Negotiating with Iran
Query: if everyone to the right of AOC knows that the Iranian leaders (or players to be named later) are not to be trusted, why would people think that the US negotiators are blissfully unaware of that and inevitably will be duped by them? Why assume this administration is that stupid?
It pays to be nervous about this, of course – very nervous. And I am. But I find it odd to assume that the negotiating group is ignorant of what everyone else on the right seems to already know. I suppose it depends how desperate to end the war you think the administration is. I happen to think that Trump is willing to keep going unless something very reassuring happens as a result of the talks, or at the very least will be making sure there is compliance – or else.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth issued an ultimatum to Iran Wednesday, urging the nation to give up its enriched uranium — or President Trump will launch another “Operation Midnight Hammer” to seize it.
While the two-week cease-fire deal between the US and Iran does not address the nearly 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium in Tehran’s possession, Hegseth told reporters on Wednesday that the US will secure the atomic material no matter what.
“We’ll get it. We’ll take it, we’ll take it out,” Hegseth said of the enriched uranium, vowing to complete one of President Trump’s main goals of the war. …
“But what’s clear… is they’ll never have a nuclear weapon or the capability to get a path to one.”
Recall that this war was preceded by several weeks of negotiations – probably with a different crew of Iranians – and they failed. Recall that most people online felt that we would be duped by those negotiations, but that’s not the way it worked out. In fact, we seem to have learned a few things from them.
I would like very much for the Iranian regime to change. But I don’t think that’s going to happen yet, if ever. But if it does, I think the Israelis (Mossad, etc.) will be highly involved.
Take your antivenom with you before you sit down to negotiate with the scorpion (Iran). It isn’t if, but when.
It is belief that Trump very well knows that what remains of the former Iranian islamic dictatorship can not be trusted. I further believe that this ceasefire has been implemented (if that is the right word) in order to depressurize his political position in advance of the mid-term elections. He probably did not want to go into those elections while engaged in an active shooting war with the concommitant possibility of American soldiers being killed. or worse yet, taken captive by the hostile regime. Once the midterms are over and the electoral die has been cast, he can and will return to active warmaking. He will either have a republican Congress behind him or be facing the inevitable impeachment proceedings by a democrat house of reps. Either way, the decks will have been cleared to keep bombing, strafing, shooting and killing IRGC troops and their “leaders,” whoever those “leaders” may be. Whether I am correct or not is irrelevant; it’s only Trump and his inner circle who know the truth. However, I trust him to make the correct decision.
The Iranian regime cannot be trusted. Their ideology, ethos, or fundamental belief is that they must convert or eliminate all those that do not give their lives to Allah. Most especially Israel and The Great Satan – the United States of America. They will say and do anything in support of that cause.
I agree with @Steve that President Trump is playing politics with the ceasefire, but not for the purpose of shoring up the midterms. Rather he is working to clearly expose the duplicity and lack of good faith of the Iranian leadership (mullahs and IRGC). Once he is convinced that enough people in the world see and understand this, the eradication of the regime will restart.
Whatever else, Trump has been the best POTUS on Iran since 1979.
The characteristic of the left and nevertrumpers is that they hate Trump and attack him for whatever reason.
Many were attacking him for the “end civilization” comments and then flipped to “TACO” once the ceasefire was announced. This isn’t a serious response based on genuine concern over events, they are just attacks on Trump.
The Democrats just want power.
True victory in Iran involves regime change. That is ideal and may not occur. Failing that neutering Iran for a decade or so might have to do.
Agree with Steve.
IRGC-ruled Iran holds Hormuz and will do so indefinitely. Any regime that shoots down, murders more than 20.000 Iranians demonstrating peaceably will not hesitate in its evil tactics. It’s going to be a long, long struggle, dominos falling right and left with unforeseeable results. I wish I could bet on the good guys, but I dunno.
Why is Vance involved? He has no experience and cannot be trusted to stand up to the Iranian snakes. More Rubio, less Vance.
Sheldon:
I agree.
However, I wonder how much authority he’s actually been given.
neo:
Agree also regarding Vance.
Beham Ben Taleblu addresses VP Vance’s presence at 9:41 — 11:16 in this C-Span interview: https://youtu.be/sq7Z-Y1zasg
Suppose we’re negotiating with the remains of the regime’s political leadlership while the IRGC is running the place? Or the IRGC isn’t taking orders about not shooting.
Been fifty years since I had any official instruction on our wonderweapons. But from what I hear, any time an anti-shipping munition is launched, its origin is obvious. And can be taken out. And that’s in addition to recon and intel. Could we more or less sterilize the coastal regions without Infantry? Along with decapppin IRGC.
Any end result that leaves the IRGC in charge, or even intact in any way will be a failure in my opinion. The IRGC must be completely destroyed.
sdferr:
Haven’t had a chance to take a look yet at the video you linked, but is it a good cop bad cop type of thing?
Chris B:
I’m sure Trump and company would dearly love to do that. And many have been killed. But there probably were between 150K and 200K – most still alive – and it’s not as though they’re all lined up in rows for target practice. How would you imagine it could be done? Especially without a full occupation?
I opine that none of us have any idea what is going on, and neither have the experts in the media.
We see time after time that Trump says that the Iranians are eager to negotiate and reach an agreement. Then the Iranian demands are published, and if the reports are accurate they appear to think that they won the war and are in a position to dictate terms.
I think that we have very smart people calling the shots on our side; but I have nagging concerns. For all of his legendary deal making, Trump actually has little if any experience in this sort of situation. I doubt that the Iranians are impressed by his bluster. As far as I know Rubio, and I admire him greatly, has no experience in high stakes international dealing, and neither does Vance. Witcoff, I know nothing about; but understand that like Trump his forte is business dealing. I think Kushner may be the most experienced of all based on his participation in Trump’s first term; i.e. The Abraham Accords. But he is the junior member of the team.
On the other hand, we assume that the wily Iranians are past masters; and metaphorically ten feet tall. But we assumed that about the Russian military back in the day.
My hunch is that when all is said and done, a great deal of additional ordinance will need to be expended. Despite the devastation inflicted to this point, if the Straits are not open the whole enerprise will be judged a fiasco.
A wild card. In the past day or so, someone, maybe Neo, speculated that the Israelis may have a strategy to precipitate regime change. That would certainly open a safety valve on an over pressurized boiler.
“But what’s clear… is they’ll never have a nuclear weapon or the capability to get a path to one.” Secretary of War Pete Hegseth
Never? A Pres. Newsom would share that determination? Iran will never buy nukes from Pakistan and give them to a proxy like Hezbollah?
A sufficiently Islamized UK or France won’t give some to Iran to use as they see fit?
It’s not the West’s ability to prevent the Iranian theocracy from ever getting their hands on nukes, it’s the lack of consensus to do what’s necessary to prevent them from being acquired and used. As if they can’t “fundamentally transform” the West, the Marxist left will settle for the West’s destruction. And ‘fundamental transformation’ will require reeducation camps for the “deplorables” and killing fields for the “irredeemable”.
Trump actually has little if any experience in this sort of situation.
True, but then, who does? I’m not at all worried about the negotiations themselves, but I am worried about what’s going on during the ceasefire. Rearming, retrenching, rounding up likely regime enemies, etc. – all things that are just going to make it harder to kill them later.
It seems that a little bit of reality is starting to dawn around here, evidenced by the folks who realize that this conflict cannot (or should not) end with Iran’s new-found leverage over the Strait of Hormuz intact.
I think that’s correct, but it is not at all clear that we would be able to remove the Iranian regime’s power to block the strait by simply continuing the bombing that we’ve already been doing for the past 6 weeks.
Will re-opening the strait require significant boots on the ground? Could we do it without causing significant and/or lasting disruptions to the global petroleum market?
If Trump believes that the answer to either of those questions is no, I seriously doubt that he’s ever going to resume hostilities. He’s much more likely to try to play a public relations game and go back on the talking point from a few weeks ago about how the Europeans and Chinese use Hormuz, so they should re-open it.
FWIW – I think he knows the situation he’s in since the the bombing failed to remove the regime and his hyperbole about “ending a civilization forever” was an attempt to bluff his way out of it. Now he’ll try to bluff his way into making people believe that whatever negotiated settlement he reaches with the Iranians is a win. It sure looks like the Iranians hold the balance of the leverage right now.
An addendum to my previous thoughts.
I frankly believe that the negotiations are farcical for a couple of reasons.
First, one has to assume that the Pakistanis are honest brokers. I think that there is ample, nay overwhelming, evidence to dispute that notion.
Second. I cannot imagine how it is possible to conduct high stakes negotiations without being able to observe first hand the other party’s reactions and demeanor. Without the abilitey to listen to the tone, and the specific wording in response to demands or overtures. This obstacle is amplified by the use of the Pakistanis as middle men.
When I think of this process, a Gilbert and Sullivan Opera comes to mind. An upbeat musical score accompanying gibberish.
Bauxite, I agree. As I noted before General Keane advocates taking and holding Kharg, and other key islands. That makes sense to me. I will add somewhat TIC that the Saudis and Gulf states have the wealth to hire a mercenary army to hold them. We know that they won’t fight themselves.
I fully agree that Vance should not be leading any negotiation with Iran–I’d much rather Rubio do that. He’s tougher and smarter. I also am losing respect for Vance given his silence on Carlson’s outright anti-antisemitism.
I have no faith in this ceasefire and think its actually a blunder by Trump, whom I support. I believe his ego got in the way given his desire to be thought of as a peacemaker and his huge self esteem as a deal maker. I think he’s deluding himself.
I also think he’s actually betraying the Persian people, seemingly willing to leave with a fig leaf “peace” that would have set Iran back maybe a decade, which is good, but is just a longer kick of the can down the road in the end.
He’s totally lost momentum re Iran. If they continue (how is he accepting that??) blocking the SOH, he’ll look really feckless at this point.
Hopefully I’m very wrong, as I agree he’s got a terrific team around him, and consider him to be extremely smart and cunning, but I worry about his ego driven impulse in this case.
Geoffrey Britain – You’re on to something. The only way to definitively prevent Iran from getting nukes is to topple the regime or (maybe) take away their ability to make money selling oil.
If they come out of this with their oil revenue intact, they are going to be even more eager to go nuclear as soon as they possibly can.
CC™-R:
You have a whole flock of crows in a highly agitated state again, based on you predicting prognosticating track record.
Not so much good cop-bad cop, it’s that the IR requested VP and VP is as high a level as possible showing seriousness, as well as VP’s initial reported skepticism of the operation as a whole would favor return to war if he can’t be cnvinced IR wants to negotiate in good faith. This reply is rushed, so has less nuance than Taleblu’s analysis, apologies. Gotta go.
Can a concensus with specific terms come into being among the Arab neighbors? If so it could bring about a much more stable outcome.
It looks like the Twelvers will still be in power no matter what happens. A concensus to starve Iran is the only way I see to force such a change. That may be impossible. However, a joint Arab/American occupation of Kharg might being about a level of control that would make it impossible for them to fund all their proxies and go back to mass producing missles.
A look at the actual geography around Hormuz brings up an idea to take out the power and infrastructure in that area. It appears to be lightly populated. With no water the cities in that area would empty. It would be hard for Iran to threaten the Strait with no local power. no bridges, no fuel, no water, etc.
https://youtu.be/V_wj1Rx5fDA?si=EqiCUsw9UFXHIkOR
The brilliant VDH a voice of pragmatic perspective. Highly worthwhile listen.
Thanks Sharon W. That was great.
And thank you sdferr. Finally got around to listening to the Taleblu interview. Wow is that guy impressive. He has become THE guy I want to hear from on issues regarding the Middle East.
And while I’m at it thank you neo. This blog – along with the commentary, and the timely and meaningful links – is such a spectacular way to stay informed.
Personally, I think the negotiations are a head fake. The war won’t be over until all the uranium is captured and removed and its refineries destroyed and buried. That has always been Trump’s declared goal, and he has said so over and over for years. It is the most significant item under negotiation. He doesn’t impress me as someone who will quit with the goal this close. The Iranians will end their nuclear capabilities either peacefully or by force, but they will lose them when this is over.
Negotiations?
“Ambassador Leiter to Pakistani minister: You’re not a mediator, you’re the problem;
“Israeli Ambassador to the US sharply rebukes Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif for calling Israel “evil” and accusing it of genocide.”—
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/425278
“Iran: No US talks until Lebanon ceasefire holds;
“Iran says talks to end the war with the US depend on Washington honoring ceasefire commitments – including halting fighting in Lebanon.”—
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/425279
Trump will destroy his own political movement to do what is right.
@ Sennacherib – if Trump’s political movement insists he protect it by doing wrong, then it is not worth supporting.