Is there still a ceasefire with Iran?
The left and Trump-haters say that Trump and the military have no idea what they’re doing in Iran (or anywhere else, I suppose). I don’t think that’s the case, but one thing that does seem true is that Trump and company don’t want the Iranian regime to be able to predict what the US will do.
The left and Trump-haters also say that Trump has yet to make his goals in this war clear. I disagree. He actually has said many times that he wants to degrade the regime’s capacity to make war and eliminate its capacity to make nuclear weapons, plus recover the nuclear material they already have. Oh, and regime change would be very very nice, but is not absolutely necessary.
The left and Trump-haters would like him to fail. I would like him to succeed. Plus I really really would like regime change in Iran as well. But you can’t always get what you want.
Wars are unpredictable.
My sense of things with Iran right now, for what it’s worth, is that Trump continues to play for time while attempting to strangle the regime economically and precipitate a cascade of events that will cause the army and even some of the IRGC to revolt and/or give up. Without those enforcers, the Iranian regime couldn’t survive. He’s reluctant to bomb further because destroying the targets that remain might end up harming the people of Iran more than Trump would like, and so he’s betting – for now, anyway – on the financial pressure doing the trick.
Also – although I haven’t seen anything definitive on this – doesn’t the ceasefire restart the clock on the need for Congressional approval?
This is what’s been happening recently in the war or the “ceasefire”:
Iran continued strikes on the United Arab Emirates for the second day, the country’s Defense Ministry confirmed Tuesday evening.
“The UAE, a key American ally, said it came under attack by Iranian missiles and drones for a second straight day on Tuesday,” the Associated Press reported. “At least three people were wounded in attacks the day before, and a drone sparked a fire at a key oil facility in the eastern emirate of Fujairah.”
The UAE armed forces are “actively engaging” with incoming missile and drone attacks from Iran, the Defense Ministry posted on X, adding that “the sounds heard in scattered areas of the country are the result of the UAE’s air defence systems intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. …
The strikes came hours after the U.S. Navy repelled Iranian attempts to disrupt the operation “Project Freedom,” ordered by President Trump to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, U.S. destroyers secured the waterway and allowed at least two American-flagged cargo ships to sail through the waterway. …
President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the U.S. has effectively dismantled the Iranian navy. “Now they’re reduced to little boats with a machine gun on the front of them because they had a navy of 159 ships!” he said Tuesday evening. “Iran’s Navy is done.”
Make of it what you will.
I can’t believe why the missile strikes at the UAE have not provoked a response from the US. Space Force knows exactly where those missiles came from and a quick response on the launchers would not damage civilian infrastructure unless they are launched from some school, I suppose. Not responding is not a good look in my view.
As om would say, why has trump gone wobbly?
We could as well ask “Is there a war still against Iranian despots?” and answer equally with a ceasefire question, “Why, yes, we have both a ceasefire and a war going on.”
All good at this location.
I think the two US civilian vessels transiting the Strait was a breaking point for the IRGC. They knew what that meant, which was they no longer held the Straits and the commerce through it hostage. If vessels could safely and freely transit the Strait, then the IRGC had no more cards to play. So, they attacked. The military responded appropriately, destroying the means of the attack.
The US next step is to get other vessels to do what those 2 ships did. Either it will force the IRGC to expose more units to be destroyed or take away their hostages. Both hurt the IRGC, and the only other card is trying to drag things out hoping global and US politics hammer Trump on “quagmire”. The reality is a quagmire would take more than just this summer, and it is going to be a hot and uncomfortable summer for the IRGC.
You can’t believe Iran with any agreement, they say one thing then lauch drones as they wish.
A soft shell TACO would be wobbly indeed.
But President Trump isn’t a taco or burrito or chimichaga.
A taco, a burrito. No.
But I could be proud to be a chimichanga.
”I can’t believe why the missile strikes at the UAE have not provoked a response from the US…As om would say, why has trump gone wobbly?”
The first few weeks of this latest engagement against Iran were a masterclass by Israel and the United States in the use of modern military power. But since then for reasons I don’t understand things have gotten “wobbly.”
I can see no reason why we allow the IRGC to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. We have the military power to open it and keep it open. We have Apache helicopter gunships and A-10 Warthogs that can patrol the Strait and blow those speedboats out of the water within minutes of their appearance. Yet we allow the IRGC to use those boats to patrol the Strait with only an occasional pushback. Why?
At the start of this operation we had two minesweepers in the Persian Gulf. On the first day they were ordered to set sail for Singapore. To my knowledge they have not been brought back — they’re still in the Far East. Why?
In the last few weeks the IRGC has seized multiple cargo ships on multiple occasions without response from the United States. In addition, shortly after the American blockade took effect at least 16 Iranian ships ran the blockade without response. On top of that a Chinese container ship believed to be loaded with drone parts and military equipment was allowed to run the blockade and dock at an Iranian port. To all of that, why?
Last week Iran amassed a flotilla of at least 32 armed boats and ran them down the length of the Strait. It was a demonstration to the 2,000 ships trapped in the Persian Gulf and the world at large as to who really controls the Strait of Hormuz. We watched them do it without response. Why?
Besides allowing a nearly defeated enemy to control both this conflict and the world economy, it is making the United States look extremely weak. I’m stunned at how such a powerful country can project such weakness. There is no amount of 3-D chess that can make up for this.
As physicsguy has said before (regarding other but probably related topics) “Make it make sense.”
Mike and Gadi on Israel Update, “Make No Mistake: Iran Is Feeling The Pain” (1:05:39):
https://youtu.be/hfWdXrdybQE
You are not well informed, kent
I assume we have taken this pause to restock our arsenals
The status of the uae is a little puzzling but then again they have a lot of restive third country nationals
Was the rocketing a nudge to stay inside opec instead of being independent
Who is running the regime anyways vahidi gholibaf or some third party
This strategy is working. Why restart the war?
If we can open passage to a somewhat normal level and continue strangling the IRGC though the blockade, it actually diminishes the prospects that China will go hard to resupply Iran. What’s the benefit to China to send more weapons that get killed if the war restarts?
The blockade may do what bombing could not. What will China do? Iran will be forced to use what armaments they have left if the flow of oil tankers begins. That would be when the US will strike again. If our blockade holds China abandons Iran, and the IRGC folds.
President Trump is fighting a two front war. If a small trickle of tankers begins exiting the gulf, the markets stabilize. Iran has no choice but to through everything they have against that.
Don’t go wobbly but also,
don’t light your hair on fire.
I don’t believe half of what you said, mkent. I have not read about most of what you mentioned. Sources please?
Rubio just said that 6 US Sailors have been killed in the latest Iranian attacks. Did he mean US Navy Sailors, or Merchant Sailors?
I do also think that we should go in and destroy the IRGC.
How does an outside observer tell the difference between Trump has no idea what he’s doing and he doesn’t want the Iranian regime to predict what the US will do?
That argument is unfalsifiable.
Chuck Holton pointed out that only six mosquito boats were sent out against the convoy. Are we to assume that was all the IRGC naval personnel willing to go on a suicide mission?
He suggested the UAE likely haven’t retaliated at the request of the US. But they have seized Iranian assets in banks there.
I had a friend that suggested Iran was shipping oil out on semi-tanker trucks to avoid the blockade. It would take 10,000 semis to equal one VLCC ship.
One wrinkle would be if China is “pre-paying” for oil, to give the IRGC a lifeline. I think the Chinese are smarter than that.
Why would anyone with even a small brain think President Trump doesn’t know what he’s doing?
By any measure the operation is a success. Consider this. We would only need to open the strait to around 65% of pre-conflict shipping to raise the amount of global oil to fill the gap given how other methods have ramped up.
The military campaign lasted 40 days. It’s been 26 days since the ceasefire/blockade began. It took seven months to depose Gaddafi.
A new twist (and I don’t have any idea what it means):
https://x.com/i/status/2051798734850101462
@Brian E:The military campaign lasted 40 days. It’s been 26 days since the ceasefire/blockade began. It took seven months to depose Gaddafi.
Thanks for putting the time into perspective. I feel like we’re all old enough to remember this stuff and remember the times before the news cycle could only remember the last seven days or so.
And we can also remember that legacy media is never, ever going to give us anything like the full picture if it would in any way benefit Trump.
I’d rather not use the coarse but short and descriptive term, but legacy media nowadays can only do two things: regurgitate information supplied to them by the people they choose to amplify, and quote each other. They cannot collect their own facts any more. They do not want any facts about how the war is going and they will peddle as much FUD as they can spin out of their fundaments.
sdferr, I suspect the twist is President Trump gauging whether there is a central government in Iran. Each time some “progress” is made, the regional IRGC commands have launched new attacks.
Earlier, CENTCOM (I think) said the military action by the IRGC didn’t rise to the level requiring a response. There has been a second attack on the UAE by regional command. There can be no agreement until the central government (if there is one) actually asserts control over the regions.
This certainly isn’t particularly satisfying that we’re not just grinding the IRGC into dust (even if that were possible and wouldn’t end up leaving the country in rubble for the next government).
It’s also possible that the Navy needed some additional time to fine tune it’s shield protecting commercial tankers they will assume responsibility for exiting the Gulf. Our defense needs to be perfect. Iran only needs to succeed once.
“President Trump gauging whether there is a central government in Iran.”
No visible connection to Project Freedom, or pausing that.
“Navy needed some additional time to fine tune it’s shield protecting commercial tankers they will assume responsibility for exiting the Gulf”
Well, that’s disconcerting a thought. If the Navy wasn’t ready they should have said so before kicking off. Again, incoherence.
I don’t know enough to have an opinion on the strategy and tactics of our operations. I do have faith in President Trump and his team to manage this as best they can. I’m thankful that a Democrat is not the Commander in Chief, and I think Trump is a better CiC than any Republican President, going back to Reagan, if not further.
As Neo wrote, wars are unpredictable.