Hamas is no longer a cohesive organization with a clear chain of command and a formidable armed wing. It lacks an agreed-upon policy for the near future and encounters major difficulties in trying to chart a new course. Rival groups around Khaled Mash’al and Khalil al-Hayeh squabble fiercely among themselves, seeking to fill the vacuum created by the demise of well-entrenched leaders. The organization is at a crossroads.
The article goes on to explain that the split is between those who think October 7 and especially its aftermath has been a disaster, and those who don’t. Note that no one seems to think it was wrong on moral grounds; the disagreements are merely tactical.
More:
These ongoing controversies among Hamas leaders, primarily those residing in Qatar, affect their decision-making in the current negotiations over a ceasefire and release of the remaining Israeli hostages (in exchange for Palestinian prisoners convicted of acts of terrorism). The split between “pragmatists,” who are prepared to accept a phased process of IDF withdrawal, and “radicals,” who insist on the IDF’s complete withdrawal, has produced frequent obstacles in the bargaining and caused shifts in Hamas positions and tactics.
The more moderate wing (although their moderation is relative) believes in cutting losses, cooperating somewhat, and living to fight another day when the time is right. The more radical wing believes it can leverage the remaining hostages into victory:
[The latter group argues] that playing the “hostages card” smartly will allow Hamas to achieve the full withdrawal of the IDF and ultimately to maintain its exclusive control over Gaza. They believe that Qatar, Turkey and many non-governmental donors will devise ways to provide significant aid to them, with Iran doing its best to help. Furthermore, they say that the Palestinian Authority is very fragile and there is no benefit in accommodating it.
Is this true? It’s probably close to it; it makes intuitive sense. Nothing indicates any basic change in the goals, however: to achieve power and to destroy Israel.
