Modeling can analyze data about complex systems and make predictions. But the predictive value of modeling is hampered by the fact that models are only as good as the assumptions and statistics behind them. Models have become ubiquitous in government … Continue reading →
This problem has bothered me from the start: WHAT PERCENTAGE OF AMERICANS IN GENERAL HAVE AN UNDERLYING CONDITION? 73% of Americans Hospitalised With COVID-19 Had an Underlying Condition, Says CDC. No numbers, but there’s this: “The CDC noted that many … Continue reading →
Not a controlled study, but still it’s good news: Dr. Stephen Smith, founder of The Smith Center for Infectious Diseases and Urban Health, said on “The Ingraham Angle” on Wednesday night that he is optimistic about the use of antimalarial … Continue reading →
I came across these charts the other day, and I’ve been trying very hard to figure out certain things about them. The charts are an attempt to compare the projected need for ventilators, hospital beds, and ICU beds with the … Continue reading →
As a non-scientist non-doctor non-epidemiologist blogger, my present thoughts on COVID-19 are as follows: it will most likely end up taking a worldwide toll something like the 1957 flu, adjusted for increased population of course. Perhaps even more like the … Continue reading →
All you math people out there, correct me if I’m wrong – as I’m sure you will. Arithmetic or linear growth means that a number increases by addition. Here’s an example in which the number 2 is added to a … Continue reading →
Epidemiologists deal with dry facts and figures, but the subject matter of those facts and figures can be very dramatic: illness and death, and how best to go about minimizing the former and delaying the latter. Usually we don’t pay … Continue reading →
There are a great many highly important facts about COVID-19 that are unknown. Many of us know they are unknown, but many people think they are known. An obvious one is the case fatality rate from the disease. It only … Continue reading →
Now that WHO has declared COVID-19 a pandemic, it’s time for a definition. The word “pandemic” can describe extreme situations like that in 1918, or milder situations that we barely remember, with far fewer deaths. If you look at the … Continue reading →
I keep seeing and hearing references to the supposed fact that COVID-19 is known to be spread by asymptomatic people infected with the virus, in addition of course to symptomatic people. It was one of the first things I heard … Continue reading →
DNA testing has a few pitfalls, the best-known of which is probably potential privacy issues. At this point, unless a person posts results on one of the unprotected sites, I think privacy isn’t a big concern, although it certainly could … Continue reading →
I’ve written several posts already, trying to offer the main facts so far as they emerge. But I see so much stuff out there that’s not only obvious fear-mongering, but just plain incorrect. It’s true that we don’t yet know … Continue reading →