Are all the hostages dead?

The New Neo Posted on by

It’s an unanswerable question. I ask it now because of this report:

On Monday, however, Israel’s Channel 12 news reported that Hamas was trying to negotiate the release of fewer hostages on the grounds it had “no ability to release 40” abductees who fit the initial request by Israeli negotiators.

Most of what is written on this topic is conjecture. No one knows, and I suspect that even Hamas doesn’t quite know (although it knows more than the rest of us) because some of the kidnappers were “free-lancers,” because the hostages have not been kept in a central location, and because they’ve been moved around so much by so many people. I do think we can safely say that many of the hostages are dead, at least nearly forty and perhaps many more; perhaps even all. My personal belief is that there are probably at least 50 still alive, but not necessarily in the categories of “woman, children, and the elderly and/or sick.” But I confess I really have no idea.

We do know that Hamas lies – perhaps it’s lying about almost everything.

We do know that Hamas has no interest in whether the hostages ultimately die, except that they are valuable bargaining chips.

We do know that Hamas wants and expects a great deal for the hostages: probably the release of all Palestinian prisoners, the cessation of all hostilities, and being kept in power, at the very least. Israel is highly unlikely to give in to all of that, despite intense pressure from its “friends” in the Biden administration and Europe.

We do know that in the past Israel has given Hamas a great deal for a single hostage, so Hamas feels encouraged to hold out for everything it wants.

ADDENDUM:

A few more thoughts –

It almost goes without saying that the hostages who are still alive (if there are any) have been and still are being sexually abused and tortured in various ways both imaginable and unimaginable, as well as starved. The younger women are especially likely to have been heavily sexually abused, but such abuse is almost certainly not limited to them.

It is also worth remembering that many of the remaining hostages are IDF soldiers, including the women, and thus might be expected to be treated particularly harshly by Hamas and other Palestinians. Some were already wounded when kidnapped and may have died of their wounds quite some time ago.

I assume Israel has some intelligence on all of this but that their knowledge of what has happened to each hostage is far from complete.

It is in Hamas’ interest to maintain the idea that many hostages are alive and/or that they don’t know how many are alive even if they do. As I said, hostages are bargaining chips to them. It is also in Israel’s interest to pretend to be willing to give up more than they actually are willing to give up in exchange for the hostages’ return, because if Hamas thinks Israel might actually release all prisoners and agree to a ceasefire, then Hamas is more likely to keep at least some of the hostages alive in order to make that happen.

But the world’s lack of concern about the barbaric crime of taking the hostages and their sadistic treatment while in captivity gives more power to Hamas to do whatever it wishes with them. And Israel’s prior lopsided hostage deals have made the situation worse because if Hamas got over a thousand prisoners released (including Sinwar) for one Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, it makes sense that Hamas would think that abducting over 200 hostages would give it almost unlimited power over Israel.

But it is also worth remembering that Shalit was held for five years and kept alive. I realize the situation is not especially analogous to that of the current hostages, but at least there is the fact that he was kept alive. Shalit also was the first captured Israeli soldier to be released alive in 26 years. Unless I’m mistaken, none of the October 7 hostages who have been released so far were soldiers. One female Israeli soldier was rescued by the IDF early on, however: Ori Megidish.

Jordan’s government and Hamas: not friends

The New Neo Posted on by

Here are some recent developments in the Arab world [emphasis mine]:

The intensive protests in Jordan against the war in Gaza are a source of concern for the Gulf states, which regard them as an attempt by Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) movement and Iran to agitate the masses and ultimately overthrow the Jordanian regime, as well as other regimes in the region.

Since Hamas’ October 7, 2023 terror attack in southern Israel and the outbreak of the ensuing war in Gaza, which has been ongoing for six months, Hamas officials, who are supported by the MB [Muslim Brotherhood] and Iran, have been calling on the people of Jordan to escalate the protests in the kingdom and join the fight against Israel by opening a front against it from this country. These calls increased the scope and intensity of the protests, which take place throughout the country but especially in the vicinity of the Israeli embassy in Amman, where thousands of young men gather every evening to “besiege the embassy building,” chanting slogans in praise of Hamas’ leaders and against the Jordanian king. Elements close to the MB have also called to stir up popular unrest in other Arab countries that maintain ties with Israel.

Both Jordan and its Arab allies, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the Palestinian Authority (PA), accuse Hamas and its patrons – the MB and Iran – of using the war in Gaza to destabilize the Jordanian kingdom, overthrow its regime and even instigate chaos and a new “Arab Spring” in the region. As the protests in the kingdom intensified, Arab leaders stressed that they stand with their ally Jordan. …

This complete support for the Jordanian kingdom also found expression in many articles in the Saudi and Emirati press. … Other articles in the Saudi and Emirati papers attacked the leaders of Hamas, claiming that they are trying to destroy Jordan in order to cover up their defeat in the Gaza war, and warned about a plot by Iran and the MB to precipitate another Arab Spring in the region. Some articles even claimed that targeting Jordan would be regarded by its Arab allies as a declaration of war, and noted that Saudi Arabia and the UAE would act to defend the stability of the Jordanian regime.

Since October 7 we have read that many Arab states, while outwardly supporting the Palestinians, are supporting Israel behind the scenes. This is further evidence of it. They see Hamas, the Palestinians and their allies, the Muslim Brotherhood, and Iran as a threat to their own governments, and they are correct to do so. There is a long long history there, too long to go into in this post.

But I will mention one aspect of that history that involves Jordan. Remember the phrase “Black September”? Most of us Westerners of a certain age remember that it was used by the Palestinian group that perpetrated the horrendous 1972 Munich Olympics massacre of Israeli athletes that first shocked the world but ended up gaining much sympathy for the Palestinian cause (does that event trajectory sound familiar?).

But the term “Black September” had another meaning that was (and probably still is) well-known in the Arab world if not here. It refers to the 1970-1971 war in Jordan in which Palestinians attempted to topple the government and the government retaliated against them:

Black September, also known as the Jordanian Civil War, was an armed conflict between Jordan, led by King Hussein, and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), led by chairman Yasser Arafat. The main phase of the fighting took place between 16 and 27 September 1970, though certain aspects of the conflict continued until 17 July 1971.

… by early 1970, leftist groups within the PLO began calling for the overthrow of Jordan’s Hashemite monarchy, leading to violent clashes in June 1970. Hussein hesitated to oust them from the country, but continued PLO activities in Jordan culminated in the Dawson’s Field hijackings of 6 September 1970. This involved the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) seizing three civilian passenger flights and forcing their landing in the Jordanian city of Zarqa, where they took foreign nationals as hostages and blew up the planes in front of international press. Hussein saw this as the last straw and ordered the Jordanian Army to take action.

On 17 September 1970, the Jordanian Army surrounded cities with a significant PLO presence, including Amman and Irbid, and began targeting fedayeen posts that were operating from Palestinian refugee camps. The next day, 10,000 Syrian troops bearing Palestine Liberation Army (PLA) markings began an invasion by advancing towards Irbid, which the fedayeen had occupied and declared to be a “liberated” city. On 22 September, the Syrians withdrew from Irbid after suffering heavy losses to a coordinated aerial–ground offensive by the Jordanians. Mounting pressure from other Arab countries, such as Iraq, led Hussein to halt his offensive. On 13 October, he signed an agreement with Arafat to regulate the fedayeen’s presence in Jordan. However, the Jordanian military attacked again in January 1971, and the fedayeen were driven out of the cities, one by one, until 2,000 surrendered after they were encircled during the Ajlun offensive on 23 July, formally marking the end of the conflict.

Jordan allowed the fedayeen to relocate to Lebanon via Syria, where they later became involved in the Lebanese Civil War. The Palestinian Black September Organization was founded after the conflict to carry out attacks against Jordanian authorities in response to the fedayeen’s expulsion; their most notable attack was the assassination of Jordanian prime minister Wasfi Tal in 1971, as he had commanded parts of the military operations against the fedayeen. The following year, the organization shifted its focus to attacking Israeli targets and carried out the Munich massacre against Israeli athletes.

It’s a lot to digest and sort out, but the gist of it is this: Jordan and its allied Arab states have much reason to oppose the Palestinians and their allies because they know from bitter bitter experience that they are the target as well, not just Israel. And they are willing to kill a great many Palestinians to defend themselves. They and their allies are now issuing are a warning.

The time frame in the region is very long. The Black September events occurred over fifty years ago, but the issues have not substantially changed although some of the details have.

NOTE: Wiki can be unintentionally funny sometimes. When it says that the pugnacious Palestinians (using the old term “fedayeen”) “later became involved in the Lebanese Civil War” what it means is that, as with the Palestinians in Jordan, the country took them in and then the Palestinians proceeded to destabilize and try to topple the government of the host country. In fact, Lebanon has never been remotely the same since then, although Jordan has survived fairly intact.

Scotland: land of the unfree, home of the tattletales

The New Neo Posted on by

[Hat tip: commenter “Barry Meislin”]

Scotland’s new hate-speech law has drawn quite a reaction:

Entirely as predicted, Police Scotland has been deluged with vexatious and politically-driven ‘hate crime’ reports, with one top official complaining “we cannot cope.”

Under the new legislation, anyone deemed to have been verbally ‘abusive’, in person or online, to a transgender person, including “insulting” them could be hit with a prison sentence of up to seven years.

Is it real or is it Memorex? It appears to come from both sides of the political spectrum. Apparently some of the reports are woke complaints and some are people on the right trolling the authorities. Pity the poor poor police, who apparently have nothing better to do:

This followed a trial of a separate program set to be implemented across the country to stop investigating crimes like theft and criminal damage, which authorities acknowledge will help criminals.

These events are beyond any parody the Bee could cook up. Whatever happened to “sticks and stones”? Apparently it’s only old folks who recall the rhyme and what it means.

My partial eclipse photos

The New Neo Posted on by

Hot off the press.

I borrowed someone’s special glasses and looked for a moment when there was just a small crescent of sun. Pretty impessive.

But mostly I used a colander. That was fun, too. So here’s my self-portrait with eclipse-colander:

And here are some images projected from the colander onto a white paper which for some reason looks blue:

I noticed shadows of the bare tree branches were hyper-sharp. I’d never seen that before; anybody know why it happens? Here’s a photo of tree branch shadows on a white car:

It was incredibly sunny today, absolutely perfect for viewing.

Warning: Israeli products!

The New Neo Posted on by

I was in the supermarket a couple of days ago and noticed a display of Passover goods: matzoh, gefilte fish, macaroons, the usual.

And it struck me for the very first time in my life that somebody might deface it in some way with Jew-hating graffiti, although no one had yet done so.

And now I see the following, which is a more organized effort than what I had envisioned. But much of today’s anti-Semitism is quite organized, just like in the olden days in Germany:

And of course our government is just itching to get into the act:

The Biden administration is considering requiring labels on imported goods made by Israeli settlers living in the West Bank, according to a report by the Financial Times citing U.S. officials familiar with the plan.

According to the report, the Biden administration hasn’t determined the timing for the move or issued its final approval for the policy – though it almost announced it last month following the announcement of a large land seizure in the West Bank by Israel.

The administration reportedly views the label requirement as a means of ratcheting up pressure on Israel to tamp down violence by settlers in the West Bank, as well as to show frustration with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government amid Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza.

The FT reported that the labeling policy, if it’s approved and implemented, would come as a reversal of a 2020 policy advanced by the Trump administration that required goods made in the West Bank be labeled as “Made in Israel.”

The Trump administration’s policy itself was a reversal of a prior U.S. policy to label products made in the West Bank as being from there, rather than Israel. Prior to the Trump-era change, the Obama administration in 2016 reiterated the West Bank labeling requirements and noted that fines could be issued for non-compliance.

You can always count on Biden and Company to implement the Obama Doctrine.

ADDENDUM: Caroline Glick on “settler violence.”

Trump on abortion: leave it to the states

The New Neo Posted on by

Trump has taken an official position on abortion policy, which is that it should be left to the states to decide without any national policy. This is basically Dobbs, and it is in my opinion the correct legal stance. It won’t make most people on the more extreme ends of either side happy, but nothing he would have said would have done that either. I think his statement is the best thing he could have done politically, as well.

Here’s the gist of it:

Trump explicitly affirmed his support for in vitro fertilization (IVF) and he emphasized his support for states determining their own laws for abortion so long as there are exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother.

“The states will determine by vote, or legislation, or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land – in this case, the law of the state,” Trump said. Many states will be different. Many states will have a different number of weeks…at the end of the day it is all about the will of the people.”

You may never have heard of Vladimir Vasiliev, one of the greatest male ballet dancers who ever lived

The New Neo Posted on by

In fact, he might just be the greatest male ballet dancer who ever lived. Such comparisons are subjective, after all.

When I was young (probably some time in the 1960s) I saw Vasiliev dance in person, along with many other Russian dance luminaries of the day. He never defected. He was married to another great dancer, Ekaterina Maximova, an Audrey Hepburn-ish type with great charm and lightness.

I can’t seem to discover how tall Vasiliev is (he’s still alive at 83 although Maximova died in 2009), but he seemed a giant on stage. He had a highly unusual quality for a ballet dancer because the initial impression he gave was of tremendous physical power allied with the usual grace that ballet dancers posses, and a very masculine power at that. It’s hard to describe him and, although luckily we have videos, as I’ve said many times videos can’t capture dance except as a pale echo.

But even on videos you can see the tremendous height of Vasiliev’s jumps. In this video the camera angles are sometimes odd, and I have no idea what sort of surface he’s on. It looks as though it could even be concrete, which would be awful. But no matter; Vasiliev soars to a height surprising. Keep in mind that the year was 1969 and ballet technique back then was nothing like as advanced as today. And yet most of today’s dancers can’t hold a candle to him (I’ve cued up a very short excerpt from this pas de deux):

Here you can see his tremendous upper body strength when he does some famous one-armed lifts of his wife. This is from the Soviet ballet “Spartacus,” a work I saw in person and which bored me unutterably. But that certainly wasn’t Vasiliev’s fault; for me, it was the choreography that was such a snooze:

I actually think that one of the best ways to see Vasiliev is in this later video – I believe he’s in his late forties here – that records him teaching a class to four other male dancers. The video shows the tremendous ease and unified harmony of his movements and his emphasis on head and shoulders, otherwise known in ballet as epaulement. It’s absolutely vital to ballet and much-neglected today (be sure to read the captions, which translate what Vasiliev is saying):

I said it’s hard to describe Vasiliev’s special qualities. But I found this 2023 interview with him in which he manages to do it, so I’ll just quote him. Here he is answering the question “For you, what is the most important thing in a performer?” [emphasis mine]:

V. Vasiliev: Everything is important in a performer. I never tire of repeating what my great teachers told me: there is nothing unimportant or secondary in a performing art. Therefore the rarest quality in an artist is a sense of a natural organic source from which everything melds into a single and inseparable harmonic whole which is impossible to separate out into its components or explain, and this all works well for the development of the character. This is what we observe in truly great performers. And this is a great gift, it is unlikely that it can be learned.

I couldn’t agree more.

Some details of the World Community Kitchen killings in Gaza

The New Neo Posted on by

We have more perspective now on what happened to cause the Israelis to bomb the World Community Kitchen convoy.

An excerpt:

Things begin to go pear-shaped at Implementation Point 2. That point marks what is essentially the line of contact between the IDF and Hamas. At this point, at least one armed man climbed onto the aid trucks.

Let’s stop here for a moment. There appears to be an agreement between the IDF and Hamas that Hamas fighters can ride shotgun on aid trucks to safeguard the supplies. If you recall, when Biden announced the construction of a temporary port in Gaza, I pointed out that issue.

Astounding. Apparently it’s not enough to aid the enemy population; actual terrorists are the foxes guarding the aid henhouse. What could possibly go wrong?

Israel has dismissed two senior officers as a result:

The probe found that the strike was ordered against the convoy of WCK vehicles after officers suspected they carried a Hamas gunman, despite a low level of confidence, and against army regulations. The officers did not identify the vehicles as belonging to WCK when the strike was ordered, according to the investigation.

So protocols were also violated in what was already an exceptionally volatile situation.

And now – as is petty much always the case regarding Israel – the world is outraged at something Israel did which was almost inevitable in a war. Mistakes will be made and innocent people will die as a result.

The larger issue is why so much aid is being given to a population that started this war with a massive series of aggressive atrocities in a sudden and unprovoked attack when a ceasefire was supposedly in operation. That population continues its heavy support for its own longstanding use of terrorism in general and the terrorism of October 7 in particular. That population elected a terrorist operation to be its government. And yet nearly the entire world has dedicated itself to helping them.

Another terribly dangerous J6 insurrectionist faces the possibility of prison: meet Rebecca Lavrenz

The New Neo Posted on by

Yes, the title of this post contains sarcasm.

This 72-year-old woman’s crime appears to have been praying near the Capitol on J6, then entering the building through an open door, walking around for 10 minutes quite peacefully, and exiting. Horrors!

Here’s the story:

Rebecca Lavrenz, dubbed the “praying grandmother,” attended the Stop the Steal rally on January 6, 2021, prayed with a group of people outside the Capitol Building, and went into the Capitol Building, where she stayed for just 10 minutes. She has been on trial this week in Washington, DC, facing prosecution at the hands of Biden’s Department of Justice.

By her own admission, she spent about 10 minutes inside the Capitol Building on J6, over an hour praying outside, and for that, she has been charged with four misdemeanor counts. Surveillance footage shows her peacefully walking around inside the Capitol Building and even speaking to a Capitol Police Officer, who leaned forward slightly to hear her.

That’s it.

The charges against her are “entering and remaining in a restricted building or grounds, disorderly and disruptive conduct in a restricted building or grounds, disorderly conduct in a Capitol Building, and parading, demonstrating or picketing in a Capitol Building.” So, what was her “disorderly conduct”? They don’t quite say, but the FBI claims this:

… there is also probable cause to believe that Lavrenz violated additional laws “which make it a crime to willfully and knowingly utter loud, threatening or abusive language, or engage in disorderly or disruptive conduct, at any place in the Grounds or in any of the Capitol Buildings with the intent to impede, disrupt, or disturb the orderly conduct of a session of Congress or either House of Congress, or the orderly conduct of a session of Congress or either House of Congress, or the orderly conduct in that building of a hearing before, or any deliberations of, a committee of Congress or either House of Congress; and parade, demonstrate, or picket in any of the U.S. Capitol Buildings.”

Was it the praying?

She was convicted on all four counts, and the penalty might be up to a year in prison and/or a fine of $200K. The jury took an uncharacteristically long time to convict her – for a DC jury in a J6 kangaroo court, that is:

Defense attorneys from John Pierce Law presented seven witnesses, while four people testified on behalf of prosecutors from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, who argued that Lavrenz entered the Capitol without having the authority to do so.

She testified for five hours Monday, and the jury started deliberations at 4:45 p.m., released at 5:30 p.m. Monday and resumed deliberations Tuesday, Wednesday and nearly all day Thursday. Lavrenz said she was called in to answer clarification questions several times. The verdict was announced late Thursday afternoon.

She also says that, “I’m going to make my voice so loud that if they try to put me in prison to shut it up, it won’t work.” Lavrenz is already getting a fair amount of attention because the charges are so ludicrous and she’s such a sympathetic defendant. But it doesn’t and won’t stop the over-the-top political prosecution/persecution. The Democrats have invested way too much in this and way too much is riding on it.

Meanwhile, actual criminals, and actual destructive rioters on the left …. Well, you know the drill.