Middle East: the world is watching…
…and doing next to nothing as ISIS prepares to slaughter many of the remaining inhabitants of Kobani, a mostly Kurdish town on the border of Syria and Turkey:
…which is crammed with refugees””Kurdish, Turkmen, Christian, and Arab””from other parts of the Syrian charnel house. As many as 50,000 civilians remain in the town.
It’s not clear how many civilian residents are still in Kobani, however. This report indicates the above figure of 50K may be an overestimate, and only about 3,000 remain. Let’s hope the lower figure is correct.
It also describes Obama’s “strategy of containing the Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria” as now being “in ruins.”
I’m not sure you can dignify Obama’s response to ISIS as a “strategy” to “contain” ISIS, although that’s consistent with the way he describes it. It’s more like a tactic in the strategy of placating the American people with reassuring words so he can get through the 2014 midterm elections. And indeed, it may not be working.
But how on earth could anything like the following ever contain ISIS, or even a fighting group less determined than they, for that matter?:
There have been reports of airstrikes on ISIS vehicles, but so far, Bahjat [a Kurdish intelligence official] said that these strikes have been modest in scope and notably ineffective.
So we’re still bombing vehicles, when there are reportedly “9,000 ISIS terrorists armed with tanks and rocket launchers” assaulting the town.
But we’re not the only ones preparing to merely observe the slaughter:
Bahjat said he is receiving reports that Turkey is pulling its troops back, rather than risk armed confrontation with ISIS. “It’s unbelievable””Turkey is in NATO, so you literally have NATO watching what is happening in this town. Everyone can see it””the TV cameras are there, watching. It’s terrible.”
It’s not as though an ISIS victory wouldn’t affect the West, either, although that same West seems to have lost the will to act to prevent it. This is not just a humanitarian crisis, either, although it is certainly that. But in addition, the stronger ISIS gets, the closer to achieving its goal of a caliphate and the spread of sharia, the more money and weaponry it gains, the more recruits it attracts, the more likely it is to successfully pull off major terrorists attacks here.
We talk about leadership and how important it is. But never since Neville Chamberlain has it been so glaringly apparent that without it we flounder*. England was fortunate enough to have Churchill ready and waiting in the wings. We have two more years of President Obama.
[*I wrote “we flounder.” I hope it’s not the case that we founder.]
[ADDENDUM: More here.]
I can’t believe anyone who voted for Obama does not see his treachery on display. I am so downcast by what I am reading. But, unless and until the stories about the women Kurds who are killing themselves as a last resort are shown on ABC, CBS and NBC and are above the fold front page news, it is as if it never happened.
Goddamn, but this is hard to watch….
carl in atlanta:
It’s sickening.
I think even many liberals are having trouble with it. I’ve seen that on comments boards, too. I think a turning point for quite a few people may have been Obama’s statement after James Foley’s death, followed by Obama’s golf outing.
The “Nero fiddling while Rome burns” contrast was too jarring.
For Turks, the Kurds getting slaughtered is a feature not a bug.
Mr. Frank:
Yes.
For the first President Bush, we had Margaret Thatcher waiting in the wings, fortunately.
And it looks like David Cameron is trying, at least somewhat, to fill the same role. Of course, Obama couldn’t care less. He’s just not into it.
Biden is in hot water for telling the truth — as the White House sees it.
There is abundant evidence that ISIS is a proxy army for Erdogan. The Kurds are howling about it.
There will be no massacre: ISIS is squeezing the toothpaste out of the tube. That’s why al Baghdadi is squeezing in from all three sides at once.
ISIS now has a staggering advantage: the high ground over looking the town.
So… They’re holding up — to let the Kurds flee.
Which is only a matter of time.
Barry Soetoro is NOT using Hellfires to take out the numerous M-1 tanks reported to be shooting into the Kurds.
Doh!
The fact that our President didn’t even name ISIS in this phase of our military encounter is blatantly telling. “Eyes wide shut” when it comes to how this President has handled situations regarding the Middle East from the inception of his administration. How long now have terrorists been slaughtering with weapons made by our country? Millions and millions of $$ worth of equipment went missing in Afghanistan when the draw down started in earnest. And how about all that equipment in Iraq? What a debacle. Accomplishing this level of foreign policy atrocity required that the voters (and media) disbelieve in Islam representing a formidable terror threat. But this same community believes in Armageddon style fallout from AGW (excuse me, “climate change”) and that there is a a Republican “war on women”. Weapons-grade ignorance and foolishness.
Sharon W.:
Before the 2008 election I recall speaking with a liberal and expressing my concern about Obama’s attitude towards the war on terror. The reply was basically that that had receded in the backround and didn’t matter as much now. I think that was a common perception.
The airstrikes are all about election optics. Period.
It’s pretty obvious that Obola doesn’t want to do anything that would seriously harm ISIL, as he persists in calling it.
ISIL stands for Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. The Levant includes Israel. Hint, hint.
Michael Novak has a great article on the battles of Lepanto and Vienna at NRO:
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/389697/october-7-feast-our-lady-victory-michael-novak
It beautifully illustrates why ISIS doesn’t care about not being up with the 21st century. I doubt that Obama has even heard of this Islamic history.
If you want to destroy Israel what better way than to give 1) Iran time to gain nuclear weapons technology, 2) hamstring any Israeli response and 3) allow ISIS to conquer Iraq and Syria? Which would then enable ISIS to grasp the low hanging fruit of Lebanon and Jordan. That would effectively surround Israel with an ISIS Caliphate…
Obama may be incompetent and a dilettante but if so, somebody advising that administration is decidedly not incompetent.
The US used to have a special relationship with the Kurds.
Neville Chamberlain may have been inept but there is no evidence that he sympathized with the Nazis. Obama’s position is entirely different. He identifies with Islam and has sympathies for militant Islam. If Obama is faced with a choice between the interests of militant Islam vs. American interests he will chose militant Islam every time.
In the past, Obama has made it clear that he and Erdogan are best friends so there is no reason to think that Obama would do anything to save the Kurds to protect American interests when Erdogan wants them destroyed.
As I’ve been saying for the last couple of years, the United States has switched sides in the War on Terrorism.
expat
Novak’s ‘history’ is terrible.
To keep this post short: just get a real history of these two important battles.
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For those curious: the final scenes in LOTR: The Two Towers is entirely based upon the Siege of Vienna which was lifted 9-11-1683.
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One of the huge problems with even contemporaneous battle accounts is that witnesses can’t count large numbers of people.
The result is that you end up with scribes totally rewriting their accounts — embellishing the numbers by a factor of ten — if the emotions demand it.
Like the battles of the American Revolution, most ancient battles ended up employing far fewer combatants that expected in the modern era.
1.500 men would be a HUGE military force for that period. Laying in stores for a long siege would be most challenging. Staff officers with quartermaster knowledge were rare.
Even ‘big’ ships were dinky. They were limited by the size of tree available. For the Turks, they were stuck. All of the really decent trees had long since been cut down. The result was inferior ships/ boats.
The primary resource that the Turks wanted out of the Balkans was the forest. It was the last standing.
The Turks would also have had a serious gun powder problem: the number one, original source, for salt peter was hog breeding. Hogs produce prolific amounts of urea — of which anyone down wind can testify.
Muslims (and Jews) are simply not going to be raising hogs. Indeed, the drier climate would have to mean that the Turks would’ve had to trade for salt peter or work every bat cave to conjure up their own.
This led to their natural reluctance to base their mass fleet upon gun powder weapons — the very weapons that had defeated the Christians in 1453. (Constantinople)
The Catholic fleet just shot the Muslims to pieces. Due to the wind ( “the weather gage”) the Muslims couldn’t stop sailing straight into the Catholics — even when they realized the battle was a disaster.
Worse, their oar stroking slaves (Catholics) suddenly stopped following commands — at the worst possible time!
Doh!
The gun powder supply was rectified — in grand style — by the time the Turks besieged Vienna.
The critical focus of the battle descended to mining and COUNTER-MINING. The Turks never got much past the outer works — because the Christians were listening — and counter-mining.
In one famous — last day gambit — IIRC — a heroic teen lit a counter fuse right above the Turks — after they’d placed plenty of gunpowder — and before they’d left. The Christian blast detonated the Turk’s gun powder (it’s touchy stuff) and killed every Turk in the mine.
Sadly, the blast also mostly ruined a major bastion. Vienna had been opened up enough to expect a Muslim assault.
Just in the nick of time the cavalry came over the hill and Muslim morale cracked entirely. The Christians cut down the invaders almost to a man. The Muslims had raped and pillaged for months coming north. Now it was total war — and revenge.
Some of the current pockets in the Balkans in the present day are legacies of that Turkish campaign. Fleeing Muslims were able to hide out in pockets here and there. Eventually the main Christian army ran out of gas (they had come hundreds of miles as it was) and let them be.
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One take-away with Muslim warfare: NEVER count on any Muslim rendering the honors of war. They just don’t do it. Ask the Hindus how that worked out.
BTW, the Hindus lost more souls than the price of WWII when the Muslims showed up. Check out the maps and the history.
Scribes detailed mounds of skulls higher than buildings when the Muslims won control. They cut down untouchables like they were livestock. These hapless souls never had any weapons — being only armed with harsh language.
The Islamists expect to reverse all of these ancient defeats.
For that reason, if for no other, Hollywood should revive period films: El Cid and more.
Blert,
Thanks for the detail. I was more impressed by the attitudes Novak reported. Like you, I think Islamists want revenge.
Obama and his ilk live in fantasy. I am sure he thinks that “you can just bomb a little bit and like Bush and Reagan and stuff like that you can win and get some glory and cred…and stuff like that”.
America – Hang your head in shame. You voted for them. You voted for Obama, Pelosi, and Reid – and them all.
If any more heroes turn over in their graves there will be rumblings on Richter scale level.
“1.500 men would be a HUGE military force for that period.
Even ‘big’ ships were dinky. They were limited by the size of tree available.” blert
Many historians disagree with those assertions.
“Bahjat said he is receiving reports that Turkey is pulling its troops back, rather than risk armed confrontation with ISIS. “It’s unbelievable–Turkey is in NATO, so you literally have NATO watching what is happening in this town. Everyone can see it–the TV cameras are there, watching. It’s terrible.”
From original post…
The Turks have M-60 tanks. ISIS has M-1 tanks. You BET the Turks are pulling back. They are seriously out-gunned.
Erdogan would be massively embarrassed if the Turkish army was losing tanks to ISIS.
Now that the propaganda stills have been shot, there’s no further need for Turkish M-60 tanks at the border.
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BTW, the Turkish legislature is inviting in a certain foreign power to fight its battles — rather than get involved.
%%%
This town is toast. ISIS and Erdogan are merely waiting for the family and the furniture to move out.
This ‘cleaning up’ operation will be repeated east and west at the Syrian border until all of the Kurds are turfed out.
At such a time, Erdogan will have ten tomcats stirred up in his bag — the better for him to control… or perhaps not.
Deposing Assad is an insane strategic objective. It’s far, far, better to let Sykes-Picot die — and to let the Alawites live on in West Syria.
Behind all of the chatter, Assad is continuing to cough up his chemical munitions. At this point, he’s starting to realize that they are a booby-prize.
A humbled Assad will shift the politics of Lebanon. The Hez will most likely be put entirely out of action. It always depended upon Damascus as an air-head. I think that connection will break.
Egypt is not going to permit any more Iranian ships through the Suez canal.
I don’t see Putin directly supporting the Hez. He already has his proxy army. (Assad)
The Sunnis have captured the high ground above the Golan — and must surely inch north to Damascus. At some point, Assad is going to have to bail out. Those M-198 howitzers make Damascus problematic. Even a few M-1 tanks will simply wade through Assad’s Soviet targets.
My readings at the Long War Journal inform me that ISIS has grabbed virtually all of Iraq’s tanks — with spares, no less.
Al Baghdadi must be torn; Damascus or Baghdad… which comes first?
Some pundits have suggested Nero and his girl Valerie chose sides with Iran as the successors to power in the region, ultimately opposing ISIS and it’s expansion. This we are told by the intelligentsia is Nero playing chess, while the rest of us simpletons hyperventilate about this ISIS threat. We don’t possess his enormous intellect and ability to see all sides of every issue simultaneously.
If that is true, Iran is curiously quiet about the threat in their own back yard. While it’s a political problem for Nero The All- Seeing to publicly lead an alliance with Iran to stop ISIS, I do not understand the apparent lack of concern on the part of Iran. ISIS are led by Sunni Muslims, some of Sadaams old corps of scum. If anyone has to be worried, I would think that Iran would be; the last time they dealt with these characters they had a very long and brutal war that settled nothing and resulted in the Iranians being gassed and poisoned by the thousands.
So I have to ask myself what the Iranians know and what they’re up to. It could not be that they’ve cut a deal with ISIS. Something along the lines of an agreement to join forces and eradicate Israel, then wipeout whatever influence in the ME the West has. I’m sure Nero has thought through the possibility that he could be betrayed by his buddies in Tehran, and knows what he’s doing.
But curiosity is getting the better of me and I can’t figure out what’s holding Tehran back. It’s almost as if a trap is being set, but I wonder who’s going to be caught in it.
I read an article in the WSJ today by Juan McCain and Miss Lindsay Graham which said that all our troubles in Syria were caused by our failure to depose Assad.
You’ll have to excuse me if I don’t take those two mental cases seriously.
All our present troubles in the Middle East are due to our failure to follow through with what was a brilliant strategic plan — throw out Saddam Hussein and leave 60 – 100,000 US troops in the heart of the Middle East. I don’t know whether that failure was due to Bush chickening out, Rumsfeld’s ideas, Obama’s coming onto the scene, or what, but it happened, and unless a Reagan gets elected, we will have to live with our failure for a long, long, time.
GB…
There certainly WERE very large ancient armies, just not as many as the scribes have written up.
A major pre-modern fortress would never hold more than 1,000 fighters. No point defense of any node could justify a fortress of that size. (They only pencil out if you’re Tolkien.)
Some of the fortresses still survive, many in Syria. We know how tiny they are, their water capacities….
Once in a true fortress, an attacker would lose fifty men to dislodge a singe defender. The accounts of the Crusaders are astonishing, in this regard.
So even massive Muslim armies found it brutal to pry Christians out of their fortresses.
To prevail in a siege, the defender doesn’t want a large contingent. His vulnerability was water and food. So fewer defender meant more resistance.
Some of the worst defeats ever suffered occurred because of many helpless civilians inside. They should have fled from the battle zone entirely… as ancient armies were famously slow to march.
The exceptions are legendary: Hannibal, Caesar, Alexander. All were quick. It’s what made them.
%%%
What never makes sense is landing a staggering army on an island that can’t feed or water them; against a fortress that permits only a tight front. Everything makes sense if the Turks starved the Christians out. The fortress never held more than 400 souls in its garrison. (Actually a pretty big number.)
The numbers were hyped by the scribes — like Soetoro’s today — to fit the narrative. It just wouldn’t do to admit that the Turks had prevailed before the Christians (fleet) could resupply their fellow men.
As for the Turk’s anger: he must have blown up when he found out that a mere 350 Christians had held off his massive force. He’d just lost a tremendous amount of face. He was, in fact, humiliated. A brutal revenge was his recourse.
With my telling, everything fits.
His failure to honor the Western norms of war triggered the naval reprisal. Prior to that event, the Venetians just couldn’t find the motivation.
The Spanish, Genovese and the Venetians were die-hard commercial rivals. All three wanted the spice trade. It took the Pope’s entreaties and the Sultan’s jihad to unify them.
The Venetians built their latest cannon oriented ships, the six galleasses, specifically for this battle.
Promptly after this famous battle, Spain went completely over to up-sized/modified galleasses ==> galleons. Their previous Mediterranean oriented (mild seas) ship designs were abandoned. Even so, it took many generations before sailing ships had decent rough sea keeping properties.
rickl…
The Two Stooges never cease to disgust.
Neo: “I think even many liberals are having trouble with it.”
What I’m seeing from them is they conclude that, although Obama has made mistakes, those mistakes are in context of Bush being ultimately to blame for everything that’s gone wrong.
Eric,
If only Bush had let the Muslims stay in Spain, Ferdinand and Isabella never would have come to the throne, supported Columbus, and conquered the Americas. Bush i really, really bad.
Yes also. And I don’t think that the image of dying Kurds, or Armenians for that matter [who seem to be by present understandings ethnically related to some degree to the Muslim and pagan Kurds], would resonate with Obama to any significant degree.
When he looks at them, they couldn’t be his sons or daughters.
Tragically we are missing the really big news: because NY, CA, IL, MA, VA, CO, PA and many others states are still deep blue even though Obama is an unmitigated disaster he could get re-elected tomorrow.
It will take a lot more than a massacre in Syria to awaken those whose main criteria for Presidential leadership is a knowledge of sports and abortion rights. He would have to to something uncool live on TV, like insult a ball team, to really lose public support. A mere attack on the homeland could be spun in Obama’s favor as an attack by racists.
Bob from Virginia:
I don’t think we’re missing that news about those blue states. I think it’s a given.
That’s what the term “yellow dog Democrats” means.
Bob From Virginia,
They may be opaque about what they vote for, but they are very clear about what they vote against.
Bush is the devil, thus responsible for original sin. WHen your religious dogma believes in original sin, they can always blame it on the Devil. That’s how it works.
w.r.t. deep blue states; it’s like the passengers on the Titanic voting for the iceberg.