (redux)?

The New Neo Posted on August 9, 2011 by neoAugust 9, 2011

By now you may be heartily sick of this question. I certainly am. I’ve written enough about it, and I’m not planning to write about it again—unless, of course, some important new facts or revelations come into play. And those of you who don’t want to read another word about it can just skip this post.

But you gluttons for punishment may be interested in perusing a post by Eric Erikson of Red State (hardly a guy to be accused of naivete, pulling his punches, or lack of conservative bona fides) that pretty much lines up with what I’ve been saying, although he adds quite a bit. I have no idea who his sources are or how reliable, so make of it what you will.

And there’s more in the same vein from Allahpundit at Hot Air.

Posted in Finance and economics | 9 Replies

Nina Simone interlude

The New Neo Posted on August 8, 2011 by neoAugust 8, 2011

I believe we all could use a musical interlude right about now.

A happy one might be nice. But I’ve been thinking for quite some time of putting something up that features Nina Simone, a singer/pianist whose music I’ve loved since my high school years. And Ms. Simone was not usually a happy camper.

By all accounts, Simone was a troubled person. I saw her in concert a couple of times, and the last time (during the late 70s??) she expressed so much anger that the audience became visibly uneasy.

But what a musical genius she was! Trained as a classical pianist, but thwarted (she believed by racism) in her desire to make that her profession, she became one of the premier interpreters of jazz and pop classics, giving them a unique spin with her wonderful pianistic technique and her low and intensely expressive voice.

These two YouTube videos were recorded during a performance in London in 1985 at a venue called Ronnie Scott’s (recording available here). The night was hot (literally; Simone is sweating bullets). But there is something so raw and vulnerable in her manner that she makes it seem as though the audience is eavesdropping on the most intimate and private outpourings of her wounded heart:

Simone’s daughter, who is also a singer, said of her mother in an interview: “She was a genius, and most geniuses in history are not happy-go-lucky people. Their lives are tragic, but yet they’ve left their mark in history, and they have a gift, and there’s a lot of torment that goes along with that.”

I salute Simone’s gift.

Posted in Music | 17 Replies

Down and down the Dow goes, where it stops…

The New Neo Posted on August 8, 2011 by neoAugust 8, 2011

…nobody knows.

Right now, in a move that should surprise absolutely no one, the market is down significantly (as of this writing, 325). A great deal of the slide is almost certainly a reaction to late Friday’s S&P downgrade of the US debt. Will the market continue a downslide, or has there been enough of a correction? Your guess is as good as mine, and as good as S&P’s—which probably isn’t very good.

On Saturday I wrote a post about the downgrade that engendered some of the most vociferous criticism ever in the comments section. I see no reason, however, to change my mind, although of course reasonable people may differ (here is a statistical analysis of S&P’s abysmal track record at forecasting, if you’re interested in that subject).

But it’s not about S&P anymore, if indeed it ever was. They’re a player in the game, of course, but the important question is how bad will the repercussions be. There are no answers, but here are my thoughts:

—This cannot help but have a negative effect economically in the short run. It could be small or it could be big, but some of the effect depends on how panicked people become. Fear may not be the only thing we have to fear, but it is something that feeds on itself and tends to exacerbate the downturn, sometimes a great deal.

—If you’re looking at the political repercussions—yes, this hurts Obama, who is rightly seen by both sides as a non-leader. But if you think it automatically helps the Tea Party, I believe you’re wrong, because (as I said on Saturday) the S&P statement could just as easily be seen as an argument to raise taxes, as well as a criticism of the Tea Party’s “brinksmanship” (S&P’s word, not mine).

—Here’s the good news, though: it could be the wake-up call for Congress to actually do something effective about the long-term debt. I wouldn’t sit on a hot stove till that happens, though.

Posted in Finance and economics, Politics | 47 Replies

Europe’s dilemma…

The New Neo Posted on August 7, 2011 by neoAugust 7, 2011

…and ours, as seen by Janet Daley:

We have arrived at the endgame of what was an untenable doctrine: to pay for the kind of entitlements that populations have been led to expect by their politicians, the wealth-creating sector has to be taxed to a degree that makes it almost impossible for it to create the wealth that is needed to pay for the entitlements that populations have been led to expect, etc, etc.

Posted in Uncategorized | 30 Replies

Bad news: helicopter shot down in Afghanistan, SEALs on it

The New Neo Posted on August 6, 2011 by neoAugust 6, 2011

A helicopter carrying 31 Americans, including 22 Navy SEALS, was shot down while on a mission in Afghanistan to rescue other US forces engaged in a firefight.

The SEALS are reported to have belonged to the same unit as the ones who got Bin Laden, although none of the same men were on the flight. It ranks as “the single deadliest incident since the start of the decade-long Afghan war.”

I noted in this recent post that SEALs are executing missions on a regular and almost daily basis in Afghanistan. We just don’t hear about them. Unfortunately, we’re hearing about this one because the news is tragic.

Posted in Afghanistan, Military | 32 Replies

Pigs fly, and I agree with Robert Reich, Daily Kos, and the Guardian: S&P and the AA+ rating

The New Neo Posted on August 6, 2011 by neoAugust 6, 2011

Last night—as you all must know by now unless you’ve been having a much more exciting weekend than I—the financial ratings agency Standard & Poor downgraded the US debt from AAA to AA+ for the very first time.

Now, AA+ may sound like a good grade, but that’s only if you’re in school. For national debt, it’s not so hot. For the US, it’s “unprecedented,” a word that occurs in many of the articles about the event.

When I started doing research for this post, I went back and read a bunch of articles about the debt negotiations, because S&P had issued a statement saying that the extended brouhaha had factored into their decision:

S&P said the downgrade “reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government’s medium-term debt dynamics.” It also blamed the weakened “effectiveness, stability, and predictability” of U.S. policy making and political institutions at a time when challenges are mounting.

So it sounded as though the nature of the negotiations themselves had upset S&P as much as their outcome. This was odd to me because it seemed to be a political judgment and not a financial one. Was that not outside the realm of S&P’s duty and expertise? As nasty and confusing and stupid and downright depressing as those negotiations were, it was always pretty clear that the debt ceiling would be raised and that no default would occur (I went out on a limb and wrote as much in my very first piece on the subject, and never wavered from that position).

The debt ceiling negotiators themselves seem to have assumed that an agreement would be likely to stay S&P’s hand and avoid a downgrade of the debt:

Listen to a desperate Barack Obama, on 29 July: “If we don’t come to an agreement [on the debt] we could lose our country’s triple-A credit rating.” Or his Republican nemesis, House Speaker John Boehner, on 21 July: “We’ve got to act to prevent a default and to prevent a downgrade of our nation’s credit rating.”

And Tim Geitner (for what that’s worth) had said there was absolutely no risk of a downgrade.

Well they might have thought that coming to an agreement would be enough, since they were probably relying on the fact that an agreement would show willingness and ability to pay, at least in the short term. But S&P thought otherwise.

This is a good deal of power for one agency to have (I say “one” because the other two agencies charged with the same task, Moody’s and Fitch, have retained the AAA rating for the US). Such clout seems odd, especially if you recall that S&P did not exactly cover itself with glory in the leadup to the financial crisis that exploded in 2008.

On doing some more reading, I found I’m not alone in wondering what’s going on with S&P and its possible overreach. But I also found myself with strange bedfellows in doing so–and that’s where Reich, Bruce McF at Daily Kos, and the Guardian come in.

Here’s Reich:

S&P has downgraded the U.S. because it doesn’t think we’re on track to reduce the nation’s debt enough to satisfy S&P ”” and we’re not doing it in a way S&P prefers.

…Pardon me for asking, but who gave Standard & Poor’s the authority to tell America how much debt it has to shed, and how?

If we pay our bills, we’re a good credit risk. If we don’t, or aren’t likely to, we’re a bad credit risk. When, how, and by how much we bring down the long term debt ”” or, more accurately, the ratio of debt to GDP ”” is none of S&P’s business.

S&P’s intrusion into American politics is also ironic because, as I pointed out recently, much of our current debt is directly or indirectly due to S&P’s failures (along with the failures of the two other major credit-rating agencies ”” Fitch and Moody’s) to do their jobs before the financial meltdown. Until the eve of the collapse S&P gave triple-A ratings to some of the Street’s riskiest packages of mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations.

And here’s McF at Kos:

Bottom line, though, S&P is still lying to people when it pretends that the rating is about “ability to pay”. Its only ever about willingness to pay for a government issuing debt in the currency it issues.

Last but not least, we have Mehdi Hasan at the Guardian yesterday:

In recent weeks, we have witnessed elected leaders in the world’s most powerful nation dancing to the tune of David Beers. He’s the moustachioed, chain-smoking head of sovereign credit ratings for S&P, the largest and arguably most influential member of the big three.

“You may have never heard of David Beers but every finance minister in the world knows of him,” noted Reuters in a recent ”“ and rare ”“ profile of the analyst, who doesn’t even have a Wikipedia page…

Three questions come to mind. First, who elected David Beers or his Moody’s and Fitch counterparts? By what right do they decide on the fate of governments, economies, debts and peoples?

Second, why should we care what Beers thinks? What credibility do he and his ilk have? The bipartisan Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in the US has described the big three as “key enablers of the financial meltdown”.

Curiouser and curiouser.

Although it’s certainly bad news that the rating has been lowered, there is no consensus whatsoever on what that will mean. When Japan experienced a similar downgrade, the result was nothing much. Of course, the US is not Japan, and its effect on the economy of the world is far greater. But the financial reality is that there aren’t many good alternatives to investing in the US; nearly everybody’s hurting, and everybody knows it.

Hasan writes:

As the US economist and money manager Zachary Karabell wrote last week, “the best possible outcome would be for them to downgrade the US ”“ and for the world to shrug, with rates set by the multitude of buyers and sellers. That would at least demonstrate that these emperors, clothed though they are, wear very frayed robes.”

That would indeed be the best outcome, since S&P long ago proved that it cannot be trusted to rate accurately. This is not to absolve the US of guilt. The debt ceiling negotiations should never have dragged on the way they did. The Democrats should have passed legislation on it far earlier, when they had the power to do so. Obama should have led rather than punting for so long. And the Republicans shouldn’t have dragged it out till the final bell (no doubt many of you will disagree on that).

What has been learned? I don’t know if Congress is capable of learning. But it seems clear that the negotiations themselves were part of the problem, and gave the appearance of instability to the situation, whatever the reality may have been. And the deal itself seems to have satisfied no one. It was an agreement, but at the price of doing so little about the actual problem that it is virtually meaningless and profoundly unserious, a stopgap measure that merely postpones the day of reckoning.

[ADDENDUM: Here’s the text of the S&P statement, including their rationale for the downgrade.]

Posted in Finance and economics | 106 Replies

An Afghan Romeo and Juliet

The New Neo Posted on August 6, 2011 by neoAugust 6, 2011

What would the cultural relativists say about this tale of family- and village-crossed lovers in Afghanistan?

Let me take a stab at it: those who wish to stone this pair of young lovers are merely shoring up the foundation on which their society is built, which is the arranged marriage where the family dictates the choices. This couple is threatening the entire cultural edifice by its desire to take matters into its own hands, and therefore stoning (the traditional punishment), though horrific, is understandable.

I say: some things are unconscionable, and this is one of them.

I find it encouraging, though, that in this case the police and clerics are defending the couple:

Top clerics declined to condemn the couple. Police officers risked their lives to pull the two teenagers to safety and deposit them into the legal system, rather than the hands of angry relatives…After discussing the case, the provincial council decided that Mr. Mohammed and Ms. Mohammedi deserved the government’s protection because neither was engaged, and because each said they wanted to get married.

“They are not criminals, even if they have committed sexual activities,” said Abdul Zahir, the council’s leader.

The prospective groom has already been beaten up by people from his community, and it’s fairly clear that they would be killed (perhaps by stoning) if they tried to return. They are not alone:

Ms. Pakzad said most of the women and girls in the shelters of western Afghanistan had fled forced or abusive marriages, or had been ostracized from their communities for dating young men without their families’ approval. Male relatives often punish such transgressions with beatings or death.

What a great country.

If any of these people want asylum here, I’d be in favor of granting it.

Posted in Afghanistan, Men and women; marriage and divorce and sex | 4 Replies

Peggy Noonan, Reagan’s speechwriter…

The New Neo Posted on August 5, 2011 by neoAugust 5, 2011

…explains to Obama why speeches are not that important:

Democrats were sure Reagan was wrong, so they explained his success to themselves by believing that it all came down to some kind of magical formula involving his inexplicably powerful speeches. They misdefined his powers and saddled themselves with an unrealistic faith in the power of speaking.

But speeches aren’t magic. A speech is only as good as the ideas it advances. Reagan had good ideas. Obama does not.

And yet, if I recall correctly, early in the game Noonan herself was somewhat seduced (in the metaphoric sense) by Obama’s speeches.

Posted in Language and grammar, Politics | 37 Replies

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