Trending Trump
11:12 PM
Fox just called Florida for Trump, and that’s why I decided to start a new thread. The reason? Florida is absolutely key to any chance of a Trump victory, and Florida was close.
When elections happen, there are trends for close states. So far, the trend is Trump, and Florida is the evidence.
It’s not over, but something is happening. That “something” seems to be the deep dissatisfaction with both the Obama administration and Hillary Clinton herself. That is true whoever wins. And it was something all of us who follow politics have been aware of for many many years.
Nail-biter.
As I’ve said many times, I’ll be unhappy whoever wins. That’s not because I’m a gloomy sort, it’s because I think both candidates were and are dreadful. One thing I’m happy about, however, is what looks increasingly like a Republican hold on the Senate, although it will be close.
A long time ago—back in August of 2015—I wrote this about the Trump candidacy:
From the start of Trump’s rise in the polls I’ve taken him very seriously as a phenomenon. I haven’t understood those who casually asserted “He’s never going to win the nomination.” I’ve long thought he could, because the force of that appeal is obvious, and he’s somehow made himself immune to being criticized for anything he says…
If I were one of the other Republican candidates I’d be very very scared.
That turned out to be correct. But what I wrote right after that turned out to be correct, too:
And if I were one of the Democratic candidates I’d be scared, too.
Well, as I write this on Election Eve, I think the Democratic candidate is very very scared. Whoever ends up winning.
I’m scared, too, and I was going to be scared whoever won. I see the country as more deeply and bitterly divided than ever in my lifetime. I see our elected officials as being worse than those who have gone before in so many ways I cannot even list them. That does not change with a Trump victory and a Hillary loss, nor does it change with a Hillary victory and a Trump loss.
12:21 AM
On Fox, a pundit (I don’t know her name) just said that, of the people who thought neither candidate was qualified to be president, about 69-70% went for Trump. Interesting.
If some of the states still outstanding end up with razor-sharp margins, there could be recounts and doubt for quite a while. It will also be very disturbing to the nation if (as happened in 2000), one person (in this case, Clinton) wins the popular vote and one (in this case, Trump) wins the electoral vote. But our system always includes that possibility.
The markets are way down.
Chris Wallace asks, “Has there ever been a president that’s been a bigger shock?” Answer: “no.”
1:27 AM
Toomey has been projected to be the winner in the Senate race in Pennsylvania, which means that the Senate will remain in Republican hands.
*groan*
I would also factor in hatred of the MSM.
NYT gives Trump an 88%, no now 94% chance of winning.
The presses are spinning up— Dewey Wins!
Looks like he is going to do it, but I think we will see recounts in WI and NH maybe MI, so could be 2000 x 3
The major difference is like the chicken vs the egg in which comes first, with Hillary being the chicken and Trump being the egg. The chicken is a realized something, while the egg is a potential something and for all the fears, that potential is not as bad as the fears make them out to be.
There is no way to do the kind of business he does and be a cheat, or many other things that were said. It just doesnt happen as you need things that a soros or many others dont need, and that is trust. yes, the little people dont trust him, but they dont know him.
soros does not make anything, and his ventures have nothing to do with the kind of personality he has and the level of trust in terms of getting everyone on board and closing and moving forwards.
this is a major difference between the different categories. the bankers dont make things and their deals are much akin to moving pieces and they can tolerate negative people to the point of crooked people as they do their deals and thats that.
but its a lot different if your building things and hammering out deals with other peoples money and the subject of that deal is something being made in which many levels of people from many stations in life have to come together.
in the irish times ariticle the people of the town where he built the golf course spoke highly of him in many ways, including that when he bought the property for the course, he also made good on the payments that were owed to locals for work they did that they had not been payed for by the prior owners. he was up and up and straight up.
you can have the belief you want, but i have worked with such people and not just one, and almost to a T the common people way down and who dont know them say all kinds of things that are basically flights of fancy and imagination and have very little in terms of reality behind the ideas.
given how much he loves his family name, and other things i think he will suprise people… at the very least it will be easy for him to beat the assumptions as they are so low…
Neo, I have expressed my reservations about Trump; but, I recently read an artilce by Professor Paul Rahe. He pointed out that Trump’s background in Reality TV played a big role in his over the top demeanor. He goes on to say that he doesn’t think that many of his statements are definitive. Tonight, someone on FNC–I think it may have been Brit Hume–said that the latter part of Trump’s campaign was pretty Presidential.
I should have shorted SPY.
Senate races in MO, NH are leading GOP with >50% votes in. Add AK and GOP retains majority in the Senate.
So, is this a “margin of error” election, or were the polls completely off?
Well, color me surprised but it looks like djt, as weird and bombastic as he is, has (perhaps) won the ECV vote. I humbly admit I was wrong. I never thought this was possible. But, if djt is our next POTUS, I will await to learn if he will secure the borders, protect the 2nd, and nominate a Constitutionalist to SCOTUS.
The country is going to pot.
Add Arizona and California to the list of pothead states.
Artfldgrs wrote:
“The major difference is like the chicken vs the egg in which comes first, with Hillary being the chicken and Trump being the egg. The chicken is a realized something, while the egg is a potential something and for all the fears, that potential is not as bad as the fears make them out to be.”
That’s a good thought. At least, it is one I share.
Apparently lots of Americans still retain the capacity to distinguish between painfully obvious criminality a la Clintons and brash windbaggery a la Trump. I think Trump has the capacity to grow into the job, should he win, but Hillary will always be criminal, rotten through and through. She makes Nixon look like a Dollar Store shoplifter. Trump could be our Pinochet.
But we shall see.
Trump 254 Clinton 209
boy is it close…
how horrible if he makes us eat crow and he does well
wouldn’t that be a piss…
the talking heads are confused, so confused
he got Wisconsin! (Really?)
Florida is his
North Carolina is his
Ohio is his
Michigan so far looks to be his but its not final yet he is ahead two points so far, and if he gets it it may put him over.
Buckle up for tomorrow market opening but its not going to be rational as the actual effect going forward is not necessarily earth shattering for the market.
“Trump could be our Pinochet.”
Maybe it’s just me, but that is nothing to celebrate.
AND, I highly doubt voting trump as a repudiation of clinton is a mandate for a Pinochet model.
Frog,
We shall see. I do not normally, await national election results so closely; but it has been a weird season.
89% of the Penn. vote is counted and Mrs. Clinton leads by a mere 0.1%, 48.3% to 48.2%.
On the other hand, any combination of Trump winning Mich. ends the thing in his favor.
Oh wait, in the time it took to type that Penn. has moved to 90% in, and Trump to a 0.1% lead, 48.3 to 48.2. Squeaky close.
Now, it looks down to PA. Too close to call.
Either way, looks like may be auto recounts in two or more states. Will it really be settled tonight?
Lou Dobbs– “If Donald Trump hadn’t come along we would be in severe mortal danger”
He’s bullish on Trump.
Jack Welch said he thought Trump’s economic plan could revive the economy. 4% growth.
We need 4% growth.
Everyone discounted the blue
collar workers. If it plays out, Trump attracted the same Reagan democrats.
How that coalition plays out over the next four years will be interesting. If he doesn’t deliver on the economy, that coalition will evaporate.
Big Maq:
I would encourage you to read up on Allende, Pinochet and Chile. Pinochet saved Chile from radical socialism, turned it into a prosperous, constitution-abiding country, privatized its FDR-style social security and did many other things the Left opposed.
So of course the Leftist media despised him, as did the Euro-socialists who run the EU and the so-called International Court of Justice, where the trial of one man, e.g. Karadich (?sp) of Serbia, takes years. No juries either.
“We need 4% growth. “
Agree.
Not sure how we get there if trump wins, and he follows through on trade “renegotiations” and on “disputes” with China. There are always two sides to those, and squeezing one side does not leave the other untouched.
Of course, it all depends on what he would actually do.
“.. what he would actually do.”
Yes, that is the question if he wins. We shall see, and that is up for grabs, if.
Sleep well neo and the commenters and lurkers. I finished the bottle of termperanillo and will snuggle up with Mrs parker.
parker:
Well, sleep well yourself.
But I can assure you that I won’t be going to sleep for a while.
Artfl +100. I’ve met a number of men who built very large companies and to a man they have the kind of personality that makes you want to like them.
The MSM is having a collective melt down. Every single one of the talking heads on the major networks is behaving as if they were attending a funeral. Listening to them is making my blood boil. There’s some fool on PBS who’s claiming that the American public has a totalitarian impluse. That’s rich when there is no issue too small for a DC government program and higher taxes to be run by Democrats. The Democrats are the definition of totalitarians, “Everything inside the state, nothing outside the state, no one against the state”.
Well, I got this one wrong and am surprised as anyone. Actually I think it is Bush’s fault because he got the American electorate all whipped up about hope and change and then Obama went and disappointed them. We got sold a saviour and instead we got the medical industrial complex and the battle of Mosul over and over again. So now we have taken our chances on the dubious egg, the known unknown, over the known funky chicken. God Bless America – we are chancers in the end. And God bless Glen Doherty and Tyrone Woods and all the men who died taking Mosul the first time.
Big Maq:
“Not sure how we get there if trump wins, and he follows through on trade “renegotiations” and on “disputes” with China. There are always two sides to those, and squeezing one side does not leave the other untouched.”
This highlights that conservatives are on center stage now for the needs of the nation and up against their social political obsolescence.
If Trump wins, the Democrats-front Left won’t learn anything beneficial for the nation.
If they were capable of learning for the good of the nation, there would have been a center-left NeverHillary movement. If the Democrats lose up and down the election, the Left will be spiteful, but they’ll fall back on narrative and their other redoubts rather than moderate.
The Trump phenomenon engineered by Left-mimicking alt-Right activists will have won the Presidency under GOP banner by defeating conservatives and then the Democrats-front Left by using the Left’s playbook as the insurgent.
If Trump wins, I expect they’ll treat conservatives like leftists treated liberals in their takeover. Utilize conservatives as needed or useful while herding conservatives towards conversion or replacement.
For the good of the nation and their own sake, conservatives need to diversify, like leftists, with social activist movement independent of the GOP. Establish a conservative insurgency.
Obamacare: gone.
Supreme Court: constitutionalist majority for 2-3 decades
Immigration: reasonable restrictions & requirements
Trade: reasonable equity
DOJ: clean out the nest of vipers
FBI: replace the director
Bureaucracies: limits & sunsets
IRS: review current & past personnel & de-weaponize
DOD: reinforce sane military culture and end PC inroads
Rule of law: appoint special prosecutor NOW
…somehow I fumbled a keystroke and that posted before I could My wish list lol
I wonder how many Sanders voters broke with the DNC and Clinton and voted Trump and if that made a difference.
Paul in Boston:
Well, they seem pretty cheerful at Fox.
Ace of Spades Decision desk calls it for Trump with AZ and PA putting him over the 270.
Basically, I hope this results in a clear path to cleaning up 8 years of incompetence, malfeasance, and contempt by the elites.
…a return to the Rule of Law.
So I’m taking a short (depends) LOA from my “let it burn” stance.
Yep. Returning to optimism.
Old neighbor Juan is way bent out of shape on Fox tonight; so bent out of shape he just attempted to argue that checks and balances are meaningless to Americans. Yeesh, man. Even a clumsy sophist wouldn’t make that charge with Rove, Hume, Stierwalt and the rest of that gang champing at the bit to bury him.
So far, network commentators have stated this is a repudiation of Reconstruction, the unexpected vote of under-educated rural people (mainly white), the result of a bigoted and racial campaign and the overwhelming misogynistic white male. Without that, Hillary was guaranteed a landslide.
Trump did better outside the cities. The fault in the polls could be they do a better job of reflecting opinion in urban areas for a variety of reasons.
Podesta tells crowd to go home. The races are too close to call and they won’t make anymore speeches or announcements tonight. Hillary won’t concede until all recounts are done.
As hard circumstance begins to dawn on them, think for a moment of the document shredding nightmares the PresidentPseudonym administration and their friendly bureaucracies are facing prior to an opposition power putting their hands on the evidence. Oy, such sleepless nights they’ll be looking forward to, the poor bastards.
eeyore,
The Left won’t learn. They won’t moderate. It’s not in their schema. A few individuals might tentatively attempt to be a voice of reason, but it won’t be picked up. As a collective, they’ll fall back on narrative and their other redoubts.
If the Democrats Left had sober self-awareness to muster, there would have been a center-left NeverHillary, like the center-right NeverTrump. But the Left has subdued center-left dissidents.
Did I call it or what?
brdavis9:
“Yep. Returning to optimism.”
Or, to play devil’s advocate, maybe he bears out the NeverTrump suspicion and approaches the presidency like a Democrat.
Cornhead for Nostradamus!
Now let’s hope you called it in terms of Trump’s ability to do the job.
Now the real test begins. I hope he listens to the more sober and experienced advisors he has, and tempers his narcissism and arrogance with some wisdom.
“Today, let’s show the world that love will always trump hate,” Clinton tweeted from her account Tuesday.
From the candidate who called people “deplorable” and “irredeemable.” Felt a lot of love from you and your supporters.
The best discussion tonight was MSNBC. It was fun watching Maddow get in an argument with Chris Mathews who defined why Trump is winning, much to her disgust because he lambasted Hillary as essentially the Democrat version of a two-faced hustler a la Trump. The other very intelligent analysis was from McCain’s former campaign manager, Steve Schmidt, who is no fan of Trump but is able to see his appeal. I agreed with his take that the Republican Party of Reagan is now dead after Trump’s coup d’etat. Schmidt may be smart but he’s disagreeable in the extreme. No wonder McCain lost.
I’m eating crow since I predicted Trump’s campaign was over after the bus video release. If he’s declared the winner, hope for the best. Who knows what we’ll get. That’s why the stock market is taking a dive. Rough water ahead.
Congratulations to us!!!!!!
Neo:
“Now the real test begins. I hope he listens to the more sober and experienced advisors he has, and tempers his narcissism and arrogance with some wisdom.”
What will Trump do now with the alt-Right?
alt-Right activists put Trump in the White House by adapting the playbook that Left activists used to put Obama in the White House.
Will Trump separate from the alt-Right? Or with their having proven their worth, will he continue to deploy their growing movement as ‘political’ leverage to effect his governance?
How did the Obama camp use the Left while in office?
My sleep patterns have been off lately, so I fell asleep after dinner. Now I’m wide awake after midnight and I missed the excitement.
Anyway, congratulations to President Trump and his supporters. I am relieved Hillary lost — she wasn’t quite the boot stamping a human face forever (an image from “1984”) but that’s how I felt about an HRC presidency after eight years of Obama
I would say Cornhead called it earlier with “the shy Trump voter.” Also the commenter who mentioned Brexit.
It is liberating to know big surprises are still possible and the story of America is not over nor will it be easily drained of its exceptionalism, at least not yet.
It’s going to take all of us to make the next 4 years successful and we can only do it together. Forget the past and concentrate on the future. It doesn’t matter how we got here, only where we go now.
I would also say pollsters have some splainin’ to do. I was spooked by Nate Silver’s 99% accuracy in 2008 and 2012 elections at the state level into believing he had perfected the formula.
This morning the Nate Silver forecast was 77%/28% favoring Clinton. Trump only topped Hillary once in the Silver forecast for about 15 minutes after the Rep convention.
Though 28% is still 1:3 odds, not great but not impossible either.
Clock is now ticking… I’ll give him from now until the end of his first 100 days to fulfill his agenda promises – after all, he has little to oppose him in Congress.
For many it is Xmas. They will now come to know what is in their chosen “gift”.
My husband and I went to Mass this morning, broke our time of fasting and prayer this evening with a delicious dinner and celebration cake, trusting the Lord with our country’s future. We are delighted that our desire that Hillary not win the presidency carried the day. We are thankful to God.
Parker – “I will await to learn if he will secure the borders, protect the 2nd, and nominate a Constitutionalist to SCOTUS.”
I’m not going to predict he will be perfect on those issues. I will predict he will be much better than Hillary ever would have been.
Well, that was quite a surprise. I knew the Reagan Democrats (blue collar workers, small business owners) were for Trump, but didn’t know if there were enough of them.
Our daughter and her business partner are both ecstatic. They will, eventually, be able to buy health insurance that meets their needs, at a cost they can afford. It’s refreshing to see their sense of relief and happiness.
My plans to adapt to a Hillary Presidency now have to be junked. I think I’ll sell my Ruger/S&W stocks. I may get back in the market. in a bigger way. Peter Navarro weighs in with this:
“Donald Trump’s economic plan is all about rapid growth. He will cut taxes, reduce regulation, unleash our energy sector, and eliminate our growth-sapping trade deficits. This solid, Reaganesque recipe for growth and a new bull market puts Dow 25,000 within easy reach.”
I just watched Paul Ryan’s speech this morning. He’s over the moon and very effusive in his praise for Trump. I see a good working relationship already beginning.
It’s a start. My prayer is that DJT will be wise and strong. And that the Founders’ checks and balances will work if.when he isn’t.
Paul in Boston Says:
November 9th, 2016 at 12:41 am
…There’s some fool on PBS who’s claiming that the American public has a totalitarian impluse. That’s rich when there is no issue too small for a DC government program and higher taxes to be run by Democrats. The Democrats are the definition of totalitarians, “Everything inside the state, nothing outside the state, no one against the state”.
* * *
For some reason, the Dems don’t think it’s totalitarian despotism when THEY are in charge, because (of course) they know what’s best for everyone.
It’s also one reason all their pundits and pollsters missed the boat.
Every human to me is a waiting totalitarian time bomb.