Today’s Iran news
Yesterday I wrote this about rumors of a deal with Iran close to completion. There were five points involved, and I remarked:
It’s a nice wishlist, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
And then what? If a Democrat gets elected president, will everything go out the window? Isn’t that what the Iranian regime – which plays the long game – is counting on? How would the Trump administration be able to guarantee a deal would last long enough to matter? I don’t think they’re unaware of the problem. But I hope they’re very creative about the solution.
Then again, the deal may fall through again, and the war resume.
Today Trump says it will happen tomorrow:
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 13, 2026
Is Trump a chump or a wily fox? Lucy, football? Obama-deal lite? Something that will last and actually mean something?
I have a very bad feeling in the pit of my stomach about this. I don’t think the current leaders of Iran can be trusted, and it feels as though this gives them a reprieve and that Trump has been played. Then again, I don’t know. I really, really, really don’t know, and people who say they do are wrong – unless they are on the inside, and maybe not even then.
I think it will be a while before this plays out and we can even being to tell what it means, but I am filled with trepidation at the moment.
Lee Smith agrees with Neo’s forebodings: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/trump-pallets-cash-iran
My pool pick is Iran will bteak it in 26 hrs after signing.
I would guess that both sides have placed their bets on the ’28 election.
I wish they were bombed into the stone age. But I keep going back to Kurt Schlichter’s column earlier this week…..if regime change happens then it will be a big win.
I do t see how anyone with a brain would ever trust the Iranians….and I assume that means the administration. But…..
Typo alert: in final sentence “even being to tell” should be “even begin to tell”
Even without nuclear capability, Iran can do a lot of harm with ballistic missiles, which they seem able to build in large numbers. Israel has been able to continue functioning under sustained missile attack, not sure how many other countries that would be true of…how would today’s UK react to continuous missile attacks on London, or today’s France to continuous attacks on Paris?
And the range of the missiles will continuously be increasing, and even without nuclear detonation capability, radiological attacks as well as conventional high-explosive missile attacks will likely be threatened.
This week’s Mariv Poll on Israeli attitutes – looks like they agree with Neo:
“Meanwhile, 62 percent of poll respondents expressed distrust in Trump, while 21 percent said they trust him regarding Israeli interests in any agreement, and 17 percent said they did not know. A poll published by Israel’s Public Broadcaster (KAN) on 28 April found that a majority of Israelis believe the state has failed to secure victory in any war since October 2023.
According to the survey, 57 percent of respondents said no victory had been achieved, while 28 percent believed success had been reached in at least one arena, and a further 15 percent said they were unsure.”
If Trump isn’t going to put US boots on the ground, and he has said he won’t, tho it seems he’s mentioned it remains an option, then he has to be open to a deal.
Trust, but verify. And if (we all expect when) Iran, or some rogue part of Iran’s govt, violates the signed agreement?
That seems to me it becomes a NEW casus belli, for new 60-90 day window of response w/o Congress veto, so at that time Trump can use it to restart the bombing. Maybe even use US Marines & Army to take over some of the Iranian islands in the strait.
But if Iran makes a deal, and keeps it, the Iranian people lose. Sadly; no heroic (but costly in US lives) Unconditional Surrender. 1 or 10 or 100 US soldiers is worth more to Trump than 50,000 Iranians. And he’s not completely, nor especially politically, wrong.
The issue is with Muslims, and a key is their observance of “taqqia”. which is the Muslim necessity and right to lie to non- Muslims. Islam requires truth only in Muslim-Muslim transactions.
So hoping for a sound US-Iran agreement fealty is an absurdity. Wake up, White House!
As Tom Grey says, short of bombing them into the Stone Age and putting US boots on the ground, a deal of some kind was going to be struck. If the Strait stays open, so far, so good. If, or when, some major violation occurs, we still have bombs.
Sheeze. We let Iran do pretty much whatever it wants since 1980, and as of today their navy is at the bottom of the ocean, not just the ayatollah but dozens of top officials and military officers are gone, military infrastructure deeply wounded. All this done with western media actively supporting the Iranian regime, publishing propaganda that is picked up as truth (like the UAE to Iran payments referred to in the second paragraph of the linked Patch article, which is vehemently denied by the UAE).
So first let me call out all the ingrates who must of approved of Iran policy before Trump?
Second, I’ll point out there is one, and only one objective: ‘nuclear dust’. I see people bringing up conventional missiles, civilians, Israeli polls, and…nothing at all about the dust.
The simple fact is that if the dust is returned and they leave the Persian Gulf alone, they can go back to being the maniacs they were, and regime change will have to come from Iranian citizens and the countries in the immediate area. I’m sure there will be soft power and dark ops by the US in the background to support this, but to the average American, Iran will fall out of the US news if these two things are met.
I don’t know why anyone would get upset by this stuff. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t, if not we pick up and continue. The blockade will remain in place until conditions improve. And Trump is attempting to manipulate Iranian politics while this is going on, so it is a tricky business. So it goes, I’m not worried.
I don’t link to JPost anymore, but here’s a headline if you want to go check it out on your own.
Live Updates: IDF continues to target Hezbollah, as Iran says signing of MoU will not take place on Sunday
I sympathize with the concerns of everyone here. But we should be thinking about the time frame involved. This regime has been terrorizing the planet for FORTY-FIVE YEARS. It may be a lot to ask it be brought down in the space of a few months.
I’m not going to predict anything, it just gives me a chance to be wrong. There is an element of unpredictability whenever the Middle East or Trump are involved and here we have both. I will only say that Trump may be thinking in the long term. And if some kind of “deal” is made soon it might not be the end but rather the beginning of something else.