So much news
So much to read, so much to hear, so much to think about. I can’t cover it all, so I pick and choose, day by day. But some general thoughts …
For those of us who are older – and I know many of you are – we remember back to the 1979 Iranian revolution. Until the last few days, I didn’t really think I’d see the regime fall. And of course it still might not fall; nothing is certain. But the stunning scope of the attack on Iran by the US and Israel is really astounding.
I’m planning to write a post about that tomorrow – the coordination of intelligence and the weaponry that’s being revealed. It’s like something out of science fiction. And there’s probably plenty we still don’t know.
What will happen in Iran if the regime is destroyed? Could things get worse than they already were? I don’t know; it’s certainly possible, although Iran has been so bad for so long that I think it’s worth the risk. The rewards could be extremely great if things do work out.
Trump and Netanyahu were well aware of that:
Ahead of Saturday’s US-Israel attack on Iran, US President Donald Trump received briefings both warning of the potential major US casualties and touting the prospect of a significant shift in the Middle East in favor of US interests, a US official told Reuters Saturday.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the briefers described the operation to the president as a high-risk, high-reward scenario.
I think that’s obvious. It’s probably the main reason why no president has ever tried it before, despite the many provocations. I think we can safely say that Trump is different.
Indeed it could be the ending of an era, the ayatolla era, a time of implacable evil, always there, sometimes distracted (when at war with Iraq), but mostly like a tumor, metastatic.
The religion of Iran is just not Islam, it is Twelver Shia Islam, the most fanatical version of Islam A twelfth Imam will return, some believe out of a sacred well, and it will be the end of days. Twelver hadith literature describes the period before the Mahdi’s return as marked by severe injustice, violent upheaval, and widespread bloodshed. They will never give up, Paradise awaits those killed in battle.
I totally support Trump. They will have to be destroyed and a new secular government established. We are paying the price for electing incompetent idiots like Carter, Clinton, and Obama. Thank God for our encredible military technology.
Tonight’s Hannity interview:
___________________________
There’s never been a President like Donald J. Trump.
–Benjamin Netanyahu
___________________________
Amen.
And there’s probably plenty we still don’t know
There are plenty of videos of Israel at work, and what they are doing, but the ones about the US are short, and uninformative. The first day Israel hit 600 targets, the US 900. What was the US hitting? I don’t think the lack of news is an accident, and indeed things are still vague after this morning’s briefing. I trust we are doing useful things, and would love to know what. But I don’t “need to know”, and that is the proper order of things. I expect there will be books, or lengthy reports, at some point in the future.
I wasn’t born until 1970, but remember being in the room playing on the floor while dad watched the news from a very early age. I remember often hearing about “Guerillas fighting” – which I imagined to be actual “Gorillas” – which I now suspect was my young childhood self hearing news from the Vietnam War.
I also distinctly remember the Iran Hostage crises. I remember Reagan getting elected. I remember from the time of my childhood hearing about crowds in Iran chanting “Death to America!”
It bothers me that so many people seem to not know or understand such people should not get nukes! This is clearcut to me !
I remember it very well.
Three things I’d like to see before I die that now seem realistic:
1) The fall of the Islamic Republic
2) The fall of the Cuban regime
3) Mankind setting foot on Mars
Don’t hold out for the Cubs and the World Series.
Rubio’s remarks here.
Richard Illyes wrote “Twelver hadith literature describes the period before the Mahdi’s return as marked by severe injustice, violent upheaval, and widespread bloodshed.”
The first and the third prerequisites have been met, at least.
= = = = = = = =
I wonder how the killing of tens of thousands of protesters ( perhaps the bravest and most passionate opponents of the mullahs), will affect Iran in the days to come.
Hi neo,
If you would- please write a section, in your planned post about [the 1979, Iranian Revolution], or please write in a post on its own- an explanation about the 1979 crime:
the Iran hostage crisis.
I think that, [the Iran hostage crisis], is an important event in the history of the Iranian Revolution.
Cheers,
TR.
I was interested USAF in England in 1979, sure got the blood up in young military men that was never resolved until now.
My Slovak dentist was visiting Iran when she was 6, before the huge ‘78 earthquake (Sep) which I only then remembered happened just before the (physically sick) Shah gave up power to street protesters in’79.
Neo, have you thought about how the earthquake literally undermined support for the Shah?
I had not, but now I do, and liken it to blaming Bush for Katrina. Especially the (inevitably) non-perfect response.
As the Shah gave up, the three main protesting groups were pro-democracy, pro-communism, and a plurality of pro-Islamism. Or maybe they weren’t the most numerous, but they were by far the most willing to kill those who disagreed with them assuming power.
The most vicious killers will take power again, unless others are willing to kill them. I hope & believe that Trump will use Mossad as the chooser of Iranian boots on the ground for who to support.
Israel is an ally, neither puppet nor puppet-master. As an ally, their plan was to go and kill Iranian leaders, until there is an Iranian leader willing to live, & not be killed!, to live in peace with Israel. As Rubio said , if Iran was attacked by Israel, they would strike against both Israel & the US. @Niketas ++
Not spelled out: Israel had decided to attack, therefore we knew Iran was imminently prepared to attack the US, so we hit them (back??), first.
Smart war move, minimizing US casualties. Which is very good.
We are not the puppet masters of Israel, they can make the decision to attack with or without the US. The US going with Israel, is certain to mean fewer US casualties, and likely means more unsure Iranian IRGC & Army officers conclude that a) regime change is really coming, AND b) the good guys are fighting in a smart way, so c) the smart thing to do is join the future winners ASAP.
I’m looking for Iranian generals or even colonels who lead their troops against the regime, in favor of … what? Whom? Probably son of Shah promising early elections & democracy.
The Israelis long ago hacked the security cameras around the Ayatollah, so knew exactly when he was in the meeting where he Found Out his refusal to say the secret words, no nukes never, was a mistake. A literally deadly mistake.
They ain’t gonna develop nukes in the next decade, now.
Mossad directed & US supported Iranian boots on the ground, plus mass protests, often by Iranian women.
The world continues to have big changes.
With so many “new” leaders being killed after the old ones, perhaps the well may run dry. But in any case, even if the Twelver Shia regime survives in some form, it will have a whole lot fewer missiles and drones, not much capacity to build more, no navy, and no nuclear weapons or capability to produce them.
Looks like as of today at least the attack on Cyprus finally got the weak kneed Brits attention. They’ve now agreed to let the B2s use their bases. Great relief for those aircrews not having to do combat missions from the US. Though the Brits also said they are sitting this one out. Sad. Israel seems to be the only true ally anymore. Britain and Europe seem to be lost causes to the woke.
twelver shiaism seems to not have been much of a thing under the Sassanid dynast, that preceded the Pahlevis, who attempted a Kemalist formula, as far as that goes, my sources on the background to the ‘revolution’ are Amir Taheri, who was an editor of the Keyhan, in the times before, specially ‘Nest of Spies’ which illuminated the 53 event, past the narrative that has been constructed, it notes for instance the very thin reed that Mossadecq was resting upon, the Tudeh Communists, and some Westernized liberals, the former antagonized the Mullahs, the latter the Merchants ‘the Bazaaris’ because many of those oppositionists in the 60s and 70s were
Mossadecquists, they painted the black legend narrative,
looking at the big picture, the Shah was probably not nearly as brutal as Hassan of Morocco and his ‘Years of Lead’ campaign in the 60s and 70s, against the likes of Ben Barka, and even General Oufkir, and the Alouyites have endured to this day,
More like the last Czar, as Iran has echoed their northern neighbor, he was perhaps less ruthless than he should have been,
the initiol revolt resembles the Juhayman Grand Mosque siege, that French Paras settled,in the aftermath of in the birthpangs of this revolt
the land reform plan, and the immunity agreement for US forces, seem to have been the main sources of support for Khomeini
Eugene Kontorovich In today’s WSJ.
Iran Was Counting on the West’s Cravenness
https://archive.fo/3fph3
Someone here may have already come up with this – if so, sorry, there’s been a lot to read – but I have been asking myself if this all would be happening if Oct 7 hadn’t.
Another consideration for the news is how this is affecting London. Which is apparently less of a partner than historically.
https://x.com/i/status/2028533903263150172
This short discussion ( 1 hr. 18 min) gave me insight into the current circumstances regarding the geo-political reality that is Iran/Israel/USA (China/Russia). It is an excellent analysis. Miniter mentions the 1979 takeover and its continued effect for those who lived at the time.
https://www.youtube.com/live/eaB-GNL-dso?si=eNa_wnk21ls0L0l5
Trump on X is saying that, in his negotiations with Iran, he thought they were going to attack first. He didn’t want that. So maybe he forced the Israelis to attack.
So, no, Israel didn’t force the attack.
Rubio implied Israel might attack first, alone, which would have resulted in Iran attacking the US. Trump is claiming prime credit for the attack decision.
I don’t 100% believe this, but I do believe Trump has fantastic gut instinct for negotiations. Plus, I’m sure Bibi has pushed for a full regime change attack before, and claimed Israel was ready & willing at any time to join the US.
It’s the leader who wins the most, & Trump wants to BE the leader who wins the most. Trump looks better if it was his decision, and his words are now claiming credit.
Trump haters will keep saying he’s a puppet, but he’s not.
Trump has also said the next wave of leaders has been killed—another on X says that the 88 Elders, who can select the next leader, were meeting to do so. And they were bombed, all dead. Maybe nobody alive is authorized to name the new leader.
Trump joked about killing that third wave, which might not even happen, so many Iranians are calling and asking to surrender so as to get immunity.
What wild 2026!
Shia “Twelvers” are only among the most virulent form of islamism. Let us not forget the salafists and wahabis among the sunni branch of that execreable creed. They all adhere to the koran and its imprecations against “infidels,” by which they mean anyone not adhering to their sectarian beliefs. It is a regrettable fact of realpolitik that we here in America are forced to “play nice” with moslems because they control much of the middle east, from Turkey through the “‘stans” as well as Africa and southeast asia. Thankfully, many, perhaps most of the moslems across the globe are lackadaisical about koranic obedience, much like many, if not most Christians and Jews are “in name only” types rather than active believers in their religious creeds. These are the moslems whose “virtues” are praised by many in The West, because they seem like “nice people.” The idiot Piers Morgan is a prime example of this type of Westerner, who praises multiculturalism because it gives him a wider choice of dining options. Funny, though, these types never espouse Christian immigration into moslem majority countries; only the other way round is virtuous. I’ll accept such a proposition when Christian churches are allowed to be built in moslem lands and when Christian proselytizing is not punished as a crime. I don’t see that happening, though. So my attitude is “What’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander,” and islam’s prohibitions against Christianity should be reciprocated by Western Christian nations against islam, all of islam, not just the raging lunatic jihadis.
I don’t see that Iran could be worse. It will likely be much better if the people who seem to want freedom and a secular society, gain control.
— Jon Baker
😆
I had the exact same misapprehension as a little boy when I first heard the phrase ‘guerilla warfare’. I thought they were saying ‘gorilla’, and it made no sense to me.
I was a little kid during Watergate, and I thought they meant it literally, something to do with a dam.
— Don
I can easily imagine worse than the mullahs. It’s one reason I’ve been cautious about this whole thing. I support Trump’s actions, but I don’t take success for granted, even now.
That said, we need to keep in mind that even a successful outcome will still probably look like a theocracy to our eyes, or at least have a strongly Islamic tone. No society can operate independently of its religious foundation for very long. Even in the West the hyper-secular worldview favored by the ruling class is faltering everywhere.
The new Iran may be freer and more civilized, but it will not be a Western style liberal democracy (though it may have elections, heck, they have elections of a sort now).