Orban out, Magyar in
I can’t say I’ve followed Hungarian politics all that much. I knew that Orban had been in power for ages and what his general policies have been, and that J. D. Vance visited that country recently to support him in the upcoming Hungarian election. But about his opponent, Peter Magyar, I knew next to nothing.
When I read last night that Orban’s party – and therefore Orban himself – had been voted out in a huge defeat, I tried to read up on Magyar. He was described as “center-right” – which certainly doesn’t sound like a globalist leftist, although European political designations can be mighty opaque. The results appear decisive:
With over 60 percent of the votes in the highest turn-out election in Hungary’s post-communist history, Magyar’s Tisza party had more than 52% support to 38% for Orbán’s governing Fidesz party. Astonishingly, Magyar’s party went from holding zero seats in the 199-seat Hungarian National Assembly to winning a supermajority of at least 138 seats.
That is indeed astonishing, until you read that up till 2024 Magyar was allied with Orban, broke off because of corruption, and formed a new party. So it seems to me that perhaps a lot of people fed up with Orban just went over to Orban-lite.
Some have painted a parade of horribles that will proceed from Orban’s repudiation. There are dire predictions of untrammeled Third World immigration and Budapest being held in thrall by Brussels. None of that seems terribly likely to happen. Magyar had a prominent role in Orban’s party until 2024. …
He holds and ran on positions that are very similar to Orban’s. In fact, had Orban not seemed either disinterested in or willfully blind to the massive corruption infesting his party, he may have won again today. …
What we can expect from Magyar is more of Orban’s Hungarian nationalism. But it will come without the slobbering over Putin and the reflexive urge to be against anything other EU nations support. He opposes Third World immigration and is unlikely to back off that position. His main challenge will be to recharge Hungary’s moribund economy.
I certainly hope that’s the case.
I wonder what’s Hungarian for “Gooderer & Harderer”?
Never, never underestimate boredom in the electorate.
When I was on my River Cruise last Oct/Nov, I did a post trip to Poland. Our guide is from Budapest. We have been emailing every once in a while. I ask her about the election, her comment was “Still Drunk, Very Happy”. I hope she stays happy.
A lot of commentors in other places think the new guy will embrace the EU and all the immigration that entails. And they are also saying now Trump lost an ally. I guess we shall see.
SHIREHOME:
But do they offer any reason they say that? Like even a quote? I haven’t seen a thing; just the assertions that it’s so.
Nothing presented in our media about foreign politics is going to be worth much; it will be forced into service of some American political narrative. This is how we get surprised about someone like Giorgia Meloni, for example.
Orban’s opponent was in his party from 2010 – 2024 in pretty high positions. Either he’s not as different from Orban as he is being represented, or Orban’s party has all along been different from how it’s been represented.
The reason our media, whether legacy or new, even bothers about this is to twist it into something that somehow reflects on Trump.
Niketas:
Agreed.
Magyar is Hungarian for Hungarian.
And it’s pronounced “majar”.
If the new leader holds onto the no mass migration line, they’ll be okay.
I hope Tom Grey (in nearby Slovakia) weighs in.
Hungary has a “first past the post” in a county who is the local Representative. But there is also another office for national Representative, chosen by party.
This system tends to exaggerate the outcome, yet has the clear benefit of keeping the country from muddling along in divided government like Germany or the Netherlands.
Seeing video and hearing analysis among the young explains Magyar’s appeal, it three things. First, the youth vote wants Hungary to belong in Europe, instead of Orban’s deep objections and anti-cooperation against Brussel’s EU.
The second is fear of Russia and empath for Ukraine. But Orban respected that as a Cold War legacy, Russian nuclear power on the Danube and Russian oil have kept cost of electricity much lower in Hungary than Austria and Germany. And therefore, keeping Hungary attractive to manufacturing.
A related problem in the Ukraine-Russia conflict is the former’s small minority of Hungarians innEastern Ukraine. Because of the war, even teaching Hungarian among them has been outlawed. Orban stands up for them! But I don’t know Magyar’s stance on this.
Finally. Both the appearance and reality of Official corruption is a perennial one. Orban’s party Fidez (Fidelity) and their string of three or four victories, plus one in the naughtiest, found the previous government rejected in great part because of scandals of corruption.
One doubts that Fidez could ever be immune to the problem. The history of government corruption and “self-dealing” or cronyism goes back to the nation’s origins in mid-19th century. So, it is traditional there. The young are idealistic and reject that it is both a recurrent and perennial issue.
Fortunately, Magyar may keep a lid on abandoning Hungary’s unique nationalism. This possibility made him an attractive vehicle for constructive reform instead of radical dismantling Orban’s accomplishment.
The change may well be salutary, unless Magyar caves completely to the EU Power. The latter seduction has happened in the neighbors like Poland and Czechia.
neo:
The Telegraph’s (UK) Ukraine The Latest podcast has TDS but nonetheless is unsure about Magyar. They are giddy about Orban’s defeat but are unsure if that will benefit Ukraine in its war against Roosia, say in allowing Ukraine access to 90 billion of frozen Roosoan assets.
They are also equally giddy that Orban’s loss was a defeat for Putin and a failure of J D Vance’s endorsement.
The Telegraph’s Ukraine The Latest podcast TDS is tiresome and juvenile.
Regarding the “language” rights of Hungarian-speaking Ukrainians who live near the Hungarian/Ukrainian border that was viewed with concern before the election as these “rights” are used by Roosia to justify military action in the Baltics and in Luhansk, Donbass, and Transnistria. Orban took up that tool before the election as well. He rattled that sabre in desperation it seems.
Sennacherib, I agree. 16 years is a long time in politics. Change is seductive (witness Clinton and Obama campaign slogans).
I recently had a Polish worker in my house. Since I’m also Polish heritage, we talked about current events there. I was surprised at how pro-EU he was. “The roads are great now–they never were before,” he said. When I asked him about the dissolution of national sovereignty he shrugged his shoulders.
Hinderaker’s take:
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2026/04/viktor-orban-departs-the-scene.php
“Moreover, Orban didn’t lose to a liberal. Péter Magyar is a former member of Orban’s party, and his views on immigration are no more liberal than Orban’s. In some ways, he is more like an American conservative than Orban has been.”
I am cautiously optimistic but given the state of Europe that might be too much. Orban is far from the worst of creatures in Europe, and he has done Hungary’s most important task by clamping down on illegal invasion of his country by “migrants”, and of course was never an autocrat. However he has been rather two faced in many ways, positioning himself as a champion of Western Civilization and in many ways actually being so but also taking PRC and Kremlin money and shilling “multipolarity” from regimes that have never respected the concept and giving the likes of Jobbik a fair bit of influence. Supposedly Magyar broke with him over some kind of wrongful pardon of someone for pedophilia that resulted in a number of Fidesz pols being forced to drop on their swords but which seriously cast questions about Orban himself.
https://www.rferl.org/amp/hungary-novak-resignation-orban-grip/32816814.html
One promising sign is that Magyar came from within Orban’s party as an apostate, and that this happened after attempts to defeat him from the left failed. Magyar is saying the right things for me to a large extent, but then wouldn’t he be? So I remain cautious. Orban was far from
The best possible man and I believe many English speaking right wingers like us have an overly favorable view of him, but he is also far from the worst and there are plenty of scum around.
Davemay,
Thanks, I was thinking of Churchill right after
WWII.
Davemay,
Since you said you were polish: https://x.com/i/status/2037628256812192117
@ Sennacherib – Ima use that joke at my optometrist next month!
Aesop,
You’re welcome to it.
“The latter seduction has happened in the neighbors like Poland and Czechia.”
Yes, except that in the Czech Republic’s latest election, I believe that a Conservative less fond of the EU won; so there has been some clawback.
Similarly in Poland, though it is still struggling against pro-EU opponents that have been engaging in obvious shenanigans to try to deny victory to the more Conservative Party.
In both cases the EU has been doing its best to shore up those it supports. (Cf. Romania.)
File under: Democracy is great!…as long as the right guys win…
I wonder how this will affect Rod Dreher. If I understand correctly, Orban’s government hired him, he’s been living in Budapest for the last few years. His next Substack will probably discuss this.