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A blog about political change, among other things

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I’m in complete agreement…

The New Neo Posted on February 10, 2012 by neoFebruary 11, 2012

…with John Hinderaker, with the exception of his first sentence. Unlike Hinderaker, I never was “confident that Republican voters would oust Barack Obama in 2012, hold the House and, in all likelihood, take the Senate.”

And that’s because what Hinderaker calls, “the fratricidal Republican Party” was bound to find an opportunity to try to destroy its chances. I couldn’t have predicted the exact way it would happen, but the pattern of self-sabotage has been too clear.

However, although I never thought it would be easy to defeat Obama, I have by no means decided it won’t occur. As I keep saying, a lot more will be happening before next November, much of it impossible to predict—and although the Republicans will almost certainly continue to hurt themselves, whether the blows will be fatal to their chances of election remains to be seen.

Posted in Election 2012 | 23 Replies

Obama and the “free” contraception

The New Neo Posted on February 10, 2012 by neoFebruary 10, 2012

It shouldn’t really come as a surprise that President Obama has decided to extend the exemption for abortion coverage of employees to not just the Catholic Church, but church-affiliated companies. He probably didn’t expect the extent of the protest, and of course he doesn’t want to do anything to jeopardize his re-election.

It’s really not an exemption, either: just an “accommodation.” It’s a small concession that will probably put out the fire that was beginning to start. I wonder whether his allies in the Catholic Church have considered what a second-term Obama, who no longer will have to worry about re-election, would do.

Here’s the way the accommodation would work:

…[O]n Friday, the White House rolled out a new rule, where insurance companies, rather than faith-based agencies, will offer birth-control coverage directly to these employees and foot the bill.

“If a charity, hospital or another organization has an objection to the policy going forward, insurance companies will be required to reach out to directly offer contraceptive care free of charge,” one administration official explained.

This should immediately raise a red flag in any discerning reader: what can they possibly mean when they say “free of charge,” and does anyone believe such a thing possible? I’ll tackle the second question first: yes, some people either think this will be provided out of thin air—or from those supposedly exorbitant insurance company profits or other money that comes solely from someone else.

For the answer to that first question: what the Obama administration means is that the cost will be perceived by the consumer as “free of charge,” and that may be all that matters. At least, they hope that it will be perceived that way.

In fact, that perception is one of the points the entire enterprise of providing “free” contraception or “free” health care counts on. Have you ever noticed that one of the features of government-regulated health insurance is usually the number of services that receive mandatory coverage, some without even requirng co-pays? And simple catastrophic coverage—which many people want, and which certainly would drive health insurance costs down—is not allowed (by the way, an option for more minimal coverage options is one of the things Romney fought for in Massachusetts, and lost to the Massachusetts legislature. But I digress.)

It’s no accident that there is so much mandatory coverage in government-controlled health insurance, because one of the goals is to get people to obtain more preventative health care. Now, I’m not against prevention; “an ounce of prevention” and all that. The question is how to go about encouraging people to get it, and who will be paying for it when they do—with liberals, conservatives, and libertarians falling on their expected sides of the spectrum with their answers (too big an issue to get into in this post, but feel free to talk amongst yourselves in the comments section).

There isn’t much question, however, what Obamacare’s proponents think: their calculation is that, the more a service is perceived as being “free” (or at the very least, pre-paid), the more likely it is to be used. And that this will encourage people to get more preventative care, and to use things like contraception.

It’s a lot like the food on a cruise ship: hey, the meals are already paid for, so why not just chow down? The only difference is that people pay their own cruise fares, and of course one doesn’t usually come off a cruise ship healthier than at the start.

But none of it is really free; it’s factored into the price of the service, whoever foots the bill. So mandatory contraceptives are hardly free, but if they are perceived as such, and getting them incurs no extra charge to the consumer’s pocketbook that he/she can see, the argument is that contraceptives would be more likely to be purchased and used, and therefore more unwanted pregnancies would be prevented.

I’ve already dealt with how much a person would have to pay if purchasing contraceptives out-of-pocket; it actually isn’t all that much, and most working people (the ones we’re talking about here, since we’re discussing employer-offered health insurance) could well afford the cheapest forms of contraception. I also wonder about the basic premise behind the mandatory coverage: how many people actually hold back from using contraception solely because of the expense, and would use it if it were paid for (“free”)? I’ve long been under the impression that the usual reasons for skipping contraception are far more emotional and complex than that. A quick Google search doesn’t really provide the answer, either (although, for example, this list of reasons why teens forego contraceptives doesn’t even include cost as a factor).

As for the question of who would actually be paying for these contraceptives now, if not the Catholic institutions:

It’s difficult to see how insurance companies would avoid using premiums to cover the costs of contraceptives. They could, perhaps, use premiums from non-religious employers. Those businesses wouldn’t likely object on faith-based grounds, but they probably wouldn’t be keen on footing the bill for people who aren’t on their payrolls.

Well, perhaps they wouldn’t be keen on it. But how many people would understand that that’s what’s happening? Most people who might realize that this wouldn’t actually be “free” might not be able to figure out who was really bearing the cost, and the administration would be counting on that.

[NOTE: By the way, that WaPo article I’ve been linking to that explores the catch in the administration’s accommodation is by Ezra Klein. Since I’ve criticized him in the past, I’ll give him his due here; I’m surprised he wrote an article so relatively critical of Obama, but he did.]

Posted in Health, Health care reform, Obama | 23 Replies

It occurs to me that…

The New Neo Posted on February 10, 2012 by neoFebruary 10, 2012

…some of the pseudo-green practices discussed in this thread are like a dieter putting that packet of artificial sweetener in his/her coffee to go with the piece of chocolate cake by its side.

Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Replies

The unintended consequences of being green

The New Neo Posted on February 9, 2012 by neoFebruary 9, 2012

Just asking:

Aren’t low-flow toilets so inefficient that you often have to flush an extra time or even extra times?

Aren’t energy-saving bulbs so annoyingly slow to get up to speed that people often leave them on all the time rather than wait for the light to brighten?

Doesn’t the recycling of bottles and cans and containers mean that a lot of water is wasted washing them out for the recycling bins?

And I’m always confused by the “paper or plastic” dilemma (not that they even ask anymore; it’s plastic all the way). All those long years they told us plastic in landfills was bad, but now protection of trees takes precedence? I know, I know; we’re supposed to bring our own cloth bags. But how many people do? And don’t most people buy many bags worth of groceries at a time? Are we supposed to carry a whole set of empty ones into the store?

[NOTE: notice that today I’m trying desperately to stay away from the topic of the Republican primaries. Just for today.]

Posted in Uncategorized | 65 Replies

The church, contraception coverage, and Obama

The New Neo Posted on February 9, 2012 by neoFebruary 9, 2012

If the Obama administration thought they could sneak this one in (mandatory coverage of contraception) under the rubric of women’s rights, they must be surprised at the depth and breadth of protest it has aroused:

Abortion rights organizations, pro-choice Democrats, and the media have all characterized the debate over this contraception coverage rule as a struggle between the White House and the Catholic bishops. In its editorial supporting the decision, the New York Times praised the Obama administration for “with[standing] pressure from Roman Catholic bishops and social conservatives.” But that’s not accurate.

The list of Catholics who have lobbied the administration to consider a broader definition of “religious employer” than now exists — one that would cover institutions like Catholic universities and hospitals — includes politically progressive Catholics who have been close allies of the White House, like Father John Jenkins, the president of the University of Notre Dame who stood up to conservatives who wanted Obama disinvited from giving the school’s commencement address in 2009.

Those “progressive” Catholics who supported Obamacare—and without whose support it probably would not have been passed—feel double-crossed. But they have no one to blame but themselves for trusting that this administration would protect the rights of Catholic institutions (other than churches, which are exempt).

The controversy is part of a much larger power struggle which one could frame this way: how far is the federal government allowed to go to “protect” us? Health care insurance is a major front in this battle, whether it be the individual mandate (personal freedom) of the mandate for contraception coverage (religious freedom). At the same time we demand liberty, many of us demand coverage for the poor and the sick who are not able to pay for insurance, which is a contradiction that takes us out of the realm of what’s usually called “insurance” and into the realm of a government entitlement program. And, since health care is very expensive, that takes us into the realm of big bucks.

And these days, even the issue of religious freedom is poorly understood by many people. For example, in the comments section to the post I linked above, the lead comment at the moment contains this quote [emphasis mine]:

Many of us who have worked for Catholic institutions are not Catholic; many are Catholic, but all of us retain the American right to our own opinions and legal private behaviors. The government should not be attempting to force women to follow the church’s belief systems.

Keep in mind that these institutions are not funded solely by the church and the people who use them. They are heavily funded by the government and most would fail miserably without that money…

The real problem here is that a bunch of once revered, now mostly irrelevant old men are still trying to control women’s sexual behavior with a lot of verbal logistics that almost no women are willing to buy anymore.

I missed the part where Catholic hospitals were forbidding their employees to use contraception. I missed the part where not having something paid for is tantamount to stopping a person from getting it. But doesn’t this perfectly illustrate a certain liberal mindset? It goes like this: pay for it for me or you’re infringing on my right to obtain it.

By the way: when last I checked, contraception didn’t cost all that much, depending on what type is used. So I Googled it, and here’s what I found (these figures are from 2010, so I assume there hasn’t been a whole lot of change). If you go to the website, you can see that we’re talking about a range of from about $60 a year (for example the diaphragm, after an initial expenditure of a doctor visit and about $75 for the diaphragm itself) through $150 or so (condoms and a number of other methods) and all the way up to a whopping $600 a year max (for the most expensive type of birth control pill).

Compare that to the cost of a cell phone or cable TV, for example, which most low-income working people (which is what we’re talking about here) seem to be able to pay for. Is this cost really so onerous a burden that the consciences of Catholic institutions must be compromised in order to save its employees the money? But apparently, this is the hill on which the Obama administration wants to fight.

And that hill’s a slippery slope.

Posted in Health care reform, Liberty, Obama, Religion | 42 Replies

Spambot of the day

The New Neo Posted on February 8, 2012 by neoFebruary 8, 2012

Inquiring spambots want to know:

What is love then, nocleg Zakopane

Good question.

[NOTE: In my continuing quest to show how educational spambots can be, I offer that “Zakopane” turns out to be a city in Poland (funny, it doesn’t sound Polish). It appears to be the Aspen of Poland and rather pretty, actually.

And by the way, now might be as good a time as any to note that, whenever I see the word “Polish” written out like that, I have a tendency to read it as “the stuff you put on shoes and silverware to make them shine.”]

Posted in Blogging and bloggers | 9 Replies

Attacking the attack ads

The New Neo Posted on February 8, 2012 by neoJune 7, 2012

Commenter “T” writes:

Because Newt can be seen as cranky, his attack ads seem more in keeping with his persona. That doesn’t make them right, or even effective, just more consistent. because of that consistency, IMO they can also be more readily dismissed by the viewer.

Mitt, OTH, has tried to position himself as an exectuive, a CEO, the country’s potential CEO. When his campaign unleashed their onslaught of ads against Gingrich (both in IA and FL), they struck me as totally out-of-character to this persona. As a result, I’m more disappointed in Romney at the moment than Gingrich…

So my question is: Given this result from such venomous ads how can Romney’s campaign believe they’re running an effective campaign, especially now, in light of yet another non-Romney resurgence?

Commenter “Lisa” responds:

I have to say I am so tired of hearing about Romney’s “venomous ads.” I live in a state (Utah) where all I have been hearing for months are the anti-Romney ads. They aren’t kind and loving. Are we to believe that Gingrich and Santorum are as clean and white as new fallen snow in this political game and Romney is the devil incarnate? Please. Politics is a dirty game…If Romney doesn’t attack he is “too weak and doesn’t have the fire in his belly.” If he attacks, he is vicious and dirty and “has a glass jaw.”

I’m offering these comments because they highlight an issue I’ve thought about many times before, one that’s become big this primary season: so-called “attack ads.” We hear about it every time there’s a big election: voters want candidates to be positive and not attack each other, but attack ads work.

Well, of course they do. And I think it’s very silly to play a game of “who started it,” because—and here I’m in full agreement with “Lisa”—politics is a dirty game.

The dirtiness is hardly new, as anyone who’s ever seen this ad can testify (I remember it well):

Of course, one big difference is that this is a primary, not a general election, and yet another example of the circular firing squad that is sometimes Republican politics. But that’s not new, either, although I agree that it has reached previously unscaled heights (or would that be “depths”?) this year. And that’s very worrisome; any candidate who survives is tainted goods, and the statements of his Republican opponents will become fodder for many Obama campaign ads. On the other hand, perhaps it will all be old news by then, and the candidate somewhat inoculated against the reviving of attacks of which the public has become heartily sick.

But I have long had trouble with the use of the words “venomous” and “attack” because of the way they tend to be thrown around. The same is true of “eviscerate” and “destroy,” both of which I’ve seen a lot of lately (the words, that is, not the acts). Do these words really apply to these ads? Or are many of them just pointing out flaws in the candidate’s record or positions? Is it just ads that are erroneous that you mind?

Also, as with “T,” do you think Romney is especially hurt when he does this, and Gingrich isn’t because people expect it of him? I disagree entirely; I think negative ads are always a double-edged sword for all candidates who use them. And while it’s true that Gingrich’s negative ads may be in line with his persona, many people reject that persona, and Newt himself explicitly rejected it in his earlier statement that he wouldn’t attack the others, he’d focus on Obama. Also, as “Lisa” has pointed out, Romney was in a position where almost any response of his would have would be criticized, either for being too mean or too nice, too aggressive or too passive.

One other thing to remember in this particular campaign is that it features a huge use of PACs. How much control does a candidate really have over their content and tone? I confess that I don’t know. The law states the answer must be “none,” and although it’s naive to believe that that’s really true, I do wonder how much of their direction comes from the candidates and how much is independent.

It’s my impression that in this campaign the worst ads by far have been from candidates’ PACs. One difference, however, between Romney and Gingrich is that many of Gingrich’s “attacks” on Romney have come out of Newt’s own mouth, and these truly have been more vicious than those of anyone else in the race. I think this has hurt him far more than it has helped.

So I’ve got a request: I would love for someone to give me a YouTube link to the offensive ads in question, especially ones that were official ads from the candidate rather than from PACs. Those ads either weren’t ever shown where I live or I just don’t watch enough TV to have seen them.

[ADDENDUM: By the way, I’m still looking for an answer to the request I made in that last paragraph.]

Posted in Election 2012, Romney | 28 Replies

It’s Santorum’s turn to be the non-Romney

The New Neo Posted on February 8, 2012 by neoFebruary 8, 2012

This year’s Republican voters remind me of a guy who’s been going out with a girl for a long time, maybe even living with her. He’s being pressured to marry her, but he knows in his heart she’s not the one he wants.

He can’t leave her, though, because there’s just something about her. Maybe it’s that she’s the kind of girl his mom would like. And anyway, the other girls he’s meeting when he sneaks off to bars and clubs (or wherever he may find them) aren’t much more to his liking. Nobody he’s meeting is really the girl of his dreams, who’s a combination of Jennifer Aniston and Angelina Jolie with a bit of Elizabeth Taylor and Marilyn Monroe thrown in for nostalgia’s sake.

He keeps leaving his girlfriend for a new flame and then keeps coming back. But he’s not happy about any of it, and maybe some day he’ll leave for good.

It’s not the first time the voters have flirted with Santorum; the first time was at the very beginning, in Iowa. Yesterday’s results are somewhat difficult to evaluate, because the Missouri primary yielded no delegates, and the turnout was accordingly low and only Santorum did much campaigning. Colorado and Minnesota were caucuses, which are always atypical of the voters as a whole and favor conservatives. So, what’s it all about, Alfie?

I think it does indicate something, and that something is the continuing dissatisfaction with Mitt Romney. He’s not coalesced as a solid frontrunner, and the real question is whether he ever will. Another related question is whether one of the other candidates will drop out (it won’t be Paul); if so, when; and to whom will his voters then turn their lonely eyes? This could make a whole lot of difference.

And by the way, don’t start saying, “See, you were wrong! Romney was never the inevitable nominee.” You’ve read that in other places, but you never read it here because I never said it, never thought it, and still do not think it.

[NOTE: John Fund wonders why Romney did worse in these states in 2012 than in 2008:

Mitt Romney’s campaign will have lots of explanations for their man’s poor showing tonight. Yes, Colorado and Minnesota were caucus states ”” the turnout is skewed in such contests toward a more conservative electorate. Yes, Missouri’s primary was a “beauty contest” and didn’t award any delegates.

But what Romney won’t be able to explain away is just how much more poorly he did tonight in those three states than in his 2008 showing ”” when he lost the GOP nomination for president.

But actually, there’s a pretty simple explanation—if Fund could only take a good look at his second sentence, and then recall one salient fact about 2008 that he has apparently forgotten: Romney was considered a conservative alternative to McCain in 2008. To take just one of many, many examples, here’s what Rick Santorum (yes, that Rick Santorum) had to say about Romney when he endorsed Mitt back in 2008:

The former senator from Pennsylvania has recently criticized Romney in his TV ads for being too liberal, a far cry from the press release he sent out during the 2008 Republican presidential primaries calling Romney the “clear conservative candidate” who will “stand up for the conservative principles we hold dear.”

It’s all relative; this year Santorum is the conservative alternative to Romney. So what is so puzzling about him doing better than Romney in caucus states that favor conservatives?

Note also that in 2008 John McCain won the nomination despite doing rather poorly in these three states. That doesn’t mean that Romney will follow suit, of course. But it indicates that yesterday’s losses won’t necessarily hold him back from doing so.]

Posted in Election 2012 | 55 Replies

Famous Blue Raincoat: the provenance of a familiar tune

The New Neo Posted on February 7, 2012 by neoJuly 10, 2015

My favorite YouTube activity these days seems to involve watching singer/songwriters morph from young to old almost instantaneously. There’s something both creepy and magical about getting into the YouTube time machine and seeing ten different live versions of a song spanning thirty years or more, something that simply could not have been done in the privacy of one’s home just a few short years ago.

My last subject was Cat Stevens aka Yusuf Islam. Today it’s Leonard Cohen, and most particularly his “Famous Blue Raincoat,” one of the most bittersweet songs ever, and also one of the most quietly beautiful. Here’s the handsome (at least to me), black-haired, youngish (well, he’s 45; sure sounds young now) Cohen with what has long been his standard touring company—two female vocalists with hypnotic higher tones to set off his lugubrious lows, and a jazzy backup band with a sax and a mandolin:

About thirty years later, Cohen’s face is lined and droopy (“Ah, the last time we saw you, you looked so much older”), the lights bluer, the backup singers more glam—although, amazingly enough, Sharon Robinson (the black singer on both videos) has returned looking like only a couple of years have passed for her. Sax and mandolin are still around, although the guys playing them have been swapped out for different models. Cohen’s voice has deepened and he sounds even more weary here (and not just world-weary, either, as before). He can be forgiven, though; the man’s in his mid-70s now:

If the melody sounds familiar, it may be because you’ve heard the song before. Or it may be because you’ve heard this one, which was written later, and features a musical phrase that is virtually the same:

“Somebody sued them on my behalf ”¦ and they did settle,” even though, [Cohen] laughs, “they hired a musicologist who said that particular motif was in the public domain and, in fact, could be traced back as far as Schubert.”

No wonder; it’s a pretty nice motif:

But that’s not the end of it. Granted, the following may not be Schubert. But it’s the same dang melody, “suddenly shiny and new”:

Posted in Music | 13 Replies

New judicial ruling on gay marriage ban

The New Neo Posted on February 7, 2012 by neoFebruary 7, 2012

The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has upheld, by a vote of 2-1, a judge’s lower court ruling that California’s “Proposition 8 ”” a response to an earlier state court decision that legalized gay marriage ”” was a violation of the civil rights of gays and lesbians.”

The case will almost undoubtedly end up in the Supreme Court, so these rulings are in the nature of preliminary skirmishes on a front in a larger war. The current ruling was very narrow, and applies only to a right that had been given (gay marriage in California, which was judicially given) and then taken away (by the people, in voting for Proposition 8).

So it’s not just a fight between advocates of gay marriage and those who oppose it. It’s also a fight between the judicial branch and the people’s ability to legislate—or, rather, to overrule the ability of the judiciary branch to make decisions for it. In other words, a power struggle.

[NOTE: I wrote about previous rulings in the case here, here, and here.]

Posted in Law, Men and women; marriage and divorce and sex | 27 Replies

Obama the PACman

The New Neo Posted on February 7, 2012 by neoFebruary 7, 2012

This should come as no surprise whatsoever, if you remember this, which was far worse.

Posted in Obama | 1 Reply

Spambot (and word) of the day

The New Neo Posted on February 6, 2012 by neoFebruary 6, 2012

Flighty bot:

That is because I am a bit of a fliberttygibbet

Although spelled incorrectly, this is charming to me because it reminds me that there exists a delightful word, “flibbertigibbet,” which I’ve neither heard nor thought of in many a long decade. Thank you, spambot o’ mine!

Here’s the word’s origin and usage:

Flibbertigibbet is a Middle English word referring to a flighty or whimsical person, usually a young woman. In modern use, it is used as a slang term, especially in Yorkshire, for a gossipy or overly talkative person. Its origin is in a meaningless representation of chattering. It does not always apply to females, however; it has also been used to describe Jiminy Cricket due to his whimsical, chatty nature.

This word also has a historical use as a name for a fiend, devil or spirit…

We are reminded, also, that it appears in the lyrics of the song “How Do You Solve a Problem Like Maria,” from the musical “The Sound of Music:” “A flibbertijibbet! A will-o’-the wisp! A clown!”

Posted in Blogging and bloggers, Language and grammar | 10 Replies

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