Home » Open thread 8/9/24

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Open thread 8/9/24 — 71 Comments

  1. There’s currently a legal battle going on in Arizona over the instatement of a couple laws that would require registrants to provide “satisfactory” proof of citizenship or residency to be eligible to vote. These were laws that were evidently passed by the state legislature in 2022, then “partially” blocked via injunction by a district judge in 2023 (over a claim that Federal laws take precedence over state laws about proof of citizenship) that was then later stayed by the 9th circut and then the law was “partially” reinstated but then… it’s confusing. It’s a long convoluted battle between leftists judges and the sane.

  2. Stolen Valor: The Many Lies of Tim Walz – ‘The Kamala Campaign has a problem.’ by Techno Fog:

    snip .. Stolen valor isn’t the end of it. The man who lied about his service also left his battalion out to dry.

    snip .. What’s next for Walz? We spelled out some of the known issues with the Minnesota Governor after he was announced: gender transitions for children, letting Minneapolis burn during the 2020 riots, his desire to make Minnesota a sanctuary state. But there might be more. We’ll leave you with this from Cernovich: “There’s way worse.”

    Techno Fog has a long one this time…

  3. Dropped like a rock @ 270ToWin overnight. He was @ 251 or 252 Electoral Votes yesterday – now at 235 vs Harris still @ 226. Georgia is now a Toss-up after he ran his mouth about Georgia and whoever Gov is.

  4. It might be worth cultivating some emotional discipline, instead of riding the roller coaster every time there’s dramatic news, and keeping that up all the way until November.

    Now that the media is 100% behind Harris, and retailing fabrications about her team and Trump’s, why are we still believing in the media’s polls? The polls probably showed Trump ahead so they could push out Biden. They’ve served that purpose, and now they need to serve a new purpose.

    But even if not actually dishonest the polls go up and down based on whatever nonsense is going on, and the results are cherry picked for today’s narrative.

    Nothing at 270towin is fundamentally different from what it was three weeks ago. If Harris gets WI, PA, MI she wins. If she misses one, she doesn’t. Still true. Those places are governed by Dems and are going to do what it takes to put her ahead even if the counting takes weeks. Still true.

  5. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    It might be worth cultivating some emotional discipline

    That’s AKA sticking one’s ‘Head in the Sand‘.

  6. I usually try not to criticize a fellow commenter’s posting style, but I have to say that I find it a little hard to talk a commenter seriously who uses more emoji’s than a teenage girl who’s excited for an upcoming Taylor Swift concert.

  7. Don’t know why Karmi cares so much about the presidential race given his announced refusal to vote for either candidate.

  8. Kate – have said I hope that Trump wins over Harris. Anyway, I feel I am ‘Fair and Balanced‘ most of the time…example of that is right here w/ the Walz Stolen Valor comment and then the 270ToWin comment.

  9. Sure it is and you believe the easter bunny too right

    Of course desantis and haley wanted to push harder on a shorter waiting period

    Kemp could fire fani willis for her gross negligence but he doesnt

  10. Karmi– “emotional discipline” and “sticking your head in the sand” are in no way analogous.

    Unfortunately, every bit of news (with a few exceptions) is given with an agenda. It’s why it’s called “advocacy journalism”. It’s no longer relaying facts, but relaying narrative– often with no underlying facts.

    The numbers you cited are using Cook, cnanalysis, US News. I like the Consensus Map which is 226 to 251, or even better, Elections Daily, which has it 226-268.

    Here you are. Take your pick.

    https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-forecast-predictions/

  11. Well, since Karmi is in Florida, his refusal to vote for Trump won’t make any difference in the election, a luxury voters in swing states don’t have.

  12. Totally OT: I keep seeing more videos about the attempted assassination of Trump, and more stories about police seeing the shooter but unable to communicate to the Secret Service!

    Nothing communicates to the Secret Service like a gunshot! All any LEO had to do was fire off several shots blindly into the air, and Trump would have been swarmed by SS bodies and whisked away!

    Am I missing something here?!

  13. There were thousands of people there, Ray Van Dune. Shots fired in the air come down somewhere. Every New Year’s Eve someone is killed by celebratory shots fired in the air.

  14. Don’t know why Karmi cares so much

    It is nothing personal, Karmi is a standard issue troll. There could be hundreds working off a script, or just one. It doesn’t matter, you cannot tell the difference.

  15. Call it malign neglect or deliberate action, but the accumulating evidence that’s piling up makes it seem more and more likely that the Biden Administration, in the form of the Secret Service, set things up so that an assassination attempt would have a greater than usual chance of success.

  16. Brian E – check your maps again. I used the Consensus one and it still shows 235 to 226. Georgia was moved from Lean REP to Toss-Up.

  17. Kate – hopefully you are right, but w/ Dade county (Miami) moving away from Trump Florida may end up Toss-Up.

    Trump may also be losing NPA vote…

  18. Karmi, my point is it’s way to early to take too much stock in the polls. Pick a different one. And consensus doesn’t mean more reliable.

  19. Brian E – OK, fine. However, I’m not suddenly going to stick my head in the sand just because Polls show Harris ahead. This blog has talked polls since I first came here, and now suddenly commenters here are mad at me for posting a poll. Weird, huh… 😉

  20. P.S.–So it’s either they thought, hey, it’s only that bastard Trump, so we’ll short him on his security detail, and the agents we do send him will largely be from the second or third string team–in many cases not even actual trained SS agents, but “substitutes” from DHS–including the female “fumblette” team.

    Or, it was something much more hands on, directed, full of purpose, and sinister.

  21. Re: Secret Service vs Donald Trump

    Snow on Pine:

    I can certainly go with malign neglect.

    However, after the DHS / US Marshals vs Tulsi Gabbard affair, I can also go with petty vindictiveness.

    I feel … a Law Comin’ Upon Me.

    Yeeessss…
    __________________________________

    huxley’s Law — Never ascribe to malign neglect that which can be explained by petty vindictiveness.
    __________________________________

    My work here is finished.

  22. @Ray+V+D: That would have worked. However, since 2020 the police have been hamstrung by the Left to not engage in proactive enforcement behavior. That includes even chasing observed violators of law. On top of that, to “fire into the air” would most likely be a violation of policy (a warning shot) prohibiting that. This would expose that officer to an administrative “grinder” that could ruin his future. Since 1971 (my entry to the business) any discharge of a firearm drew great attention and triggered (pun?, perhaps) great efforts at report writing and photo taking to minimize any liability (real and/or imagined) and perhaps discipline of the officer involved. Ever since Rodney King, and then Ferguson, MO, the destruction of the police has been progressing… until, here we are.

    My question along that line was, at first, why didn’t the officer who saw the shooter, take a shot AT the guy. That action would have been much easier to defend. But I don’t know the firearm policy in Butler, PA…. and I don’t know what kind of ground rules the USSS (“we are the professionals, listen to us”) put down for the locals for this event.

    Aside from all, I would defend that officer with my opening line… The efforts of the Left to defang the police worked here, almost to a successful result.

  23. I think our hostess knows I am NOT a troll. Yes I said “blindly into the air” without thinking it through, but I would rather take a million to one chance with that bullet than do nothing to stop someone that killed one and could easily have killed more!

    My point was – communicate ANY way, don’t just curse the radios!!

  24. Too much soccer. Where is Larry Bird’s shot from behind the backboard? Or his last-second steal/assist of an inbounds pass to win a playoff game?

  25. Too many people watching the reckless handling of firearms in Westerns. I like John Wayne, but his character had horrible muzzle awareness.

  26. Ray+Van+Dune

    “Nothing communicates to the Secret Service like a gunshot! All any LEO had to do was fire off several shots blindly into the air, and Trump would have been swarmed by SS bodies and whisked away!

    Am I missing something here?!”

    Yes, I believe you are. The counter snipers would have turned to the shots fired not the guy on the roof. I wouldn’t have wanted to be the one in their sights. The site agent’s poor planning, coordination and deficient communication allowed this to happen. Warning shots would not have stopped it.

  27. Or [Bird’s] last-second steal/assist of an inbounds pass to win a playoff game?

    FOAF:

    Exactly.

    Maybe it was a bit too inside basketball, but that’s still an all-time WTF moment in sports.

    The Celtics are down by a point in a playoff game. All the Chicago Pistons have to do is inbound the ball and let the last few seconds run out on the clock.

    The cocky Piston, Isiah Thomas, is so confident that he does the inbound — he never does the inbound — to sew up their sweet win over the Celtics.

    But then, out of nowhere, Larry Bird does what he does. IOW. The impossible.

    He makes the steal, then, barely tip-toeing from going out of bounds, he slashes the ball to Dennis “DJ’ Johnson, who pulls off the split-second shot to win the game.

    Bird made the steal. DJ made the shot. But that could only happen given the telepathic relationship Bird and DJ had. When you watch the video, you’ve got to notice how DJ just knew what Bird was doing and where he, DJ, had to be.

    Unbelievable. Or rather. Impossible.
    _______________________________________

    –“Now there’s a steal by Bird underneath to DJ” (1987)
    https://youtu.be/jwKRVYeYi8Q?t=51

    They had Game 5 won. No question about it.
    They forgot about Larry Bird. That’s all.

    –Danny Ainge (Celtics guard)
    https://youtu.be/LYKdI_Xm9es?t=97

  28. I did not really follow basketball in the 80s, I was living in San Francisco and consumed with the overnight transformation of the 49ers from laughingstock to dynasty. But I see a lot of Larry Bird highlight vids on YT now and they are amazing. Lots of funny stuff about his trash talking but his shots, behind-the-back passes, deflection assists etc are just astonishing. Some with <5s left in the game, Celtics tied or behind, where he *tells* the defender "I'm going to shoot it over you from here" and then proceeds to do exactly that.

    PS hux – Detroit Pistons, not Chicago.

  29. Huxley, I was at that game in the old Boston Garden, way up at the top. It must have been in the high 90s up there and over 100 on the court. My wife was trying to say something to me but the noise level was so high I couldn’t hear her. Then Bird stole the ball … it was absolute mayhem. I think Johnny Most had to have vocal cord transplant surgery after the game.

  30. RE: The riots and situation in the UK

    It appears that a lot of native British may have finally realized that it is now inevitable that—due to the policies and actions of successive British governments—they will be displaced, and become a minority in what used to be their own ancient country.

    It must be heart breaking to have to pull up roots, and to leave the country that your ancestors might have lived in for perhaps thousands of years, but it seems that such a diaspora is now inevitable.

    I would imagine that we should anticipate receiving at lot of the more canny immigrants from the UK in the near future.

  31. Re: Janis Joplin

    Following up on the contretemps avec mon frère Rufus WRT Janis Joplin, I’ve been listening to Bessie Smith, who was called “Empress of the Blues” in her day and rightly so.

    BTW, Janis paid for Bessie’s headstone.

    Smith was Joplin’s blues godmother. No question. It’s like Chuck Berry was Keith Richard’s rock godfather, though closer in age.

    You can hear the pain and dissonance in Bessie’s voice. Janis just kicked them up a notch or wo. Though Janis never went as “blue” as Bessie.

    –Bessie Smith, “Gimme a Pigfoot & a Bottle Of Beer”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlyyJAx2-Bk

  32. @Snow on Pine:they will be displaced, and become a minority in what used to be their own ancient country.

    White people can never, ever count as indigenous. They have no right to consider any territory as their particular homeland, regardless of history. Like every other standard promulgated by the Left, there is a double-standard that conceals a secret single standard.

  33. White people can never, ever count as indigenous. They have no right to consider any territory as their particular homeland, regardless of history.

    Niketas Choniates:

    I understand what you are saying.

    It’s long seemed to me that if we are going to celebrate blackness, hispanicness, gayness, etc. eventually whites are going to do the math that whites can celebrate whiteness.

    Whites may soon no longer be the majority, but they are going to be the plurality.

    I think we are approaching that insight. Not that I want to see white identity politics, but if everyone else is going to play that game…

    The game could change.

  34. White people can never, ever count as indigenous. They have no right to consider any territory as their particular homeland, regardless of history.

    Currently reading Michener’s The Covenant, which like nearly all of Michener’s books covers broad swaths of history of his subject – in this case, South Africa. Let’s just say the statement above comes into play.

  35. What Democrats here are doing is tribalizing public life. They may not like the results. And now in the UK the British population is realizing it’s being pushed into subservience, and it’s not going well.

    King Charles III Just put his foot directly in his mouth by saying he’s encouraged by the government response. Is he also encouraged by Muslim mobs with knives and sticks roaming the streets to counter protesters? Only one kind of “hate” draws his condemnation.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13728937/King-Charles-tells-Prime-Minister-Keir-Starmer-encouraged-way-Britains-compassionate-community-spirit-countered-aggression-criminality-racist-thugs-rioted-Southport-stabbings.html

  36. Perhaps I’m not getting it, but are y’all arguing that someone who is the descendant/the end product of all of the various groups of white invaders who invaded and then permanently settled in Britain, and intermarried with whoever the “original ” natives of the UK were–the Germanic tribesmen, the Angles, the Jutes, the Vikings, and their descendants the Normans, etc., etc.

    People whose families may have been in residence somewhere in Britain for many hundreds, or even thousands of years, are not entitled to call and regard themselves as being a “native,” and the rightful owner of their plot of land?

    Are you arguing that since, world-wide, groups of people have been invading and taking over the territories of other groups of people–and this from time immemorial– this fact somehow makes it illegitimate for any group of invaders who have arrived and permanently settled at a location, say, hundreds or even thousands of years ago, to actually be able to claim, and genuinely feel themselves to be–after the passage of a certain amount of time, say, a couple of generations–natives of that location?

  37. OT and all that…

    Just learned that the iconic horizontally striped French shirt started with the French Navy — each stripe symbolized one of Napoleon’s victories — but it was Coco Chanel who popularized it as high fashion, then Pablo Picasso and Jean-Paul Sartre began wearing the shirts.

    Voila! Throw in a beret and a baguette and you’re French!

  38. @Snow on Pine:Are you arguing that since groups of people have been invading and taking over the territories of other groups of people, from time immemorial, that somehow makes it illegitimate for any group of invaders who have arrived and permanently settled at a location, say, hundreds or even thousands of years ago, to actually be able to claim–after the passage of a certain amount of time, say, a generation or two–to be natives of that location?

    Not sure if I’m one of the people you are talking about. My comment was an accurate description of how the Left sees it, and how the Left sees it is how the British government sees it. To them, white people can never be indigenous, no matter what the history is.

    In terms of what the history actually is, in all the world I can only think of a few groups of people who could plausibly make the claim that their ancestors have indeed entirely been on one patch of land for over 10,000 years which was not taken from someone else. These people are found in the Andaman Islands and Australasia. They are hard to get to and don’t have anything worth the trouble of taking from them and so escaped nearly all of the waves of expansion and migration in human history. Just about everybody else originally came from somewhere else and pushed out or supplanted the people already there.

    You could draw a line at 1492 for convenience, but then you’d be including English, Irish, Scots and Welsh and excluding some Native Americans, Asians, and Africans. The standard is going to be whatever the Left needs it to be for whatever game it is they are playing. They will find a way to exclude white people no matter what historical standard you propose.

  39. I have an Irish friend who claims his family goes back to the Bronze Age in their patch of Ireland.

  40. So the Ukrainian invasion of Russia continues. The Ukrainians have broken through both Russian defensive lines and are only facing poorly-trained conscripts now. The Ukrainians are holding territory 20 miles and striking convoys 30 or 40 miles beyond the border. Railways have been hit, and the Kursk nuclear powerplant is reportedly offline.

    The Ukrainians have captured more Russian territory in three days than the Russian northern offensive in Kharkiv did in three months.

    I don’t know where this is going, but it’s wreaking havoc on Russian logistics. That alone is probably worth the price of admission for the Ukrainians. Stay tuned. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

  41. well where did they come from, if it was northern ireland one would say from England,

    the ear king, has been an Arabist for a long time, his family’s foundation has taken money from bin laden and a cadet branch of the bin mahfouz clan, I think it’s time they bring over an errant prince from Hanover, this dynasty is done, Alternately is a Cromwell available,

  42. @huxley:I have an Irish friend who claims his family goes back to the Bronze Age in their patch of Ireland.

    He’s probably right (only Jewish families are of comparable age) but where were they before the Bronze Age? You can find hints in the Irish mythological cycle The Book of Invasions.

    I don’t know how much history any of that can be linked to, but in that mythology the Irish are sixth in the succession of conquerors of Ireland. The indigenous people retreated to islands or literally underground.

  43. @miguel:if it was northern ireland one would say from England

    Or Scots, but it’s not as if there are no Irish in Northern Island. But Scots themselves descend from Saxons and Danes (in the Lowlands) or Irish (in the Highlands); the Picts and Hen Ogledd are long gone. The Scots planted in Ulster were mostly Lowland Presbyterians. The word Scoti originally referred to all Gaels regardless of which island they were found in.

  44. Putin declares State of Emergency – bet he choked on those words. Russia has been stealing Ukrainian land to squat on since 2014, and dares to call the Ukrainian ‘Invasion’ of Russia a ‘Provocation’!?!

    700 bombs destroyed in Ukrainian strike against Russia’s Lipetsk airbase

    Hopefully the Ukrainians remember how easily Prigozhin and some of his Wagner army reached within 125 miles of Moscow – before suddenly turning back.

    Not sure how many miles of Ukraine/Russia border there are from Kursk Oblast to Pskov Oblast, but Google shows about 550 miles. About 540 miles from Kyiv to Moscow.

    “In 24 hours we got to within 200 km of Moscow. In this time we did not spill a single drop of our fighters’ blood,” Prigozhin…

    In over 2++ years – Russia has been unable to make the moves Ukraine is making right now. Try some serious fakes towards Moscow – giving some of those elite Moscow Russian some dreams about a Ukrainian soldier standing over their bed whilst they sleep…

  45. No one paying attention to politics here will be surprised to see this — but finally, what’s suspected is now True: the DNC conspired with Big Media to hide knowledge of candidate Biden’s cognitive decline.

    Zoom videos obtained by the Daily Caller prove it. https://dailycaller.com/2024/08/08/video-biden-harris-staffers-reveal-manipulated-disinformation-hide-mental-decline-voters-rob-flaherty-rebecca-rinkevich-timothy-durigan-joe-biden-kamala-harris-democratic-national-committee/

    Can exposure of Obama’s unconstitutional Third Term be far behind?

  46. My friend’s family is from County Cavan, which is on the northern border of Ireland proper, but not Northern Ireland.

    By surname, I’m likely from County Armagh, in Northern Ireland. My grandfather was an orphan so I don’t know for sure. The records are now open so I may try to figure it out.

    Further back, I have no idea.

  47. @Karmi:Russia has been stealing Ukrainian land to squat on since 2014

    Since 1667, actually… or 1657 depending on which historian you follow…

  48. Re: AI update

    AI has stalled out for now. Thank god!

    It’s not exactly mysterious and it’s not the tech. Turns out the exponential advances we’ve been seeing require exponential advances in power, money and water (for cooling).

    We’re hitting those limits.

    It will be sorted and it will kill the Green New Deal madness. But AI will grow more slowly.

    That’s a good thing.

  49. There’s a lot of water here just now. Several roads, including a nice little chunk of NY-20, have been cut by a few feet of floodwater. Somebody has even gone so far as to tag that piece of 20 in front of the local mall as ‘Lake Stuyvesant,’ which is quite amusing unless you’re in it, I guess.

    I went to my class a few miles away and when I came out, I found both ends of the parking lot had turned into little ponds and a couple of the outlet roads had acquired a foot or two of water in about an hour. I seem to have bent my car’s thermal shield somewhat while getting out of there.

  50. Niketas Choniates

    @Karmi:Russia has been stealing Ukrainian land to squat on since 2014

    Since 1667, actually… or 1657 depending on which historian you follow…

    Fuking Russians – thanks for the update and info Niketas Choniates!!!!!!!

    Oh, don’t normally watch videos over a minute or two, but sdferr on August 9, 2024 at 6:48 pm linked to a great one: Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion: What We Know So Far

  51. Goddamned Chicoms. Spread disease across the earth, then trash low earth orbit all to hell.

  52. Trump may also be losing NPA vote…

    Oh, no! If he’s lost the National Phlebotomy Association, it’s all over.

  53. “Met [ie, London] Police Commissioner Mark Rowley threatens to EXTRADITE and imprison American citizens over online posts” criticising the situation about protests and immigration in the UK.

    Including Elon Musk, apparently.

    The good Aparachik is apparently ignorant of either the fact of American independence or that the US Supreme Court has ruled hate speech, free speech, protected by the First Amendment to the Constitution.

    And therefore such a prosecution is contingent on shared laws — we don’t and therefore won’t.
    https://twitchy.com/amy-curtis/2024/08/09/watch-british-police-say-they-will-extradite-and-jail-americans-over-social-media-posts-n2399441

    Re nonepod on the Arizona voting restrictions laws (SEE TOP).

    EXACTLY. I see no way, barring an emergency successful Supremes Appeal that this will be sorted out to prevent Democrat ballot stuffing this election. It’s wild.

  54. MAGA bof wrote:

    Oh, no! If he’s lost the National Phlebotomy Association, it’s all over.

    Florida Voter Registration By Party Affiliation:

    Year 2024:
    Republican 5,257,407
    Democratic 4,300,964
    Minor Parties 365,009
    No Party Affiliation 3,507,230

    Total
    13,430,610

    NPA – No Party Affiliation gets laughed at by MAGA voters – ‘Trump don’t need no stinking NPA voters!

  55. I know, MAGA voters don’t want to hear about negative Trump polls. How do I know this? No complaints about my link to the Polymarket prediction market platform that allows Betting with cryptocurrency (digital currency AKA money)—some weeks ago (2-3). Seems that Trump was at 58% and Harris at 42%, but ain’t positive tho am close. Bettors liked Trump to win back then.

    This isn’t a poll of voters, it’s apparently Bettors going with the odds or the odds as they see them. Am not a gambler, but assume gamblers don’t bet in order to lose their money.

    Presidential Election Winner 2024 is now showing Kamala Harris w/ a 50% chance to win and Trump w/ a 47% chance.

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