Trump pauses the bombs but continues the blockade
The responses to this message of Trump’s are brutal – lots of accusations of cowardice and the usual TACO stuff:
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 21, 2026
It may be that the economic approach will bear some fruit. Interesting observation here:
You might think that Iran would be happy after President Donald Trump announced that he would be continuing the ceasefire until their proposal is submitted and discussions are concluded.
But they actually seem very mad about the ceasefire being extended.
Why? Because the blockade continues. Just because they aren’t having bombs dropped on them doesn’t mean they aren’t still getting choked out by the blockade.
“In a matter of days, Kharg Island storage will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in. Constraining Iran’s maritime trade directly targets the regime’s primary revenue lifelines.
“The @USTreasury will continue to apply maximum pressure through Economic Fury to systematically degrade Tehran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds. Any person or vessel facilitating these flows—through covert trade and finance—risks exposure to U.S. sanctions. We continue to freeze the funds stolen by the corrupt leadership on behalf of the people of Iran.”
I don’t pretend to be able to predict what will happen.
[NOTE: Tomorrow or the next day I hope to write some longer reflections on the dilemmas presented by this war.]
Fog of war, indeed. I have read that Iran’s underground missiles have been destroyed by shock waves generated by the bombing of the entrances to the underground missile storage depots. I have also read that Iran’s underground missiles are intact, waiting to be deployed.
Though I would have thought they would have already been deployed, instead of there being a 80% or more reduction in the daily missile strikes.
I doubt that the IGRC will ever consent to handing over the uranium. Will the IGRC collapse from the blockade of oil exports? I have read the IGRC controls 30-40% of the economy. Seems that the only way to destroy the IGRC would be to destroy the economy. If there is still a blockade in 2-3 weeks, we shall see…
Nor do I. I am reminded of what I sometimes tell my sister. “I’m not a physician. I don’t even play one on TV.”
Damn it, Jim, I’m a doctor, not Victor Davis Hanson! 🙂
You can’t keep pumping oil out of the ground if you have don’t have storage capacity.
Shut in wells can become unusable.
The Strait of Hormuz is both a strength and a weakness for Iran.
I think sdferr has it right, on the Iran Pause thread:
sdferr on April 21, 2026 at 11:18 pm said:
Per the White House announcement, President Trump tells the whole world what his overall tactics are to achieve his strategic aim (NO NUKES) and people still argue about what his plan is.
If it’s Tuesday it must be TACOS.
From the Open Thread
physicsguy on April 21, 2026 at 4:54 pm said:
As to some complaints I’ve seen that Trump is just signing up for more of the open-ended run-around by the Iranians that he objected to when all his predecessors allowed Iran to bamboozle them, read that last line again:
“until such time as … discussions are concluded, one way or another.”
Trump walking away when he gets tired of them trying to keep the game going is “another” way to conclude the discussions.
Note that this time the ball is in Iran’s court to submit a proposal, not just bluster about “conditions” that the US has to meet and say one thing to the negotiators and something else to their own people.
And remember that the clock the Iranians are trying to run out is their own: when they can’t ship their oil out, and the storage locations are full, and they have to shut down the wells — they are done for.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/nowhere-to-store-crude-will-trump-s-hormuz-blockade-force-iran-to-shut-oil-wells-in-weeks-article-13889393.html
I read that at Just the News, but it is interesting to see who picks up reports and gets onto the front page of the internet searches.
And – here it is, just like I said (not that it takes much work to connect the dots that are right out in front of everyone).
I don’t think Trump ever expected the Iranians to come back to the table, he doesn’t care if the TACOS come home to roost, and (as a lot of commenters around the web point out on every post that looks crazy) – none of us, including the pundits, have access to Trump’s intel or advisors.
https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2026/04/21/bessent-delivers-another-powerful-blow-to-iran-n2201547
(Posted at 8:55 pm wherever RS keeps their clocks, following posts of doom and gloom at around 2 and 5. The reading of the tea leaves from Iran changes hourly.)
In the afternoon was this as well:
https://redstate.com/wardclark/2026/04/21/new-inside-the-seized-iranian-tanker-what-the-us-just-captured-n2201536
Missile making stuff from China.
TEMU order by the IRGC got picked up by the US.
Quick review of one of Fernandez’ Three Conjectures:
The Soviets had the capability to destroy, in effect, themselves but not the intent.
Muslim terrorist groups–some of them, and I don’t think the Twelvers were a big deal when Fernandez wrote–don’t mind destroying everything including themselves. In fact, that might be the point.
A related conjecture, more theoretical when he wrote, was that the terrorist groups will, one or two of them, anyway, get a nuke. It’s inevitable. Then what? What is the duty of other nations? If the group or groups which look suspicious don’t have a nuke or six yet but seem to be working toward it, what is the duty of other nations toward them?
One answer is that the Just and Righteous have for decades comfortably insisted that other peoples think differently and come to different conclusions and it’s not for us to judge. (or come to prudent conclusions about such thinking on the part of the Other). However, in such circumstances as Fernandez foresees and the IRGC and others demonstrate, the liberals will insist those folks think just like us and they wouldn’t for a minute contemplate such a terrible thing, so, naturally, we should leave them alone.
I am becoming impatient, so it’s a good thing that I am not making any decisions on this issue. If it were up to me, I would unleash the Kraken on Iran, but save some to drop on the democrat legislature of The Commonwealth of Virginia.
The IRG is the Iranian version of Hamas; they do not care what level of suffering or death the Iranian people will be forced to endure.
If Iran loses its oil revenue, whatever incoming revenue remains – no matter how small – will be taken by the IRG and very little, or none of it, will find its way to the Iranian people.
If the Iranian people run out of food, the IRG will not care.
The IRG cannot be bombed into submission or starved into submission because they will make sure they are the last group standing.
If the citizenry revolts, the IRG will just keep killing any and all protesters.
In a “normal” war, one side surrenders because they realize the game is over and by surrendering, they can continue to live and resume their normal life.
But the IRG welcomes death and destruction; so how can they be forced to submit?,
I honestly do not know how the IRG can be forced to reach any political settlement.
One big lesson in all of this; it demonstrates what can happen when the citizenry is unarmed.
Darn shame if Iran had some version of the Battle of Athens, aka The McMinn County War.
This morning we see this report (and others similar):
https://x.com/i/status/2046915813613982169
Now I assume these IRGC actions (supposing they are genuine and not mere lies) take place under the watchful gaze of US CENTCOM, which we further are lead to believe takes no part to intervene nor interrupt.
Why is that, we must wonder? What is the aim of this evident policy? (For I cannot believe it is haphazard or done in mere negligence). I can conjure a number of plausible explanations to be sure, yet none with confidence, to say nothing of one approaching certainty. Still, I suppose some sensible account remains to be revealed while the nagging question remains: What is going on?
https://jewishworldreview.com/0426/york042226.php
Worth remembering that Iran having to shut down their wells punishes everybody, not just Iran, and it could take a long time to restore them if they have to be shut down.
NK, the most punished would be China and the EU.
US would be the least punished, and actually benefit, which is one of the reasons Trump keeps temporizing on resuming bombing. We have no urgent need for Iranian oil, meanwhile we sell our own to the world.
I wish for two things:
1. Somebody arm the Iranian citizens
2. Trump stop posting. He creates many problems for himself, although I admit some of his posts are not what they seem.
Perhaps the blockade plus ceasefire is the more serious threat to the IRGC.
Perhaps they would rather be bombed and garner world sympathy and thereby endanger Trump’s midterms.
I believe Iranian leaders are watching the US midterms very closely. The best way for the war to end is for Trump to back off due to political concerns.
Perhaps Trump has lured them (and the Democrats) into a ceasefire trap. If there is no war, there is no Forever War.
Meanwhile Trump keeps his options open.
“Find some way to put non-violent pressure on Iran! . . . No, not like that! Find some way that’s ineffective!”
@Bill:US would be the least punished, and actually benefit, which is one of the reasons Trump keeps temporizing on resuming bombing. We have no urgent need for Iranian oil, meanwhile we sell our own to the world.
I’m afraid this is mistaken. Oil is a global market and we cannot wall off ourselves from it. The people who need oil from Iran will pay more for oil not from Iran, and so prices will go up. American oil producers might benefit, but Americans who buy oil would suffer, not just consumers but any producer with oil as input including refiners.
Doesn’t mean not to do it, just means we have to look the costs of doing the thing squarely in the face and not wave them away because we think it’s the right thing to do.
there is a ladder of escalation involved, the pasdaran has engaged in assymetrical warfare against 12 countries and two terriitories, the last being diego garcia, that was the close run, then there were the strikes against the ruwais field in uae and jubail in saudi, (I expected they would make more of the latter, but the bot army of traders seems to do the work) the French got caught in the double play
certainly many non producing countries like australia, and the UK, (as its marxist red baby energy minister) ignores the need for north sea exploration, have bee hit hard, the Eurabia& effect seems to have done a lot of work, it has prevented much action on the hash al arab, the iranian proxy that seems to be waging direct action against british synagogues,
the Torygraph has shown itself to be as hysterical as the Times, actually nearly every western paper has been as overwrought,
ben rhodes, who seems have made him a sherpa for graham platner, seems to be doing the midterm play, but then again it may be his skill at getting things wrong, as part of the iraq study group, he pushed for the withdrawal that empowered islamic states rise,
@baat yeor,