Loved both those songs when I was a kid. Four Tops had a hit with a remake of Walk Away Renee but I prefer the original.
A commenter brought up “soul” in the Open thread 4/4/24 post yesterday—so having used Neo’s The New Neo blog recently as my personal ‘Muse’ I wanted to carry that a tad further.
Throughout history many humans seem to recognize ‘Something’ non-physical within them that has been referred to as: Soul – Spirit – Spark – Light – Divine Light – Self, and etcetera. We humans have difficulty understanding the physical world—the physical Universe, so the non-physical is…is…
Many great Ancient Civilizations have existed, and many of those had a written history. Most all seemed to have had a God or Gods, and even Goddesses (during a time when most women were basically Chattel). Egypt may have been first with just one-God: Aten, the god of Atenism; Yhw & Yahweh were mentioned throughout non-biblical writings, and by the 14th century BC “groups of Edomites and Midianites worshiped Yahweh as their God.” Sumer had a bunch: An, Enki, Enlil, goddess Inanna, etc. Different religions have god/s & goddesses that can be traced back to some of those from ancient Sumer, Egypt, and India’s Dharmic religions or Indic religions. Greeks & Romans seemed to have believed that when it came to gods & goddesses — the more the merrier!
To continue the thought of keeping the physical & non-physical ‘Thangs simple, I’ll quote from those better at expressing themselves thru written words:
Non-simple – Essays in Zen Buddhism by D. T. Suzuki:
Well, that’s just Too difficult to even quote…
Sorta-simple – The Seven Spiritual Laws of Success by Deepak Chopra:
.. each of us is here to discover our true Self, to find out on our own that our true Self is spiritual, that essentially we are spiritual beings that have taken manifestation in physical form. We’re not human beings that have occasional spiritual experiences — it’s the other way around: we’re spiritual beings that have occasional human experiences … We must find out for ourself that inside us is a god or goddess in embryo that wants to be born so that we can express our divinity.
Simple – Like Two Golden Birds from The Mundaka Upanishad:
Like two golden birds perched on the selfsame tree,
intimate friends, the ego and the Self dwell in the same body.
The former eats the sweet and sour fruits of the tree of life,
while the latter looks on in detachment.
Other Orpheus hits: “Can’t Find the Time”, “Brown Arms in Houston”, “I’ve Never Seen Love Like This”. The band also performed the theme song for the movie “Marlowe” (1969), starring James Garner. Lead singer Bruce Arnold died in 2022:
When I remember growing up in the 1960s, I remember listening to Orpheus. It resembled The Association in its musicianship and vocal harmonies.
Throughout history many humans seem to recognize ‘Something’ non-physical within them that has been referred to as: Soul – Spirit – Spark – Light – Divine Light – Self, and etcetera.
That covers quite a bit of terrain, and not all of those features are alike, as you recognize.
My reference to the soul, or rather to the self-admittedly soulless hedonic nihilists of the social left relied on a much narrower and Christian rooted notion of the soul as the presumably eternally enduring nonmaterial personality of the individual which survives physical death: a presumable state of affairs which rather significantly ups the stakes in terms of the long term consequences of worldly interpersonal relations.
Just what exactly members of previous cultures meant by the term soul insofar as they had any clear and distinct notion of it, varied from a vague anima, or share in some imagined life force, to outright disembodied persons.
Modern progressives, if they believe in something they would label with the term “soul” seem in general terms to be referring to something figurative, a stand-in for an ostensible they-know-not-what, rather than the definition that might have been found in the Catholic Baltimore Catechism.
Instead, the average materialist in a “spiritual frame of mind” or mood, would probably affirm some version of affairs along the lines found in this supernaturalistic tale from the 1950’s concerning a Catholuc nun who receives a letter from a deceased friend, who died years earlier and now dwells in Hell.
“I had arranged a religion for myself. The general opinion in the office, that after death souls would return to this world in other beings and would pass through yet other beings in an endless succession, pleased me. With this, I banished the distressing problem of the hereafter to the point that it no longer troubled me. …
Bit by bit I found a god, one privileged enough to be called a god, and distant enough that I didn’t have to deal with him. I was even confused enough to make of myself, at will and without changing my religion, a pantheistic god or even a proud deity.
This “god” had neither a heaven to console me nor a hell to frighten me. I left him in peace. This is what my adoration of him consisted of.
One easily believes in what one loves …”
Of course the more rigorous progressive thinkers will affirm that naturalism allows not even for that, and that all such thinking is as Freud said, the self-consolation of life’s losers.
Now some people are comfortable discussing these matters as they apply to our current interpersonal moral rules, and working out the implications of the various assumptions, whereas others, not equipped to deal with it, sputter in sarcastic indignation, and vigilantly try to police others.
Why, they find the very idea of entertaining these implications of soulless humans as offensive as … bugs that think!
I remember that song and loved it too. I’m sure at the time I was too young and inexperienced with music to appreciate how masterful the vocals were. But I do now.
Fil mentions it, but I always like singers who not only have a nice vibrato, but also really control it precisely. There are some successful singers who have a fairly constant and incessant vibrato, and often when singing a rapid sequence of shorter notes, it all becomes a bit of a mess.
______
As to uncomfortable chord structures or progressions: One of my favorite local musicians is keyboard player Jon Dryden. I’ve referred to his perverted chord styles as “demented.” You can just imagine a somewhat insane phantom of the opera playing his songs. I think Jon teaches music at San Jose State or similar school.
This song is fun. He takes his style to an extreme perhaps. I’m probably one of the few people who enjoy this. (250 youtube views. Ha!)
To minimize losses and preserve its existence, the underdog should withdraw to defensible positions and negotiate. It’s just that simple.
Karmi – If we send Ukraine weapons that can reach the Urals it would result in American and Western European weapons being used to kill Russians and destroy infrastructure inside of Russia. How do you think that Russia would respond?
Maybe we can thread the needle and cause Russia just enough pain to prompt them to back off against Ukraine, but not enough pain that direct war with NATO begins to look like their least bad option. Maybe not. The current generation of Americans is not particularly good at seeing the world through the eyes of their adversaries.
I don’t see Ukraine hawks acknowedging what a delicate balance we’re trying to strike here, or providing a clear plan for how we can achieve Ukranian victory. My fear is that we already played our best card with the economic sanctions and, now they they have failed to have any apprciable effect on Russia’s war effort, we’re out of good options.
Bauxite:
How do you think that Russia would respond?
I wouldn’t care how they responded – hopefully they would stand up and fight instead of rolling over. Russia needs to be told to get out of all the Ukraine, or NATO will increase the aid to include weapons that will force all Russians east of the Urals. NATO would also provide full air support to Ukraine.
NATO & Europe needs a buffer zone between them and the Russians—a buffer zone of all European Russia to the Urals would be perfect…
Karmi: “I wouldn’t care how they responded”. You should.
“…[H]opefully they would stand up and fight instead of rolling over”. Fight NATO? Which basically means, fight the United States?
If I understand you correctly, you are saying that we–NATO and the U.S.–should get directly involved in a war with Russia. A war that would very likely turn into a boots-on-the-ground land war with Russia in Ukraine and in Russia proper.
Out of curiosity: How do you think such a war would turn out? Commenter MKent is on record on this forum saying that the U.S. Army and Air Force would make short work of the Russian armed forces. Is that what you believe?
Given how deep electoral fraud is entrenched here in the states, an intervention from above might be our only hope.
I hadn’t heard this song since I was a child. I had forgotten it even existed. In the first few measures of the song I remembered it and how much I had loved it when I was 12 years old. How is it we can forget something so beautiful? It is an otherworldly, enchanting song. Thanks for bringing it back to me.
Hubert: So you’re fine with decades of the US cowering before Russia — Only sending the support to Ukraine that Russia *ALLOWS* the US to send — threats to start a nuclear war against us?
We are part of NATO – and NATO should tell Russia to get out of the Ukraine (that included Crimea) or we will provide better weapons to Ukraine, and provide them with full air support. If they want war then all they have to do is stay in the Ukraine.
This is a rare opportunity to break Russia from bullying Europe & others…
Concerned Citizen worries about Russia and Ukraine now. Is Concerned Citizen now going to say Ukraine shouldn’t continue attacking Russian oil refineries? Wouldn’t be prudent?
Vlad has been setting the narrative as to what isn’t acceptable in the level of resistance to his aggression and some keep getting played by him. Any more sound bites “boots on the ground,” “NATO expansion,” “NATO is obsolete?”
The USSR is well and truly gone, the cancer on humanity that it was, but Russian imperial aggression goes on and on, ignored by Vlad’s fanboys.
Banned Lizard: Unfortunately, the US could do with a good pruning, but sometimes one needs to call in a strike on their own position. Fuk Russia and the Russians!
Clay:
You’re welcome! The song is indeed unusual as well as beautiful, but was never as popular as the group’s bigger hit, “Walk Away Renee.” The latter also had a hook that won’t quit.
Karmi:
I appreciate your exuberance. You are bang on with the “pruning” idea, and blowing raspberries at our potential savior. He doesn’t seem very excitable, however, so I doubt he can be provoked into doing us the favor. The fraud regime we suffer under is likely the worst possible punishment of all.
California Dreamin’ is on my list of 25 all-time favorites.
To further demonstrate Europe’s resolve and ability, NATO Europe is considering taking over all of the mechanisms for providing military support to Ukraine.
The U.S. and other Western countries are considering transferring to NATO a U.S.-led multinational group that coordinates the shipment of weapons to Ukraine, one of several new proposals that could help maintain the flow of arms to Kyiv under a second Donald Trump presidency.
“During the NATO foreign ministerial meeting in Brussels Wednesday and Thursday, officials are expected to discuss a range of options, including gradually moving the organization — called the Ukraine Defense Contact Group — into the alliance’s control, according to three European officials and a U.S. official with knowledge of the internal deliberations. The goal would be to finalize the move at the NATO leaders’ summit in Washington in July, one of the officials said.”
Congress included in the recently passed National Defense Authorization bill a provision that a president can’t withdraw the US from NATO without approval or the Senate or Congress.
Ostensibly this is a move to “Trump proof” the NATO alliance from a future Trump presidency. Is there anything Trump can’t do?
The provision, by the way, was co-sponsored by Marco Rubio.
When I remember growing up in the 1960s, I remember listening to Orpheus. It resembled The Association in its musicianship and vocal harmonies.
That remark prompted me to go to YouTube and type in “The Association”.
I had some recollection of sitting on a carpeted family room floor, back to the couch, watching them – among others – on our then new and to me mesmerizing Quasar color console TV. Turns out it was probably 1967. What variety show it was I have no idea. Smothers Brothers, Sonny and Cher, something else.
What I do know, or recall, is that they were seemingly the polite and safe adult approved youth music of the time.
Looking up the YT presentation and reading the coments I was struck again by the fact that we probably can never quite appreciate what stirs or resonates deeply with others. What seemed to me like a pleasant background sound to an exciting because it was in glorious color broadcast, had a profoundly affecting emotional impact on others. This, as almost every third comment seemed to reference it in reminiscence as “our song”, and many of those were by widows and widowers.
Cringe inducing or profoundly affecting: much seems to depend on the context.
@Bauxite
Karmi – If we send Ukraine weapons that can reach the Urals it would result in American and Western European weapons being used to kill Russians and destroy infrastructure inside of Russia.
It’s way way too late for that particular barn door, Bauxite. The Ukrainians have been striking targets inside internationally recognized Russian territory for over a year now, to say nothing of the fact that the Kremlin tried to tell us very much that Crimea and Kherson were as Russian as Novgorod the Great.
As well the Ukrainians SHOULD. The Putin regime used its cowardly and illegal cake-and-eat-it-too claim to be “neutral” while being one of the main combatants to fire artillery over the Ukrainian border since the Spring of 2014, counting on that it could do this without retaliation. I utterly oppose this for the same reason I oppose Hezbollah and Hamas being allowed to do this to Israel, and for reasons much like Orwell said.
“The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind.”
How do you think that Russia would respond?
Probably very similar to how the Russian dictatorship has already responded and acted, but moreso. More bombing and rocketing on Ukraine, more attempts to destabilize NATO and friendly countries bordering it and petty attempts to screw Western countries in exchange for things like giving Biden his seal of approval to midwife another Iran Nuclear Steal. The Kremlin lacks the resources and will do to much more than that, and it is trying to vastly expand its standing army after the latest recruiting drives on general terms fell short, and it was told in explicit terms by its Allies like the PRC and neutrals like India to STFU about threats like invading Poland or nuking things.
I mostly oppose giving the Ukrainians weapons to reach the Urals because I view them as mostly unnecessary. Almost all of its military targets and important economic ones are in the Black Sea or relatively near, and it would tie down logistical capacity for other support while not being that helpful and POSSiBLY unduly provocative. But on principle I believe the Ukrainians have every right to strike targets in Kamchatka.
Maybe we can thread the needle and cause Russia just enough pain to prompt them to back off against Ukraine, but not enough pain that direct war with NATO begins to look like their least bad option. Maybe not.
I am going to go out on a limb here and guess that the Russian dictatorship – for all of its many many many horrible traits – is less batshit insane and reckless than the musical chair Japanese juntas that I have so often compared it to. If emargos and failing to lift them or giving vastly more military aid than was given to the KMT were enough to spark a war we’d have seen it happen already, and for all of the many flaws of the Russian kakistocracy it at least provides some degree of stability. Whatever realistic prospects of Russia soloing NATO there were went out the window Pinochet-treatment-of-Commies style by mid 2022 at the latest, and even if the Kremlin did decide to go loud it would expect to do so without much support and with limited ability to impact resources. And the risk of losing what empire it has consolidated like in Transnistria and Northern Georgia and Belarus. Anyone wanna see White-Red-White band partisans going from sabotage to outright Peoples’ War in Belarus? That’s how you get it.
Conversely, if we assume the Russian cabal is as reckless or comparatively so to the Japanese War Socialists of Pearl Harbor and Nanjing infamy, then there is probably little we can do to outright avoid military conflict and we’d be best off fighting them as close to their territory as possible, if only so that if and when they turn the nuclear and WMD keys they have to spread them out thinner. Share the burden. One of the main problems we have faced is seeking to avoid conflict so much we let the enemy grow stronger. Hamas is case in point.
I DON’T think either is actually the case, but as an argument from strategic principles o think it makes sense.
The current generation of Americans is not particularly good at seeing the world through the eyes of their adversaries.
Sure but that goes for multiple viewpoints. And I won’t claim to be perfect at it and I do tend to assume an autistic level of relative consistency or rationality that often doesn’t fit in reality (for instance I assumed Putin was bluffing and would not escalate the war in early 2022, and I assumed the Taliban would not YOLO into attacking Iran and Pakistan).
I don’t see Ukraine hawks acknowedging what a delicate balance we’re trying to strike here,
Fair, though I think a lot of that is due to there being a lack of seeking that delicate balance in the West due to poor statesmanship and inconsistency. Biden has managed to get people to forget his ignominious role in Ukraine for years.
That said that doesn’t mean we can’t. And while I was one of the most visible Ukraine Hawks I am less so than Karmi because I have made clear I place conservative causes in the U.S. over Ukraine and will support Trump on the Election, and that factors in while speaking of purely political or military facets I can think of a few ways.
For one, the Russian Black Sea fleet needs to be destroyed or at least crippled. Ditto its facilities there. They were a major Trump card for the Kremlin in its aggression and are an all but irreplaceable asset for it. So getting rid of them is a win win for us, and would help stabilize the global economy further.
Secondly, the Ukrainians should cut the land bridge over Crimea and either carry out or at least maintain the capacity to interdict logistics to and from Crimea. It was the crown jewel of the occupation but also dependent on connections and inputs from Russian proper and Ukraine, which can be denied.
Thirdly, the Kremlin needs to be made to set forth tolerable terms for negotiation officially and stick to them. None of this chickenshit angling for a truce but not being willing to set solid terms for them or clarify what is meant.
or providing a clear plan for how we can achieve Ukranian victory.
Fair, and I won’t claim I have one. But I can think of a few conceits and general principles.
<blockquote! My fear is that we already played our best card with the economic sanctions
Economic sanctions are powerful but they tend to take time to bite fully. And they were never our best card. Political and military posturing and Intel and weapon aid were all stronger, as the Soviet war in Afghanistan shows.
and, now they they have failed to have any apprciable effect on Russia’s war effort, we’re out of good options.
If you think they have failed to have any appreciable effect on the Russian war effort you need to do more research. There was no magical collapse of the Russian economy overnight but the results were painful. The pre-war cadres of the Russian military and its auxiliaries are basically decimated along with much of its better equipment and they are forced to scrape together green units using older and older kit, and the Russian economy is struggling to make ends meet, especially with a more activist Finance Ministry that has had to manipulate the Ruble and manage more of the economy. That’s having a painful effect, and things like benefits for soldiers and casualties are already popping up in a big way due to how important state entitlements and payments are for the average Russian.
There are no magic bullets but there also doesn’t need to be.
It’s not hard to tell that the record is from the mid-60s. I could hear little bits of singing and music that reminded me of other songs of the era (was there a harpsichord in there?), but I couldn’t quite remember those other songs.
English professors would play a game where they read or showed each other obscure and unknown poems and tried to guess when they were written based on the style. Music majors may do the same thing. “Name That Year” might be a good game show, where contestants try to guess when forgotten popular songs came out based only on what they heard.
And of course, the host is British. He seems like someone from out of the 60s (or the 80s) himself, not a 21st century guy.
@Banned Lizard
Meanwhile, Elon sounds a cautionary note for both sides on the front lines of you-know-where.
This is worth addressing in detail so I’ll deal with this, @ Musk
It was a tragic waste of life for Ukraine to attack a larger army that had defense in depth, minefields and stronger artillery when Ukraine lacked armor or air superiority! Any fool could have predicted that.
My recommendation a year ago was for Ukraine to entrench and apply all resources to defense. Even then, it is tough to hold land that doesn’t have strong natural barriers.
There is no chance of Russia taking all of Ukraine, as the local resistance would be extreme in the west, but Russia will certainly gain more land than they have today.
The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too.
Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens.
There’s a lot to unpack here, but it’s worth addressing.
It was a tragic waste of life for Ukraine to attack a larger army that had defense in depth, minefields and stronger artillery when Ukraine lacked armor or air superiority! Any fool could have predicted that.
I would say it was a waste of life (in much the same way I disagree with phrasing about “Meat Waves” on the Russian Side unless the troops really are being badly mistreated like the low grade recruits near Bakhmut). It was a cost of life in a gamble. A gamble that was nowhere near as successful as it could have been or was hoped to be, but a rational one to break Russian lines.
I also note that “any fool” like what Musk predicted would have also failed to get the results of Chemin des Dames correct, where the French – demographically weaker and just on the wake of a major defeat in the offensives of 1917 – attacked a larger entrenched enemy with all of those things and beat them. Because when it comes to positional warfare mass is important but nowhere near as much as method. And for what it is worth the Ukrainians made a fair bit of progress – underwhelming and disappointing but still – in chewing into the land corridor and are now entrenching. Meaning the Russians will have to counterattack against similar issues if they want to retake it.
My recommendation a year ago was for Ukraine to entrench and apply all resources to defense. Even then, it is tough to hold land that doesn’t have strong natural barriers.
This is where Elon shows he isn’t even the beer and pretzels level military thinker I am.
Entrenching and applying all resources to defense made sense in the first months of the major Russian offensives in 2014-5 and 2022. But it DOESN’T make sense on the whole, and for PRECISELY the reasons Elon mentioned.
A PURELY DEFENSIVE STRATEGY – IN ADDITION TO THE POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS OF THE TERRITORY – DOES NOT REALLY WORK IN A POSITIONAL WAR WHEN YOU ARE OUTNUMBERED AND OUTGUNNED. Because THEN you give the incentive to the enemy and allow them to peel away your positions bit by bit using their superior firepower and numbers.
Once you lose that initiative it is maddeningly difficult to reclaim it and stop the spiral, and the Ukrainians have generally realized that and handled it well. Which is why they’ve generally spent most of the conflicts on the offensive somewhere. Because at least then you’re forcing the enemy to adapt their plans, fight at locations of your choosing with the assets they have on hand, and second guess themselves. Oh yeah while also persuading your public and foreign backers that you aren’t just going to walk over and get pounded.
This is literally Clausewitz 101.
“It has been already observed in a general way that the defensive is easier than the offensive; but as the defensive has a negative object, that of preserving, and the offensive a positive object that of conquering, and as the latter increases our own means of carrying on war,…”
That doesn’t mean I’m in favor of the Ukrainian army yoloing to Moscow, let alone the US or France joining in (especially under Biden and Macron). But it does that mean that if you want to lose the war by getting pounded to a pulp, going purely on the defensive is a stellar way to do that and if Marshal Musk’s advice was given, Kherson would still be under Russian occupation, the Black Sea would be more of a Russian lake, and the Black Sea Fleet capable of conducting a Tonnage War at its leisure.
There is no chance of Russia taking all of Ukraine, as the local resistance would be extreme in the west,
Dubious at best given Russian demographic advantage and the issues I’ve noted. There’s a reason the Ukrainians and others wouldn’t want the formation of durable client dictatorships inside their territory like Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia.
NOT THE LEAST BECAUSE THEY WOULD CONTINUE TO DISRUPT INTERNAL AND INTERNATIONAL UKRAINIAN DIPLOMACY AND THINGS LIKE EU OR NATO MEMBERSHIP, AND WOULD SERVE AS SPRINGBOARDS FROM WHICH TO CONQUER THE REST OF UKRAINE EVENTUALLY.
This is not rocket science. Indeed this is quite literally how the Tsars ended the great wars of the Deluge with hegemony over only one bank of the Dnieper in Ukraine and ended the century about 30 years later in control of both. The formation of Manchukuo and a bunch of others gave the Japanese juntas leverage to go after the rest of China, the the Kremlin’s had mouthpieces openly talking of linking up with Transnistria and even militarily intervening to overthrow the Moldovan government, Nazi annexation of Austria allowed it to leverage an envelopment of Czechoslovakia, the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia into puppet or allied states gave it the chance to attack Finland on all sides, etc etc etc.
I can cite more, but you get the idea.
The only way this deal makes sense from the Ukrainian POV is if the Kremlin is forced to abide solidly by the peace in exchange for territorial annexations. AND CONSIDERING THIS WAR STARTED BECAUSE THE KREMLIN DUMPSTERED THE LAST SET OF GUARENTEES, I cannot fault Kyiv (or anyone else) for questioning the wisdom of that.
but Russia will certainly gain more land than they have today.
….which is precisely why the Ukrainians and others like myself are not interested in this right now. Especially given how there is LITERALLY NO FREAKING GUARANTEE the Kremlin will not try and take all of Ukraine in a generation or two later. Or even next year.
The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too.
This is simply fucking bullshit and shows Musk has been huffing something. And moreover, this would be false EVEN IF the Russians do eventually reach the Dnieper and consolidate.
(PS: The Dnieper is not “too tough to overcome.” It IS Tough to overcome, but both sides have done it at various points in the war, and the Ukrainians flat out have done it in the lower bends, as have other armies through history).
The fact is, the Kremlin HAS NOT enjoyed consistent advantages or territorial gaining the more the war has gone on. Indeed it has generally waxed and waned, with phases of the war starting with truly massive offensives and significant land gains, only for those to be petered out and slowly eaten up by more gradual but steady Ukrainian counterattacks in the face of smaller and less successful but more costly Russian casualties. This is what we saw from 2014 to 2021. This is what we saw from 2022 to now.
The Kremlin actively holds less territory in Ukraine than it did in 2023, and it held less territory at the end of 2023 than at the start. Because there is no more magical “Russia Stronk” victory timer gradually giving Russia more and more territory for no reason, any more than there is a magical “Ukraine Stronk.”
Territorial control depends on things like material and manpower considerations, morale, and the ability to win the loyalty of the locals. And one of the things that gets overlooked has been the collapse in credibility of the Donbaschukuo governments and the waning enthusiasm in Crimea for coming “Home to Russia.”
Moreover, Odessa was always going to be a tough nut to crack and with the losses to the Black Sea Fleet it is probably not practical. The only avenues are amphibious assault (which would’ve been tough even with the Moskva but which now is downright crazy), fighting overland (over the territory Ukraine has forced the Kremlin to evacuate from and then some) to it, or some mixture of both (which is probably the easiest to succeed but the hardest to get the preconditions for).
Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question.
Which is another reason I do not take Musk very seriously on this issue at all. See the issue of asphyxiation that popped up with Interwar Poland and the peril a Russian held Sevastopol ultimately had not only to Crimea but also to the rest of Ukraine.
HELL MUSK, YOU QUITE LITERALLY IN THIS THREAD CLAIMED THAT ODESSA WOULD FALL IF THE WAR WENT ON. IN WHAT WORLD IS THIS NOT A GREAT CAUTIONARY STORY TO ANYONE ABOUT THE RISKS OF ALLOWING RUSSIA TO CONSOLIDATE ITS OCCUPATION AND FURTHER THREATEN IT?
I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens.
I recommend Musk re-read Minsk I and II and the violations thereof and kindly go fuck off to study history and remedial military tactics more.
As he says, it’s not necessarily all risk on one side and reward on the other.
Agreed, which is why in spite of being a resident Ukraine hawk I do not go as far as Karmi. I have no interest in a World War, and indeed one of the reasons I condemn Putin and his ilk is for making this more likely.
To minimize losses and preserve its existence, the underdog should withdraw to defensible positions and negotiate. It’s just that simple.
No, no it is not Banned Lizard.
And this would be easy to prove by simply looking at how that worked out for the Baltic States in the 1920s, and Czechoslovakia in 1938-39.
How has it worked out for Moldova and Georgia?
There is a very simple matter of trust and credibility. Who on Earth is going to trust that Putin will keep his word if given this kind of ceasefire? Why would Ukraine consent to it? Why would the US believe the Kremlin will stick to it?
That’s the spirit!
Given how deep electoral fraud is entrenched here in the states, an intervention from above might be our only hope.
Agreed there, sadly. Also why while I will argue passionately about Ukraine, it is not my main concern. One of them maybe, but I am an America Firster.
I appreciate your exuberance. You are bang on with the “pruning” idea, and blowing raspberries at our potential savior.
I disagree with Karmi plenty, but why would I believe Putin is even our “potential savior”? The man has openly aligned with Islamists and the CCP. He is financing Watermelon Green-Reds to try and help us commit economic and ecological suicide.
He doesn’t seem very excitable, however, so I doubt he can be provoked into doing us the favor.
He’s plenty excitable and at least his lieutenants want us to believe that given their blather about nuking Ukraine and/or Poland and invading Moldova. I don’t think most of them are honestly there.
The fraud regime we suffer under is likely the worst possible punishment of all.
You are far too generous. As bad as the situation is now, it can get worse. A One Party State Dem one being official would be worse. Biden or his puppet masters with emergency powers would be worse. And frankly a Kremlin style system, a CCP inspired regime, or an Islamist Theocracy would be worse.
Karmi: I would not be fine with decades of the U.S. cowering before Russia, if that is what we had been doing. I think our policy towards Russia has been foolishly inconsistent and unwisely provocative since the 1990s at least, but it hasn’t involved a lot of cowering. Unless you want to characterize Hillary Clinton’s “reset” button and Obama’s hot-mic promise of post-election “flexibility” to Medvedev as cowering. I regard them as typically inept and ill-advised.
I don’t recall Trump asking for Russia’s permission before pink-misting its mercenaries in Syria, neutering its leverage over other countries by boosting U.S. energy production, or sending Javelin missiles to Ukraine. As for NATO telling Russia to get out of Ukraine or else, that has been done, repeatedly. It hasn’t had the desired effect.
Hence my questions to you. I asked them because I’m honestly interested in your answers–and MKent’s. You seem to be keen on going to war with Russia. How do you think that would go?
By the way, I worked at a U.S. broadcasting establishment during the last decade of the Cold War, writing research articles on Soviet social problems and their war in Afghanistan. I like to think that I and my colleagues on the broadcasting side of the house played a small part in bringing about the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the USSR. Vaclav Havel seemed to think we did. I mention this by way of demonstrating my anti-totalitarian credentials. Yours?
@Karmi
I wouldn’t care how they responded –
I do. It’s good form to care about how one’s enemies respond, especially in a risky state there.
hopefully they would stand up and fight instead of rolling over.
“Hopefully”?
Do you have any friends or loved ones in the military or formerly there? I have no reason to want a hot war beyond what is necessary, especially under the Brandon Regime, and I certainly don’t want it to be a long and hard one. Leaving aside the damage it would do to us, our allies, and Ukraine, destroying or crippling Russia would probably help create a vacuum into which the Islamists and the PRC would seep further.
If that’s necessary, so be it. But it isn’t necessary.
Russia needs to be told to get out of all the Ukraine, or NATO will increase the aid to include weapons
It has been. It is not very interested in being told.
that will force all Russians east of the Urals. NATO would also provide full air support to Ukraine.
What the fuck?
It’s telling that the prospect of STARTING A GODDAMN WORLD WAR by trying to get as many NATO member states into a war of choice (which for NATO it is even if not for Ukraine) is the less egregious here.
“Force all Russians East of the Urals””?
DO YOU KNOW WHAT THE HELL THAT IS?!? THAT IS ETHNIC CLEANSING, AND LIKELY GENOCIDE. AKA, SOME OF THE THINGS THE KREMLIN HAS BEEN DOING IN GEORGIA AND OCCUPIED PARTS OF UKRAINE, BUT ON A MUCH, MUCH MORE LIMITED SCALE THAN THIS.
I WILL HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO PART IN THIS.
On moral level level alone, let alone a pragmatic one.
PS: Well done giving the Kremlin’s propagandists ammunition to claim NATO is really Nazi and imitating Hitler’s imaginary policy of forcing the Soviets East of the Ark-Ast Line.
NATO & Europe needs a buffer zone between them and the Russians—a buffer zone of all European Russia to the Urals would be perfect…
A “buffer zone between them and the Russians” is pretty much Belarus and Ukraine. And as for “perfect”? There is no perfect in the mortal world, and even if you did get what you wanted there would become problems with it, such as the risk of a PRC in control of Siberia going Westwards.
So you’re fine with decades of the US cowering before Russia — Only sending the support to Ukraine that Russia *ALLOWS* the US to send — threats to start a nuclear war against us?
No I am not. Indeed, the appeasement of Kremlin BS has been something I have consistently condemned, and I have pointed out that it has gone on far longer and more universally than any political pundits want to claim. I have also been one of those advocating that – contra Bauxite and co – the US continue sending weapons and even escalate that and blow the Kremlin’s threats a raspberry (if not even punish them for that).
But there’s a hell of a gap between my advocacy of a strong, proud, and defiantly assertive stance towards the Kremlin and limiting both appeasement and concessions while trying to destroy the Kremlin’s occupation empire in Eastern Europe, and rushing into a World War with Russia under Biden.
We are part of NATO – and NATO should tell Russia to get out of the Ukraine (that included Crimea) or we will provide better weapons to Ukraine, and provide them with full air support.
I agree with the first half of that, and that is why NATO members generally have done so. But “Full Air Support”? While we struggle to deal with the Russiabaiting smear and a descending dystopia at home? No.
If they want war then all they have to do is stay in the Ukraine.
Indeed, and they already are. Which is why I advocate bleeding them out and inflicting pain to push them back.
And if we absolutely HAVE to force them out by military action by NATO and other Western Allies, CAN WE KINDLY HOLD OFF ON THAT UNTIL AFTER WE’VE DEALT WITH THE BRANDON REGIME AND OTHER EXISTENTIAL THREATS AT HOME?
This is a rare opportunity to break Russia from bullying Europe & others…
I agree. But it’s a rare opportunity in part because it’s an incredibly costly war of aggression by the Kremlin in its “near abroad” against the most powerful of its neighbors, in a war where the “We are under threat from Nazi NATO, Great Patriotic War 3” narrative is falling rather fallow. This is where the pressure cooker approach helps, in much the same way that for all of the problems our Afghan policy had sending Stingers to shoot down Soviet Air Force was more effective than sending the entire USAF to do so would have been.
Unfortunately, the US could do with a good pruning, but sometimes one needs to call in a strike on their own position.
Agreed, but key emphasis on the NEEDS TO.
We do not need to Yet, or if we do then we would be better of dealing with it without the complexity of being a direct combatant in a major peer on peer war.
Fuk Russia and the Russians!
My contempt for the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, and his ilk should speak for itself in my posts. I have condemned the Kremlin’s antics for years, and prior to your appearance I was noted as being perhaps the arch anti-Putin Hawk on this thread. I can speak at great length about Russian crimes and pathologies not just under the current regime but before.
But I have no interest in trying to become the strawman boogeyman Putin and co claim we are. I have no interest in a new Hunger Plan or Barbarossa to force hundreds of millions of Russians East of a new A-A Line, and I certainly do not trust Biden and Obama with the power needed to wage a hot war.
Leaders come and go much more readily than nations and people, and frankly it would be better for all that the time comes that there is a Russia without Tsars, be they White, Red, Grey, or Black Hundredist. That includes for Ukraine, given the risks of what the alternatives are.
That does not mean I am an appeaser, it does not mean I do not favor Ukraine fighting until it has ejected all Russian forces from Ukraine at possible, and it does not even mean I will completely rule out Allied forces doing so later if absolutely necessary. But it does not a genocidaire or racist.
Have been using LibreOffice for 5-6 years now—full-time for the past 2-3 years.
Have a license for MS Office Home & Student 2019 (??) on some test computers, but have LibreOffice on them also. Have built so many computers over the years that I got tired of renewing a license on new builds because of what MS put me thru each time. Started trying LibreOffice (LO) – and some other free open source suites, and ended up liking LibreOffice (LO) the most out of that open source group.
I wouldn’t recommend LO over Office for businesses & pros, but it is great for students, kids computers, your home computer, etc. MS made a change in Office somewhere around 2015 +- and I didn’t care for the new look and ‘Feel’. That’s the reason I barely use the 2019 single license versions that I now have.
LO isn’t as good MS Office, but a basic word processor user like me barely notices—but I do notice at times. If you are finding MS Office to be too expensive, then give LO a try.
Turtler: Jeez…relax dude.
Anyway, I’ve moved on from that topic in this thread.
Did love the job in the Turtler on April 5, 2024 at 2:58 pm said: @Bauxite comment tho…
turtler:
The ” do you have any family or friends in the US military” argument is weak.
@om
It is weak in isolation, but it is still existent. Which is why I did not use it in isolation.
@Karmi
Jeez…relax dude
Fair, but I could say the same to you.
Did love the job in the Turtler on April 5, 2024 at 2:58 pm said: @Bauxite comment tho…
I try.
Fil from Wings of Pegasus and Rick Beato are two of the best inside music YouTube channels. Fil’s battle against pitch correction and analysis of vocals is legendary.
turtler:
It is weak because it is much the same as a feminist abortion deovtee insisting that XY humans have nothing to say to XX humans about abortion. Not sure how the XY and XX argument can be held in our new trans understanding of biology, morality, and life the universe and everything …..
@om
It is weak because it is much the same as a feminist abortion deovtee insisting that XY humans have nothing to say to XX humans about abortion.
No, it is not. I was not saying that those without friends or loved ones in the service or formerly in the service have NOTHING To say. Indeed, some of them say much more sensible things than those that are in the service or have been. See: Milley.
However, I was pointing out that it is easy to chest thump online about a war and hoping the enemy great power fights, with the damage that would do all around.
Turtler: Stop yelling.
Maybe take a knee or sit out the next few plays.
Turtler on April 5, 2024 at 3:49 pm said:
OK…read it all (am a slow reader). I also don’t care if you agree or disagree. 😉
Great points throughout!!!
Great commenters on this blog—many are absolutely amazing. Far beyond my educational skills—much more so than on any other blog or board I have ever been on. Thanks to Neo for not banning humble me…yet!
@IrishOtter49
Stop yelling.
Maybe take a knee or sit out the next few plays.
I could, but Colin Kapernick is not a role model I intend to. I may have all capsed or bolded a bit too much, but what is done is done and I think the points were worth hammering home.
A few short comments before I head back outside to get some raking done before dark…
”Commenter MKent is on record on this forum saying that the U.S. Army and Air Force would make short work of the Russian armed forces.”
So my blog comments haven’t been just pissing into the wind! It’s gratifying to know that. Thanks.
But for the record, I think the U. S. Air Force (with some help from the U. S. Navy) would make short work of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. I don’t think the U. S. Army would have to get involved. Why would they? Ukraine has plenty of troops under arms to occupy their own territory.
”NATO & Europe needs a buffer zone between them and the Russians—a buffer zone of all European Russia to the Urals would be perfect…”
This is how we get ourselves nuked. Russian threats of using nukes against France, the UK, and the US are (mostly) just blather. Russia is not going to nuke a nuclear power because it sent Ukraine more Bradleys, Storm Shadows, or ATACMS. It will, however, bring out the nukes if one attempts to occupy Moscow or St. Petersburg.
But comments like this illustrate why America must not only remain in NATO but lead it. The European powers have too much history for anyone to trust them for their own security. Only America has both the power and the principles to lead a large multi-national force and have it be trusted as a defensive alliance.
”…we already played our best card with the economic sanctions and, now they they have failed to have any apprciable effect on Russia’s war effort.”
This is not true. The sanctions have had a very large effect on Russia’s ability to make war — an effect the Russians obviously did not foresee. Holes need to be plugged, for sure, but the effect is a strong one.
More later, if Turtler doesn’t use up all of the electrons…
I am disappointed that this thread was so hijacked by comments on Ukraine. I was expecting (and hoping for) mostly comments on “Pretty Ballerina”.
Basherte:
“Open thread” means open to wherever people take it.
It ain’t hijacking (that would be an oxymoron in an Open thread). Sads?
“Russia is not going to nuke a nuclear power because it sent Ukraine more Bradleys, Storm Shadows, or ATACMS. It will, however, bring out the nukes if one attempts to occupy Moscow or St. Petersburg.
America must not only remain in NATO but lead it. The European powers have too much history for anyone to trust them for their own security. Only America has both the power and the principles to lead a large multi-national force and have it be trusted as a defensive alliance.” -mkent
Your comment is absurd, mkent. No one in Europe is making that kind of strategic argument that NATO needs to drive Russia back.
om, if you have a family member called on to fight a war, you have an obligation to make damn sure the war is absolutely necessary and its objectives and exit point are clearly defined. The cost is too high to do otherwise.
MKent: Pissing into the wind? Hardly. I always read your comments and wish you would weigh in more often. I’ll try to respond to your take on the Ukraine war, the U.S., and NATO tomorrow.
Basherte: Yes, Ukraine tends to suck all the oxygen out of the comment space, which is why some commenters avoid uttering the country’s name and resort to code words instead (like using “the Scottish play” for Macbeth). In my defense, I did comment on the music angle first.
DNW: Orpheus described itself as a “soft rock” group, which fits. I’d put The Association in the same category, along with The Stone Poneys, The Mamas & the Papas, The Beach Boys, and lesser groups (e.g. The Youngbloods). My tastes tended a little harder at the time–I liked Cream, the Stones, and Hendrix–but in retrospect I’ve realized how much of the soundtrack of those years was supplied by the softer groups. It wasn’t just muzak.
Brain E:
They are adults. They will do what they will. No matter what you take as your damned obligation.
Objectives, exit points, and the signs on the door to the Pottery Barn? Any more wisdom given Vlad’s behavior since 2008?
‘NATO is obsolete and has outlived its utility since the USSR has disappeared’ I recall you recently opined. Funny that Europe (Finland, Sweden, and others living closer to your fave, The Russian Federation) mostly does not share your assessment. I wonder why. Then again we in Eastern Washington mostly have to deal with tyrants in Olympia not Moscow (the other one, not in Idaho).
Elements of a black swan present as follows:
1) The border remains wide open.
2) Haiti’s reputation for cannibalism is not a myth.
3) Densely populated blue cities are lightly armed compared to rural areas.
4) Liberal communities will welcome Haitians with open arms… and be eaten.
om, I guess you’ve never had a son riding around waiting to get shot at so he could shoot back? For what? A war that could never be won.
I imagine as long as the Europeans can suckle off the American teat, they’ll find NATO useful.
Re: Pretty Ballerina
I was impressed by his pitch analysis that the Left Banke singer was a pro hitting the notes.
I thought those guys were good.
Unfortunately, two-hit wonders.
We had a good discussion about them someways back.
Brain E:
I guess you’ve never had a son riding around waiting to get shot at so he could shoot back? A war that could never be won.
So your boys fighting for Vlad will dictate ROE for NATO forces if that ever comes to pass?
IIRC the Ruskies do wear uniforms even if they don’t follow agreed principles for dealing with civilians and captured Ukrainians. So the ROEs that apply to insurgents and such won’t apply, except in your fever dreams.
Your Donbas and Luhansk “freedom” fighters (2014-2022) may not have been a recognized army. That isn’t the case now,
You might want to revisit the whole concept of XX humans saying XY humans can’t speak to abortion. Weak tea Brain E.
Nostradomus speaks. The Cold War could never be won. WWI wasn’t our concern, neither was WWII in Europe. Any other grand historical wisdom to share? Casting back to the Civil War, The Copperheads said that the South couldn’t be defeated either IIRC.
Any more grand strategery or history you need to share.
Your comments are absurd, Brain E?
Today’s earthquake made for an exciting half-minute in the office! And conversation afterward.
I sure loved “The Left Banke” back in the day. There was some legal problem and their first album became an expensive collector’s item. Mine was a pirate I got from a used record store in Cambridge.
They were another 60s group which lost their footing in the 70s, though they tried.
Maybe it’s not so hard to catch the lightning once or twice, but long-term it’s a much harder game.
huxley:
I’m in complete agreement that long-term is a much harder game.
But I think it’s pretty hard to “catch the lightening” even once in a song as wonderful as “Walk Away Renee.” That hook is one of the catchiest and hookiest in pop music history.
“The Left Banke” was labeled “baroque pop,” which I guess means baroque arrangements and a harpsichord.
Can you imagine such a fragile synthesis surviving in pop today?
neo;
I’m prone to my enthusiasms, so I try to rein in my hyperbolic instincts, but sure, “Walk Away Renee” was from another plane of songwriting.
Thanks for the kind words, Hubert. I’ll try to live up to them.
”No one in Europe is making that kind of strategic argument that NATO needs to drive Russia back.”
Don’t look now, but Europe is preparing for war. Against Russia. If you get your wish and Russia breaks through the Ukrainian lines, World War III is on, and then only the gods of the copybook headings know how it will end. I doubt either of us, if we survive, will be happy with the outcome.
For those of you not following what’s going on, the YouTuber Artur Rehi gives a decent summary of the situation here.
I don’t really follow him — merely check in on him from time to time — but he does seem to have a handle on the situation from an Eastern European perspective. He’s an infantryman who has been on the ground in Ukraine and has met with (and gone shooting with) the troops there. He’s also Estonian and frequently gives his country’s opinions on Russia and the reasons for them (hint: they don’t much like Russia).
This video starts with five minutes of a rather sentimental visit of a Ukrainian farm boy by some of their troops. It makes a point, but not the one I’m trying to highlight. For that watch the rest of the video.
If anyone thinks Trump or any American is going to make the Ukrainians accept their genocide, you really need to get a cluebat and hit yourself over the head with it. The world is a big place, and most things that happen in it happen for reasons that have nothing to do with domestic American politics.
This war is one of them. It has nothing to do with Trump, Biden, or any other American. America can influence the results, yes, but the war won’t go away if America walks away from it. Instead it will get bigger, deadlier, and could very well spiral into hell.
Don’t look now, but Europe is preparing for war. Against Russia.
mkent:
That’s my read. Not without reason.
I’d rather it wasn’t on the menu and I’d rather not have to make a choice.
You can’t always get what you want.
mkent:
I appreciate your consistent and realistic coments on the Russian conquest of Ukraine. The isolationists and deluded “realists” seem not to care about the immediate or long term consequences of Russian aggression.
Are they ahistorical, or immune to cause and effect, or just useful idiots?
Karmi, “did Willis violate the Maryland Wiretap Act?”
IIRC, there was a similar incident of her recording the Trump et al. conversation seeking 11K votes or something, while she was in Florida on vacation? This potentially was a violation of FL law, except maybe she has a defense as a “law enforcement” person at that time??
This is an article on the negotiations Russia and Ukraine were engaged in on late March 2022, from a Ukrainian perspective. These were the talks that Boris Johnson derailed with promises of massive sanctions and military aid.
I listened to MN Cong. Dean Phillips, who challenged Biden, on Jordan Peterson’s show. Phillips, who grew up with grandmom Dear Abby and grandaunt Ann Landers, explained why he’s a Dem. It’s because Hubert Humphrey gave a speech in 1948 denouncing antisemitism.
Phillips’ district shares a boundary with that of Ilhan Omar, well noted for antisemitic remarks.
I was disappointed that Peterson did not bring up the current battle in Gaza. I suspect they had agreed beforehand that the topic wouldn’t be discussed. No doubt it is a source of great cognitive dissonance for Phillips.
The congressman sounds like many on the center left. He’s been living in a leftist bubble so long that he still believes in many of the anti-Trump hoaxes.
People up thread talking about how Russia would respond puts me in a mind when I was working certain tasking in the Navy:
“When you see those MIRVs comin’ down through the sky just bend over and kiss your dead ass goodbye.”
Gordon Scott, thanks for that story about Dean Philips. One of his cousins is Scott Johnson, at Power Line. Must be another change story there.
Hubert: sorry about not getting back to you yesterday – had wanted to move on from the discussion, but then Turtler tweaked my attention.
Russia has been foolishly inconsistent and unwisely provocative since the 1990s at least, but it hasn’t involved a lot of cowering.
Any cowering is way too much IMHO, but we will agree to just disagree on that.
You seem to be keen on going to war with Russia. How do you think that would go?
“keen” on going to war? If someone walks up to you and kicks your dog into the street—then tells you that he will shoot the dog & you the next time—what do you do?
Russia is the one starting wars > threatening more wars > threatening nuclear attacks, so it seems that Russia is the one who is “keen” for war and not me. You have probably never been to prison or had a job to ‘Subdue‘ people whilst using only the necessary force required to subdue them – so maybe my points don’t come across as I intend them—verbal conversation isn’t my strong suit…so to speak.
I don’t believe that anyone who gives me the evil eye should be allowed to keep that eye.
I like to think that I and my colleagues on the broadcasting side of the house played a small part in bringing about the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the USSR. Vaclav Havel seemed to think we did.
Small parts are a *BIG* part of most success, IMHO, so I agree with Vaclav Havel…
Since this is an open thread and in case Hubert didn’t see this on Monday:
The Last Stand of IJN Takao – Guns vs Godzilla (April 1st) – Drachinifel
Kim Jong Un gets a bad rap and no credit for holding back Godzilla…
So long story short i was in the hospital for the last three days thats why my sparkling commentary was so sparse
Om: Thanks, missed that. The Takao class (Takao, Atago, Maya, and Chokai) were great ships. Way ahead of their time.
MKent and Karmi: Got some stuff to do this morning (including mailing off my tribute to Uncle Sam); will respond later.
Miguel: Welcome back. I was wondering where the Finnegans Wake stuff had gone (I keed!). Hope you’re doing OK now. I suspect the commentariat on this forum are in a similar age cohort–what a friend calls “The Senior Organ Recital” group.
Miguel cervantes – had wondered & welcome back.
Miguel cervantes, I hope are recovering well and will stay out of the hospital!
Thanks all
Phillips, who grew up with grandmom Dear Abby and grandaunt Ann Landers
==
His grandfather lived and worked several places, Minneapolis among them; that’s where his father settled and spent his life. Ann Landers’ husband moved his family to Chicago in 1955, and she remained there the rest of her life; Abby never lived there. The two sisters spent > 15 years not on speaking terms and Ann Landers’ daughter launched vitriolic public attacks on Abby’s daughter after Ann died. She also issued denunciations of Abby over disputes between the sisters > 35 years in the past; Abby was too demented by that point to reply and her husband and children decided to let it ride.
==
Dean Phillips’ father is profiled here:
== https://www.startribune.com/liquor-tycoon-was-known-for-philanthropy/119532504/
Miguel:
Good for you!
“Don’t look now, but Europe is preparing for war. Against Russia. If you get your wish and Russia breaks through the Ukrainian lines, World War III is on” -mkent
I listened to the vlogger you mentioned, and while entertaining, I hope you have more reliable sources to make the claim you are making.
Is Germany part of Europe?
From what I’ve read, Macron has suggested 2,000 French troops if, IF Russia were to make a move to Odessa. That’s unlikely, since any assault from the south would be incredibly difficult, and with the Ukrainian defense of Kherson, there is no access without going through Zaporizhzhia.
I see Macron’s and other European nations posturing is a threat to increase Ukraine’s bargaining position at any settlement. Any European troops would likely be used in logistical positions, freeing up Ukrainians to fight at the front lines.
Another unknown, is can Ukraine keep providing fresh troops. They did lower the age for conscription from 27 to 25.
It is encouraging that Europe is stepping up to provide for their defense.
I hope Brain E proves to be more reliable in the …….. whatever.
Vlad attacking Odessa and “liberating” all of Moldova is rather difficult since Russia no longer has a functional Black Sea Fleet. But Brain E has downplaid that for months now.
So why exactly does Russia need Sevastapol or the Kirch Straits Bridge (the dread Dead Bridge Standing)? Things happen in war.
Brian E:
Conscription age for Russia is 18 thru 30 years old (recently raised from 27 to 30).
Ukraine’s is unusual, IMHO, and minimum age is now 25—tho a quick search didn’t provide what max age is.
“The average soldier’s age on both sides is over 40, military analysts say.”
”Vlad attacking Odessa and ‘liberating’ all of Moldova is rather difficult since Russia no longer has a functional Black Sea Fleet.”
That will make it interesting. What will make it even more interesting is if Russia breaks through the Ukrainian lines and then Moldova and Romania decide to merge, what with Romania being a NATO member and all. Very interesting indeed.
I’ve done a deep dive into the Russian and Ukrainian entanglements going back as far as khelmenitsky, the Cossack who was able to keep his head, and the two heads of the Dnieper together,
Art Deco: Ah, so the Phillips brand of various liquors is related to them?
Interesting about Ann and Abby. I read once that leadership in the ACLU was an example of Jewish family politics. This was back when ACLU stood for something.
Kate: I had no idea he and Scott Johnson were related, and I’ve followed Powerline for many years.
Phillips struck me as a decent guy, who happens to be wrong about some stuff. That was what I grew up with; you might know a neighbor’s politics, but you never brought up politics, and you worked with him to get the youth baseball backstop upgraded and reinforced.
MKent: “But for the record, I think the U. S. Air Force (with some help from the U. S. Navy) would make short work of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine.” You sound like someone who has professional knowledge of U.S. military capabilities and U.S. military production capacity. If you say that the U.S. Air Force could defeat Russia’s air defense systems and destroy the Russian forces in Ukraine, I’ll take your word for it. But if we pull the trigger (and it’s not clear that you’re saying we should), we’d be at war with Russia. What then? How do you think they’d respond to the destruction of their forces in Ukraine at our–and NATO’s–hands? Might they strike back there, or elsewhere? I think they would. Again: what then? Do you think this country is ready for a full-fledged war–a world war–with a peer competitor and its probable allies, even allies of convenience? I take it you do. I don’t.
“But comments like this illustrate why America must not only remain in NATO but lead it. The European powers have too much history for anyone to trust them for their own security. Only America has both the power and the principles to lead a large multi-national force and have it be trusted as a defensive alliance.” We used to. We don’t any more. Sorry, but we can’t be responsible for security in Europe in perpetuity. We can’t even secure our own country’s borders. I’m with Huxley and Turtler on this: I hope Ukraine can preserve its independence from Russia, but my country takes precedence.
“Don’t look now, but Europe is preparing for war. Against Russia.” Well, good for Europe. Preparing for war against Russia seems like a prudent thing for Europe to do. Eighty years after WWII and thirty-five years after the Cold War, I’d say it’s about time. Europe has big, wealthy countries with well-developed industrial infrastructure. I know; I lived there. They can defend themselves; they should defend themselves. That’s precisely Artur Rehi’s point.
Karmi: Your prison-yard analogy–of somebody kicking our dog and threatening further bodily harm to the dog and to us–actually works better with Iran than with Russia. Iran occupied our embassy in Tehran. Iran killed over 240 Marines in Beirut. Iran has been behind other acts of mayhem and terrorism against the United States and its people. Iran has been giving us the evil eye for forty-five years. Not only with impunity, but with apologies and pallets of cash–from us! You want an example of “cowering”? Look there. BTW: you still haven’t answered my question about how you think a war with Russia would play out.
Hubert:
..actually works better with Iran than with Russia.
Seriously!?! The Shah was overthrown in 1979. Russia was giving us the evil eye long before that. However, Iran also deserves to be seriously thrashed, e.g. wipe out it’s nuclear capability, some military sites & barracks, and entire navy.
BTW: you still haven’t answered my question about how you think a war with Russia would play out.
You sound like a liberal w/ repeating questions. If I don’t answer a question – then don’t behave like a liberal and repeat it to me again.
“Vlad attacking Odessa and “liberating” all of Moldova is rather difficult since Russia no longer has a functional Black Sea Fleet.”
That’s not why they haven’t attacked Odessa, but the loss of landing craft makes it even less likely.
Here is an analysis by the US Naval Institute from 2022 listing several reasons why an amphibious landing assault would be likely disastrous for Russia.
Topography– high cliffs without much maneuvering ability. The areas with beaches suitable for landings open to urban areas which would leave the landing force vulnerable to attack.
Even in 2022, Russia had a marginal number of landing craft which would have required a continuous landing of the craft they had over days to bring enough men and armament to mount an invasion of such a large city. Any mechanical breakdowns would be disastrous. They would need continuous air support. Russia hasn’t been able to establish air superiority to any extent.
Their conclusion:
Vagaries of weather and sea conditions, restrictions of hydrography and topography, limitations of amphibious lift, difficulties maintaining air superiority, and challenges of logistics all point to the risky nature of any Russian amphibious operation in the Black Sea. It would only take a few elements not in their favor to spell disaster and make any Russian amphibious operation against Ukraine a “Beach Too Far.”
”But if we pull the trigger (and it’s not clear that you’re saying we should), we’d be at war with Russia.”
You are correct. I am not saying we should. It would be a dicey proposition with even the best people in charge. With either Trump or whoever is calling the shots in a Biden administration? Yikes! It’s downright terrifying.
”How do you think they’d respond to the destruction of their forces in Ukraine at our–and NATO’s–hands?”
Most likely they’d conduct a full mobilization, draw every available Soviet-era weapon out of storage, and send it all into Ukraine and other targets of opportunity. I do not think they would resort to nuclear weapons unless they thought the heart of Russia (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Siberia) was at risk.
”We used to. [have the trust to lead a multi-national alliance] We don’t any more.”
We still do, and we are the only ones who do. A recent example: Remember a few years ago when Trump offered to buy Greenland from Denmark? Neither Denmark nor Greenland were interested, and the discussion ended there. After the offer was declined, did anyone here, in Greenland, in Denmark, or even in Russia believe we’d take Greenland by force? It wouldn’t even be that hard — we already have a military base there.
Of course not. Even the idea of it sounds ridiculous. For which other hegemon in all of history could you say that? None, probably. But that’s why we’ve been able to mostly keep the peace for 75 years by maintaining military bases in something close to 100 countries. Everyone, friend and foe alike, understands that keeping the peace, not conquest, is why we’re there.
Now, look at it from Russia’s perspective. Would you rather have an American-led NATO on your western border or a French-led NATO? Or a German-led NATO? Or a Polish, Swedish, or Finnish-led NATO? (Note for the historically challenged: Russia has been at war with each of these countries.)
Ideally you’d want no NATO at all so you could pick off your neighbors one by one. But barring that, you’d want an American-led NATO, because at least then you wouldn’t have to worry about being conquered from the west.
I wasn’t clear in my original comment, but this is why I say that America must lead NATO. No one would trust anyone else with that much power.
mkent,
Apparently there was a conversation between French FM and Russia FM in the last day or two.
The Duran talks about the readout from the call. French say they talked about ISIS-K. Russia says they talked about a freeze in Ukraine.
Which side do you believe?
Now it is possible Macron was merely giving the Russians a chance to return to Istanbul before committing French troops to Ukraine. That would certainly give your position credence that France has decided it does have an appetite for war. That would mark a huge change in position though, since France has been one of the stingiest European countries to date in providing aid to Ukraine.
I do not think they would resort to nuclear weapons unless they thought the heart of Russia (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Siberia) was at risk.
It’s a rare opportunity to gain an Ally like Ukraine. NATO should be coming together much quicker, prepping to add Ukraine into NATO, and in the meanwhile—start authorizing much more weaponry for Ukraine.
Ukraine has the right to destroy all means of electricity in any Russian city they want to – including at least Moscow & St. Petersburg. NATO needs to be providing the means to do so, IMHO.
If Russia wants to conduct a full mobilization and start a war with NATO—because of those means – then so be it. It would be quite foolish on Russia’s part to do so – or to resort to nuclear war, but it is long past the time to break Russia of attacking neighbors and threatening others.
MKent: Thanks. I agree that war with Russia would be a dicey proposition. It would have been a dicey proposition when we were at our peak of military power and influence in the world. Even dicier now. That’s why I think we should avoid it if possible.
Your comments sent me back to the history books. By my count, there have been five countries that defeated or fought Russia/USSR to a draw in the past 120 years: Japan (1904-1905); Wilhelmine Germany (1914-1918); Poland (1919-1920, with French aid); Finland (1939-1940 and 1941-1944); and Afghanistan (1979-1989). Depending on your POV, you could throw in Estonia and Latvia in 1918-1920 or the border clashes on the Ussuri River with the PRC in the late 1960s. Finland lost territory but preserved its independence. That may be the best scenario on offer for Ukraine.
Karmi: That’s the point. Iran has been dissing and inflicting human and material damage on us for a very long time. As for my question about war with Russia, I think you’ve answered it.
No worries–this is my last word on this topic for a while. Thanks again for responding. Over and out.
putin, the khozayin as he is known in sub circles, doesn’t respect macron and really has no reason to, Turkey is not a neutral party in these negotiations either as Erdogan has influence through the Turkish Diaspora in both France and Germany, of course as I’ve pointed out before Shoigu is perhaps the more utterly incapable figure in Putin’s circle, he suggested this battle plan, that Gerasimov tried to paper over,
ok when did Ukraine take Mariupol when I wasn’t looking, Odessa does seem exceedingly long odds
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg suggested that Ukraine may eventually have to make concessions in the war with Russia.
“At the end of the day, it has to be Ukraine that decides what kind of compromises they’re willing to do, we need to enable them to be in a position where they actually achieve an acceptable result around the negotiating table,” he said.
Stoltenberg said that he was not calling on Ukraine to make concessions now, and added that “real peace” will be achieved when “Ukraine prevails.”
Loved both those songs when I was a kid. Four Tops had a hit with a remake of Walk Away Renee but I prefer the original.
A commenter brought up “soul” in the Open thread 4/4/24 post yesterday—so having used Neo’s The New Neo blog recently as my personal ‘Muse’ I wanted to carry that a tad further.
Throughout history many humans seem to recognize ‘Something’ non-physical within them that has been referred to as: Soul – Spirit – Spark – Light – Divine Light – Self, and etcetera. We humans have difficulty understanding the physical world—the physical Universe, so the non-physical is…is…
Many great Ancient Civilizations have existed, and many of those had a written history. Most all seemed to have had a God or Gods, and even Goddesses (during a time when most women were basically Chattel). Egypt may have been first with just one-God: Aten, the god of Atenism; Yhw & Yahweh were mentioned throughout non-biblical writings, and by the 14th century BC “groups of Edomites and Midianites worshiped Yahweh as their God.” Sumer had a bunch: An, Enki, Enlil, goddess Inanna, etc. Different religions have god/s & goddesses that can be traced back to some of those from ancient Sumer, Egypt, and India’s Dharmic religions or Indic religions. Greeks & Romans seemed to have believed that when it came to gods & goddesses — the more the merrier!
I like to keep the physical & non-physical ‘Thangs simple – as Lieutenant General Russel Honoré (U.S. Army, ret) once shouted at humble me (/sarc) – YOU’RE STUCK ON STUPID! 😉 Here’s the Stuck on Stupid (Long Version).
To continue the thought of keeping the physical & non-physical ‘Thangs simple, I’ll quote from those better at expressing themselves thru written words:
Non-simple – Essays in Zen Buddhism by D. T. Suzuki:
Sorta-simple – The Seven Spiritual Laws of Success by Deepak Chopra:
Simple – Like Two Golden Birds from The Mundaka Upanishad:
‘Think Different’ – inward not outward…
Ex-Macron Advisor Warns of Revolt in France over Green Agenda That Will Dwarf The Yellow Vests — Guillotine time is France again?
Trump Co-defendant Threatens Legal Action Against Fani Willis — did Willis violate the Maryland Wiretap Act?
Lara Trump to Newsmax: Huge Fundraising Month for RNC
Russia getting a Red Sea Port in Eritrea?
Ukraine claims it destroyed at least 6 Russian fighter jets in one of its biggest drone attacks yet — “damaged eight more” and time to send Ukraine some weapons that can reach the Urals!
“Walk Away Renée” was also covered by Orpheus, a late 1960s band from Worcester, Massachusetts:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IApDUnNSt1A&t=1603s
Other Orpheus hits: “Can’t Find the Time”, “Brown Arms in Houston”, “I’ve Never Seen Love Like This”. The band also performed the theme song for the movie “Marlowe” (1969), starring James Garner. Lead singer Bruce Arnold died in 2022:
https://deadline.com/2022/10/bruce-arnold-dies-founder-soft-rock-band-orpheus-was-76-obituary-1235158693/
When I remember growing up in the 1960s, I remember listening to Orpheus. It resembled The Association in its musicianship and vocal harmonies.
That covers quite a bit of terrain, and not all of those features are alike, as you recognize.
My reference to the soul, or rather to the self-admittedly soulless hedonic nihilists of the social left relied on a much narrower and Christian rooted notion of the soul as the presumably eternally enduring nonmaterial personality of the individual which survives physical death: a presumable state of affairs which rather significantly ups the stakes in terms of the long term consequences of worldly interpersonal relations.
Just what exactly members of previous cultures meant by the term soul insofar as they had any clear and distinct notion of it, varied from a vague anima, or share in some imagined life force, to outright disembodied persons.
Modern progressives, if they believe in something they would label with the term “soul” seem in general terms to be referring to something figurative, a stand-in for an ostensible they-know-not-what, rather than the definition that might have been found in the Catholic Baltimore Catechism.
Instead, the average materialist in a “spiritual frame of mind” or mood, would probably affirm some version of affairs along the lines found in this supernaturalistic tale from the 1950’s concerning a Catholuc nun who receives a letter from a deceased friend, who died years earlier and now dwells in Hell.
Of course the more rigorous progressive thinkers will affirm that naturalism allows not even for that, and that all such thinking is as Freud said, the self-consolation of life’s losers.
Now some people are comfortable discussing these matters as they apply to our current interpersonal moral rules, and working out the implications of the various assumptions, whereas others, not equipped to deal with it, sputter in sarcastic indignation, and vigilantly try to police others.
Why, they find the very idea of entertaining these implications of soulless humans as offensive as … bugs that think!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xKk4Cq56d1Y&pp=ygUQQnVncyB0aGF0IHRoaW5rPw%3D%3D
I remember that song and loved it too. I’m sure at the time I was too young and inexperienced with music to appreciate how masterful the vocals were. But I do now.
Fil mentions it, but I always like singers who not only have a nice vibrato, but also really control it precisely. There are some successful singers who have a fairly constant and incessant vibrato, and often when singing a rapid sequence of shorter notes, it all becomes a bit of a mess.
______
As to uncomfortable chord structures or progressions: One of my favorite local musicians is keyboard player Jon Dryden. I’ve referred to his perverted chord styles as “demented.” You can just imagine a somewhat insane phantom of the opera playing his songs. I think Jon teaches music at San Jose State or similar school.
This song is fun. He takes his style to an extreme perhaps. I’m probably one of the few people who enjoy this. (250 youtube views. Ha!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOzb5H4mSA0
The original song by Nirvana
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWmkuH1k7uA
This Dryden version of a Duke Ellington song is a bit more accessible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjxaYNaBOFQ
Meanwhile, Elon sounds a cautionary note for both sides on the front lines of you-know-where. As he says, it’s not necessarily all risk on one side and reward on the other.
To minimize losses and preserve its existence, the underdog should withdraw to defensible positions and negotiate. It’s just that simple.
Karmi – If we send Ukraine weapons that can reach the Urals it would result in American and Western European weapons being used to kill Russians and destroy infrastructure inside of Russia. How do you think that Russia would respond?
Maybe we can thread the needle and cause Russia just enough pain to prompt them to back off against Ukraine, but not enough pain that direct war with NATO begins to look like their least bad option. Maybe not. The current generation of Americans is not particularly good at seeing the world through the eyes of their adversaries.
I don’t see Ukraine hawks acknowedging what a delicate balance we’re trying to strike here, or providing a clear plan for how we can achieve Ukranian victory. My fear is that we already played our best card with the economic sanctions and, now they they have failed to have any apprciable effect on Russia’s war effort, we’re out of good options.
Bauxite:
I wouldn’t care how they responded – hopefully they would stand up and fight instead of rolling over. Russia needs to be told to get out of all the Ukraine, or NATO will increase the aid to include weapons that will force all Russians east of the Urals. NATO would also provide full air support to Ukraine.
NATO & Europe needs a buffer zone between them and the Russians—a buffer zone of all European Russia to the Urals would be perfect…
Karmi: “I wouldn’t care how they responded”. You should.
“…[H]opefully they would stand up and fight instead of rolling over”. Fight NATO? Which basically means, fight the United States?
If I understand you correctly, you are saying that we–NATO and the U.S.–should get directly involved in a war with Russia. A war that would very likely turn into a boots-on-the-ground land war with Russia in Ukraine and in Russia proper.
Out of curiosity: How do you think such a war would turn out? Commenter MKent is on record on this forum saying that the U.S. Army and Air Force would make short work of the Russian armed forces. Is that what you believe?
Snoozo. Like to hear music. Not blowhards with bad haircuts yap about music.
==
1966 was a fertile year for popular music:
==
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?&q=california+dreaming&&mid=01F373D72113D03AA8DA01F373D72113D03AA8DA&&FORM=VRDGAR
Karmi:
I wouldn’t care how they responded…
That’s the spirit!
Given how deep electoral fraud is entrenched here in the states, an intervention from above might be our only hope.
I hadn’t heard this song since I was a child. I had forgotten it even existed. In the first few measures of the song I remembered it and how much I had loved it when I was 12 years old. How is it we can forget something so beautiful? It is an otherworldly, enchanting song. Thanks for bringing it back to me.
Hubert: So you’re fine with decades of the US cowering before Russia — Only sending the support to Ukraine that Russia *ALLOWS* the US to send — threats to start a nuclear war against us?
We are part of NATO – and NATO should tell Russia to get out of the Ukraine (that included Crimea) or we will provide better weapons to Ukraine, and provide them with full air support. If they want war then all they have to do is stay in the Ukraine.
This is a rare opportunity to break Russia from bullying Europe & others…
Concerned Citizen worries about Russia and Ukraine now. Is Concerned Citizen now going to say Ukraine shouldn’t continue attacking Russian oil refineries? Wouldn’t be prudent?
Vlad has been setting the narrative as to what isn’t acceptable in the level of resistance to his aggression and some keep getting played by him. Any more sound bites “boots on the ground,” “NATO expansion,” “NATO is obsolete?”
The USSR is well and truly gone, the cancer on humanity that it was, but Russian imperial aggression goes on and on, ignored by Vlad’s fanboys.
Banned Lizard: Unfortunately, the US could do with a good pruning, but sometimes one needs to call in a strike on their own position. Fuk Russia and the Russians!
Clay:
You’re welcome! The song is indeed unusual as well as beautiful, but was never as popular as the group’s bigger hit, “Walk Away Renee.” The latter also had a hook that won’t quit.
Karmi:
I appreciate your exuberance. You are bang on with the “pruning” idea, and blowing raspberries at our potential savior. He doesn’t seem very excitable, however, so I doubt he can be provoked into doing us the favor. The fraud regime we suffer under is likely the worst possible punishment of all.
California Dreamin’ is on my list of 25 all-time favorites.
To further demonstrate Europe’s resolve and ability, NATO Europe is considering taking over all of the mechanisms for providing military support to Ukraine.
The U.S. and other Western countries are considering transferring to NATO a U.S.-led multinational group that coordinates the shipment of weapons to Ukraine, one of several new proposals that could help maintain the flow of arms to Kyiv under a second Donald Trump presidency.
“During the NATO foreign ministerial meeting in Brussels Wednesday and Thursday, officials are expected to discuss a range of options, including gradually moving the organization — called the Ukraine Defense Contact Group — into the alliance’s control, according to three European officials and a U.S. official with knowledge of the internal deliberations. The goal would be to finalize the move at the NATO leaders’ summit in Washington in July, one of the officials said.”
Congress included in the recently passed National Defense Authorization bill a provision that a president can’t withdraw the US from NATO without approval or the Senate or Congress.
Ostensibly this is a move to “Trump proof” the NATO alliance from a future Trump presidency. Is there anything Trump can’t do?
The provision, by the way, was co-sponsored by Marco Rubio.
Trump-proofing weapons for Ukraine: Allies consider moving arms group into NATO
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/02/allies-consider-moving-ukraine-arms-group-into-nato-to-shield-it-from-trump-00150151
Blinken shows us how morally bankrupt the Biden regime is:
Blinken warns: Israel risks becoming indistinguishable from Hamas if it doesn’t protect Gaza civilians
As a reminder,
Mia Schem: ‘There are no innocent civilians in Gaza’
That remark prompted me to go to YouTube and type in “The Association”.
I had some recollection of sitting on a carpeted family room floor, back to the couch, watching them – among others – on our then new and to me mesmerizing Quasar color console TV. Turns out it was probably 1967. What variety show it was I have no idea. Smothers Brothers, Sonny and Cher, something else.
What I do know, or recall, is that they were seemingly the polite and safe adult approved youth music of the time.
Looking up the YT presentation and reading the coments I was struck again by the fact that we probably can never quite appreciate what stirs or resonates deeply with others. What seemed to me like a pleasant background sound to an exciting because it was in glorious color broadcast, had a profoundly affecting emotional impact on others. This, as almost every third comment seemed to reference it in reminiscence as “our song”, and many of those were by widows and widowers.
Cringe inducing or profoundly affecting: much seems to depend on the context.
@Bauxite
It’s way way too late for that particular barn door, Bauxite. The Ukrainians have been striking targets inside internationally recognized Russian territory for over a year now, to say nothing of the fact that the Kremlin tried to tell us very much that Crimea and Kherson were as Russian as Novgorod the Great.
As well the Ukrainians SHOULD. The Putin regime used its cowardly and illegal cake-and-eat-it-too claim to be “neutral” while being one of the main combatants to fire artillery over the Ukrainian border since the Spring of 2014, counting on that it could do this without retaliation. I utterly oppose this for the same reason I oppose Hezbollah and Hamas being allowed to do this to Israel, and for reasons much like Orwell said.
“The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind.”
How do you think that Russia would respond?
Probably very similar to how the Russian dictatorship has already responded and acted, but moreso. More bombing and rocketing on Ukraine, more attempts to destabilize NATO and friendly countries bordering it and petty attempts to screw Western countries in exchange for things like giving Biden his seal of approval to midwife another Iran Nuclear Steal. The Kremlin lacks the resources and will do to much more than that, and it is trying to vastly expand its standing army after the latest recruiting drives on general terms fell short, and it was told in explicit terms by its Allies like the PRC and neutrals like India to STFU about threats like invading Poland or nuking things.
I mostly oppose giving the Ukrainians weapons to reach the Urals because I view them as mostly unnecessary. Almost all of its military targets and important economic ones are in the Black Sea or relatively near, and it would tie down logistical capacity for other support while not being that helpful and POSSiBLY unduly provocative. But on principle I believe the Ukrainians have every right to strike targets in Kamchatka.
I am going to go out on a limb here and guess that the Russian dictatorship – for all of its many many many horrible traits – is less batshit insane and reckless than the musical chair Japanese juntas that I have so often compared it to. If emargos and failing to lift them or giving vastly more military aid than was given to the KMT were enough to spark a war we’d have seen it happen already, and for all of the many flaws of the Russian kakistocracy it at least provides some degree of stability. Whatever realistic prospects of Russia soloing NATO there were went out the window Pinochet-treatment-of-Commies style by mid 2022 at the latest, and even if the Kremlin did decide to go loud it would expect to do so without much support and with limited ability to impact resources. And the risk of losing what empire it has consolidated like in Transnistria and Northern Georgia and Belarus. Anyone wanna see White-Red-White band partisans going from sabotage to outright Peoples’ War in Belarus? That’s how you get it.
Conversely, if we assume the Russian cabal is as reckless or comparatively so to the Japanese War Socialists of Pearl Harbor and Nanjing infamy, then there is probably little we can do to outright avoid military conflict and we’d be best off fighting them as close to their territory as possible, if only so that if and when they turn the nuclear and WMD keys they have to spread them out thinner. Share the burden. One of the main problems we have faced is seeking to avoid conflict so much we let the enemy grow stronger. Hamas is case in point.
I DON’T think either is actually the case, but as an argument from strategic principles o think it makes sense.
Sure but that goes for multiple viewpoints. And I won’t claim to be perfect at it and I do tend to assume an autistic level of relative consistency or rationality that often doesn’t fit in reality (for instance I assumed Putin was bluffing and would not escalate the war in early 2022, and I assumed the Taliban would not YOLO into attacking Iran and Pakistan).
Fair, though I think a lot of that is due to there being a lack of seeking that delicate balance in the West due to poor statesmanship and inconsistency. Biden has managed to get people to forget his ignominious role in Ukraine for years.
That said that doesn’t mean we can’t. And while I was one of the most visible Ukraine Hawks I am less so than Karmi because I have made clear I place conservative causes in the U.S. over Ukraine and will support Trump on the Election, and that factors in while speaking of purely political or military facets I can think of a few ways.
For one, the Russian Black Sea fleet needs to be destroyed or at least crippled. Ditto its facilities there. They were a major Trump card for the Kremlin in its aggression and are an all but irreplaceable asset for it. So getting rid of them is a win win for us, and would help stabilize the global economy further.
Secondly, the Ukrainians should cut the land bridge over Crimea and either carry out or at least maintain the capacity to interdict logistics to and from Crimea. It was the crown jewel of the occupation but also dependent on connections and inputs from Russian proper and Ukraine, which can be denied.
Thirdly, the Kremlin needs to be made to set forth tolerable terms for negotiation officially and stick to them. None of this chickenshit angling for a truce but not being willing to set solid terms for them or clarify what is meant.
Fair, and I won’t claim I have one. But I can think of a few conceits and general principles.
<blockquote! My fear is that we already played our best card with the economic sanctions
Economic sanctions are powerful but they tend to take time to bite fully. And they were never our best card. Political and military posturing and Intel and weapon aid were all stronger, as the Soviet war in Afghanistan shows.
If you think they have failed to have any appreciable effect on the Russian war effort you need to do more research. There was no magical collapse of the Russian economy overnight but the results were painful. The pre-war cadres of the Russian military and its auxiliaries are basically decimated along with much of its better equipment and they are forced to scrape together green units using older and older kit, and the Russian economy is struggling to make ends meet, especially with a more activist Finance Ministry that has had to manipulate the Ruble and manage more of the economy. That’s having a painful effect, and things like benefits for soldiers and casualties are already popping up in a big way due to how important state entitlements and payments are for the average Russian.
There are no magic bullets but there also doesn’t need to be.
It’s not hard to tell that the record is from the mid-60s. I could hear little bits of singing and music that reminded me of other songs of the era (was there a harpsichord in there?), but I couldn’t quite remember those other songs.
English professors would play a game where they read or showed each other obscure and unknown poems and tried to guess when they were written based on the style. Music majors may do the same thing. “Name That Year” might be a good game show, where contestants try to guess when forgotten popular songs came out based only on what they heard.
And of course, the host is British. He seems like someone from out of the 60s (or the 80s) himself, not a 21st century guy.
@Banned Lizard
This is worth addressing in detail so I’ll deal with this, @ Musk
There’s a lot to unpack here, but it’s worth addressing.
I would say it was a waste of life (in much the same way I disagree with phrasing about “Meat Waves” on the Russian Side unless the troops really are being badly mistreated like the low grade recruits near Bakhmut). It was a cost of life in a gamble. A gamble that was nowhere near as successful as it could have been or was hoped to be, but a rational one to break Russian lines.
I also note that “any fool” like what Musk predicted would have also failed to get the results of Chemin des Dames correct, where the French – demographically weaker and just on the wake of a major defeat in the offensives of 1917 – attacked a larger entrenched enemy with all of those things and beat them. Because when it comes to positional warfare mass is important but nowhere near as much as method. And for what it is worth the Ukrainians made a fair bit of progress – underwhelming and disappointing but still – in chewing into the land corridor and are now entrenching. Meaning the Russians will have to counterattack against similar issues if they want to retake it.
This is where Elon shows he isn’t even the beer and pretzels level military thinker I am.
Entrenching and applying all resources to defense made sense in the first months of the major Russian offensives in 2014-5 and 2022. But it DOESN’T make sense on the whole, and for PRECISELY the reasons Elon mentioned.
A PURELY DEFENSIVE STRATEGY – IN ADDITION TO THE POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS OF THE TERRITORY – DOES NOT REALLY WORK IN A POSITIONAL WAR WHEN YOU ARE OUTNUMBERED AND OUTGUNNED. Because THEN you give the incentive to the enemy and allow them to peel away your positions bit by bit using their superior firepower and numbers.
Once you lose that initiative it is maddeningly difficult to reclaim it and stop the spiral, and the Ukrainians have generally realized that and handled it well. Which is why they’ve generally spent most of the conflicts on the offensive somewhere. Because at least then you’re forcing the enemy to adapt their plans, fight at locations of your choosing with the assets they have on hand, and second guess themselves. Oh yeah while also persuading your public and foreign backers that you aren’t just going to walk over and get pounded.
This is literally Clausewitz 101.
“It has been already observed in a general way that the defensive is easier than the offensive; but as the defensive has a negative object, that of preserving, and the offensive a positive object that of conquering, and as the latter increases our own means of carrying on war,…”
That doesn’t mean I’m in favor of the Ukrainian army yoloing to Moscow, let alone the US or France joining in (especially under Biden and Macron). But it does that mean that if you want to lose the war by getting pounded to a pulp, going purely on the defensive is a stellar way to do that and if Marshal Musk’s advice was given, Kherson would still be under Russian occupation, the Black Sea would be more of a Russian lake, and the Black Sea Fleet capable of conducting a Tonnage War at its leisure.
Dubious at best given Russian demographic advantage and the issues I’ve noted. There’s a reason the Ukrainians and others wouldn’t want the formation of durable client dictatorships inside their territory like Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia.
NOT THE LEAST BECAUSE THEY WOULD CONTINUE TO DISRUPT INTERNAL AND INTERNATIONAL UKRAINIAN DIPLOMACY AND THINGS LIKE EU OR NATO MEMBERSHIP, AND WOULD SERVE AS SPRINGBOARDS FROM WHICH TO CONQUER THE REST OF UKRAINE EVENTUALLY.
This is not rocket science. Indeed this is quite literally how the Tsars ended the great wars of the Deluge with hegemony over only one bank of the Dnieper in Ukraine and ended the century about 30 years later in control of both. The formation of Manchukuo and a bunch of others gave the Japanese juntas leverage to go after the rest of China, the the Kremlin’s had mouthpieces openly talking of linking up with Transnistria and even militarily intervening to overthrow the Moldovan government, Nazi annexation of Austria allowed it to leverage an envelopment of Czechoslovakia, the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia into puppet or allied states gave it the chance to attack Finland on all sides, etc etc etc.
I can cite more, but you get the idea.
The only way this deal makes sense from the Ukrainian POV is if the Kremlin is forced to abide solidly by the peace in exchange for territorial annexations. AND CONSIDERING THIS WAR STARTED BECAUSE THE KREMLIN DUMPSTERED THE LAST SET OF GUARENTEES, I cannot fault Kyiv (or anyone else) for questioning the wisdom of that.
….which is precisely why the Ukrainians and others like myself are not interested in this right now. Especially given how there is LITERALLY NO FREAKING GUARANTEE the Kremlin will not try and take all of Ukraine in a generation or two later. Or even next year.
This is simply fucking bullshit and shows Musk has been huffing something. And moreover, this would be false EVEN IF the Russians do eventually reach the Dnieper and consolidate.
(PS: The Dnieper is not “too tough to overcome.” It IS Tough to overcome, but both sides have done it at various points in the war, and the Ukrainians flat out have done it in the lower bends, as have other armies through history).
The fact is, the Kremlin HAS NOT enjoyed consistent advantages or territorial gaining the more the war has gone on. Indeed it has generally waxed and waned, with phases of the war starting with truly massive offensives and significant land gains, only for those to be petered out and slowly eaten up by more gradual but steady Ukrainian counterattacks in the face of smaller and less successful but more costly Russian casualties. This is what we saw from 2014 to 2021. This is what we saw from 2022 to now.
The Kremlin actively holds less territory in Ukraine than it did in 2023, and it held less territory at the end of 2023 than at the start. Because there is no more magical “Russia Stronk” victory timer gradually giving Russia more and more territory for no reason, any more than there is a magical “Ukraine Stronk.”
Territorial control depends on things like material and manpower considerations, morale, and the ability to win the loyalty of the locals. And one of the things that gets overlooked has been the collapse in credibility of the Donbaschukuo governments and the waning enthusiasm in Crimea for coming “Home to Russia.”
Moreover, Odessa was always going to be a tough nut to crack and with the losses to the Black Sea Fleet it is probably not practical. The only avenues are amphibious assault (which would’ve been tough even with the Moskva but which now is downright crazy), fighting overland (over the territory Ukraine has forced the Kremlin to evacuate from and then some) to it, or some mixture of both (which is probably the easiest to succeed but the hardest to get the preconditions for).
Which is another reason I do not take Musk very seriously on this issue at all. See the issue of asphyxiation that popped up with Interwar Poland and the peril a Russian held Sevastopol ultimately had not only to Crimea but also to the rest of Ukraine.
HELL MUSK, YOU QUITE LITERALLY IN THIS THREAD CLAIMED THAT ODESSA WOULD FALL IF THE WAR WENT ON. IN WHAT WORLD IS THIS NOT A GREAT CAUTIONARY STORY TO ANYONE ABOUT THE RISKS OF ALLOWING RUSSIA TO CONSOLIDATE ITS OCCUPATION AND FURTHER THREATEN IT?
I recommend Musk re-read Minsk I and II and the violations thereof and kindly go fuck off to study history and remedial military tactics more.
Agreed, which is why in spite of being a resident Ukraine hawk I do not go as far as Karmi. I have no interest in a World War, and indeed one of the reasons I condemn Putin and his ilk is for making this more likely.
No, no it is not Banned Lizard.
And this would be easy to prove by simply looking at how that worked out for the Baltic States in the 1920s, and Czechoslovakia in 1938-39.
How has it worked out for Moldova and Georgia?
There is a very simple matter of trust and credibility. Who on Earth is going to trust that Putin will keep his word if given this kind of ceasefire? Why would Ukraine consent to it? Why would the US believe the Kremlin will stick to it?
Agreed there, sadly. Also why while I will argue passionately about Ukraine, it is not my main concern. One of them maybe, but I am an America Firster.
I disagree with Karmi plenty, but why would I believe Putin is even our “potential savior”? The man has openly aligned with Islamists and the CCP. He is financing Watermelon Green-Reds to try and help us commit economic and ecological suicide.
He’s plenty excitable and at least his lieutenants want us to believe that given their blather about nuking Ukraine and/or Poland and invading Moldova. I don’t think most of them are honestly there.
You are far too generous. As bad as the situation is now, it can get worse. A One Party State Dem one being official would be worse. Biden or his puppet masters with emergency powers would be worse. And frankly a Kremlin style system, a CCP inspired regime, or an Islamist Theocracy would be worse.
Karmi: I would not be fine with decades of the U.S. cowering before Russia, if that is what we had been doing. I think our policy towards Russia has been foolishly inconsistent and unwisely provocative since the 1990s at least, but it hasn’t involved a lot of cowering. Unless you want to characterize Hillary Clinton’s “reset” button and Obama’s hot-mic promise of post-election “flexibility” to Medvedev as cowering. I regard them as typically inept and ill-advised.
I don’t recall Trump asking for Russia’s permission before pink-misting its mercenaries in Syria, neutering its leverage over other countries by boosting U.S. energy production, or sending Javelin missiles to Ukraine. As for NATO telling Russia to get out of Ukraine or else, that has been done, repeatedly. It hasn’t had the desired effect.
Hence my questions to you. I asked them because I’m honestly interested in your answers–and MKent’s. You seem to be keen on going to war with Russia. How do you think that would go?
By the way, I worked at a U.S. broadcasting establishment during the last decade of the Cold War, writing research articles on Soviet social problems and their war in Afghanistan. I like to think that I and my colleagues on the broadcasting side of the house played a small part in bringing about the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the USSR. Vaclav Havel seemed to think we did. I mention this by way of demonstrating my anti-totalitarian credentials. Yours?
@Karmi
I do. It’s good form to care about how one’s enemies respond, especially in a risky state there.
“Hopefully”?
Do you have any friends or loved ones in the military or formerly there? I have no reason to want a hot war beyond what is necessary, especially under the Brandon Regime, and I certainly don’t want it to be a long and hard one. Leaving aside the damage it would do to us, our allies, and Ukraine, destroying or crippling Russia would probably help create a vacuum into which the Islamists and the PRC would seep further.
If that’s necessary, so be it. But it isn’t necessary.
It has been. It is not very interested in being told.
What the fuck?
It’s telling that the prospect of STARTING A GODDAMN WORLD WAR by trying to get as many NATO member states into a war of choice (which for NATO it is even if not for Ukraine) is the less egregious here.
“Force all Russians East of the Urals””?
DO YOU KNOW WHAT THE HELL THAT IS?!? THAT IS ETHNIC CLEANSING, AND LIKELY GENOCIDE. AKA, SOME OF THE THINGS THE KREMLIN HAS BEEN DOING IN GEORGIA AND OCCUPIED PARTS OF UKRAINE, BUT ON A MUCH, MUCH MORE LIMITED SCALE THAN THIS.
I WILL HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO PART IN THIS.
On moral level level alone, let alone a pragmatic one.
PS: Well done giving the Kremlin’s propagandists ammunition to claim NATO is really Nazi and imitating Hitler’s imaginary policy of forcing the Soviets East of the Ark-Ast Line.
A “buffer zone between them and the Russians” is pretty much Belarus and Ukraine. And as for “perfect”? There is no perfect in the mortal world, and even if you did get what you wanted there would become problems with it, such as the risk of a PRC in control of Siberia going Westwards.
No I am not. Indeed, the appeasement of Kremlin BS has been something I have consistently condemned, and I have pointed out that it has gone on far longer and more universally than any political pundits want to claim. I have also been one of those advocating that – contra Bauxite and co – the US continue sending weapons and even escalate that and blow the Kremlin’s threats a raspberry (if not even punish them for that).
But there’s a hell of a gap between my advocacy of a strong, proud, and defiantly assertive stance towards the Kremlin and limiting both appeasement and concessions while trying to destroy the Kremlin’s occupation empire in Eastern Europe, and rushing into a World War with Russia under Biden.
I agree with the first half of that, and that is why NATO members generally have done so. But “Full Air Support”? While we struggle to deal with the Russiabaiting smear and a descending dystopia at home? No.
Indeed, and they already are. Which is why I advocate bleeding them out and inflicting pain to push them back.
And if we absolutely HAVE to force them out by military action by NATO and other Western Allies, CAN WE KINDLY HOLD OFF ON THAT UNTIL AFTER WE’VE DEALT WITH THE BRANDON REGIME AND OTHER EXISTENTIAL THREATS AT HOME?
I agree. But it’s a rare opportunity in part because it’s an incredibly costly war of aggression by the Kremlin in its “near abroad” against the most powerful of its neighbors, in a war where the “We are under threat from Nazi NATO, Great Patriotic War 3” narrative is falling rather fallow. This is where the pressure cooker approach helps, in much the same way that for all of the problems our Afghan policy had sending Stingers to shoot down Soviet Air Force was more effective than sending the entire USAF to do so would have been.
Agreed, but key emphasis on the NEEDS TO.
We do not need to Yet, or if we do then we would be better of dealing with it without the complexity of being a direct combatant in a major peer on peer war.
My contempt for the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, and his ilk should speak for itself in my posts. I have condemned the Kremlin’s antics for years, and prior to your appearance I was noted as being perhaps the arch anti-Putin Hawk on this thread. I can speak at great length about Russian crimes and pathologies not just under the current regime but before.
But I have no interest in trying to become the strawman boogeyman Putin and co claim we are. I have no interest in a new Hunger Plan or Barbarossa to force hundreds of millions of Russians East of a new A-A Line, and I certainly do not trust Biden and Obama with the power needed to wage a hot war.
Leaders come and go much more readily than nations and people, and frankly it would be better for all that the time comes that there is a Russia without Tsars, be they White, Red, Grey, or Black Hundredist. That includes for Ukraine, given the risks of what the alternatives are.
That does not mean I am an appeaser, it does not mean I do not favor Ukraine fighting until it has ejected all Russian forces from Ukraine at possible, and it does not even mean I will completely rule out Allied forces doing so later if absolutely necessary. But it does not a genocidaire or racist.
Have been using LibreOffice for 5-6 years now—full-time for the past 2-3 years.
Have a license for MS Office Home & Student 2019 (??) on some test computers, but have LibreOffice on them also. Have built so many computers over the years that I got tired of renewing a license on new builds because of what MS put me thru each time. Started trying LibreOffice (LO) – and some other free open source suites, and ended up liking LibreOffice (LO) the most out of that open source group.
I wouldn’t recommend LO over Office for businesses & pros, but it is great for students, kids computers, your home computer, etc. MS made a change in Office somewhere around 2015 +- and I didn’t care for the new look and ‘Feel’. That’s the reason I barely use the 2019 single license versions that I now have.
LO isn’t as good MS Office, but a basic word processor user like me barely notices—but I do notice at times. If you are finding MS Office to be too expensive, then give LO a try.
Turtler: Jeez…relax dude.
Anyway, I’ve moved on from that topic in this thread.
Did love the job in the Turtler on April 5, 2024 at 2:58 pm said: @Bauxite comment tho…
turtler:
The ” do you have any family or friends in the US military” argument is weak.
@om
It is weak in isolation, but it is still existent. Which is why I did not use it in isolation.
@Karmi
Fair, but I could say the same to you.
I try.
Fil from Wings of Pegasus and Rick Beato are two of the best inside music YouTube channels. Fil’s battle against pitch correction and analysis of vocals is legendary.
turtler:
It is weak because it is much the same as a feminist abortion deovtee insisting that XY humans have nothing to say to XX humans about abortion. Not sure how the XY and XX argument can be held in our new trans understanding of biology, morality, and life the universe and everything …..
@om
No, it is not. I was not saying that those without friends or loved ones in the service or formerly in the service have NOTHING To say. Indeed, some of them say much more sensible things than those that are in the service or have been. See: Milley.
However, I was pointing out that it is easy to chest thump online about a war and hoping the enemy great power fights, with the damage that would do all around.
Turtler: Stop yelling.
Maybe take a knee or sit out the next few plays.
Turtler on April 5, 2024 at 3:49 pm said:
OK…read it all (am a slow reader). I also don’t care if you agree or disagree. 😉
Great points throughout!!!
Great commenters on this blog—many are absolutely amazing. Far beyond my educational skills—much more so than on any other blog or board I have ever been on. Thanks to Neo for not banning humble me…yet!
@IrishOtter49
I could, but Colin Kapernick is not a role model I intend to. I may have all capsed or bolded a bit too much, but what is done is done and I think the points were worth hammering home.
A few short comments before I head back outside to get some raking done before dark…
”Commenter MKent is on record on this forum saying that the U.S. Army and Air Force would make short work of the Russian armed forces.”
So my blog comments haven’t been just pissing into the wind! It’s gratifying to know that. Thanks.
But for the record, I think the U. S. Air Force (with some help from the U. S. Navy) would make short work of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. I don’t think the U. S. Army would have to get involved. Why would they? Ukraine has plenty of troops under arms to occupy their own territory.
”NATO & Europe needs a buffer zone between them and the Russians—a buffer zone of all European Russia to the Urals would be perfect…”
This is how we get ourselves nuked. Russian threats of using nukes against France, the UK, and the US are (mostly) just blather. Russia is not going to nuke a nuclear power because it sent Ukraine more Bradleys, Storm Shadows, or ATACMS. It will, however, bring out the nukes if one attempts to occupy Moscow or St. Petersburg.
But comments like this illustrate why America must not only remain in NATO but lead it. The European powers have too much history for anyone to trust them for their own security. Only America has both the power and the principles to lead a large multi-national force and have it be trusted as a defensive alliance.
”…we already played our best card with the economic sanctions and, now they they have failed to have any apprciable effect on Russia’s war effort.”
This is not true. The sanctions have had a very large effect on Russia’s ability to make war — an effect the Russians obviously did not foresee. Holes need to be plugged, for sure, but the effect is a strong one.
More later, if Turtler doesn’t use up all of the electrons…
I am disappointed that this thread was so hijacked by comments on Ukraine. I was expecting (and hoping for) mostly comments on “Pretty Ballerina”.
Basherte:
“Open thread” means open to wherever people take it.
It ain’t hijacking (that would be an oxymoron in an Open thread). Sads?
“Russia is not going to nuke a nuclear power because it sent Ukraine more Bradleys, Storm Shadows, or ATACMS. It will, however, bring out the nukes if one attempts to occupy Moscow or St. Petersburg.
America must not only remain in NATO but lead it. The European powers have too much history for anyone to trust them for their own security. Only America has both the power and the principles to lead a large multi-national force and have it be trusted as a defensive alliance.” -mkent
Your comment is absurd, mkent. No one in Europe is making that kind of strategic argument that NATO needs to drive Russia back.
om, if you have a family member called on to fight a war, you have an obligation to make damn sure the war is absolutely necessary and its objectives and exit point are clearly defined. The cost is too high to do otherwise.
MKent: Pissing into the wind? Hardly. I always read your comments and wish you would weigh in more often. I’ll try to respond to your take on the Ukraine war, the U.S., and NATO tomorrow.
Basherte: Yes, Ukraine tends to suck all the oxygen out of the comment space, which is why some commenters avoid uttering the country’s name and resort to code words instead (like using “the Scottish play” for Macbeth). In my defense, I did comment on the music angle first.
DNW: Orpheus described itself as a “soft rock” group, which fits. I’d put The Association in the same category, along with The Stone Poneys, The Mamas & the Papas, The Beach Boys, and lesser groups (e.g. The Youngbloods). My tastes tended a little harder at the time–I liked Cream, the Stones, and Hendrix–but in retrospect I’ve realized how much of the soundtrack of those years was supplied by the softer groups. It wasn’t just muzak.
Brain E:
They are adults. They will do what they will. No matter what you take as your damned obligation.
Objectives, exit points, and the signs on the door to the Pottery Barn? Any more wisdom given Vlad’s behavior since 2008?
‘NATO is obsolete and has outlived its utility since the USSR has disappeared’ I recall you recently opined. Funny that Europe (Finland, Sweden, and others living closer to your fave, The Russian Federation) mostly does not share your assessment. I wonder why. Then again we in Eastern Washington mostly have to deal with tyrants in Olympia not Moscow (the other one, not in Idaho).
Your comment is absurd as usual Brain E?
Our man, RFK Jr:
Democrats unite against RFK Jr
Forget the optics. They’re panicked and wetting their pants.
Speaking of obligations, blue cities should prepare to once again do their humanitarian duty:
‘Like the End of Times’: ‘Apocalyptic Scenario’ in Haiti May Fuel Mass Exodus To the US
Elements of a black swan present as follows:
1) The border remains wide open.
2) Haiti’s reputation for cannibalism is not a myth.
3) Densely populated blue cities are lightly armed compared to rural areas.
4) Liberal communities will welcome Haitians with open arms… and be eaten.
om, I guess you’ve never had a son riding around waiting to get shot at so he could shoot back? For what? A war that could never be won.
I imagine as long as the Europeans can suckle off the American teat, they’ll find NATO useful.
Re: Pretty Ballerina
I was impressed by his pitch analysis that the Left Banke singer was a pro hitting the notes.
I thought those guys were good.
Unfortunately, two-hit wonders.
We had a good discussion about them someways back.
Brain E:
So your boys fighting for Vlad will dictate ROE for NATO forces if that ever comes to pass?
IIRC the Ruskies do wear uniforms even if they don’t follow agreed principles for dealing with civilians and captured Ukrainians. So the ROEs that apply to insurgents and such won’t apply, except in your fever dreams.
Your Donbas and Luhansk “freedom” fighters (2014-2022) may not have been a recognized army. That isn’t the case now,
You might want to revisit the whole concept of XX humans saying XY humans can’t speak to abortion. Weak tea Brain E.
Nostradomus speaks. The Cold War could never be won. WWI wasn’t our concern, neither was WWII in Europe. Any other grand historical wisdom to share? Casting back to the Civil War, The Copperheads said that the South couldn’t be defeated either IIRC.
Any more grand strategery or history you need to share.
Your comments are absurd, Brain E?
Today’s earthquake made for an exciting half-minute in the office! And conversation afterward.
I sure loved “The Left Banke” back in the day. There was some legal problem and their first album became an expensive collector’s item. Mine was a pirate I got from a used record store in Cambridge.
They were another 60s group which lost their footing in the 70s, though they tried.
Maybe it’s not so hard to catch the lightning once or twice, but long-term it’s a much harder game.
huxley:
I’m in complete agreement that long-term is a much harder game.
But I think it’s pretty hard to “catch the lightening” even once in a song as wonderful as “Walk Away Renee.” That hook is one of the catchiest and hookiest in pop music history.
“The Left Banke” was labeled “baroque pop,” which I guess means baroque arrangements and a harpsichord.
Can you imagine such a fragile synthesis surviving in pop today?
neo;
I’m prone to my enthusiasms, so I try to rein in my hyperbolic instincts, but sure, “Walk Away Renee” was from another plane of songwriting.
Thanks for the kind words, Hubert. I’ll try to live up to them.
”No one in Europe is making that kind of strategic argument that NATO needs to drive Russia back.”
Don’t look now, but Europe is preparing for war. Against Russia. If you get your wish and Russia breaks through the Ukrainian lines, World War III is on, and then only the gods of the copybook headings know how it will end. I doubt either of us, if we survive, will be happy with the outcome.
For those of you not following what’s going on, the YouTuber Artur Rehi gives a decent summary of the situation here.
I don’t really follow him — merely check in on him from time to time — but he does seem to have a handle on the situation from an Eastern European perspective. He’s an infantryman who has been on the ground in Ukraine and has met with (and gone shooting with) the troops there. He’s also Estonian and frequently gives his country’s opinions on Russia and the reasons for them (hint: they don’t much like Russia).
This video starts with five minutes of a rather sentimental visit of a Ukrainian farm boy by some of their troops. It makes a point, but not the one I’m trying to highlight. For that watch the rest of the video.
If anyone thinks Trump or any American is going to make the Ukrainians accept their genocide, you really need to get a cluebat and hit yourself over the head with it. The world is a big place, and most things that happen in it happen for reasons that have nothing to do with domestic American politics.
This war is one of them. It has nothing to do with Trump, Biden, or any other American. America can influence the results, yes, but the war won’t go away if America walks away from it. Instead it will get bigger, deadlier, and could very well spiral into hell.
Don’t look now, but Europe is preparing for war. Against Russia.
mkent:
That’s my read. Not without reason.
I’d rather it wasn’t on the menu and I’d rather not have to make a choice.
You can’t always get what you want.
mkent:
I appreciate your consistent and realistic coments on the Russian conquest of Ukraine. The isolationists and deluded “realists” seem not to care about the immediate or long term consequences of Russian aggression.
Are they ahistorical, or immune to cause and effect, or just useful idiots?
Karmi, “did Willis violate the Maryland Wiretap Act?”
IIRC, there was a similar incident of her recording the Trump et al. conversation seeking 11K votes or something, while she was in Florida on vacation? This potentially was a violation of FL law, except maybe she has a defense as a “law enforcement” person at that time??
This is an article on the negotiations Russia and Ukraine were engaged in on late March 2022, from a Ukrainian perspective. These were the talks that Boris Johnson derailed with promises of massive sanctions and military aid.
No Peace, No Guarantees. Istanbul Ukraine-Russia War Talks Details and Results
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2022/03/30/7136915/
I listened to MN Cong. Dean Phillips, who challenged Biden, on Jordan Peterson’s show. Phillips, who grew up with grandmom Dear Abby and grandaunt Ann Landers, explained why he’s a Dem. It’s because Hubert Humphrey gave a speech in 1948 denouncing antisemitism.
Phillips’ district shares a boundary with that of Ilhan Omar, well noted for antisemitic remarks.
I was disappointed that Peterson did not bring up the current battle in Gaza. I suspect they had agreed beforehand that the topic wouldn’t be discussed. No doubt it is a source of great cognitive dissonance for Phillips.
The congressman sounds like many on the center left. He’s been living in a leftist bubble so long that he still believes in many of the anti-Trump hoaxes.
People up thread talking about how Russia would respond puts me in a mind when I was working certain tasking in the Navy:
“When you see those MIRVs comin’ down through the sky just bend over and kiss your dead ass goodbye.”
MIRV=Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles
Gordon Scott, thanks for that story about Dean Philips. One of his cousins is Scott Johnson, at Power Line. Must be another change story there.
Hubert: sorry about not getting back to you yesterday – had wanted to move on from the discussion, but then Turtler tweaked my attention.
Any cowering is way too much IMHO, but we will agree to just disagree on that.
“keen” on going to war? If someone walks up to you and kicks your dog into the street—then tells you that he will shoot the dog & you the next time—what do you do?
Russia is the one starting wars > threatening more wars > threatening nuclear attacks, so it seems that Russia is the one who is “keen” for war and not me. You have probably never been to prison or had a job to ‘Subdue‘ people whilst using only the necessary force required to subdue them – so maybe my points don’t come across as I intend them—verbal conversation isn’t my strong suit…so to speak.
I don’t believe that anyone who gives me the evil eye should be allowed to keep that eye.
Small parts are a *BIG* part of most success, IMHO, so I agree with Vaclav Havel…
Since this is an open thread and in case Hubert didn’t see this on Monday:
The Last Stand of IJN Takao – Guns vs Godzilla (April 1st) – Drachinifel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtOstlmOc98
om:
Kim Jong Un gets a bad rap and no credit for holding back Godzilla…
So long story short i was in the hospital for the last three days thats why my sparkling commentary was so sparse
Om: Thanks, missed that. The Takao class (Takao, Atago, Maya, and Chokai) were great ships. Way ahead of their time.
MKent and Karmi: Got some stuff to do this morning (including mailing off my tribute to Uncle Sam); will respond later.
Miguel: Welcome back. I was wondering where the Finnegans Wake stuff had gone (I keed!). Hope you’re doing OK now. I suspect the commentariat on this forum are in a similar age cohort–what a friend calls “The Senior Organ Recital” group.
Miguel cervantes – had wondered & welcome back.
Miguel cervantes, I hope are recovering well and will stay out of the hospital!
Thanks all
Phillips, who grew up with grandmom Dear Abby and grandaunt Ann Landers
==
His grandfather lived and worked several places, Minneapolis among them; that’s where his father settled and spent his life. Ann Landers’ husband moved his family to Chicago in 1955, and she remained there the rest of her life; Abby never lived there. The two sisters spent > 15 years not on speaking terms and Ann Landers’ daughter launched vitriolic public attacks on Abby’s daughter after Ann died. She also issued denunciations of Abby over disputes between the sisters > 35 years in the past; Abby was too demented by that point to reply and her husband and children decided to let it ride.
==
Dean Phillips’ father is profiled here:
==
https://www.startribune.com/liquor-tycoon-was-known-for-philanthropy/119532504/
Miguel:
Good for you!
“Don’t look now, but Europe is preparing for war. Against Russia. If you get your wish and Russia breaks through the Ukrainian lines, World War III is on” -mkent
I listened to the vlogger you mentioned, and while entertaining, I hope you have more reliable sources to make the claim you are making.
Is Germany part of Europe?
From what I’ve read, Macron has suggested 2,000 French troops if, IF Russia were to make a move to Odessa. That’s unlikely, since any assault from the south would be incredibly difficult, and with the Ukrainian defense of Kherson, there is no access without going through Zaporizhzhia.
I see Macron’s and other European nations posturing is a threat to increase Ukraine’s bargaining position at any settlement. Any European troops would likely be used in logistical positions, freeing up Ukrainians to fight at the front lines.
Another unknown, is can Ukraine keep providing fresh troops. They did lower the age for conscription from 27 to 25.
It is encouraging that Europe is stepping up to provide for their defense.
I hope Brain E proves to be more reliable in the …….. whatever.
Vlad attacking Odessa and “liberating” all of Moldova is rather difficult since Russia no longer has a functional Black Sea Fleet. But Brain E has downplaid that for months now.
So why exactly does Russia need Sevastapol or the Kirch Straits Bridge (the dread Dead Bridge Standing)? Things happen in war.
Brian E:
Conscription age for Russia is 18 thru 30 years old (recently raised from 27 to 30).
Ukraine’s is unusual, IMHO, and minimum age is now 25—tho a quick search didn’t provide what max age is.
“The average soldier’s age on both sides is over 40, military analysts say.”
”Vlad attacking Odessa and ‘liberating’ all of Moldova is rather difficult since Russia no longer has a functional Black Sea Fleet.”
That will make it interesting. What will make it even more interesting is if Russia breaks through the Ukrainian lines and then Moldova and Romania decide to merge, what with Romania being a NATO member and all. Very interesting indeed.
I’ve done a deep dive into the Russian and Ukrainian entanglements going back as far as khelmenitsky, the Cossack who was able to keep his head, and the two heads of the Dnieper together,
Art Deco: Ah, so the Phillips brand of various liquors is related to them?
Interesting about Ann and Abby. I read once that leadership in the ACLU was an example of Jewish family politics. This was back when ACLU stood for something.
Kate: I had no idea he and Scott Johnson were related, and I’ve followed Powerline for many years.
Phillips struck me as a decent guy, who happens to be wrong about some stuff. That was what I grew up with; you might know a neighbor’s politics, but you never brought up politics, and you worked with him to get the youth baseball backstop upgraded and reinforced.
MKent: “But for the record, I think the U. S. Air Force (with some help from the U. S. Navy) would make short work of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine.” You sound like someone who has professional knowledge of U.S. military capabilities and U.S. military production capacity. If you say that the U.S. Air Force could defeat Russia’s air defense systems and destroy the Russian forces in Ukraine, I’ll take your word for it. But if we pull the trigger (and it’s not clear that you’re saying we should), we’d be at war with Russia. What then? How do you think they’d respond to the destruction of their forces in Ukraine at our–and NATO’s–hands? Might they strike back there, or elsewhere? I think they would. Again: what then? Do you think this country is ready for a full-fledged war–a world war–with a peer competitor and its probable allies, even allies of convenience? I take it you do. I don’t.
“But comments like this illustrate why America must not only remain in NATO but lead it. The European powers have too much history for anyone to trust them for their own security. Only America has both the power and the principles to lead a large multi-national force and have it be trusted as a defensive alliance.” We used to. We don’t any more. Sorry, but we can’t be responsible for security in Europe in perpetuity. We can’t even secure our own country’s borders. I’m with Huxley and Turtler on this: I hope Ukraine can preserve its independence from Russia, but my country takes precedence.
“Don’t look now, but Europe is preparing for war. Against Russia.” Well, good for Europe. Preparing for war against Russia seems like a prudent thing for Europe to do. Eighty years after WWII and thirty-five years after the Cold War, I’d say it’s about time. Europe has big, wealthy countries with well-developed industrial infrastructure. I know; I lived there. They can defend themselves; they should defend themselves. That’s precisely Artur Rehi’s point.
Karmi: Your prison-yard analogy–of somebody kicking our dog and threatening further bodily harm to the dog and to us–actually works better with Iran than with Russia. Iran occupied our embassy in Tehran. Iran killed over 240 Marines in Beirut. Iran has been behind other acts of mayhem and terrorism against the United States and its people. Iran has been giving us the evil eye for forty-five years. Not only with impunity, but with apologies and pallets of cash–from us! You want an example of “cowering”? Look there. BTW: you still haven’t answered my question about how you think a war with Russia would play out.
Hubert:
Seriously!?! The Shah was overthrown in 1979. Russia was giving us the evil eye long before that. However, Iran also deserves to be seriously thrashed, e.g. wipe out it’s nuclear capability, some military sites & barracks, and entire navy.
You sound like a liberal w/ repeating questions. If I don’t answer a question – then don’t behave like a liberal and repeat it to me again.
“Vlad attacking Odessa and “liberating” all of Moldova is rather difficult since Russia no longer has a functional Black Sea Fleet.”
That’s not why they haven’t attacked Odessa, but the loss of landing craft makes it even less likely.
Here is an analysis by the US Naval Institute from 2022 listing several reasons why an amphibious landing assault would be likely disastrous for Russia.
Topography– high cliffs without much maneuvering ability. The areas with beaches suitable for landings open to urban areas which would leave the landing force vulnerable to attack.
Even in 2022, Russia had a marginal number of landing craft which would have required a continuous landing of the craft they had over days to bring enough men and armament to mount an invasion of such a large city. Any mechanical breakdowns would be disastrous. They would need continuous air support. Russia hasn’t been able to establish air superiority to any extent.
Their conclusion:
Russia–Ukraine: Putin’s Amphibious Options Are Limited
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/january/russia-ukraine-putins-amphibious-options-are-limited
”But if we pull the trigger (and it’s not clear that you’re saying we should), we’d be at war with Russia.”
You are correct. I am not saying we should. It would be a dicey proposition with even the best people in charge. With either Trump or whoever is calling the shots in a Biden administration? Yikes! It’s downright terrifying.
”How do you think they’d respond to the destruction of their forces in Ukraine at our–and NATO’s–hands?”
Most likely they’d conduct a full mobilization, draw every available Soviet-era weapon out of storage, and send it all into Ukraine and other targets of opportunity. I do not think they would resort to nuclear weapons unless they thought the heart of Russia (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Siberia) was at risk.
”We used to. [have the trust to lead a multi-national alliance] We don’t any more.”
We still do, and we are the only ones who do. A recent example: Remember a few years ago when Trump offered to buy Greenland from Denmark? Neither Denmark nor Greenland were interested, and the discussion ended there. After the offer was declined, did anyone here, in Greenland, in Denmark, or even in Russia believe we’d take Greenland by force? It wouldn’t even be that hard — we already have a military base there.
Of course not. Even the idea of it sounds ridiculous. For which other hegemon in all of history could you say that? None, probably. But that’s why we’ve been able to mostly keep the peace for 75 years by maintaining military bases in something close to 100 countries. Everyone, friend and foe alike, understands that keeping the peace, not conquest, is why we’re there.
Now, look at it from Russia’s perspective. Would you rather have an American-led NATO on your western border or a French-led NATO? Or a German-led NATO? Or a Polish, Swedish, or Finnish-led NATO? (Note for the historically challenged: Russia has been at war with each of these countries.)
Ideally you’d want no NATO at all so you could pick off your neighbors one by one. But barring that, you’d want an American-led NATO, because at least then you wouldn’t have to worry about being conquered from the west.
I wasn’t clear in my original comment, but this is why I say that America must lead NATO. No one would trust anyone else with that much power.
mkent,
Apparently there was a conversation between French FM and Russia FM in the last day or two.
The Duran talks about the readout from the call. French say they talked about ISIS-K. Russia says they talked about a freeze in Ukraine.
Which side do you believe?
Now it is possible Macron was merely giving the Russians a chance to return to Istanbul before committing French troops to Ukraine. That would certainly give your position credence that France has decided it does have an appetite for war. That would mark a huge change in position though, since France has been one of the stingiest European countries to date in providing aid to Ukraine.
France wants conflict freeze. Russia said NO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-rEeCcngAs
More on the call between French FM and Russia.
The ‘menacing’ call with Russia that’s turning into a diplomatic headache for France
https://www.politico.eu/article/phone-call-russia-france-lecornu-shoigu-diplomatic-headache-terror-attack-moscow/
mkent:
It’s a rare opportunity to gain an Ally like Ukraine. NATO should be coming together much quicker, prepping to add Ukraine into NATO, and in the meanwhile—start authorizing much more weaponry for Ukraine.
Ukraine has the right to destroy all means of electricity in any Russian city they want to – including at least Moscow & St. Petersburg. NATO needs to be providing the means to do so, IMHO.
If Russia wants to conduct a full mobilization and start a war with NATO—because of those means – then so be it. It would be quite foolish on Russia’s part to do so – or to resort to nuclear war, but it is long past the time to break Russia of attacking neighbors and threatening others.
MKent: Thanks. I agree that war with Russia would be a dicey proposition. It would have been a dicey proposition when we were at our peak of military power and influence in the world. Even dicier now. That’s why I think we should avoid it if possible.
Your comments sent me back to the history books. By my count, there have been five countries that defeated or fought Russia/USSR to a draw in the past 120 years: Japan (1904-1905); Wilhelmine Germany (1914-1918); Poland (1919-1920, with French aid); Finland (1939-1940 and 1941-1944); and Afghanistan (1979-1989). Depending on your POV, you could throw in Estonia and Latvia in 1918-1920 or the border clashes on the Ussuri River with the PRC in the late 1960s. Finland lost territory but preserved its independence. That may be the best scenario on offer for Ukraine.
Karmi: That’s the point. Iran has been dissing and inflicting human and material damage on us for a very long time. As for my question about war with Russia, I think you’ve answered it.
No worries–this is my last word on this topic for a while. Thanks again for responding. Over and out.
putin, the khozayin as he is known in sub circles, doesn’t respect macron and really has no reason to, Turkey is not a neutral party in these negotiations either as Erdogan has influence through the Turkish Diaspora in both France and Germany, of course as I’ve pointed out before Shoigu is perhaps the more utterly incapable figure in Putin’s circle, he suggested this battle plan, that Gerasimov tried to paper over,
ok when did Ukraine take Mariupol when I wasn’t looking, Odessa does seem exceedingly long odds
some reinforcement might be in order,
https://twitter.com/sfrantzman/status/1777034444563423586
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hynwgvglr
despite everything,
miguel cervantes,
June 13 2014
A little bit of doublespeak?
Stoltenberg suggests Ukraine will have to compromise with Russia
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/stoltenberg-suggests-ukraine-will-have-to-1712432329.html