Then and now: COVID-19, H2N2, worst cases, and the economy
Here are some estimates for the toll COVID-19 is likely to take in the US. Make of them what you will:
One model from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggested that between 160 million and 210 million Americans could contract the disease over as long as a year. Based on mortality data and current hospital capacity, the number of deaths under the CDC’s scenarios ranged from 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million…
Another model built by experts at Resolve to Save Lives, a global health nonprofit, and the Council on Foreign Relations found the number of potential deaths could range from as few as 163,500, if the virus is no more deadly than seasonal influenza, to more than 1.6 million if the virus carries a mortality rate of just 1 percent.
Some will be young, but most will be older than 60, many considerably older, and with pre-existing conditions.
I’m not sanguine about this. I’m older than that myself. But I’m also old enough to remember the 1957 Asian flu (the more PC and official name is H2N2). Let’s take a look. It’s estimated that H2N2 caused 110,000 deaths in the US all told. That’s a lot of deaths, too. In fact, since the population of the US at that time was just about half of what it is now, the deaths then were the equivalent of today’s 220,000. That’s higher than those low-range estimates the models give for COVID-19, although considerably lower than the high-end predictions.
Here’s a description (from the UK) of how frightening the illness seemed to medical authorities at first:
The first cases in the UK were in late June, with a serious outbreak in the general population occurring in August. From mid-September onwards the virus spread from the North, West, and Wales to the South, East, and Scotland. One GP recalled ‘we were amazed at the extraordinary infectivity of the disease, overawed by the suddenness of its outset and surprised at the protean nature of its symptomatology.’
And in the UK, there was a recession:
Not only was £10 000 000 spent on sickness benefit, but also with factories, offices and mines closed the economy was hit: ‘Setback in Production — “Recession through Influenza”’ (Manchester Guardian, 29 November).
In the US there was a recession as well. But be careful attributing it to H2N2:
We haven’t found any sources that link the Asian Flu of 1957-58 with the 1958 Recession and the associated Bear Market directly, but there is strong evidence of a connection.
What mitigation efforts were in place?:
Measures were generally not taken to close schools, restrict travel, close borders, or recommend wearing masks. Quarantine was not considered to be an effective mitigations trategy and was ‘‘obviously useless because of the large number of travelers and the frequency of mild or inapparent cases.’’ Closing schools and limiting public gatherings were not recommended as strategies to mitigate the pandemic’s impact, except for administrative reasons due to high levels of absenteeism….
Despite the large numbers of cases, the 1957 outbreak did not appear to have a significant impact on the U.S. economy.
Well, COVID-19 has certainly had a significant economic impact so far. But the impact (so far) hasn’t been from the illness itself, but from the efforts to mitigate it, and the fear that’s been aroused by the projections. Perhaps those projections are right; perhaps they’re wrong. But they’ve certainly had an effect.
And the other big cause of the economic downturn has been what’s been happening – economically and healthwise – in so many other countries around the world. It’s been dramatic, and reported on inessantly by the 24-hour news cycle that didn’t exist in 1957.
The media and the Democrats are eager to continue to blame a lot of this on Trump, because it suits their purposes. But will a lot of the public buy it, particularly those in the middle? I have read for a long time that the only thing that can lead to a Democrat win in November is a recession. But this isn’t a normal recession. This is a worldwide recession from a worldwide calamity that Trump did not cause and Trump could not stop. Are people so eager for a scapegoat that they’ll blame him and want Joe Biden in charge? That’s my fear, but it seems completely illogical and I retain hope that it won’t be the result.
There are many months to go before November, and many things to play out.
Interesting times.
It’s been pointed out that the models give wildly different results depending on the parameters.
Again, the Diamond Princess. Two thirds of the passengers were over the age of 60 and in excess of 2/3 of the infected passengers were over 60. A pool of about 700 patients were infected with the virus, of whom just under half were asymptomatic. So, you had a pool of 360 passengers with symptomatic disease, of whom about 2/3 were over 60 (the old were more likely to be infected but less likely to show symptoms). Thus far, you’ve had 7 deaths among those 240 or so passengers (w/ 14 serious-critical cases unresolved at this time). The median age of those 240 passengers is around 71.
Both the virus and the economy worry me too.
Like you, I like to use history to help me understand the events of today. And after some historical research I learned the following key things:
1. The 2003 SARS-CoV epidemic was not a big event for the USA (8 cases, 0 deaths).
2. Outside of the USA, SARS-CoV had a high fatality rate (9+%).
3. We (USA) have very little collective experience with SARS on a large scale – unlike the Influenza (flu) virus.
The fact is we don’t even know what we don’t know. We have no historical experience with a) how to manage a SARS coronavirus outbreak – in the USA – on a large scale, and b) what to expect (ST & LT). And we are scrambling to make sense of the facts, etc. Our current actions – government and citizen – reflect all that.
I’ll add that leaders at all levels really have no choice but to plan for the worst. In part because they know this is not like the annual Influenza flu outbreak; which has been happening for so long that folks don’t even “blink” at 10K, 20K, 60K deaths (or blame the “leaders”).
• Facts with no History = Fear the Risk
• Facts with History = Understand the Risk
***
1) Coronavirus – COVID-19/ SARS-CoV2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) – Deaths: USA
• 2019-2020: 69 *** (6,705 deaths worldwide/ as of March 16, 2020)
2) Coronavirus – MERS-CoV (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) – Deaths: USA
• 2012-2020: 2 cases, 0 deaths *** (862 deaths worldwide)
3) Coronavirus – SARS-CoV (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) – Deaths: USA
• 2003: 8 cases, 0 deaths *** (774 deaths worldwide)
4) Coronavirus – “Common Cold” – Deaths: USA
• No data
5) Influenza Virus Deaths: USA
• 2019-2020: 22K (season not over)
• 2018-2019: 60K
• 2017-2018: 60K
• 2016-2017: 38K
• 2015-2016: 23K
• 2014-2015: 51K
• 2013-2014:
• 2012-2013: 56K
• 2011-2012: 12K
• 2010-2011:
• 2009: 12K [H1N1-Swine Flu Pandemic]
• 1968: 34-100K [H3N2-Hong Kong Flu Pandemic]
• 1957: 70-116K [H2N2-Asian Flu Pandemic]
• 1918: 675K [H1N1-Spanish Flu Pandemic]
What a brutal day. Four young relatives have lost their jobs in the last two days including a couple with a two year old.
Unemployment will probably be between 15-20% by the early May report. It was 3.5% in last report. Something this devastating this fast can’t be undone. People’s jobs, businesses, savings lives ruined. The economic damage is going to be massively larger than the actual virus. After this some form of socialism is almost a certainty. The odds of Trump being re-elected seem extremely low to me. It’s not that people will blame him necessarily but if their lives have been ruined how can you possibly double down on the guy that led us into this. I’m in blue state so it doesn’t matter how I vote but there is no way I vote for him. Sit out presidential election.
Someone willing to destroy the economy on the advice of a bunch doctors we had never heard of and very theoretical models in unacceptable to me.
Do nothing or destroy the economy were not the only two choices. Plenty of things could have been done and explained in a way to make people realize the seriousness of the situation. Would it have worked? I don’t know but I know destroying the economy won’t work.
Griffin:
Are you kidding me?
Why don’t you just vote for Biden and get it over with? I’m sure that will be better.
The economy – the markets, etc. – are crashing in every country worldwide. Why on earth do you insist on Trump being the fault? All countries are doing much the same thing in response, and whether they do it or not, do you think businesses would have survived anyway if they involve contact with the public? Most things being shut are as a result of local decisions as well, not federal ones.
And it boggles my mind that you not only think socialism is inevitable at this point but refuse to fight against it.
I share that fear.
neo,
I would never vote for Biden and in Washington it doesn’t matter anyway. I will vote for lots if not all other Republicans down ballot.
Here’s why I think more socialism is coming. Douglas Murray in his recent book talks about how after almost every big economic downturn we see massive shifts in the beliefs of the people most affected. Hence the rise in support for socialism among the young most greatly hurt by the last recession because they missed out on so much and have been saddled with tons of student debt and have not seen the growth they perceive that earlier generations did. I’m not saying they are right but that is the perception. And now with this a similar thing could happen as we allow the government to take over our lives like no other time except the Civil War. Trump has portrayed himself as a business man president which I have no problem with but if the economy collapses under him why would anyone say give me more of that?
How am I refusing to fight against it?
Again there are measures that should have been done but there also exists a sense of personal responsibility that should have been considered.
I am not blaming him for this anymore than I blamed Bush for 9/11 but he does bear responsibility for the response. And so far the response is doing way harm than the virus we don’t even totally understand.
Why on earth do you insist on Trump being the fault?
They’ve rotated out Manju and Montage, it would appear.
“It’s not that people will blame him necessarily but if their lives have been ruined how can you possibly double down on the guy that led us into this.” Griffin
Our daughter just lost her job (breadwinner of the household of 3, 9 year old daughter) of 11 years. I can assure you, the LAST person we in the family who care deeply for her blame is President Trump. I guess you can join the band that blames this man for anything and everything. Because he is a man of courage, and took the public hit for closing off travel to China in January, we are not experiencing the travesty of Italy. Instead of being thankful, you throw barbs and clutch your pearls. Very sad.
Hence the rise in support for socialism among the young her greatly hurt by the last recession
Actually, the rapid shift in allegiances among the young (from a 50-50 split in 2000 to a 67-33 split in 2008) antedated the recession.
The peak unemployment rate at the end of 2009 was 9.9%. My contemporaries faced a peak unemployment rate of 10.8% at the end of 1982. Mr. Reagan won about 60% of voters under 25 in 1984.
Art Deco,
Give me a flippin’ break I’m far from some troll in fact before this I’d say I’ve been a pretty bland commenter here but I’m not gonna just merrily go along with Pom poms as the guy I voted for institutes or at least encourages some of the economically destructive policies in American history.
Are we required to blindly support everything our guys do even when we strongly disagree? That is one of thing I hate the most about the left how they go in lock step even if it requires totally flipping sides of an issue.
And I don’t think I’m the only one that wonders how destroying the lives of millions to save hundreds or maybe a few thousands. Something like 8,000 Americans dies every day from all kinds of things and I’m sure millions get sick everyday. Should we ruin the economy for them too?
Sorry but this episode has hit me more than any other in awhile.
“And I don’t think I’m the only one that wonders how destroying the lives of millions to save hundreds or maybe a few thousands.” Griffin
And the response to this by the public and the Democrat politicians is the President’s fault. How so? I live in California. I assure you our Mayor and Governor and the voting/non-voting public are responsible for every travesty in this circumstance…not the President.
Ok. I get I’m going to be eviscerated like crazy on this which is fine. But I’m not saying the virus is Trumps fault that is ridiculous. But the fact is he does bare a certain responsibility for the response and the tone. And so do people like our dumbass governor Inslee here in Washington. And remember when Republicans hated bailouts? Well we are all going to have to love them now because that might be the only hope to stave off an even bigger downturn.
Trump has rightfully touted the economy and the stock market under his watch and rightfully so but we can’t all now say he’s some innocent bystander as it falls apart. Herbert Hoover wasn’t chiefly to blame for the Great Depression but he was blamed for making it worse through his policy responses.
Art Deco,
Disagree with me all you want but comparing me to some troll says more about you than me.
While we’re at it:
https://www.investopedia.com/student-loan-debt-2019-statistics-and-outlook-4772007
Mean current student loan balance per borrower is $35,000. I think the mean interest rate is just north of 5%.
There are as we speak $11,000 bn in home mortgage balances, spread out over 48 million households. That’s $230,000 per household, collateralized, with an interest rate north of 3.5% on average.
This will be known as the 2 trillion cold…
or the trillion dollar flu
[wars are cheaper, unless you count this as an economic war – and some are now doing so]
But the fact is he does bare a certain responsibility for the response and the tone.
It’s the Tone Police.
Herbert Hoover wasn’t chiefly to blame for the Great Depression but he was blamed for making it worse through his policy responses.
The Hoover Administration’s policy non-response generated the Depression. The annual measure of real per capita product in Britain was at its lowest in calendar year 1931, at which point it was 6.7% lower than that for 1929. That in the United States was at its lowest in 1933, when it was 31% lower than it was in 1929.
A Notable difference was that Britain devalued the pound in September 1931. A comparable act by the United States government was not undertaken until the Spring of 1933. There was a large increase in the demand for real balances in the U.S. after 1929 to which the monetary authorities did not respond. The monetary base declined slightly and there was an implosion in M1 as bank deposits evaporated in successive waves of bank failures. The Hoover Administration did not attempt to rescue the banks until the foundation of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation in 1932 and it was only in the Spring of 1932 that the Federal Reserve began open market operations to attempt to increase the supply of M1. You had tremendous deflation after 1929, which meant double-digit real interest rates and it meant escalating real wages; there was a novel disinclination to reduce nominal wages and the Hoover Administration was imploring industrialists to not do so. So the adjustment to declining revenues came largely in the form of layoffs.
Art,
I’m not talking about the tone of his voice I’m talking about the tone of his message. First he went on and on about how it was under control for weeks then in a matter of days it completely changed to virtual panic. I like a leader that is more even keeled not one that is all rosy then at the flip of a switch is all dire.
Are we required to blindly support everything our guys do even when we strongly disagree? That is one of thing I hate the most about the left how they go in lock step even if it requires totally flipping sides of an issue.
You’re not required to do anything. It’s advisable to keep your head and it’s advisable to argue in good faith. Trump is making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, as is every state governor in the country. We’ll get some sense in the coming weeks if these were the right calls. You’re pretending you know. You don’t and we know you don’t.
I like a leader that is more even keeled not one that is all rosy then at the flip of a switch is all dire.
I like one who responds to data. Situations change.
Art,
Of course I don’t know when did I say I knew everything? And yes he is making decisions under uncertain conditions which is all the more reason to be more cautious. What if the models aren’t as dire as the ‘experts’ predict? Taking some of the most drastic measures in US history while uncertain about the actual situation seems pretty risky.
This goes for these governors and others also this for me isn’t only about Trump but about all our leaders who are taking insanely risky actions for a very uncertain situation. Trump is just the most high profile.
which is all the more reason to be more cautious.
Non sequitur.
“The economy – the markets, etc. – are crashing in every country worldwide. Why on earth do you insist on Trump being the fault? … And it boggles my mind that you not only think socialism is inevitable at this point but refuse to fight against it.” – Neo
Such a trumpian response.
It boggles the mind how people cannot admit that Trump has any responsibility for virtually anything and that if someone points out how Trump may have been deficient in some way, somehow that means they are refusing to fight socialism.
What a misreading of what Griffin is saying!!
I think he is giving a fair reading of the situation.
Trump, as President, is supposed to lead – he has failed that dramatically here with his “responses” since the start.
It doesn’t matter a whit that similar is happening all over. People will look at the dissembling and false assurances, along with the late federal mobilization and ask themselves if they’ve been well led.
Just imagine if this happened on Obama’s watch, would we be excusing and defending him? Or, would folks be piling on saying what a mess he has led us to?
I HIGHLY doubt folks here would give Obama a pass in the exact same circumstances – if we are honest with ourselves here.
And that is the point, even if it is unfair, people will want someone to blame.
That Trump has been less a leader than he has been made out to be (despite what all the die hard Trump fans believe), and claims himself to be, will give voters who could be swayed a strong reason to vote for someone else, or stay home.
The larger the impact on people’s lives, the more they will move from Trump.
I’m just thankful it looks like it will be Biden rather than Sanders leading the Dem ticket, with this crisis yet to play out fully.
BTW, the “Overton Window” people want to talk about, is swinging WIDE open, as it looks like $1T+ more debt on the way.
Let’s all add to the “good times” annual deficits already inching up to $1T under Trump.
Who’s the Socialist now?
Trump, as President, is supposed to lead – he has failed that dramatically here with his “responses” since the start.
No, he has failed with the world’s chronic complainers, who are a majority in this country as we speak.
Art Deco:
Keep trying to talk Griffin away from the rhetorical ledge.
Griffin forgot to mention the FDR’s New Deal in his list of horribles that have been inflicted on the USA by progressives, and yes Hoover was a big part of the problem. So keep trying to calm Griffin down. He isn’t a Manju or Montage fill in, IMO. We in WA are screwed by the Dems who dominate and dictate, and are corrupt too.
Big Maq, well he is another Manju or Montage.
Big Maq:
Ah yes, I’m often accused of sounding “Trumpian.” It’s one of my most salient characteristics.
Big Maq:
Joe Biden, are you serious? Making Dementia Great Again, because America needs another Woodrow Wilson in the White House, total mental incapacity and the 25th Amendment in 2021 anyone?
What a choice for the Democrats: a Communist or Joe Biden.
Trump is human and to err is indeed human. He’s reacting to what might happen based on what his medical experts are saying.
But regardless of how badly he may do in this crisis, Biden as a puppet President with Obama’s top people pulling Biden’s strings or his VP assuming office… will be far, far worse than Trump in a second term.
Trading in Trump for the democrat is the equivalent of the proverbial “jumping from the pan into the fire”.
om,
I’m alright.
To further my point about socialism gaining from this. A lot of progressive or radical political changes have arisen from the ashes of major economic downtimes. Germany after WW1 and the Spanish Flu was ripe for someone like Hitler to reach a lot of angry displaced people and we know how that ended.
As om mentioned look at the New Deal which looked mighty appealing in the heart of the depression and was a massive shift in what American looked to the federal govt for.
Another would be the UK after WW2 when they swept Churchill out and NHS came to be. Nationalized medicine is a pretty major step.
I’d say it’s a virtual certitude that this virus will be used as proof positive for medicare for all and for a bunch of other things like Basic Income and far expanded sick leave. Once the camel gets its nose under the tent…
Major events like this have far ranging impacts that seem to get lost in charts and models of things we don’t really have all the facts about.
Yes, om, maybe being in the heart of this mess is affecting my attitude as we day by day curtail freedoms and many just shrug and say ok.
neo,
Well you did accuse me of refusing to fight against socialism ‘with no evidence’’ a couple hours ago which was kind of Trumpian. Lol
Griffin forgot to mention the FDR’s New Deal in his list of horribles that have been inflicted on the USA by progressives,
The Roosevelt Administration made good calls and bad calls. The net effect was that production levels rapidly improved over the period running from 1933 to 1941 (the contraction in 1937-38 excepted) and the country had fully recovered by the latter date in those terms. However, they did a number of things that induced the labor market to recover more slowly than it otherwise would have. Also, the post 1937 jurisprudence favored by his packed courts has proved an insuperable problem. The legal profession ruins everything.
To further my point about socialism gaining from this. A lot of progressive or radical political changes have arisen from the ashes of major economic downtimes. Germany after WW1 and the Spanish Flu was ripe for someone like Hitler to reach a lot of angry displaced people and we know how that ended.
No it wasn’t. During the period running from 1919 to 1933, the Communist Party received a median of about 12% of the vote and the revanchist-volkisch element around about 6.5%. It required a series of hammer blows to the economic well-being of the German populace (and, again, the red menace) for that element to build enough of a following to prevent the conventional political parties from ruling. It’s not hard to tick off the contingencies which allowed for Hitler. If any one of them had gone the other way, things in Germany might have gone differently. Bluntly put, the German political class kept f&*king up and the German constitution was deficient.
I’d say it’s a virtual certitude that this virus will be used as proof positive for medicare for all and for a bunch of other things like Basic Income and far expanded sick leave. Once the camel gets its nose under the tent…
The last pandemic gave way to ten years of conventionally whiggish federal policy.
Griffin; Art Deco:
And Italy, with socialized medicine, has done so marvelously.
Griffin:
In addition, Hitler finally came to power as a result of a Byzantine and not-at-all-inevitable-seeming back deal. See this and this.
In regards to Hitler I was referring more to the societal upheaval which made a large enough segment welcome to his message not as much the actual machinations of his rise.
That’s what I’m trying to say I guess is massive economic upheavals seem to make segments of society open to alternate ideologies because there is a sense the old way let them down. That’s Murray’s point about the last ten years and I think it’s got some merit.
“And I don’t think I’m the only one that wonders how destroying the lives of millions to save hundreds or maybe a few thousands.” Griffin
Perhaps Griffin is beginning to get a grip; I hope so.
“Who destroyed the lives of millions to save maybe a few thousands” is the most absurd remark I have run across in this whole deal.
You should study up on corona a bit, Griffin, and you should also recognize that the man in the White House is doing his best, IMHO at least. You want perfection in a human being?? Trump can’t make a vaccine and he can’t make an anti-viral. Trump didn’t crater the Dow, for Pete’s sake.
So who you gonna call? GhostBusters?
You sure have not offered any notions of which Trump decisions should be undone. You’re on the sidelines bitching and moaning is all.
Trump can’t make a vaccine and he can’t make an anti-viral. –Cicero
We keep hearing about COVID vaccines in the pipeline — like the H1N1 flu vaccine which happily emerged within a year back in 2009.
I hope so. I’m sure the tech has gotten better. So maybe so.
But COVID is a coronavirus, the type of virus behind the common cold, not a flu virus. We have never developed an effective vaccine for the common cold and not for lack of trying.
I’ll cross my fingers, but I suspect the chances for a COVID vaccine are slimmer than advertised.
Even Newsweek and the rest of the Dems could not fault him:
CALIFORNIA’S DEMOCRAT GOVERNOR PRAISES TRUMP’S RESPONSE TO CORONAVIRUS ON CRUISE SHIP: ‘EVERY SINGLE THING HE SAID THEY FOLLOWED THROUGH ON’
https://www.newsweek.com/californias-democrat-governor-praises-trumps-coronavirus-response-every-single-thing-he-said-1491294
I’m about ready to punch something the next time somebody complains about Trump’s handling of COVID-19 without acknowledging that his decision to ban travelers from China…WHILE THE DEMOCRATS AND THE MEDIA WERE OBSESSED WITH IMPEACHMENT…may very well be the single most important decision any leader anywhere has made in this crisis.
I’m also getting a little tired of Right Wing twitter getting caught up in worries about socialism and how the economy will be destroyed and this is all just a big power grab by the Left. Yeah, we might be overreacting to this situation a bit but underreacting could also destroy the economy, except with potentially millions of deaths on top of that. In a crisis, you look at the available facts and make the best decision you can. You absolutely DO NOT let ideological obsessions color your thinking.
Mike
Even Newsweek and the rest of the Dems could not fault [Trump]:
OBloodyHell: Like I said earlier, a couple of my old hippie-commune friends were impressed with Trump’s COVID address. It’s not the end of the cold civil war, but it’s not nothing either.
I think we should give Trump and our comrades to the left some credit for this.
COVID is a non-linear event — like 9-11. Uncharted territory. No one is going to get this right on the money unless he or she is lucky.
I think we should give everyone a break if they are responding in good faith. And we shouldn’t assume right off the bat that they aren’t.
“I have read for a long time that the only thing that can lead to a Democrat win in November is a recession. But this isn’t a normal recession. This is a worldwide recession from a worldwide calamity that Trump did not cause and Trump could not stop. Are people so dumb and so eager for a scapegoat that they’ll blame him and want Joe Biden in charge? That’s my fear, but it seems completely illogical and I retain hope that it won’t be the result.” – Neo
We need to keep repeating this, against the propaganda of the Chinese and the Democrats-with-bylines.
People are always eager for a scapegoat, and they will take the one offered to them by the sources they trust – which, unfortunately for people like OldFlyer’s daughter and many of your friends, are exactly the same liars as in my first sentence.
https://www.thenewneo.com/2020/03/18/covid-19-explaining-south-korea-explaining-the-us/#comment-2484995
My initial reaction about “socialism taking over” is that what we have seen in China, Italy (and other countries with national health care), and our own FDA/CDC is that every sentient American should have ample proof of the dangers and deficiencies of socialist types of governments, whereas the operation of capitalist economies when freed of regulatory stumbling blocks is phenomenal.
That sounds like a cue for a Harrison Bergeron link, doesn’t it?
How about some feel-good non-government-mandated-action stories instead:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/18/brewdog-begins-making-hand-sanitiser-shortages-uk
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/17/uk-manufacturers-regear-factories-build-ventilators-nhs
huxley:
I’ve never read anything that indicates it’s not possible to develop a vaccine for a coronavirus such as COVID. SARS was a related coronavirus, and they were developing several vaccines but abandoned them because the disease burned out before they got to the finish line (see this).
On the other hand, the common cold is caused by a rhinovirus, but not just one. So any vaccine for “the common cold” would face the drawback of having to combine an enormous number of rhinoviruses, and it presents a lot of technical challenges. In addition, colds don’t ordinarily kill people so it’s not cost-effective to spend enormous time, energy, and money on a vaccine. See this.
The coronavirus has several variants that can cause a cold, or a cold-like illness. I don’t think there’s any particular technical drawback to trying to create a vaccine for a particular coronavirus variant that causes that sort of illness, but it wouldn’t be cost-effective because the illnesses are usually self-limited and mild, and in addition each variant only affects a relatively small percentage of all the people getting colds.
“I think we should give everyone a break if they are responding in good faith. And we shouldn’t assume right off the bat that they aren’t.”- huxley
Don’t retire Hanlon’s Razor, eh?
Maybe there isn’t any malice involved, but, in some places, I’m seeing a goodly amount of stupidity in action.
Went on to Neo’s next post and got a support from this:
https://www.thenewneo.com/2020/03/18/diamond-princess-mysteries/#comment-2485014
I just left this comment in the thread about South Korea and the U.S. It fits better here.
Interesting note. A bank where I have some of my money sent me an e-mail today. They are allowing those who are affected by the coronavirus temporary work stoppage (and that’s what it is a temporary event – we are assured by Dr. Fauci) to defer payments on auto and home loans for 120 days without penalty. I don’t know how many other banks are getting on this bandwagon, but it strikes me as eminently sensible. The banks are well capitalized, the Fed is willing to back them up, and the federal and state governments are going to put unemployment benefits and cash into the hands of those laid off. If you look at it as a month long vacation (or even three month long vacation) for the people in the 1/3 of the economy that is affected, it doesn’t look quite so disastrous, especially if most of those laid off have some money to pay their bills and/or get some forbearance from their creditors.
The Fed is going to help the corporations (airlines, cruise lines, and hotels) with loans and most restaurants/other small businesses will get loans from the SBA. Actually, we might be able to get back to the business of America in three months and start recovering.
This should be a good lesson for everyone. Don’t get too leveraged. Six months of expenses in savings is a good rule for anyone. Do that before you put a dime in the stock market.
A few thoughts…. the Trump administration is reacting to a very fluid situation. Since when do we blindly follow the plans of experts? Griffin has a point. Destroying the economy never produces happy trails.
Personally, we have a sound financial base. Yes, equities have suffered. But, we have $20,000 and counting cash reserves, 2×4 rental properties, house has been mortgage free since 2000, and we have a strong family. And, I am a prepper.
Think ahead.
One should also think of Now and Then (aka the future) if we allow Democrats to have power ever again.
J.E. Dyer
https://libertyunyielding.com/2020/03/18/americas-biggest-urban-areas-prepare-to-go-soft-on-crime-as-states-put-national-guard-on-alert/
Doc Zero
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239894729665511425.html
Who here is wanting Democrats to take over the federal government? That is limited to a couple of trolls. I don’t agree with Griffin 100%, but do understand his perspective. I too think tanking the economy is the desire of the left. The left wants millions to die and the collapse of the economy because orangemanbad. Wherever the mob is going, I do a 180.
I think some of us here have been a little too hard on Griffin. In the past he has been a thoughtful and sensible commenter. I have enjoyed reading his perspective in the past. The stress from what is now happening affects us differently. Keep in mind also where he lives. In Seattle, he no doubt feels that he is one of the last Mohicans. Griffin, no time to panic, steady on. We will get through this.
I echo Xyl, I live in rural Iowa and we think you all are crazy. Deja vu all over again. Panademices, been there before, most of us survived. Panic, no thank you. Grow up. TEOTW is not near.
It’s estimated that H2N2 caused 110,000 deaths in the US all told. That’s a lot of deaths, too. In fact, since the population of the US at that time was just about half of what it is now, the deaths then were the equivalent of today’s 220,000. That’s higher than those low-range estimates the models give for COVID-19, although considerably lower than the high-end predictions.
The main justification for crashing the economy with shutdowns is that otherwise our medical resources will be overwhelmed. We’ll run out of ventilators and ICU beds and have to let people die. Did that happen in 1957? Apparently not. From that piece that Neo links on the US experience:
What was so different in 1957? Why are all the decision-makers convinced that the hospitals will be overwhelmed when they weren’t in 1957? Is it that COVID-19 sufferers have to remain hospitalized for longer periods of time?
This was particularly interesting:
The more things change…
A shopping report from Northeastern Illinois.
Both Whole Foods and Jewel-Osco ( was local … not sure who owns it now ) now have ‘senior hours’.
We went this morning to pick up fresh fruit and bread. No problem with the fruit. Bread had not been totally restocked but we did find an acceptable alternative.
The paper goods section –TP and paper towels– was about half-stocked and was limited to no more than one package per shopper(s) Who, like us, were mostly couples.
We didn’t need TP but did pick up 2 rolls, one package, of paper towels.
Everyone was extremely polite while shopping and waiting in line. We ran into to the Pastor Emeritus of our church and he asked IF WE WERE DOING OK. He was still shepparding his flock.
Not sure what the shopping will be like for later arrivals.
—
JJ & Parker – interestingly we are spending less now that we’re ‘sheltering in place’. So we’ve made modest donations to local food banks and homeless shelters on-line.
Be well everyone. And no fighting! 🙂
I have been a defender of Griffin. I’m a trained pessimist (hope for the best, plan for the worst) which comes from years of doing experimental work where 90% of your time is trying to avoid mistakes, or figuring out how everything got so cocked up. It also comes from being trained to be skeptical of all results. I look at situations and try to project out along worst case scenarios. From what I see, the governments (local, state, feds) are going down a path that COULD lead to an economic collapse and social destabilization, and I think that’s what Griffin sees also. And the longer this panic goes on, the more likely that is going to happen. As Neo stated in an earlier post, we’ve changed from a risk tolerant culture, to a 100% risk adverse culture; we’re all snowflakes now. I’m trying to keep my normal routine during the day, but every once in a while the fear of these projections catch up with me (usually after the mistake of tuning into TV news), and I totally understand where Griffin is coming from.
I don’t care a wit about the virus other than avoiding people who are obviously sick, and practicing good hygiene. The data just doesn’t make me think this is all that bad; maybe that will change. The mass hysteria scares me a helluva lot more.
On the other hand, the common cold is caused by a rhinovirus, but not just one. So any vaccine for “the common cold” would face the drawback of having to combine an enormous number of rhinoviruses, and it presents a lot of technical challenges. In addition, colds don’t ordinarily kill people so it’s not cost-effective to spend enormous time, energy, and money on a vaccine. See this.
My recollection is that microbiologists discovered around about 1985 a single antigen common to cold viruses. They also discovered that it couldn’t be the hook to a vaccine because on the surface of cold viruses, this antigen is located down a pit so and so many Angstrom units deep, where it’s not detectable to your immune system. IIRC, there was a brief article in The Economist about it.
There was no economic collapse between 1918 and 1921, at a time when you had a death toll of 675,000 concentrated among working adults, when you had the disruptions of military demobilization, and when you had a spate of contractionary monetary policy. You had a disagreeable and prolonged recession, but no collapse.
“I don’t care a wit about the virus other than avoiding people who are obviously sick, and practicing good hygiene. The data just doesn’t make me think this is all that bad; maybe that will change. The mass hysteria scares me a helluva lot more.” physicsguy
This describes me and my entire family (kids/their spouses in the 30-39 range). But by-and-large it is the media and the Democrats driving the hysteria. On the basis of what do I declare this? Every leftist I know (and I know a lot of them) has bought into it and embracing the “shelter-in-place, to hell with the economy, who cares what the data really tell us, more please” position. In my son’s neighborhood in the East Bay on Nextdoor he read a woman’s post where she wanted to know if there was a number to call to report people who are outside. I’m at the office today and wondering when Los Angeles is going to declare that no construction can go on in the city despite the fact that we work in individual single-family homes where the residents are not present. My daughter lost her job yesterday because the small dress design company she has worked at for 11 years which was finally looking good following a financial downturn under the Obama presidency suffered the cancellation of their orders for the upcoming season and the Owner finally threw in the towel. Fall-out.
Thanks, Griffin, for stating a fairly clear position fairly strongly:
‘There are economic problems. Trump is President. Trump is responsible for the economic problems.’
That’s not quite what you said, but that’s the message. From you and most Dems.
Do nothing or destroy the economy were not the only two choices.
Similarly,
“The mass hysteria scares me a helluva lot more.” physicsguy
I mostly disagree. Neither Trump nor any Dem can save a dead person – Trump’s actions are all about minimizing the number of dead people.
Big economic hit? Yes. And, if Trump’s policy is successful, there will be few dead Americans, so it will be easy to blame Trump for “too much”.
So he’s throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at the economy, short term, to avoid econ collapse. I’m sure there will NOT be collapse. There will be a big increase in US national debt, but with near 0% interest rates, interest costs are also not far from zero, no matter how much debt. (This is another long term problem.)
Still, lots of marginal businesses will go under – or their owners will give up working so hard for so little profit as an owner, and look for an easier job that pays more reliably in a firm others own. Like most college grads now do (Too many – not enough are starting their own firms. It’s hard. It’s really hard!)
It’s called a shakeout. But Trump’s econ stimulus, giving normal folks cash, is most likely to minimize the mid- and long-term econ problems.
Once the “crisis” is over.
Which we still don’t know when that will be — I don’t trust China. Tho S. Korea and Diamond Princess are far more positive looking, right now. 2 weeks, 3, a month. No collapse, and mostly adjustments.
Finally, those who blame Trump without specifying some alternative policy are just complaining. Trump WAS leading, against Dem “experts”, in closing travel to China early. Even more, with tariffs against China to push diversification away for dependency on China – again against most econ “experts”, including both Dem and Rep economists who mostly agree on the advantages of (real) Free Trade.
Now Trump is leading with bailouts and stimulus. So for those complaining about Trump — what policies did somebody else propose that Trump didn’t do that the complainers think should have been done? That should be the question – what should Trump have done?
Without an alternative policy that seems better, it’s just complaining. Of snowflakes. (By snowflakes, for snowflakes. Far too flaky.)
(I’d like Trump to require that all colleges getting Federal Loans and/or non-profit status have all their lectures on-line, and available for free…)
It’s one thing to predict that Trump will face rough seas politically, because voters are irrational, and another for someone to say he’s going along. Not “blaming” Trump but holding him responsible and taking any action, including passivity, that’s likely to get Biden elected? I just can’t understand the point. Local authorities are making decisions to shut down public gatherings, even at the risk of economic damage. Time may tell whether they were right, or we may be arguing about something unknowable for a long time. In the meantime, our federal chief executive is taking a number of actions designed to lessen the blow, including triggering the Defense Production Act, which I hope will be used to ensure the production of ventilators and effective treatment drugs, of which we now are aware of several. I suspect he’ll also be taking aggressive action to ensure the continued supply lines of food and household items. I’m more determined to vote for Trump than ever. In my wildest dreams I can’t imagine Biden being this effective. I still remember the pitiful, politicized federal response to the Deepwater Horizon disaster, when the White House couldn’t even see its way clear to relaxing Jones Act restrictions on clean-up boats.
NEWS Flash! FDA has approved chloroquine for use in treating coronavirus. They are also close to approving Remsdvir and other anti-virals that are used to treat other viral diseases. I’m cautiously optimistic that this will maker a huge difference going forward. Cheers! But keep washing your hands and staying safe. 😉
“Why are all the decision-makers convinced that the hospitals will be overwhelmed when they weren’t in 1957?”
Because China. And fervid imagination. Also a bit of, “…but if it saves one life” thrown in for good measure.
J.J.
Toilet paper hoarders severely impacted, news at 11. TP futures tank.
But seriously, good news.
J.J.:
I will assume that a lot of pressure was brought to bear on the FDA. A lot.
Art Deco:
Agree – a recession, not a collapse in 1918.
Maybe some people think the two are the same?
There was also a recession at the time of the 1957 Asian flu (H2N2). But the economics say that one was unrelated to the flu pandemic.
Griffin , you noticed something important.
Trum is not fighting the virus, he is fighting what he calls the “Invisible enemy”, which is in other words the Deep State/Cabal invisible war.
He is reacting to what the Cabal is doing. Likely some aerosol chemical trail deployment that will make things worse. Although the safest bet is still on 5g radiation transmission causing a second trigger in a bio warfare weapon.
Neo: “I will assume that a lot of pressure was brought to bear on the FDA. A lot.”
My assumption as well.
OM “Joe Biden, are you serious?”
I am dead serious.
If this does Trump in, are you saying Sanders is better?
As Griffin points out, events like this create a restless movement for drastic change – change that was previously unthinkable.
Start the Dem primaries today, instead of when it did – would Biden be able to carry through? Much more dicey.
We are f’n lucky it is Biden, before all the debris hit the fan.
And it is not looking good for Trump, no matter if we think it “fair” or not.
On that point… This is the type of thing that Trump has done to himself for his electoral prospects, let alone the question of leadership on this problem:
https://www.nytimes.com/video/opinion/100000007038780/trump-lies-about-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Yes, it is NYT. We worry here about how the MSM lies, but really should our eyes only be in that direction?
Is this video a bunch of lies the MSM is making up?
Was Trump being honest with us when he said these things?
Did we give Obama a pass or an excuse when he said “If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor”?
Since our politics have left the realm of consistency, ideas, and accountability, there is no value in pointing exclusively to the Dems or the MSM any more.
That just becomes a meaningless team sport, as there is no credibility behind it.
It won’t move the needle in elections for the people that hold that swing vote.
Fear and uncertainty will. We now have plenty of it.
The specter of doubt on Trump has been raised, completing the FUD.
If Trump wins, it will be in spite of himself. It will be the spineless obsequious establishment GOPe machine that does it for him.
So, heck yes, I am thankful Biden is the one who will be facing him vs Sanders.
I’m not sure many can hold there nose anymore for Trump.
“I still remember the pitiful, politicized federal response to the Deepwater Horizon disaster, when the White House couldn’t even see its way clear to relaxing Jones Act restrictions on clean-up boats.” – Wendy
I had forgotten that, but I remember being deeply incredulous at the time.
I literally thank God every morning that Hillary Clinton is not president.
Big Maq;
Vote for cognitive decline, it suits you, it seems.
You haven’t learned anything since 2016. I have.
Yep, fundamental transformation is needed, eh?
Only a tool cites the NY Times.
OM – resort to name calling, and dismissiveness, fine.
Regardless of what one thinks of NYT, video is video – Trump said the things on that video – you cannot deny that. And, with this particular video it is extremely hard to argue that each quote is “out of context”, or some other excuse.
But, you can avert your eyes and ears because you disregard the source – the left aren’t the only ones with their bubble.
.
Don’t see any cognitive dissonance – you are the one who implies Sanders is a better alternative to Biden, should Trump lose.
But, if you’ve learned since 2016 that “burn it all down” is a good thing, then, I guess I see your point, but will *Emphatically* disagree that path holds any goodness for us.
It IS looking like it will be a much different world on the other side – let’s see where the public mood takes us then.
.
By not ever holding Trump accountable for much of anything, it comes across as hypocritical as the left has ever been – the right’s argument loses loads of credibility, while Trump loses any remaining good will.
Then this happens.
Just know that there are plenty who are not in the left or right bubbles, on which this next election swings.
Don’t know what you think will happen, but, yea, dismiss this all.
Best o luck to ya and the rest of the crowd here. We all are gonna need it!
.
BTW – Mislabel me if it makes you feel better, but I’m not a leftist or Dem supporter in the least.
But I do now see how hair trigger thin the wall towards sudden disaster society can fall into.
Poor, (doggedly) unaccountable leadership and a crisis – people will be ready for radical change.
.
Is Griffin “losing his mind” as someone said, at stating what this crisis can mean – I think not at all!
I don’t often come back here, rarely comment, but Griffin’s point was just so spot on (with what seems a large number of people – not completely in the tank for one side or the other – are thinking) and the response from the host was just so unlike the reasonable debates of pre-2016. Sad!
But it fits with the overall tone and approach this site has taken since that election.
More bubble than informative, enlightening, and original.
Instead, a drumbeat of how awful the left and the Dems are (I think we get that by now with the never ending examples), never looking beyond and wondering if the right is not also guilty of some of the same – rarely a word said.
No longer about ideas – team sport pile on all the way.
Sad!