On Iran and nuclear talks
Iran would dearly love to stall:
Trump rightly would rather Tehran verifiably dropped its nuke quest than act militarily to end the nuke threat, but the regime needs to move a lot faster in offering detailed hard commitments to a full squad of US experts, and not get away with empty symbolic concessions.
I think Trump is well aware of the danger. I’m not sure about Witkoff, but I assume he’s not out there on his own.
Revealed here for the first time, Trump’s position is that Iran’s leaders either destroy their nuclear facilities, or the US, likely with Israel’s help, will do it for them by taking military action.
That’s his offer, and no other options are on the table, the president tells confidants. Certainly there will be no more agreements requiring international inspections that rely on Iranian honesty and compliance.
Nor will there be any tolerance for Iran’s enriching uranium at levels that have no use other than nuclear bombs.
The unicorn fantasy that Iran would use its enriched uranium for domestic energy only is a dead letter to this president.
His approach dramatically heightens the stakes for the talks that began Saturday in Oman.
Time will tell, as usual.
Pres. Trump just a couple of hours ago — “Iran has to get rid of the concept of a nuclear weapon. They cannot have a nuclear weapon… I think they’re tapping us along because they were so used to dealing with stupid people in this country.” (short video at link): https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1911817403622695111
Odds are good that the IDF already has attack plans on the shelf, which they have not shared with the US for obvious reasons.
As a practical matter AesopFan, I don’t believe the IAF’s force structure has the necessary heavy lift and air-refueling capacties to get the job done all alone, though with some caveats to that. Maybe, for instance, the IAF could conduct a campaign of many weeks of bombing that could temporarily cripple Iranian productive capacity, but not, I think, end it altogether — and that at an unacceptable cost to Israeli defense writ large.
The difference between a Democrat and Trump is that the latter fully understands that he can only negotiate a solution that involves the permanent destruction of any potential nuclear capability for Iran. That is the only acceptable outcome.
That outcome is not the question: the question is whether the outcome is achieved violently, or not.
@ sdferr > “I don’t believe the IAF’s force structure has the necessary heavy lift and air-refueling capacties to get the job done all alone, though with some caveats to that.”
Maybe they sold exploding computer drives to the Iranians 😉
Trump has pretty much told Israel to “go for it” and provided an ok for arms that Biden would not.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-18/us-sends-israel-2000-pound-bomb-heavy-weapons/104944950
“US-made MK-84 bombs are capable of ripping through thick concrete and metal, and can instantly kill anyone within their wide blast radius.
The Biden administration stopped sending the 2,000-pound (907 kilogram) bombs to Israel after conceding they were killing civilians in Gaza.
But, soon after being sworn in, US President Donald Trump lifted the export block.”
Those won’t reach the nuclear underground sites, but might give the Iranian forces something to keep them busy.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-to-fast-track-3-billion-arms-sale-to-israel-including-bombs-and-armored-bulldozers/
“Transaction includes D9s withheld last year over concern IDF used them to raze homes in Gaza, as Trump scraps predecessor’s order conditioning aid on commitment to human rights”
Note the date on this one: October 2020 – would already have been done if Biden Inc. had not gotten into the White House.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/bipartisan-house-bill-will-encourage-us-to-sell-bunker-buster-bombs-to-israel/
“Proposal would require DOD to consider transferring long-sought munitions capable of penetrating Iran’s underground nuclear infrastructure, but move faces considerable hurdles”
As I understand things, Israel can degrade Iran’s nuclear facilities but not destroy the ones buried deep and hardened.
To reach those requires the biggest bunkerbuster bombs the US has and stealth B2 bombers to carry them.
As it happens, we have six B2s within striking distance of Iran….
2,000 lb bombs are useful, yet deep penetrating bombs weigh close to 30,000 lbs ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP ) and are really big . . . not the sort of thing one straps to an F-15i, not to mention the fuel consumption needs to carry dozens and dozens on a round trip of near a couple thousand miles. I have suggested heretofore that the US could “rent” the IAF the use of a wing of BUFFs and perhaps a few tankers to go along with ’em, though the IAF would need a few months to get their aircrews up to speed operating and maintaining them, which would have been nice had it been done a year ago! Ha! Time’s a wastin’, however, so let’s hope the USAF gets the go ahead to git’erdone.
I can’t imagine the Iranian leaders acceding to to the US/Israel ultimatum to dismantle their nuclear program and accept anytime/anywhere inspections.
Yet the US and Israel will settle for nothing less and Israel destroyed Iranian air defenses on their last counterattack.
I don’t believe Trump will put up with rope-a-dope tactics from Iran.
I put the odds of an attack over 50%.
The difference between a Democratic and Trump is that the former is an ally of the mullets and the latter is most definitely not.
There. Fixed it.
While it may be the case that, lacking bunker busters, the IAF can’t actually destroy the facility or facilities buried deep underground, they can destroy all forms of ingress. Air vents. Freight elevators. Personnel access. All of those allow for at least some penetration should the ordnance land in the right spot. Whatever the internal defenses, at least one floor down, so to speak, is a gimme. Could be considerably more.
And the IAF could keep coming back as needed.
But the US’ participation would be a signal to the rest of the bad actors that Trump means business in the real sense.
Israel can and perhaps ought attack softer aspects of the IRI, as for instance the ayatollah(s) and mullahs themselves, their IRGC, its military bases, depots, etc., as well as the soft economic infrastructure, without which the regime will find its continuation very difficult indeed, should it survive initial direct attack that is. And hey, all power to Israel should that be the route they feel forced to choose. Somehow though, since this path has long already been an option, I don’t think it’s Israel’s first strategic choice.
Isn’t this one of those endless wars Tulsi and the always Trumpers are always complaining about?
@ jvermeer > “Isn’t this one of those endless wars Tulsi and the always Trumpers are always complaining about?”
Iran has been at war with the US and Israel since Carter’s time, and has not made a secret of it. That the Democrats, and many Republicans, have refused to acknowledge that fact does not change its existence.
Trump is enabling Israel to end the war.
Our weapons are accurate enough to hit the same spot over and over again. That has already been demonstrated in Lebanon. Iran must be made to give up both nukes and ballistic missiles. They have supplied the latter to terrorists so no more production of those either.
I have reservations about witkoffs negotiation skills because he has shown himself to be very naive about hamas qatar their sponsor etc
Try this – think like an Ayatollah. What’s your next move?
1) Destroy the nuke program yourselves – play nice – and stay in power.
2) Risk the US and Israel destroy your nukes kinetically and that’s it or…..
3) Risk the US and Israel destroy your all your military capabilities first and then destroy the nukes.
This engenders an uprising by the people in Iran, plus all the subjugated minorities you have murdered the last 46 years. They outnumber you 2 to 1.This uprising won’t stop until you and Allah meet and no 72 virgins. You will be amazed how quickly it turns against you. All your proxy armies have already been or are about to be crushed – Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Assad regime and Hamas – it’s so over for you – so time to play chess or perhaps play poker and call Trump’s bluff – I wouldn’t do that if I were you.
Your move, Khamenei, IRGC, the Basaj and the rest of the Shia Muslim crooks who have enriched themselves at the people’s expense.
My advice is to go to Switzerland- take you $billions you have hidden away there and retire on Lake Como.
I don’t think you are that smart.
Is the ayatollah who was reportedly soviet trained really the power player or the irgc which has supplanted the mullahs in the structure of the islamic republic as well as the bazaaris at home and abroad
One does wonder if they have the equivalent of an obshak a treasury
jvermeer:
Gee, I missed the part where we sent troops to Iran.
The only endless war we’ve had with Iran is the one they have waged – where their leaders have been shrieking “Death to America!” for 45 years and supporting terrorist attacks against us.
In addition, Obama and Biden were rather friendly to Iran.
Lastly, preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons would fall under the heading of war prevention.
Neo, I’m somewhat startled by the tone of your reply. Wasn’t it obvious my post was a barb sent at the blame America first crowd, one of whom was Tulsi Gabbard? You didn’t tell me anything that wasn’t implied by my original post.
Speaking of which, I once thought David Stockman had something to offer.
Till I read this…
“David Stockman On Why The Houthis Aren’t America’s Problem”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/david-stockman-why-houthis-arent-americas-problem
The man’s a loon….
+ Bonus
Field day for the haters, deceivers, slanderers and Righteously Indignant(TM):
(Any mention that Hamas was using that hospital for, let’s call it “non-medical purposes”?)
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/palm-sunday-israel-bombs-only-christian-hospital-gaza
Holy War is one of the 5 mandated requirements of Islam.
Iran is an Islamic theocracy.
In Tehran, there is a government-run countdown clock on public display that is tracking the hours until the destruction of Israel by 2040. (Not a joke. Look it up.)
Such a thing surely is unprecedented in the history of World Affairs — and yet, Iran is a perfectly acceptable member of U.N., and people condemn the Israelis.
Today’s most dangerous “FOREVER WAR” originates in Tehran. Whether we like it or not.
Israel TV7, “Deep Dive” show, 28 mins on the current Iran-US-Israeli dance: https://youtu.be/4CHavZJg37I
“The unicorn fantasy that Iran would use its enriched uranium for domestic energy only……….”
This “fantasy” was reality for Antony Blinken, Susan Rice, Obama,the “Cackler,” et.al.
Perhaps it was even reality for joke Bidet, but then again, there is no way to tell if he was aware of anything at all, so he at least has a good excuse if he did think paying off Iran would alter their behaviour.
Just goes to show yet again, that someone’s level of education and academic achievement have zero correlation with one’s ability to actually think and analyze.
Well blinken was malleys sock puppet, obama was valerie bowmans no one takes responsibility for kamala
Under eisenhowers nukes for peace many countries including iran had nuclear technology although it was the french and german who built the main reactors in the era of the shah
Paul erdman noticed this in the crash of 79,
The dutch of all people through urenco were the ones that aq khan used to transfer aspects of his nuclear program which he spread to libya and other places
John, they didn’t truly believe it. Not a jot.
They were—-“merely”—on board.
(Well, not really: they were actually facilitating it….)
And, well, if the Iranians actually DID develop the bomb…why then…”Biden” would be, rather conveniently, a VICTIM of the “Those dirty scoundrels lied to me right to my face, the nerve of them” variety.
Perfecto!!
And certainly, “for peaceful purposes”—I wouldn’t exactly call it “domestic purposes”—is THE perfect rationale! (That is, it sure SOUNDS good!! Kinda like Hamas’s hospitals and schools…and ambulances and food and electricity supplies…and cease-fire…and peace! Or…like “Biden”‘s “Build Back Better!!!!”…and “The border is SECURE!”, and “There is NO inflation!!… for starters….)
The only real power the mullahs have depends on their potential to create a deliverable nuclear weapon, thus, however much they may string us along, they will never willingly give up that ability, it will have to be taken from them.
jvermeer:
Tone – especially sarcasm – is notoriously difficult to get right online. I apparently didn’t read yours correctly.
@ jvermeer – the /sarc tag is your friend.