On the question of regime change in Iran
There’s not a whole lot of information on the topic, and even the small amount available is difficult to evaluate in terms of its reliability.
But I offer this:
The New Neo
A blog about political change, among other things
If the Iranian regime survives, this was all for nothing, as was expressed repeatedly. Russia will have restocked them in a year.
Tousi is a great source of info!
A big rebound in the markets today. The price of oil dropped several dollars from nearly $105/barrel. Because… ?
Trump says Iran operations will cease very soon, and while he didn’t say he would “re-open” the strait, he did say that there are enough other nations who need it open that they will ensure it is open. Is this really plausible?
The Mossad knows who is running Iran and who Trump is likely talking to if at all.
The IRGC and not the clerics or teh civilian government is most likely running Iran and the objective is to get rid of the IRGC or vastly weaken it and replace it.
I’m going to be very surprised if the Mossad doesn’t have a lot of assets in Iran, and they likely have some tricks up their sleeve to get the IRGC to cluster in groups thus making them easier to kill.
They could be mist.
om – as so many have wished.
@ om & R2L – you pushed the right button.
“Then the idiot who praises, with enthusiastic tone
All centuries but this, and every country but his own;
…
And apologetic statesmen of a compromising kind
Such as — What d’ye call him — Thing’em-bob, and likewise — Never-mind
And ‘St— ‘st— ‘st— and What’s-his-name, and also You-know-who —
The task of filling up the blanks I’d rather leave to you
But it really doesn’t matter whom you put upon the list
For they’d none of ’em be missed — they’d none of ’em be missed!”
https://genius.com/Gilbert-and-sullivan-ive-got-a-little-list-lyrics
An updated version, which is very much in the same spirit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWo_3CIcTBQ
Jan 22, 2016
Richard Suart’s re-written and very topical Little List from The Mikado – not to be missed! From Jeremy Clarkson to Jeremy Corbyn, watch Richard Suart list his 2015 candidates for the Lord High Executioner’s chop, filmed at ENO’s production of Gilbert & Sullivan’s The Mikado.
(Suart is the correct name – I looked him up; otherwise I would have “corrected the typo” for Stuart. Got to check everything these days!)
“That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government”
Regime change in other countries is not up to us, but rather to the citizens of those countries.
Except when it isn’t.
— Unwilling Barkis
Unfortunately, it’s always been a high chance that the regime would survive in some form, short of ground troops and occupation. I hope for better, but I’ve always feared that the outcome would leave them in charge. Geographically and culturally, regime change in Iran is hard to make happen.
— rbj2
It doesn’t matter whose responsibility it is. The question is where do America’s interests lie. States change other states’ regimes regularly, when they see their interests in play.
One of the reasons 911 happened was that the Middle Eastern world perceived Saddam Hussein as having defeated George Bush I. Note that I didn’t say Iraq defeated America. After 1992, GWHB was gone and Hussein was still in power, and in the mindset of the region, that meant Hussein had defeated the Great Satan.
(The Romans used to have the same issue. A defeated power didn’t see themselves as having been defeated by/surrendered to the Republic, they saw themselves as submitting to one particular general or consul or person, and as soon as he died/left office, as far as they were concerned all obligations lapsed.)
It may in fact be effectively impossible for us to make regime change happen in Iran, given the cold limitations of national will and public indifference, but that doesn’t alter how it would be perceived elsewhere. If we leave with some recognizable version of the regime in charge, a lot of our enemies will see America has having been defeated again.
I’m honestly not sure what the best course of action is in this.
If this ends with the regime still in place and still in possession of its enriched uranium, it will be difficult to spin the result as a victory.
If this ends with the regime still in place, still in possession of its enriched uranium, and still in control of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, it will be impossible to spin it as a victory.
No matter how it “ends” CC™ will spin it as a defeat for the US and especially a defeat for The Great Orange Whale.
Totally unexpected and unanticipated, almost like the sun coming up in the morning.
CC™ had a great opportunity, being 4/1/2026, to say anything positive about President Trump. But he ain’t that clever.
No one likes to be bullied.
Bullies have no friends.
IRGC is, at bottom, a bully.
IRGC members may well believe that they can maintain power via
— hostage-taking, near and far
— blowing up stuff, near and far
— blowing up people who displease them, near and far
— firing missiles at other countries, near and far
— threatening multinational corporations — and!!!! their CEOs!!!!!!
It is not going to work.
I do not know much, but I am reasonably sure that bullying Kings and CEOs is not a formula for longterm success.
The IRGC/ IRI is dead; they may not all know it yet.
What hasn’t been reported as much is that the Mullahcracy’s been forced to rip up about 40 years of naval doctrine about the Strait, going from essentially promising a return to the 1980s (before Operation Praying Mantis) with the ability to violently stop all non-allied shipping in the Strait, to offering countries the chance to buy free passage in exchange for expelling US and Israeli diplomats (which literally nobody took), to posting to the UN that all “non-hostile shipping” was allowed through. This is not quite a 180 degree turn, but it is most of the way. And it isn’t hard to see why.
The Iranian Naval and Air Forces are never going to be able to be reconstituted to their former power in the way they were, at least if pressure is kept up. Likewise a generation or two of senior leadership and a good chunk of their nuclear infrastructure has been devastated. That doesn’t mean that all is well or is guaranteed to win, but it does mean that the campaign’s already had a bunch of effects that have been pretty heavily underplayed by the media, as well as others.
I wouldn’t say the IRGC or IRI are dead, but they might be on Death’s Door and several of their capacities are already dead.
If the Iranian regime survives, this was all for nothing, as was expressed repeatedly. Russia will have restocked them in a year.
==
Restocked with what?
==
The Russian military’s performance in the Ukraine suggests there’s not a lot of there there.
Could be worse for Iran, they could get more Temu weapons systems; much worse than any from ACME Inc.
”Restocked with what? The Russian military’s performance in the Ukraine suggests there’s not a lot of there there.”
Russia is building 60,000 to 80,000 Shahed drones and over a thousand ballistic and cruise missiles a year. It can make the Iranian mullahs the dominant military force in the region by giving them a small fraction of that.
As long as Russia is a military power its allies will be too.
AesopFan: “Got to check everything these days!” No one does that better than you and Neo!
HC68: “Geographically and culturally, regime change in Iran is hard to make happen.” This reminded me that the British could not subdue the Colonies because geographically we were just too large, and as a people, just too ornery – plus we did have the capability of making or obtaining our own arms.
Which leads me to … your additional remark: “I’m honestly not sure what the best course of action is in this.” Perhaps finding a way to deliver about 3 million rifles, with scopes, and 1000 to 2000 rounds each, to a suitable group of partisans might even the score in regard to fighting and subduing or turning the IRGC?? Mossad might be able to sort out just who inside Iran is deserving of this largess.
But as mkent points out, we ought not delay in doing so.