And if so, why?
Commenter “mkent” offers this idea:
Trump has said as a part of the ceasefire he’ll lift Western sanctions against Russia. It’s these sanctions which have ground Russian war production to a halt. They are having great difficulty building new tanks, helicopters, drones, and satellites because of the sanctions. Their tanks use Western radios, optics, and targeting computers. Ditto their drones, helicopters, and satellites.
For example, while the Russians can build older (pre-1990s) C-band communication satellites, they need Western parts like Traveling Wave Tube Amplifiers (TWTAs) to build modern (1990s and beyond) Ku and Ka-band comsats. Even consumer sats like DirecTV and XM satellite radio are beyond them. Their Glonass (GPS equivalent) satellites use Western rad-hard chips. Their Glonass system (used for glide bomb guidance) is slowly degrading because they don’t have access to them. Similarly their oil pipelines and refineries are degrading because of the lack of spare parts.
Right now Russia’s military is big and dumb. It’s why Ukraine can hold it off. But if Russia can build modern comsats and glide bombs (among other things) at scale, its military becomes big and smart. At that point only America would be able to stop it, and it would cost us dearly.
I know next to nothing about weaponry, so let’s just assume the military details are correct or at least mostly correct.
I couldn’t recall what Trump said in the past about Russia and sanctions. But when I looked, I was surprised to find that he’d spoken about it quite a bit during the 2024 campaign – for example this:
Trump decided to address the issue of sanctions on 5 September at the Economic Club of New York, an NGO that has been studying US economic policy for over a century.
Trump expressed doubts about the effectiveness of sanctions for one specific reason: they undermine the status of the dollar as the global currency. The former president cited Iran, Russia and China as examples of sanctions that, in his opinion, have not worked.
Moreover, he believes that greater influence can be achieved not through sanctions but through tariffs, although he emphasised that he used them to prevent conflicts and wars.
But did Trump really talk about lifting sanctions on Russia, as Harris’s team claimed?
One would need to be very creative in interpreting his words to draw such a conclusion. At the very least, Trump mentioned “lifting” sanctions just once – in a hypothetical situation where he would impose “strong” restrictive measures first. …
This may indicate that Trump is willing to use sanctions as a tool in negotiations with Russia, although it’s unclear how. Even in the event of a theoretical victory, he wouldn’t immediately have the authority to lift sanctions on Russia.
Moreover, the sanctions “infrastructure” opposing Russia involves not only the US but also its European allies. A decision by Trump alone wouldn’t dismantle it overnight.
European Pravda, the origin of that article, is apparently a Ukrainian publication focusng on Europe.
But what is Trump saying now about sanctions on Russia in connection with peace talks on the Ukraine war? Let’s take a look at this from SOS Rubio:
Well, sanctions are all the result of this conflict. There are sanctions that were imposed as a result of this conflict. And so I would say to you that in order to bring an end to any conflict there has to be concessions made by all sides. We’re not going to predetermine what those are. We’re certainly not going to negotiate this today or in a press conference for that matter. But – and there are other parties that have sanctions. The European Union is going to have to be at the table at some point because they have sanctions as well that have been imposed.
This is from Waltz, although it’s not about sanctions:
If you’re going to bring both sides together, you have to talk to both sides. And we’ll continue to remind everyone literally within minutes of President Trump hanging up with President Putin he called and spoke with President Zelenskyy. So shuttle diplomacy has happened throughout history, it’s happened all over the world. We are absolutely talking to both sides. The Secretary of State just met with President Zelenskyy days ago, along with the Vice President, seven Cabinet members in Europe at the same time – really showing the importance of engaging our allies. President Trump spoke with President Macron just yesterday. Prime Minister Starmer is coming to Washington next week.
So I think we’ll – the facts – we’ll continue to push back on this notion that our allies haven’t been consulted. They’re being – they are being consulted literally almost on a daily basis. And we’ll continue to do so.
I also found this article, from a curious group that appears to be from the somewhat-isolationist segment of the right:
In a co-authored paper from April 2024, Keith Kellogg, President-elect Trump’s Ukraine envoy, said “the United States and its allies would pledge to only fully lift sanctions against Russia and normalize relations after it signs a peace agreement acceptable to Ukraine.” …
Detailed thinking is needed on how future sanctions relief for Russia might be phased in as part of a longer-term peace plan for Ukraine. That should include realistic and achievable milestones for Russian compliance to avoid the trap of the failed Minsk II agreement.
Any U.S.-brokered future ceasefire in Ukraine may end the fighting but it won’t represent a just peace without a longer-term strategy. Nor will it represent a normalization of relations. …
it also seems clear that negotiations to end the fighting will stall unless Vladimir Putin knows there is a realistic prospect of some sanctions relief. And he will be wary of any draft peace agreement that de facto makes sanctions permanent. That would repeat the same mistakes that made the Minsk II agreement fail. …
And although the Russian economy is overheating from the colossal injection of government war spending, it is more resilient than Ukraine’s economy, with low debt, respectable growth, and still considerable reserves. Ukraine is hugely indebted and kept afloat by Western aid, which accounts for almost half of government spending.
So, while he can’t fight forever, Putin can choose to stall. And European states know the financial burden of an already unaffordable war will increasingly fall on them with Trump in the Oval Office. …
So, we need more granular thinking on what sanctions relief means in the wide gulf between the status quo and no sanctions at all. Russia is subject to more than 20,000 sanctions that extend into the political, social and cultural realm as well as the economic sphere. …
Most sanctions have zero impact. No less than 92% of individual UK sanctions are against persons who have never traveled to Britain or held assets here. The picture is the same for 77% of sanctioned Russian companies and is mirrored across the EU, U.S. and elsewhere.
Upon the agreement of a peace deal for Ukraine, 16,000 zero-impact Russian sanctions could be struck down in a grand gesture brokered by the U.S., EU and UK. This would offer no economic relief to Russia but give Putin something concrete to sell to his public.
Letting Russia compete once more in international sporting and cultural events such as the Olympics would offer a hugely symbolic gesture that the West was seeking to normalize relations, with no economic relief attached.
To avoid a repeat of Minsk II, the hardest-hitting “economic” sanctions would need to be included in a roadmap for the peace process with realistic milestones that it was in Russia’s power to achieve.
Is this what Trump has in mind? Doesn’t sound so bad to me. But unfortunately, I don’t read his mind.
Lastly:
The U.S. could use “economic tools of leverage” and “of course military tools of leverage” if Russia does not agree to a good peace deal with Ukraine, Vice President JD Vance said in a Wall Street Journal interview published on February 14.