No, I’m not a doctor, much less an oncologist. But I happen to have a more-than-average amount of information about prostate cancer, due to the fact that I know – and am even close to – quite a few men with it. And by “close to” I mean that I even know many details about their diagnoses and subsequent medical treatment. Much of this information is also very current, one person having been diagnosed extremely recently and in Biden’s age category.
I used to think that prostate cancer in the elderly was almost never aggressive, and that if left untreated almost all those men will die of something else. However, as you can see from this article, aggressive prostate cancer is far from rare in elderly men, although their prognosis without treatment is less clear as to the time frame:
Brassell and colleagues reported on the clinicopathologic features and the survival outcomes in 12,081 men diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1989 and 2009, from the Prostate Disease Research database. …
Men aged 70 years (n = 3350, 30.2%), had a significantly higher clinical stage and biopsy Gleason grade. Older men also had higher prediagnosis PSAV (P <.0001), which has previously been shown to be a marker for more aggressive prostate cancer. Among patients aged 70 years, 49.4% had external beam radiation therapy (EBRT), 24.6% had RP, 18.7% received primary hormonal therapy, 6% had brachytherapy, and 1.2% had cryotherapy. Among patients who underwent RP, pathologic stage, upgrading, and positive surgical margin rates were all significantly higher in older men.
That’s an article from 2013, and I’m sure there are plenty of others but I’m not about to spend hours and hours on this at the moment. I will add that the person I know who is about Biden’s age and who was recently diagnosed with aggressive prostate cancer (Gleason 9, the same score as Biden) but without metastases, was told that without treatment the cancer would probably kill him before anything else just going by his type of cancer versus his average life expectancy at that age. Other doctors may have advised him differently, of course, but the one who did his biopsy was a very well-known and highly-respected prostate cancer expert who wasn’t gung-ho for treatment of the elderly with prostate cancer in general.
The men I know who have prostate cancer, including the one with the very recent diagnosis, all had had regular prostate screenings and yet several had small bone metastases when diagnosed, and their PSAs had only recently elevated. So I don’t have a problem with the idea that Biden was only diagnosed recently. It’s even possible that he had stopped having PSA screenings because of his advanced age; a lot of doctors no longer do them routinely in men of his age. I have read that Biden was diagnosed because of a physical exam in which a nodule was felt, and I don’t find that so strange. I’ve read that his metastases are treatable as well, and that was true for the several men I know who had small bone metastases at diagnosis.
I’ll add that the elderly person I know who was recently diagnosed with aggressive prostate cancer and is being treated had only had a very small PSA elevation and no nodules present that could be felt, and yet had fairly extensive although localized aggressive prostate cancer. The lack of metastasis was determined by PET scan, although it could not be ruled out at the cellular level. It was recommended that he take androgen-blocking injections and have localized radiation therapy.
Prostate cancer, even with bone metastases, is usually very treatable. From what I’ve read it’s likely Biden will have androgen-blocking drugs, plus possibly radiation. As I said, the person I know with a disease profile something like Biden’s is getting those treatments, although he was first diagnosed through a slightly elevated PSA rather than nodules that could be felt. These decisions are not cut-and-dried, and not all doctors would make the same recommendations.
The usual pathway to diagnosis goes like this: suspicion raised by elevated PSA or felt nodules, special MRI to determine the likelihood of cancer and if the likelihood is in the much higher range it is followed by a biopsy. The biopsy gives the diagnosis and the Gleason score, which helps determine a treatment plan. The MRI is a more recent development (a doctor told me that it became widely available for this purpose in 2017) that greatly facilitates the decision about whether or not to have a biopsy, particularly in elderly men. Therefore it prevents unnecessary biopsies compared to in the past, and makes it more likely that biopsies are only done in men who have a good chance of needing treatment. After the positive biopsy and Gleason score, there’s usually a PET-scan to determine if metastases are present.
So I have much less difficulty than most people in assuming that Biden really has been diagnosed only quite recently. Of course, there’s zero reason to trust anything that is said about his health, due to past experience with coverups of Biden’s state. But what we’re reading about his prostate cancer diagnosis could certainly be true; prostate cancer is an odd beast for many reasons.
NOTE: Here’s one of several posts I’ve previously written on prostate cancer.
