So, how successful were the American strikes on Iran?
The goal was to degrade and if possible eliminate Iran’s program to develop nuclear weapons. First up is to determine how much damage was done by the bombs, and second would be whether some of the uranium was moved prior to the strikes. Furthermore, could the regime, or a successor regime, reconstitute the program, and if so how quickly?
And no, I don’t have the answers. But here’s some relevant information.
Iran says the US attack was a were flesh wound, but Israel and the US give preliminary results that are more catastrophic although clearly it’s early and more checking needs to be done.
Commenter “physicsguy” writes:
So I’ve now seen claims by the left that the Iranians moved everything out of Fordow 3 days before, and followed up with a supposed satellite pic of about a hundred trucks lined up there. Anyone else seen that? I assume AI generated to support their argument that Trump was duped, or that he knew and went ahead for political gain.
I can’t believe that the US and Israel didn’t have eyes on the location 24/7.
I’ve seen tons on that from the trolls at Insty and elsewhere. It seems to be based on this sort of thing:
A total of 16 cargo trucks were spotted on the access road leading up to the Fordow tunnel entrance on Thursday, but most had moved to a spot 1 kilometer (0.6 miles) northwest of the access road by the following day, Maxar said.
New trucks and multiple bulldozers had appeared close to the main entrance by Friday, with one truck very close to the main tunnel entrance, the satellite imagery provider said.
The significance of the activity is not yet clear, but Iranian state media reported key nuclear sites had been evacuated ahead of U.S. attacks, with enriched uranium moved “to a safe location.”
There’s no reason to trust a thing Iranian media says. So let’s see what Israel and the US say:
However, top US general Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, gave a more muted assessment of the strikes, saying that the full understanding of their effectiveness will “take some time.”
“Initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction.” …
Despite wide speculation that the nuclear material had been moved from the sites ahead of the strikes, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US believes that a significant amount of Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium was located in the Isfahan facility when it was struck.
In an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Rubio says that, while “no one will know for sure for days,” he doubts that Iran’s uranium stockpile was relocated before the operation.
“I doubt they moved it,” he told NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “They can’t move anything right now inside of Iran. I mean, the minute a truck starts driving somewhere, the Israelis have seen it, and they’ve targeted it and taken it out. So our assessment is, we have to assume that that’s a lot of 60% enriched uranium buried deep under the ground there in Isfahan.” …
He allowed that it would take days to know for sure whether the nuclear material was there.
Then there’s this at battleswarm blog:
Before the strike, video shows Iranian trucks lined up at the complex entrance. But the trucks look like open-roofed earth moving vehicles, not equipment transport vehicles. These were apparently used to cover the entrances with dirt.
However, there were a couple more specialized vehicles that may have been used to remove enriched uranium from the site.
“I can’t see everything important being evacuated in a couple of days. There’s bound to have been some equipment, some important equipment, left in here. The centrifuges, for example, can feasibly be dismantled and removed by truck, but is tricky to do, because of a base’s depth and will take time. And I think it’s unlikely Iran would have had enough time to do so. But Reuters does say that the enriched uranium had already been removed.”
More here:
1. Both Fordow and Natanz are under partial surveillance by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). … In several cases, the IAEA retained knowledge of infrastructure layouts and could remotely detect large-scale activity, especially if dismantling or evacuation were attempted.
2. This isn’t a warehouse full of sacks of potatoes. We’re talking about highly specialized, sensitive equipment, thousands of IR-1 and advanced IR-2m and IR-6 centrifuges. For context:
•Natanz had an estimated 15,000–20,000 centrifuges at peak capacity. Even after the JCPOA, thousands remained in use or storage.
•Fordow, while smaller, housed over 1,000 advanced centrifuges, some enriching uranium up to 60% purity in recent years.These are not items that can be boxed up and trucked out overnight. Dismantling a single cascade (a chain of 164 centrifuges) safely requires days of work, if not longer. Multiply that by hundreds of cascades, and you quickly realize this isn’t a quick getaway.
Additionally, centrifuges are connected to high-pressure uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) lines. Improper disassembly can lead to contamination, equipment damage, or worse, leaks of radioactive gas. Such evacuations would require weeks of preparation under controlled conditions.
3. Let’s not forget that the U.S. and Israel have had persistent, layered surveillance over these sites for years, satellites, high-altitude drones, SIGINT, HUMINT. Every inch of ground around Fordow and Natanz has been watched for telltale signs of activity. The idea that Iran stealthily evacuated multiple facilities without being detected is simply ludicrous.
Doesn’t sound all that likely to me.
NOTE: Please see also this article as well as this one.
I’d add that Israel’s powerful counterattack began only ten days ago. (Can you believe it?)
The Iranian leadership has been trying to deal with Israel’s air superiority, constant bombing, and its direct attacks on Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists themselves. Plus Iranians must realize how deeply Israeli intelligence has penetrated Iran’s secrets.
In the midst of such fear and chaos would you want to try a Hail Mary to move your precious enriched uranium to a new “safe” location?
Where are you gonna run? Where are you gonna hide?
Aside from that, aren’t the deep, fortified bunkers the safest places to store the enriched uranium? Where would you move it to that would be more secure? It would just end up being easier to target.
Speaking of no place to hide, take a gander at this beauty: “We gave senior IRGC commanders 24 hours to leave Iran or die. And to prove to them that we are serious, we gave them 12 hours.
Here are the phone calls.”
https://x.com/TheMossadIL/status/1937253459868213416
Phone recordings and translations at link.
Another link to the same recording: https://x.com/Doranimated/status/1937238505291178212
Is it possible that radiation levels could be checked remotely or by drone in some way and used as a very approximate way to judge what sort of damage was done to this stockpile?
Yeah. Ya know what? Not only did the satellite video those trucks at the site, it followed them to destination.
If there is uranium on those trucks, those trucks gonna die
sdferr:
Israel must have the Iranian leaders totally spooked, if not terrified.
I’ll bet there isn’t a lot of clear thinking going on in Tehran.
Fox News is reporting (breaking news, no link) that Israel and Iran have agreed to a complete ceasefire.
I guess the Iranian leaders thought they might not survive much longer.
This bit of dialog is from the movie The Peacemaker (1997):
(George Clooney and Nicole Kidman)
Thomas Devoe: Okay, that does me no good. Now let’s deal with the facts at hand. 23 hours ago, General Alexander Kodoroff stole ten nuclear warheads.
Julia Kelly: He’s just a delivery boy. I’m not afraid of the man who wants ten nuclear weapons, Colonel. I’m terrified of the man who only wants one.
In the film, some eastern European nut-job tries to detonate a small nuke in in midtown Manhattan in a suicide mission.
I can’t help but think that: 1) The thinking of the Iranian leadership maybe isn’t all that much different from the aforementioned nut-job. You don’t need much uranium for that mission. 2) Wouldn’t the Iranians have some modest portion of the enriched uranium squirrelled away in one or more off-site locations, as an ongoing precaution.
One argument against 2) could be that the leadership may not trust their own subordinates within their government. If you have portions stored in a few different secret locations, it is much harder to really secure it against theft.
Yes the motive in the film doesnt make sense a bosnian music teacher, gets in contact with the a rogue Russian general does seem plausible this was in the yeltsin era (the general is too young he might have been a lt colonel like clooneys character
Would be so delicious if the U.S. DeMedia had helped convince the ‘Tollahs that Fordow was the safest place for the best enriched good stuff, and they busted ass to concentrate it all there, just in time for the B-2s to bury it really deep?!
Recently I read a question about how could we tell when AI was being used (by an industrial player), and the answer was when all their strategies started to work consistently better than their competitors’.
Could it be that the “big breakup” was so Elon could help out in other ways than just finding corruption? Hmmm?!
Wouldn’t the Iranians have some modest portion of the enriched uranium squirrelled away in one or more off-site locations, as an ongoing precaution.
TommyJay:
Enjoyed “The Peacemaker” dialog! I may look that up. Mimi Leder has done some interesting films, “Deep Impact” and “Pay It Forward”.
The Iranians may have squirreled away some 60% enriched uranium. However, its main use is to be enriched to 90%, when it becomes useable for nuclear bombs. However, without centrifuges and many other steps in the process of building a bomb, 60% uranium is useless for weapons. That infrastructure has been destroyed.
60% uranium isn’t even good for dirty bombs. It’s not radioactive enough.
So at the end of the day, what do we have?
90%-enriched mullah goatish!t??
Strange is the Iran of yesterday compared with the Iran of today. Warning Qatar of a missile it just launched to hit Qatar? And then calling it off?
Speaking of enriched goatshite, here we have something really special “a la francais”…
“Macron: Israel’s strike on Evin Prison unrelated to nuclear goals;
“French President Macron criticizes Israel’s strike on Evin Prison as unconnected to nuclear goals and endangering civilians. He urges de-escalation, deems US strikes illegal, but backs nuclear non-proliferation via diplomacy”—
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/410549
Seems he really does enjoy getting bit*h-slapped…
Ceasefire confirmed by many sources.
I don’t think Iran agreed to a ceasefire because of a flesh wound.
Trump , and his team, make so many things looks so easy.
Maybe Trump should give Putin, Zelensky and the Federal Judiciary a 60 day count down like he did the Mullahs; and let them wonder what will happen on day 61.
JD Vance told Bret Baier that the 12 day war would end in 24 hours. No indication of terms. Bold and provocative statement.
Israel is slipping. !967 was known as the six day war.
Love when J.D. appears on TV. He does not let talking heads get him off of his message. It will be fun to watch him debate the Dems best, God willing, in 2028. Newsom has challenged him to debate now; I assume that Newsom is praying, if that isn’t a stretch, that J.D. can’t fit him into his schedule.
The GOP primaries in 2028 are going to be political theater for the ages. I hope that the Three Musketeers; i.e., Vance, Rubio and DeSantis will form a team behind the ultimate winner.
“Israel is slipping…”
Heh, no doubt(!)
Meanwhile, the hysterical (if heartfelt, humane, caring) cry from the rabid, nutso, insane, inane, incontinent Wokesters (whether Left, Right or Center(?)) will be:
WHY CAN’T ISRAEL PICK ON SOMEONE ITS OWN SIZE????!!!!!
JUST A SEC! Hold on to yer hats:
“Missiles launched from Iran, sirens sounded across Israel”—
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/410551
(Ye see, terrorists gotta do what terrorists gotta do…)
File under: But you KNEW this was gonna happen….
Update:
‘Missiles launched from Iran, direct hit reported in Be’er Sheva;
‘IDF identifies missiles launched from Iran. Seven-story building in Be’er Sheva directly hit by missile.”—
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/410551
Related:
“Who Is Funding Iran’s Western Cheerleaders?”
https://blazingcatfur.ca/2025/06/23/who-is-funding-irans-western-cheerleaders/
Intro:
Re: 60% enriched vs. 90% enriched. I hope it is all 60% enriched or less. But how do we know this? The IAEA? I’d feel much better knowing what Israeli intelligence thinks they know. And even those guys botched the Oct. 7 attack.
But you KNEW this was gonna happen….
The ceasefire was 4 AM Tuesday, Tehran time. That was about 3 hours ago.
I forgot which expert pointed out that the enrichment is not geometric but logorithmic, so it means they are much closer to the zero barrier, of course if hadn’t for the Pakistani bomb, which came from two parts Chinese and one part Dutch (URENCO) you thought they only made shoes and chocolates,) well we might look differently on a Iranian nuclear program, under a different regime, but the former spawned the Libyan program among others
the President, is not an idealogue as much as one would wish, hes a pragmatist with a little wishful thinking, but he knows wishing doesn’t make things so, we saw how the victories wrought on horseback in ’01, were undermined by the grubby bureaucrats, like Peter Galbraith or Rory Stewart, to cite two examples by the numerous grifters around Karzai, and by a warlord or two, we won’t revisit the 1,000 and one mistakes around Iraq, a decent regime is what the Iranian people deserve, but there are too many obstacles to allow that to occur,
and the confidence that we have officials that have this goal in mind as well know to deliver it, is lacking rightly so
as for Macron, he really is a character out of an opera buffe, does he not recognize a Bastille when he sees one,
not that the Gaullist like Chiraq, or even Sarkozy are that much better,
Ceasefire?
Ah, you must mean an “Iranian ceasefire”….
(Kinda like a “Hamas ceasefire”, actually…)
‘Iran’s foreign minister says no ceasefire agreement, but will stop missile strikes after Israel does;
‘”Provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards,” Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said.’—
https://justthenews.com/government/diplomacy/iran-says-it-agrees-us-proposed-ceasefire-reports
I suspected it was a Hudna, well bombs away, like Slim Pickens would say,
this is why we can’t have nice things,
well a lot of IRGC commanders will be drawing short straws again
U, U, who’s got the U?
Apparently, Bibi knows.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-israel-very-close-to-reaching-goals-in-iran-will-avoid-war-of-attrition/
Comment on the Instapundit post supports its #3 observation:
https://instapundit.com/727751/
GABroncoFan
“Israel knew where all of the generals and nuclear scientists were but people want me to believe that they didn’t know that Iran supposedly snuck out truckloads of material from those facilities. Those sites have been monitored 24/7/365 for years. Any huge movement of trucks in and out of there would have been thoroughly checked out.”
Thank you for your attention to this matter!
Israel ?!
Israel good job!
Possibly, Trump bet that talking as if there were an iron clad ceasefire would put Iran in the obvious wrong when they couldn’t help themselves and fired at Israel. And when Israel fired back, it wasn’t them “starting it”.
I had an excellent conversation with my supervisor about this. We have a very good working relationship and I was open about my view that Israel *had* to do something and (this part is less clear) the only way Israel could effectively halt Iran’s progress in building a nuclear device was for the United States to lend a helping hand.
And one article I read argued Israel would not have started this if they did not *know* they could take out Fordow. Which means they knew they could count on an assist.
My supervisor pushed back with several good questions. One of which was, do we *know* Iran had a nuclear weapon (perhaps more precisely do we *know* they were close enough to having one that immediate action was necessary)? She especially pointed out Tulsi Gabbard’s earlier statement that Iran did not have (was not close to having?) such a weapon.
Her reasonable questions were along the lines of whether Israel’s actions (more importantly United States involvement) were justified. I think they were. I trust that Israel and Trump did know. I note AesopFan’s comment above. But it’s hard to forget Iraq where what we thought we knew turned out to be an illusion.
Not an unreasonable questions from your supervisor, Rick. But it should be pointed out that Israel cannot afford to guess wrong.
No matter how good the IDF is or how incompetent their enemies, Israel’s basic strategic position is that it is a tiny country surrounded and vastly outnumbered by people who want to do them in.
Sure they have nukes so no problem, right? But the nukes are strictly for last resort deterrence. Do you want Israel using them in Gaza? Or even Iran? A nuke would have been more effective in disabling Fordow than even the largest US bunker buster.
Indeed, anything is possible; but it takes a special sort of person to—at this stage—give Iran the benefit of the doubt….
(To be sure, there are many special sorts of people out there—kind, compassionate, intelligent, benevolent, concerned, caring, humane, etc…)
In any event, I guess the mullahs’ll have to rebuild their special “Destruction of Israel” countdown clock—and perhaps even have to reset it.)
https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-tehran-idf-strikes-irgc-sites-gate-of-evin-prison-destruction-of-israel-clock/amp/
Brendan O’Neill weighs in on this “special sort of person” (though for whatever reason he doesn’t seem to agree with me WRT their “specialness”…).
“The ‘Forever War’ we should really be worried about;
“Iran’s ceaseless and racist war on the Jewish State is the true cause of the mayhem in the Middle East.”—
https://www.spiked-online.com/2025/06/23/the-forever-war-we-should-really-be-worried-about/
H/T Powerline blog.
But it’s hard to forget Iraq where what we thought we knew turned out to be an illusion.
Rick67:
Sez you and a lot of other people. That don’t make it true.
There’s no question Saddam Hussein wanted WMD, developed WMD, even used WMD on his own people. He had built a nuclear plant for bombs at Osirak which the Israelis took out. Chemical weapons were found in Iraq after the war.
Then there’s the question about that large fleet of trucks sent from Iraq to Syria just before the Iraq War began
Meanwhile Hussein was constantly playing cat and mouse with weapons inspectors and breaking the terms of the Gulf War Treaty.
Don’t talk to me about illusions.
One can argue about whether pre-emption was justified and how much WMD Iraq had within some window of time. But those concerns were not illusions and almost all of the Democrat leadership backed Bush at the beginning of the Iraq War.
–Republican National Committee, “Democrats on Iraq”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4m1QB_6gQg
Rick67:
Your supervisor would “know” it only when they detonated it over Israel. Perhaps your supervisor would be willing to wait, but Israel and the US weren’t.
We do know they enriched uranium to 60%. The only reason to do that – the ONLY one – is to make a bomb, which can be done in short order.
Presuming the necessary material was hidden before the strike, weaponizing it will be obvious. At least to Mossad, if not to more conventional inspection.
Ref WMD in Iraq; making chemical weapons is a process interested countries figured out sometime around 1917. How do you make phosgene? Derail a train near East Palestine and light up the leaking tank cars. Raid’s antidote is atropine, same as we would have been issued back in the day if going into nerve gas territory.
Look up the Gulf War Syndrome.
Jordanian police busted a terrorist attack in 2004 which included large quantities of nerve gas. Which came from where?