Iran, the Strait, and the uranium: promises, promises
News:
[Trump said] Very important is that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon and they’ve agreed to that. Iran’s agreed to that, and they’ve agreed to it very powerfully. They’ve agreed to give us back the nuclear dust, which is way underground because of the attack we made with the B-2 bombers. So, we have a lot of agreement with Iran, and I think something’s going to happen very positively.
He added, in answer to a reporter’s question, that contrary to some news stories there’s no 20-year limit in any agreement about nuclear weapons.
Also:
President Trump took to Truth Social on Friday morning with some good news for enthusiasts of the Strait of Hormuz being fully open and operational: “IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE.”
He added that the US blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is complete.
When is a deal complete? And what good is the word of the present Iranian regime? As usual the “experts” are just guessing as to what this means and what will happen next.
My take: the blockade really hurt Iran. So its leaders will play ball with Trump for a while. They will promise him things he wants, and then stall on the delivery. But Trump being Trump, he’s not afraid to pressure them more. Trouble is, if the Democrats win the midterms and this happens after that, they will try to stop whatever he does and perhaps they will succeed.
So he’s in a hurry. Personally, I’d like to see him keep up the blockage until the economic pressures mean that the regime can’t pay its army and the army joins the forces trying to overthrow the regime. But I assume that, if that doesn’t happen and the blockade ends sooner than that, there’s probably a good reason for it.
It also occurs to me that (at least in transactional terms) the enriched uranium and its turnover are somewhat akin to the Israeli hostages Gaza held – that is, the thing Trump most wants back, first and foremost.
I think Trump’s smart and I don’t think he trusts the Iranians; he will require proof and drive a hard bargain. But he’s a realist and knows he may have reached the limits of military action there without the dreaded “boots on the ground.” And he feels at this point that regime change – which he wants – will be up to a combination of the Iranian people and Israel’s formidable intelligence assets there.
No doubt he and Bibi have discussed all of this. But unless regime change occurs in Iran, anything Trump and Bibi do can be reversed by successors in the US and Israel determined to undo it and Trump and Bibi know it. Iran knows it as well.
Very sad to think that we are looking at how the Democrats will try to undo all this if they gain power. Their TDS has turned them into a seditious, if not traitorous party. What’s worse is that almost 50% of the population goes along with them.
I hate that every election seems to be an existential event where the future of the country hangs in balance.
LAST paragraph. Does this mean everyone in the position of decider knows these are very high stakes?
THIRD paragraph from the bottom. Very interesting analogy. Because accurate and fair, despite their differences.
TO CLOSE, “ My take: the blockade really hurt Iran. So its leaders will play ball with Trump for a while. They will promise him things he wants, and then stall on the delivery. But Trump being Trump, he’s not afraid to pressure them more.”
TRUE. My guess is that either Trump will take an Island in the Strait to base policing…or he will take over and occupy Kharg Island, which is far West of the Strait, in order to control oil flow and money to the Iranian government.
Those are real levers. And there are others. Please discuss them.
PS Re physicsguy on Democrats. “Their TDS has turned them into a seditious, if not traitorous party.
YES they are, but not because of TDS. This is only their hook of demonisation to unify.
The real problem is the march of the base to the Far Left and that stamp of approval by the NYTimes. Going back to causation, we have Obama the United becoming the Great Divider, and thereby moving marginalized SJW/IdPol Woke into the mainstream and becoming Ruling Class orthodoxy.
Accordingly, I fear the return of Dem Rule as much as I fear a New French Revolution in the US.
Only a Civil War to restore the Great Republic and shred with great bloodletting the Enemy Within (ie, hate America fist CommieKKKrats) sooths me.
I believe we’ve officially entered the deep-fog stage of the “negotiations”, so I’d recommend we: 1) embrace the fog, 2) enjoy the fog while it lasts cause Fog Rules!, and 3) fog on foggers.
Oh, and keep on killin’ those basij and IRGC humps, Iranian patriots, pick up the pace even, ’cause you’ve got 10s of thousands of ’em yet to go.
If I were still a young man, I’d be quietly and anonymously preparing for a civil war. While praying that the democRats don’t return to power and force one upon us.
Informing my pessimism and militancy is this fresh look on present day Neo-Marxism via an interview with Irish author Emmet Connor, about his book releasing in May entitled “Red Pandemic: The Global Cult of Marxism.”
Specifically, the marketing of empathy to achieve radical egalitarian ends. Thus, globalism is just repackaged Marxism. The Climate Crisis is just repackaged Marxism.
They always ultimately seek destruction of established order, and replacing it by building a more Utopian World.
THIS IS BOLD Truth Telling. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lb-uJmcQXcc
And depressing to hear and absorb. Hard Truths must be told.
The President seems to be moving towards the Syria, Gaza, Venezuela, and now Lebanon model of de-fanged nations run by technocrats on a short leash willing to work with US and regional partners with the expectation of political reform left for the future. I hope we don’t leave the people of Iran to the mercies of the remnants of the Islamic Republic revolutionaries. I’d like to believe the campaign plan doesn’t leave the people without the ability to exercise their right to self-determination.
I think Trump’s smart. . . .
In terms of statecraft there is an argument to be made that he is at least the equal of Tallyrand, Richelieu, Metternich, and Bismarck. There’s a touch of Machiavelli in him too.
God forgive me, I have a sneaking admiration for Machiavelli.
fundamentally we come to the question of evil, of principalities and powers of the Old Gods, in Italy’s case one might reference the etruscans who preceded Rome, maybe those are the forces that are influencing the Pontiff
how else can one explain the reaction to an evil regime, that would readily liquidate many of the lead groups that compose the Democratic base,
and yet much of the Possum Senate, even the Court itself, seems blithely un interested in what is going on, Justice Thomas and Alito, are the rare exception, his short precis on progressivism, reminds of the stakes,
as to the ‘nuclear dust’ are we speaking of fully enriched uranium, when did we hit the zero barrier,
there is the question of who is really in charge, Pezekhian seems to have relayed certain concerns about the fragility of the regime,
vahidi and kholmagr (sic) seem to have stopped boasting, has the proverbial tongue, has been had,
Good to hear from you, Miguel.
This is yuge! Yeah, I know it’s not over ’til it’s over, but I say it is the beginning of the end.
I almost can’t believe it. In a few days over six weeks a couple tiers of Iran’s leadership were killed, its navy and air force annihilated, its military infrastructure likewise and Iran has given up its nuclear ambitions, Whatever threats Iran could make have been neutralized.
Even with the combined military might of the US and Israel, war is a tricky and uncertain business. Nonetheless, Trump has made good on his rosy promises. A dozen or so Americans have, sadly, been killed, but no boots on the ground, no Forever War.
And the threat of Iranian nukes is over for decades, if not longer.
Now Trump can get back to restoring the economy, fighting for the midterms and fighting off the Democrat and Republican fifth columns.
In response to Pope Leo, I pray “O Lord, we give thanks for our victories in this Just War.”
The Iranian regime may take longer, but its evil leaders have been exposed, not only as evil — Iranians know that — but as incompetent, overreaching buffoons, who have met their match.
After the Fall of the Berlin Wall, it still took a couple years for the USSR to dissolve, but dissolve it did, even after Gorbachev tried to reform it.
@ IrishOtter49 > “In terms of statecraft there is an argument to be made that he is at least the equal of Tallyrand, Richelieu, Metternich, and Bismarck. There’s a touch of Machiavelli in him too.”
Put together.
This detailed study of the background to the Iranian War supports IrishOtter’s comment.
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2026/04/16/the_hormuz_blockade_is_not_about_iran__its_about_china_1177062.html
I also think President Trump is smart, but he’s got a team that’s brilliant.
Most of his Cabinet picks are doing great things in their own departments, but who is putting together all the behind-the-scenes details and paperwork and planning to pull off something this ambitious?
A complementary post by V. D. Hanson.
https://townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2026/04/16/iran-a-longer-view-n2674575#comment-6864874724
Trump has a touch of humor sometimes lacking in the strategic thinkers IrishOtter cited.
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/amy-curtis/2026/04/17/trump-response-to-iran-plan-to-execute-four-more-protesters-n2674626
“President Trump Was Asked About Iran’s Plan to Execute More Protesters, and His Response Was Perfect”
REPORTER: Iran is going to execute four more protesters, including the first woman protester. What do you tell Iran?
TRUMP: Tell that to the Pope.
Multiple reports this morning from both right and left sources saying Iran has declared the Strait closed and has fired on a tanker. Many ships about to transit have turned back. I’ve seen no reports on trump’s response. For myself, I think Power Plant and Bridges day is overdue. How much patience can trump exhibit in face of such? Is going to be an interesting weekend. In 24 hours we’ve gone from a deal being signed this weekend to Iran firing on ships.
Bridges, and Power Plants, and Blockades, oh my!
The Flying Monkeys are about to find out some more.
Trump has a touch of humor sometimes lacking in the strategic thinkers IrishOtter cited.
Good point, totally agree. This did occur to me after I posted my comment and the editing time ran out. I think he has more than a “touch” of humor, however. He’s got a great sense of humor and can be very funny.
I doubt that Bismarck, especially, had much in the way of a sense humor. But he was a Prussian German, so …