Iran news roundup
(1) Interesting observation:
This war is solidifying the petrodollar system as it evolves into a hybrid petro/LNG-dollar. The old system was built on Saudi crude priced in USD. The new system is built on American crude plus American gas from the Gulf Coast, with no alternative supplier of comparable scale. The dependency is deeper because LNG infrastructure requires long term contracts & regasification terminals that lock buyers into supply relationships for decades. Europe & the Pacific allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.) cannot pivot away as there is nowhere left to pivot to. They’re now locked into the US energy system.
(2) Rubio is off to Europe, and speaks to the press:
(3) Is a “final blow” being readied against Iran?:
This “final blow” against Iran would include U.S. ground, air, and sea forces. Trump will have at least four options, according to Axios.
– Invading or blockading Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub.
– Invading Larak, an island that helps Iran solidify its control of the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic outpost hosts Iranian bunkers, attack craft that can blow up cargo ships, and radars that monitor movements in the strait.
– Seizing the strategic island of Abu Musa and two smaller islands, which lie near the western entrance to the strait and are controlled by Iran but also claimed by the UAE.
– Blocking or seizing ships that are exporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the Hormuz Strait. …Another option Trump might choose involving ground troops would be to send a small force to the Ishafan Tunnel Complex in central Iran. The majority of Iran’s 60% enriched uranium (estimated at over 200 KG) is believed to be stored within a deep underground tunnel complex at the Isfahan nuclear site.
Although the surface facilities at Isfahan were bombed in June 2025, the tunnels appear largely intact. Recent satellite imagery from early March 2026 showed a “very narrow access point” through which the material could potentially be retrieved, despite the entrances being buried under soil.
(4) The IDF has struck a major Iranian missile and mine production site.
(5) Battleswarm Blog is a good place to go for information on what’s going on in Iran day by day.
NOTE: You can pick and choose your news slant; there is plenty that’s positive and plenty that’s negative. It’s all speculation; I try to stick to actual events. Most of the other news involves guesses about how strong the mullahtocracy is and whether it can survive. I have no idea and I don’t believe anyone else does, either. But the status quo was unacceptable; had we waited, the task would have been even more difficult as their defensive and offensive situation improved.
Maybe a 5 Day Rule.
I would not want US Troop in Iran proper. However, the Islands are fair game. But they really need to be softened up a lot more, plus areas on the mainland.
Someone today, not on the Net, that Iran is charging a million dollars for a Tanker to transit the Strait. Don’t know if it is true. Is the Iranian Banking system still up and running that can collect a toll? Anyone know.
Good collection of links, Neo, thanks.
Who knows what the troops for? Not me. However, I can guess that the Iranians need to guess and move their assets about accordingly. Maybe that’s what the troop movements, announced days ago, are for.
So, Rubio/Vance or Vance/Rubio?
It is noticeable that there is more news about Israeli strikes than US strikes. The US is keeping a pretty tight lid on information.
I think Kharg island is a red herring. It can easily be shut down, occupation would accomplish little that couldn’t be accomplished without casualties. And who wants to set up surrounded by tanks of oil? Seems unsafe.
Smart that neo starts off with X-Delt’s Big Picture analysis.
I just found a YouTube channel sporting almost one million subscribers with a good look at the fracturing of Iran, militarily and politically.
Tehran in Regime Collapse – “Iran Military Turns on IRGC” and people fight Basij! The Army gives 20 bullets to each two men. But no food or water.
This spells super vulnerability for a million soldiers. Reserves have been activated, but nobody shows up. They often flee to border areas.
The IRGC privilege over the Army means injuried Army soldiers are deliberately left to fend for themselves or die.
As logistics collapse, loyalty dissolves. Groups of Army personnel return to their towns.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GPPMSEg6bs
Very plausible analysis.
EPISODE DESCRIPTION:
regular army (Artesh) and the elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), as the IRGC hoards resources and refuses to send ambulances for wounded Artesh soldiers. With 50,000 deserters already abandoning their posts and civilians taking over Basij checkpoints in Tehran, the regime’s 47-year monopoly on violence is completely shattered.
In this video, we analyze the 3 waves of Iran’s military disintegration:
THE COMMAND DECAPITATION: How the elimination of over 50 generals in the first week left the Iranian army headless and paralyzed.
THE 20-ROUND CRISIS: Why the complete collapse of logistics has left front-line troops with no food, no water, and almost zero ammunition.
ARTESH VS. IRGC: The horrifying reality of the IRGC abandoning wounded regular army soldiers to protect their missile systems.
THE PROXY STARVATION: Why the total internal collapse of Iran’s logistics is a death sentence for Hezbollah and the Houthis.
___________
The enforcers collapse explains why Trump offered them more time to gather alliances this week.
A longer YT post shows fresh video on civilian city attack on IRGC truck. But starts off that satellite imagery shows that KC-135 air tankers got hit in Saudi’s Arabia. Another YouTuber asserts there were casualties. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWUQn6MK3cQ
If American troops are needed on the ground in Iran for any reason, they first have to be there. As quickly as things have moved, I don’t know if the reason they are being moved there today will be the same thing they are actually needed for, but they can’t be used for anything if they are not first in place to be used, and that isn’t something that happens in a day. Just like getting the carrier groups in position wasn’t something that could be done in a day.
Neo, your last statement (But the status quo was unacceptable; had we waited, the task would have been even more difficult as their defensive and offensive situation improved.) is the most cogent and pithy summary of the whole Iran affair that I’ve seen. That’s it in a nutshell.
Mike Doran:
https://x.com/i/status/2037898152343138412
If you want Kharg, shut the gulf.
Sometimes you must act even though it’s fatal to your cause.
The decapitation of the Iranian military (Artesh and IRGC) has left the decision making in the hands of people who were not chosen to lead a few months ago. So the chatter about the mobilization of those units of the 82nd and the repositioning of the MEF to the gulf area leaves the decisions of how to deal with this to those surviving lesser Iranian leaders.
John Madden often said that when a defense player was injured the first thing the offense should do is test the replacement. He said that there was something, a shortcoming, that kept him out of the starting lineup. The goal was to find it and exploit it. We may be seeing this philosophy being played out on a much larger scale. Are the replacement leaders up to the task?
Safe to say that the MSM reporting of the Iran war will all be negative regardless if what they report is accurate or not.
If the USA launches 3 missiles at a legit target, and only two hit and totally destroy the target , the MSM will speak only of the one that missed the target.
You really cannot hate the MSM too much.
(1) US LNG exporting has been an interesting development over the last 20 years or so. Of course, the founders and first leaders of that movement started well before that.
I recall when Cheniere Energy was first in the financial news. They required lots of permits and clearances and then they had to spend billions over at least a 5 year period to build the infrastructure. And there was always the threat of political action stopping them midway. Think, Keystone pipeline.
There was tremendous uncertainty and doubt amongst the crucial and necessary financiers. But ultimately, it all came to fruition.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheniere_Energy
TommyJay
Five-year price performance for LNG: 300%.