Iran pause
I had in mind a longish post on Iran, but various obligations have intervened for a few hours in the real as opposed to virtual world. So this is a post for you to discuss Iran and related subjects.
I still do plan to write a post this evening, on this and perhaps one other topic. So please stay tuned.
https://x.com/i/status/2046683109912199465
Pause it is.
See link for White House statement.
There is political hay to be made, so I expect it to happen. However, when it comes to the US vs Iran, Trump can afford to wait them out, and I don’t think Iran or the rest of the world can. How long? I don’t think a month will be needed, but maybe a few weeks.
It appears that the blockade is doing great damage to the IRGC and to Communist China, so the status quo for a while may be a better idea than resumed bombing.
Speaking from my armchair, I wonder if just keeping Hormuz blockaded to cut Iran’s oil revenues will succeed in a matter of months without inflicting further damage on Iran’s infrastructure.
Starve ’em out.
I guess I am a War Monger. I want to see the Rubble Bounce. This pause only gives IRGC time to kill more innocents, and for China to supply arms via rail.
I’d like to see the Iranian army take control, but the IRGC has all the best equipment and the best trained troops.
Evidence, of a sort, as to what is actually going on — namely, that the President sees his economic squeeze as the more effective means to get what he wants from the IRGC, while holding further military attacks within Iran in his back pocket. Oh, and as someone pointed out, the USS George H W Bush will arrive on scene in a few days hence.
https://x.com/i/status/2046757413496459428
I would normally counsel delay, as that is not as destructive, But with hostilities approaching 60 days and the US Congress licking their lips over the prospect of debating an extension of the War Powers Act, I am reluctant to suggest this. It’s a puzzlement.