Next day ruminations on the 2022 midterms
I could go on and on and on. But for now, here are some of my thoughts:
(1) On this blog you never saw any prediction of a red tsunami or even a red wavelet. There are several reasons for that. The first is that my predictions in elections are few and far between, and I don’t make one unless I have real confidence in it. The second is that unfortunately I have a tendency to pessimism, and therefore I don’t like to air that unnecessarily because sometimes it leads me astray. The third is that my gut feeling – I think aside from pessimism – was that I just wasn’t seeing any red tsunami when I analyzed things, like in my writings about why people would vote for Fetterman or why I didn’t think Bolduc had a good chance in New Hampshire.
Some of the polls predicting victory for Republicans were way off, such as the polls for Kari Lake. I hear there’s a chance she still might win, but if she does it will certainly be by a hair and there’s a very good chance she will lose. Perhaps fraud on the part of Democrats is involved (the Maricopa machine mess); perhaps not. In her case I thought she’d win because Arizona is not a bluer-than-blue state and her opponent Hobbs was so terrible. If Lake couldn’t win there against Hobbs, it’s a very bad sign whether the race was fair and square or whether fraud was involved.
But some of the polls were spot on, especially in close races where the Democrat was slightly ahead and people interpreted that as meaning Republicans were being underpolled and the Republican candidate was actually ahead. In blue New York, Zeldin never was ahead in the polls although he came closer and closer to Hochul. In the end, he got 47% to her 53%, which is a great showing for a Republican in NY (compare to Cuomo’s 62% win in 2010). However – and it’s a huge “however” – he lost. It highlights the fact that at this point no Republican can win in New York however compelling a candidate and however poor the opponent. It’s terrible, but I believe it is true. And I believe it was true of a great many of the races last night, such as in some states such as Washington, which have become one-party Democrat strongholds. Perhaps this will change in the future, but something huge would have to happen.
(2) Last night I wrote that party was everything for Democrats, and I still think so.
(3) I’ve written about New Hampshire before, and I think the state is instructive in terms of purplish states. Republican Governor Chris Sununu won re-election easily in New Hampshire. Prior to the primaries it was rumored that he would run for the Senate and would win and even be responsible for flipping the Senate to the GOP. When he announced he would run again for governor instead, current Democrat Senator Hassan was clearly going to be the winner in that state despite her weaknesses, because no other strong Republican candidate emerged. It seems odd that Sununu could win re-election as governor with 57% of the vote to his Democrat runner-up’s 42%, and yet Hassan could beat Bolduc 54% to 44%, not even close (and by the way, reflective of many of the polls that predicted a 10-point margin there). The combination of those two results requires a lot of voters crossing over, which makes no sense until you realize that Sununu comes across in a likable way that somehow appeals to both sides, and Bolduc came across as an extremist and doesn’t have any particular “likability” factor. Remember also that Trump didn’t win in New Hampshire in 2016 or 2020, and although it was very close in 2016 it wasn’t the least bit close in 2020. A Trumpian candidate wasn’t going to appeal to New Hampshire voters, whatever the reason.
So although in certain states, the Democrat will always win and in other states the Republican will always win, in purple states like New Hampshire that just isn’t true. A candidate has to have more on the ball in order to defeat an incumbent like Hassan. I fail to see her appeal, but apparently she comes across to a lot of people as a kindly moderate, even though she’s voted for every leftist bill that’s come down the Senate pike. I don’t think a lot of people even paid attention to her voting record, though; I think they see her as non-threatening and saw Bolduc as threatening. And by the way, Bolduc’s opponent in the primary wouldn’t have won the election either, had he been the nominee – very bland and colorless and almost invisible. But Sununu would almost undoubtedly have won.
In other words, compelling and attractive personalities of GOP challengers can be important in swing states. Not so in blue states.
(4) Early voting and extensive mail-in voting are abominations, as are ballot harvesting and dropboxes. Whether fraud occurs or not, these voting methods have several big problems: they enable a lot of voting to occur before the candidates have run through the cycle or in some cases even debated (for example, Fetterman), they offer opportunities for fraud and therefore undermine trust in the validity of elections whether fraud occurs or not, and they make the total vote count take too long and therefore delay results. At least, that’s the way it tends to play out if an election is at all close.
Most other countries don’t allow early voting and have very limited mail-in voting, and there’s a reason for that. And the more the Democrats promote those two things, the more suspicious of the process everyone but Democrats will be. This deep distrust is a very bad recipe for our country. The right needs to dedicate itself to tightening up the rules in as many states as possible and re-establishing trust, although in states controlled by Democrats this will be well-nigh impossible.
By the way, even if Republicans wanted to commit fraud it would be harder for them for logistical reasons. But it’s logistically easier for Democrats because in most swing states in statewide elections all that is necessary is to come up with enough fraudulent votes in one big blue city or a couple of them. Fraud can be centralized in that manner.
(5) It’s easy to say the Democrats did so much better than expected because they cheated. And maybe that’s true. But maybe it’s not. We will never know because, as I’ve said many times, once the rules are loosened so much in so many states, it is impossible to prove cheating in those states. Some states like Florida have tightened up the voting mechanisms, and those can be trusted. Others can’t, but unless you can prove cheating it doesn’t matter in the practical sense because winning by hook or by crook is still winning. Right now this country has so many obvious problems that are a result of Democrats in power that the margin of a GOP win should have been way beyond the margin of fraud. That it wasn’t is probably the most horrendous thing about this election: it shouldn’t even have been close.
(6) It’s very tempting to lose heart. I don’t think we should, but we’ve known for quite a long time that things are grim, and this cycle the eagerly-anticipated reversal did not happen. That fear was probably why I was so tense leading up to the election last night.
(7) Trump’s picks didn’t do very well for the most part. Also, I think his instincts for politics have somewhat deserted him of late: picking a fight with DeSantis, and hinting he might announce a 2024 presidential run the night before the election and saying he will make some sort of announcement a week later. These are bad ideas and hurt the Republicans (and hurt Trump himself with his many supporters who like DeSantis), although DeSantis himself doesn’t appear to have been hurt in his own re-election bid. I think Trump’s actions also activated and motivated the anti-Trump crowd in both parties, which is sizable.
For 2024, Trump isn’t one to go gentle into that good night. But I wonder whether yesterday’s results might make him think twice about running again. Could that be why he delayed his announcement? Did he want to see what happened in the midterms in order to make his decision? If I was a betting person, I would bet it did not; his ego is too large and he’s too angry. But I think there’s a small chance, although I may be the only one who thinks so.
I have given Trump plenty of credit for his many accomplishment. But he may have won some battles and helped lose the war. I also give him tremendous credit for persevering against attacks and lies of a tremendously destructive and pervasive nature. But something’s going on with him now – and perhaps since his loss in 2020 – that makes him harmful to both himself and others. I’m sad to see it and sad to have to say it, but that’s my opinion.
I wish Trump would remain what he is best — a lightning rod for Dem ire and a gadfly against their positions, candidates, and leadership.
That way the left can moan about “that MEAN Orange Man” all they want, but there’s little they can do… since he can’t be “voted against”… this makes them very mad.
Neo: You also did not mention Musk’s acquisition of Twitter right before the election. Seems to me that that may have inspired some of the Left Base to Get out.
I do agree, however, that the fact that things have gone so much to shit in the last 5y should have been a Wake Up Call… but yeah, the “Yellow Dog Democrat” thing is fully in play. I have been mystified by that since I first encountered it 35-odd years ago, in my aunt. WTF kind of idiocy does it take to vote for a Hitler/Stalin ticket as long as they have a (D) after their names?
And one last thing — you also didn’t mention the invasion of various places by Dems fleeing the stupidity of left politics. That flight has shifted once GOP strongholds to “purple” zones, in Nevada, Arizona, and Hew Hampshire (perhaps others), as they flee Cali and Mass…. and they then vote for the same idiotic policies and type of candidates that ruined the places they fled from.
Remember, Arizona is where Barry Goldwater was from. And there have been few people more GOP than him.
“…it is impossible to prove cheating in those states…”
And Democrats will continue to ENSURE that it is impossible, wherever they can.
At the very least then, keeping ALL MAIL-IN ballots accessible and available for a long period of time AFTER the election TOGETHER WITH ease of recounting SHOULD BE LEGISLATED—with all ballots that are proven to be invalid or faulty tossed out.
This would—or might?—at least in theory, DISCOURAGE “certain practices”.
…But why do I suspect this is NOT going to happen…?
It seems odd that Sununu could win re-election as governor with 57% of the vote to his Democrat runner-up’s 42%, and yet Hassan could beat Bolduc 54% to 44%, not even close (and by the way, reflective of many of the polls that predicted a 10-point margin there). The combination of those two results requires a lot of voters crossing over, which makes no sense until you realize that Sununu comes across in a likable way that somehow appeals to both sides, and Bolduc came across as an extremist and doesn’t have any particular “likability” factor. Remember also that Trump didn’t win in New Hampshire in 2016 or 2020, and although it was very close in 2016 it wasn’t the least bit close in 2020. A Trumpian candidate wasn’t going to appeal to New Hampshire voters, whatever the reason.
The fact that a person can vote for a Senator or Congresscritter of one party while voting for a Governor from another in this day and age may seem astonishing to us, but it obviously happens a lot. I guess it’s true that independent swing voters (who, lets face it, are often low information) don’t vote for parties, they vote for personalities. They don’t necessarily associate bad policies with those politicians and parties who are responsible for them. And they’re more willing to believe the narratives spun out by the Democrats and MSM.
I think you’re being a bit too hard on Trump. For example, he’s getting blasted for endorsing Dr. Oz but look who was the establishment Republican alternative in that primary:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_McCormick#:~:text=McCormick%20served%20as%20the%20CEO,funds%2C%20from%202020%20to%202022.&text=Washington%2C%20Pennsylvania%2C%20U.S.&text=A%20member%20of%20the%20Republican,the%20George%20W.%20Bush%20administration.
A hedge fund CEO who had never run for political office before. And without looking, I’d be willing to bet the other primary alternatives in races where Trump’s pick lost the general were just as dubious.
Mike
“They don’t necessarily associate bad policies with those politicians and parties who are responsible for them.”
According to the polls, a large majority of the American people are unhappy with the direction of the country and don’t want Biden to run for re-election. Quite a few of those people just voted to make sure NOTHING changes and to virtually guarantee Biden WILL run for re-election.
I suspect this is going to be one of those times when we get what we bleeping deserve.
Mike
This regards statewide contests:
In states that are solidly Democratic or solidly Republican, there is a hiarchy of how their electorates will split tickets.
(1) The electorate is quite willing, when the dominate state party screws up enough, vote for governor and/or lt. governor of the opposing party. You saw this in Vermont last night which re-elected a Republican, and you saw it in Massachusetts and Maryland in 2014 and 2018 when they elected and re-elected Republicans. They will also split tickets for down ballot races at the state government level.
(2) The electorate is somewhat willing to vote for the occasional Senator from another party. See Alabama in the special election in which Roy Moore lost, or Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2010 and 2016. Even happened in Massachusetts in 2009’s special election.
(3) I don’t care how badly the national dominant party screws up, the electorate of a solidly Democrat or Republican state isn’t going to split tickets to vote for a candidate of the other party unless that candidate is sui generis in some political dimension.
I bring this up because a lot mournful commenters this morning are complaining about how these races were lost because of bad candidates like Boldruc and Mehmet Oz. Here is the hard truth- the dynamics of this election meant that no Republican was going to win the Senate races in Pennsylvania or New Hampshire. Hassan would have beaten Sununu had Sununu run, and that is why he didn’t run- he understood that hiarchy of ticket-splitting. New Hampshire is not longer a purple or even a light blue state- it is solidly Democrat now, and will not be electing Republicans to the Senate, and apparently not even to the House any longer.
they have made it impossible to fix the system, and much either to further schwab or soros policies, which are leading to famine and brownouts, across the fruited plane,
the gen z as far as we can grok them, hate this country’s very nation, they are engaged in a suicide pact, and we are tied to them at the end,
matriano was right, they just expanded the steal from 6 to 60 some locations, the charade in maricopa county proves the point, they had to make themselves unaccountable, doug ducey, made a perfect pantomine horse in this regard,
for a host of reasons, it doesnt seem to work on abbott or other officials, of course it took wests challenge for him to be more effective,
on the margins, the kumbaya after uvalde and the caucasus fire sale, did probably discourage base turnout, jm2c
MBunge:
I have never criticized Trump for supporting Oz.
I have criticized him for bashing DeSantis. I plan to write a post expanding on this, but I also will plan to criticize him for saying he preferred Abrams over Kemp.
To get the kind of political realignment necessary for Republicans to compete at the presidential level, we are going to have to have something truly dreadful happen to the country. A part of me is rooting for the Republicans to not gain the House in this election. I am beginning to realize that the only tenable way forward to a better future for the country, if not for myself (I am 56) is through the fires of Hell.
Yancey Ward said: Here is the hard truth- the dynamics of this election meant that no Republican was going to win the Senate races in Pennsylvania or New Hampshire.
That may well be true, I don’t know. But I’d like to now why. Why are so many people unable to connect all the bad stuff with the people responsible for the bad stuff? What is preventing supposedly rational voters from drawing a line from A to B if, as you say, it’s not the personality of the candidate but rather his party. Can we chalk it up to MSM propaganda?
“I have criticized him for bashing DeSantis. I plan to write a post expanding on this, but I also will plan to criticize him for saying he preferred Abrams over Kemp.”
“Bashing?” There’s pretty clearly a concerted effort underway to lure/push DeSantis into running against Trump. Saying a few mildly critical things in response to that is hardly bashing. And Trump thinks Kemp sold him out in the 2020 election.
Mike
I’ve lost heart.
“The combination of those two results requires a lot of voters crossing over, which makes no sense until you realize that Sununu comes across in a likable way that somehow appeals to both sides, and Bolduc came across as an extremist and doesn’t have any particular “likability” factor.”
This was confirmed to me by my brother who lives in Florida. His wife is extremely liberal, hates Trump and Republicans in General. But my brother said she “really likes” Desantis. Is it his young children and wife; his good looks? Maybe its just that he fights back against woke BS and foolishness, but at the same time he does in RESPONDING to it, but he doesn’t actively PROVOKE and pick fights, say like Trump and his tweets. Don’t get me wrong, I think Trump was a great president and did so much good for his country; I even like his provoking tweets. But — I’m starting to see that people, especially women, can be really turned off by all that aggressiveness, machismo and ego (as much as men love it!). That all may have worked for Trump in the Alpha male world of NY Real Estate, but in politics it prevents, as you say, the cross-over ticket splitters . . .
because they are not rational, not in terms of political choices, they have lost their ability to discern not small things but fundamental things, the media covers up the critical details
The polls are so ridiculous and too many on the right were blinded to that.
I saw one for the WA senate race on Monday that had it 49/48 for Murray over Smiley.
I have lived my entire life in this state and there was NO WAY zip zero that Smiley was that close.
It is currently Murray ahead 57/42.
It was sort of like the Gell-Mann Amnesia thing about the media for me with this election. I was positive those polls were way off here so why would I believe they were accurate elsewhere?
You want me to try to explain why unicorns aren’t good sources of electrical power, too?
Ok, I see Narciso beat me to it, Nonapod.
because trafalgar is good with real voters, but these phantom mail armadas can override that,
Lot of Establishment types slagging on Trump today, and praising DeSantis. That’s what they would have done anyway, regardless.
DeSantis is not Trump, the media will do what they always do to every R, and he will not do better than Trump would have done in his place is my prediction…
Trump’s one strength in 2016 was that the media could not define him for us because everyone had heard of him and had their own opinions. The media will define DeSantis for most people, who won’t have heard of him before he runs.
I don’t think Trump can pull that off a second time… maybe if things get really bad in the next two years and the media can’t successfully pin it on Trump a la Emmanuel Goldstein. I don’t wish for that.
A point to ponder: in what Presidential elections since 1992 did an R win the popular vote? Only in 2004. I know popular vote does not elect the President nor should it: I bring it up because it tells you something about how the Republican brand works nationally.
Establishment types cannot be trusted to tell you about who’s “electable”. They work for the Uniparty. Since 1994 it’s been managed opposition. Did you know that the People’s Republic of China has 8 non-Communist parties holding almost 1/3 of seats in the National People’s Congress? That’s where the Establishment will take Republicans. We’re nearly there now.
Real change will have to work bottom up, one precinct and one state at a time, and will need to focus on the one party that’s not hopeless. The career politicians have to go or it won’t get better. Doesn’t have to be all of them, just enough that the others learn the lesson. We need more outsiders, not fewer.
This is a pretty good bit of analysis.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/you-cant-beat-something-with-nothing?r=7ikwa&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
DeSantis won by such a wide margin for a lot of reasons but the biggest was that he had an incredible record from the last four years to run on.
Too many candidates stood for nothing (Oz) or were too outsidery (Masters, Walker) and most importantly too associated with Trump in addition to the first two.
DeSantis didn’t need Trump because he has a great record and is an extraordinary leader.
He is a once in a generation (at least) Republican. He is young, handsome, has a young beautiful family, and he has a backbone and fights back in an effective fact based way without childish nicknames and narcissistic rants.
Neo: (5) is absolutely spot on.
Everyone is all “what happened?” –
Changes to voting policy “because covid” which were never pulled back. The 2020 election was fraudulent, and for all the talk nothing was done to fix what allowed that to happen.
Also, I agree: it shouldn’t even have been close.
1. On fraud, I agree that, for the most part, it really isn’t clear how much there was, and how much it mattered. However, I do think the news from AZ stinks. In NY, there is not a doubt in my mind there was plenty. I grew up there, on LI, and I never met anyone who thought elections were honest. It was only on moving to VA that I encountered people who expected something different.
2. That said, if there was a lot of cheating, it was more subtle than in 2020. Of course, that could just be one more bit of evidence that the Democrats are miles better at politics than Republicans.
3. I am tired of pundits who predictably say last night confirms they were right all along. I don’t mean neo, but almost everyone else I see. One Krugman is more than enough.
4. I have no idea what to do about the increasingly obvious fact that most Americans don’t want to hear what we are saying.
Neo, Trump did the same here in CO, trashing the Rep canidate for Senate against Bennett. Now here in CO we know that Bennett would not loose but still Trump could have kept his trap shut.
I liked him as a President, but Trump should not run. Yes, he would be great at needling the Dems and causing them to run around like chickens.
What Griffin said above. (Slow clap). Trump is an albatross around our necks.
We need to get beyond crazy. The democrats have that covered. Lets get behind DeSantis now and move forward.
I don’t know what percentage of the vote was generation Z, but apparently they made the difference in many races given their overwhelmingly Democrat voting. Maybe their Marxist education or the free college loan relief did the trick.
DeSantis is not a bad guy but the Dems only have to “fortify” the elections in 3-5 states, and the media is going to paint DeSantis (to the general public, who has no idea who he is except maybe as the “don’t say gay” guy and isn’t he against Disney?) as the illegitimate child of Trump and Hitler–assuming the DOJ or the FBI doesn’t find something to charge DeSantis with.
So the Republican plan better be a hell of a lot more than “vote DeSantis”. Or we’ll be having this same conversation in 2024.
The party insiders currently bringing you the “too many crazies, and Trump” message are the ones who GOT us here and have lost every popular vote but one in the last 20 years.
Do we think the national media is going to let DeSantis talk to the voters, or show pictures of his loving family? This is the same media that propagated the “don’t say gay” lie about DeSantis and the “inject bleach” lie about Trump. They will make up a villain, pretend that’s DeSantis, and 90% of voters will be seeing THAT as their first impression in 2023.
Do we not know how this works?
We can throw our hands up and say we don’t know if fraud did or didn’t occur, but I do think we want to look at all the AZ precincts and quantify which ones had machines that worked well and which ones didn’t.
Was it really true that precincts that served college and univ. voters functioned well, and Maricopa’s didn’t? The other factor is that probabilities scale with 1/sqrt(N). If a couple precincts messed up in red areas that can be happenstance. If 10 or 20 did, with none in blue areas, that’s very hard to chalk up to bad luck.
In NY, there is not a doubt in my mind there was plenty. I grew up there, on LI, and I never met anyone who thought elections were honest.
I was involved in street level politics in New York (Monroe County and the Southern Tier). The board of elections in NYC had a bad reputation, but elsewhere, there were all kinds of safeguards you don’t see in the other states under discussion. The biggest problem in New York right now is that relict entries are no longer scraped.
It’s clear that we need to improve our voting process. One way is that any precinct that cannot complete its count by midnight should be divided into additional precincts until they can complete the count in a timely manner.
I mean we were just the other day about a professor on national news saying Republicans were going to murder our children if they won. It’s like that never happened.
As soon as DeSantis is the guy, what are they going to say about him, to the 90% of people who won’t have been paying attention up to that point?
We’re not going to vote our way out. It is going to take a great deal more than voting.
The ‘they will attack DeSantis too’ argument is very strange to me. Yes, they will attack DeSantis but that is not an argument for Trump or anybody else for that matter. It’s about what is the most effective way to fight back against that. Is it fact based and calm or is it narcissistic and off putting to a wide swath of gettable voters?
Frederick,
I agree it’s about more than voting but there does need to be a candidate and even if it’s Trump in 24 that will be it for him and they will say all kinds of stuff about the nominee in 28 and 32 and 36 so then what?
Saying they will just start attacking DeSantis is a bizarre reason to argue against him.
Yancey Ward:
You are completely wrong about NH. Sununu would have beaten Hassan easily. He is far more popular than she. But no other NH Republican could have beaten her.
NH is mostly blue in national elections but mostly red on the state level, by the way. It has a split personality.
Concluding that the polls were wrong is quite an assumption. The vote totals in states and cities run by people with a long, sordid history of lying, cheating, stealing and criminality should not be presumed correct. As a practical matter, you are right in that nothing can be done about a stolen election.
BUT BUT BUT — it would be sheer folly to reach conclusions and say that lessons were learned because of the vote totals.
If you don’t know enough to reach a conclusion, avoid making conclusions.
@Griffin:Saying they will just start attacking DeSantis is a bizarre reason to argue against him.
I’m not arguing against him. Why on Earth do you think I am?
This is what I’m talking about. You argue against something I never said, and then create the impression in other people that that’s what I said. That’s one of the worst things we’re up against! You are doing to me (unintentionally I’m sure) what the media does to every Republican.
This is what I’m saying: the Republican plan better be a hell of a lot more than “vote DeSantis”. Or we’ll be having this same conversation in 2024…. We’re not going to vote our way out. It is going to take a great deal more than voting.
The voters will never get to see how “fact-based” and “calm” DeSantis is unless we do a hell of a lot more than just nominate and vote for DeSantis.
@neo
I agree with you re: bashing DeSantis. However I find it hard to not agree with preferring Abrams over Kemp. Not many people realize just how disgusting, dishonorable, and dishonest Kemp was in his interactions with Trump, such as allowing his left-leaning subordinates to nakedly lie about the nature and content of the infamous “phone call” from Trump while sitting on the unadulterated audio that he knew largely exonerated Trump of those insinuations. That along with his less than stellar conduct in things like going after voter fraud, which we all seem to agree is a major issue.
We can split hairs on whether or not Kemp is better or worse than Abrams and whether having an R holding the seat does better for America or the Republican Party or the Conservative Cause, but I’d ask would it really be better for Trump, from his point of view?
I probably would’ve voted for Kemp in Georgia if I had to, but I would’ve sought to get him out of power in the primary. The man is dishonorable scum and a backstabber, and part of me does prefer someone stabbing you in the front htan the back.
Fredrick: I doubt DeSantis will end up being his own worse enemy and feed the media as much as Trump has.
DeSantis 2024. Get focused.
I think the members of Generation Z are often badly educated, misinformed, spoiled, and in some cases malevolent. But as a radical leftist until well into my fifties, I will abstain from criticizing how they vote.
They are coming of age in a declining nation and a shredded economy, in no small part because of corrupt octogenarian and septuagenarian politicians in both parties who refuse to relinquish power, and because of the corrupt media establishment that serves the Democratic Party.
Gen X will have to duke it out with the Millennials and what will be left of Generation X, not to mention the generations still to come up behind them. It will be their world, not mine, and maybe something good will emerge from the friction. Reality will have a say, too. The last word, at long last.
@Harry Malloy: Make your way to the Seattle area in November 2024–if your social credit allows you to expend your carbon credits by then–and I’ll buy you a beer to cry into. “Vote DeSantis” won’t be enough.
There’s elections in China and people elect politicians who are not in the Communist Party. How’s that working out? Pretty sweet for all the politicians, Communist and non-.
@turtler:I probably would’ve voted for Kemp in Georgia if I had to, but I would’ve sought to get him out of power in the primary. The man is dishonorable scum and a backstabber, and part of me does prefer someone stabbing you in the front htan the back.
I’m shocked at you, Turtler. The gentlemen at National Review have assured me that Kemp is an honorable man whose topsiders would not have been out of place on Buckley’s yacht. Not like that Walker, professional athletics is just so de trop, gentlemen don’t play for money.
The guys who are telling us it’s all Trump’s fault, and outsiders’ fault, are the guys who didn’t do anything to help Trump when he was in office, and worked against him whenever they could.
What politicians get paid to do, is not what they get elected to do. We, the voters, can change that, but we’d have to do a lot more than just vote….
Frederick,
Apologies. I guess I misunderstood your middle paragraph in your 5:17 comment because others here have made that argument for Trump.
But who is saying ‘Vote DeSantis’ will be enough? That’s a strawman.
Isn’t having a better candidate a good thing?
I give kemp his props, opening up the state, leading the way in covid sanity, he and his lieutenant also enabled the fraud that slithers like a horror across the fruited plain
Griffin: “But who is saying ‘Vote DeSantis’ will be enough? That’s a strawman.”
Exactly. How’s that an argument?
@Griffin:Isn’t having a better candidate a good thing?
Pennsylvania just elected a brain-damaged Senator. They also elected a dead state representative. Haven’t we just been talking about that? No, I don’t think it matters much the quality of the candidate. Look at the President and Vice President. We are way past 1980 or even 2016.
I don’t think DeSantis is bad. I’m just saying talking about who we want to vote for in 2024 is a complete waste of our time when we need to be talking about how do we plan to buck all the institutions that are stacked against us. The people dominating those institutions who have (R) after their name are assuring us that all we need to do is do it their way, again, like we did for the last 75 years, and this time it will be different…
If we had what the Dems had in PA, we too could elect the brain-damaged, the dementia-afflicted, and the dead. That’s where we need to focus, on building something that would allow living conservatives with functioning brains to beat dead and brain-damaged Democrats. It’s that or genteel losers.
A hedge fund CEO who had never run for political office before. And without looking, I’d be willing to bet the other primary alternatives in races where Trump’s pick lost the general were just as dubious.
A couple of them looked good, but AFAICT, the money lined up behind the hedge guy. I do wonder what might have been had Trump gotten behind one of the others and maybe shake the small check donor tree. AFAICT, Oz did his best, but the problems were insuperable.
Frederick,
Ok. I am not for talking about 24 either but the problem is that if Trump announces his candidacy next week we will be forced to talk about it.
I guess I would argue that having a great candidate helps ‘to buck all the institutions’ aligned against us but is in no way the only thing necessary nor is anybody saying it is.
Fredrick, thats fine. The institutions should be bucked but that would means swimming up stream in a strong current. Meanwhile we could start winning elections. That would be helpful. That means backing candidates that have a chance. That would be DeSantis, and not Trump.
MBunge:
What he said about DeSantis was not mild, and it was extraordinarily ill-timed – prior to this election. It’s 2 years to the 2024 election. Trump’s remarks have hurt him far more than they have hurt DeSantis
Yes, Trump vindictively and stupidly and destructively bashed Kemp before the election and said Abrams might be a better governor. Are you really attempting to defend this?
@Griffin, Harry Malloy: Did you miss the dead guy the Democrats elected? Just wondering.
A literal corpse defeated a Republican in Pennsylvania, so tell me again about having a good candidate helps win elections?
If the deck chairs on the Titanic had been properly rearranged I’m sure the lifeboats might have been filled in a more orderly way, I suppose.
Turtler:
Trump could have criticized Kemp without elevating Abrams. Kemp was awful to Trump – I wrote a lot about it at the time. But Abrams would have been far worse both for Trump and for Georgia.
Trump tweet/social media text today:
“Now that the Election in Florida is over, and everything went quite well, shouldn’t it be said that in 2020, I got 1.1 million more votes in Florida than Ron D got this year, 5.7 million to 4.6 million? Just asking?”
Griffin @ 4:37pm links to a good analysis– You can’t beat something with nothing.
Republicans pointed out how bad things are, but did they offer solutions– other than “elect me”? Compared to 1994, McCarthy’s look at what we’ll do, was such a steaming pile of generalities and implemented so poorly to have no effect.
While watching Fox News during some of the results, the poll they ran indicated American’s want more government, not less; think global warming is serious; think the FBI is doing a swell job; and a basket of other opinions that had me wondering if CNN had highjacked the station.
While there was a time when “government is not the solution, it’s the problem” resonated with voters– that time is over. So, what solution do we offer, when the majority of American’s believe the government is the solution? Wait until things are so bad America comes to its senses? That will only happen if the voter realizes that A causes B– but that is unlikely to happen when the media keeps telling them that the people telling them A causes B are nazis. The country never has the discussion of whether or not A causes B.
There was a time when a skeptical press would actually act as referee. While we know the media is just the megaphone for the left, what we’re seeing is the results of decades of the left having their foot firmly on the scales of public debate.
I’m afraid, at this point President Trump is damaged goods. He has become so fixated on the theft of his second term, he won’t be able to offer a vision of a new America going forward.
I would like to think that President Trump could rise above the noise of the media to get a positive vision for the country, but at this point the media have so poisoned any conversation (ha, ha. Imagine having a conversation about anything in the public square). We don’t have conversations, or debates or even arguments anymore in the public square. We hurl invectives at one another. We spit at one another. We throw dung at one another.
Michigan passed abortion legislation that includes protections for “gender affirming care” without parental notification. Is this what a civilized society does?
https://thefederalist.com/2022/10/12/michigan-is-hiding-a-childrens-constitutional-right-to-genital-amputation-in-its-abortion-amendment/
@Neo On that much I largely agree and I think it points to one of Trump’s real flaws, namely his tendency to go overboard. But I do want to see the backside of Kemp and I imagine Trump would want more so.
@Frederick
Ya know, I’m starting to think these NRO people aren’t always on the ball. Maybe they have some issues with priorities? I unno.
Granted, I do think electing a literal corpse is less shocking than you make it out to be; it has been established in US politics for decades. This gives a decent overview.
https://listverse.com/2018/08/14/10-times-dead-people-won-elections/
For better or worse – and I’d argue for the better- the US has long-established protocols on what to do if a candidate dies between their candidacy being confirmed and the election, and even what to do if they win in spite of being dead. It mostly comes down to who their successor is and is one of the places where the US is closer to the major Parliamentary countries (like most of Europe) in voting for the party rather than the person.
Still, the fact that this happened with Fetterman and co points to real problems.
It used to be purple in national elections, but that ended a decade ago. It just elected two Democratic House members and reelected a Democrat as Senator. It will not elect another Republican to the Senate in my lifetime. Sununu no doubt is more popular in New Hampshire than Hassan, but that isn’t how the electorate would have viewed it. The electorate last night didn’t vote for Hassan because they liked her more than Boldruc- they voted for her because she was the Democrat. They would have made the exact same choice if her opponent had been Sununu. Your view of how the electorate chooses to vote is extremely simplistic and naive.
@Griffin, Harry Malloy: Did you miss the dead guy the Democrats elected? Just wondering.
His only opponent was a Green Party candidate. It’s a reasonable inference that many of the people who cast a ballot for him had missed the news of his death.
Serious question:
What would you do if the person you were going to vote for died after it was too late to be removed from the ballot?
Vote for your (dead) guy?
Vote for the other (living) guy?
Vote for nobody in that race?
The answer should be obvious.
It just elected two Democratic House members and reelected a Democrat as Senator.
All three were incumbents and all three races were competitive.
What Art Deco and Grif said. Besides, the way US laws work you’d vote for the Dead Guy with the expectation that the Dead Guy will be replaced by his runner up or some other member of his/your party that you’d agree with.
“Voters in Montana—where the state Supreme Court has already upheld abortion rights—are voting on a more narrow ballot measure that would expand rights for infants who are “born alive” after failed abortions, and allow healthcare workers to face punishments if they don’t give them proper medical treatment.”
Wow, just wow.
Yancey Ward:
It is highly likely you are incorrect. Sununu almost certainly would have won against Hassan. He was leading in every poll, sometimes by a little and sometimes by a lot, but always beating her. And these polls were likely to have held up because both Sununu and Hassan were very well-known in the state. The electorate was very familiar with both of them already.
Calling me “simplistic and naive” isn’t really much of an argument. Should I respond as my brother used to when we were children, “I’m rubber, you’re glue, bounces off me and sticks to you?”
Turtler,
Yes, exactly you vote for your (dead) guy every time so using that as an example of problems in PA doesn’t fly with me. If voters supported that guy when living it makes sense to vote for him even if he died.
This is a good post with good thoughts.
I want to push back a bit on Yancey Ward and MBunge(in a friendly way, of course). MBunge may not like McCormick, but he was polling ahead of Fetterman pre-stroke. Oz never polled ahead of Fetterman prior to the debate. There is a way to for a Republican to win statewide in PA by racking up votes the affluent Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs. That’s not how Trump won Pennsylvania, but it is a viable way. Toomey did it twice. Specter used to do it regularly. I think McCormick had a real shot at that play, hedge fund history and all. If Oz had shared a ticket with a Toomey-style Republican instead of Mastriano, he might have been able to ride coattails on that play too.
And FWIW, McCormick was not the establishment’s first choice for PA Senate. The first choice was Pat Toomey, who I believe would have held that seat as long as Trump refrained from O’Dea-ing him. Toomey retired, reportedly, because he got tired of being trolled by Trump.
Same deal with Sununu in NH. Supposedly he also passed on that race to avoid Trump.
Short answer – these were not unwinnable races, though they may have been unwinnable for MAGA types in 2022.
I’ve been trying to keep my thoughts in perspective the whole day and appreciate what we did accomplish. It’s easy to dwell on the negative (there’s plenty of it), without considering what successes there were, and the Everest that was overcome to get to those sucesses:
Conservatives of all stripes and Republucan candidates overall faced a behemoth of a MSM-Entertainment complex devoted to stomping them into the ground. They are often censored on social media, piliored in the press, harassed and threatened (sometimes assulted) by progressive ‘activists’, occasionally prosecuted by woke prosecutors, shunned by long time friends and family….
The list goes on and on.
A large portion of Americans are blasted with progressive propaganda nearly every waking moment. Virtually every institution they encounter…the MSM, entertainment, professional sports, late night talk shows, their HR department, their kids’ school, their church, many ofvthe businesses they patronize, virtually all large social media…is smothering them with the same message: Liberals and Democrats GOOD! Conservatives and Republicans BAD!
On the other side, there’s some talk radio, a bunch of podcasts, alternative social media and of course, word of mouth (for those with the chutzpah to do so).
This isn’t a David v. Goliath struggle; it is David v. Death Star.
And yet, when the dust settles, the GOP is going to have a small House majority and will either have a one seat Senate majority (Deja vu, Georgia) or a still 50-50 Senate. That is actually rather impressive, given the overall environment.
remember when they voted for mel carnahan, to replace ashcroft even though he was dead, that’s not a new thing
so did lindsays hail mary pass, throw up a whole bunch of unneccessary flak, against gop candidates, on the margins
it just appears to me, every opportunity is granted to the evil loathsome corrupt candidate (see adam frisch) and those of good will are made to walk a long road,
Ackler, you sure about that small house majority? I’m getting nervous about even that.
Bauxite:
Sununu said he passed on the Senate race because he felt this way:
He discussed it at great length, and it sounded like he meant it. I think a lot of governors wouldn’t like being senators for the same reason.
Stealing elections is in the Democrat DNA.
BOB ROACH’S PLAN FOR CIRCUMVENTING A DEMOCRAT
Where did all these Democrats come from? They grow thicker and thicker and act more and more outrageously at each successive election. Now yesterday they had the presumption to elect S. H. Dwinelle to the Judgeship of the Fifteenth District Court, and not content with this, they were depraved enough to elect four out of the six Justices of the Peace! Oh, ‘Enery Villiam, where is thy blush! Oh, Timothy Hooligan, where is thy shame! It’s out. Democrats haven’t got any. But Union men staid away from the election – they either did that or else they came to the election and voted Democratic tickets – I think it was the latter, though the Flag will doubtless say it was the former. But these Democrats didn’t stay away – you never catch a Democrat staying away from an election. The grand end and aim of his life is to vote or be voted for, and he accommodates to circumstances and does one just as cheerfully as he does the other. The Democracy of America left their native wilds in England and Connaught to come here and vote – and when a man, and especially a foreigner, who don’t have any voting at home any more than an Arkansas man has ice-cream for dinner, comes three or four thousand miles to luxuriate in occasional voting, he isn’t going to stay away from an election any more than the Arkansas man will leave the hotel table in “Orleans” until he has destroyed most of the ice cream. The only man I ever knew who could counteract this passion on the part of Democrats for voting, was Robert Roach, carpenter of the steamer Aleck Scott, “plying to and from St. Louis to New Orleans and back,” as her advertisement sometimes read. The Democrats generally came up as deck passengers from New Or leans, and the yellow fever used to snatch them right and left – eight or nine a day for the first six or eight hundred miles; consequently Roach would have a lot on hand to “plant” every time the boat landed to wood – “plant” was Roach’s word. One day as Roach was superintending a burial the Captain came up and said:
“God bless my soul, Roach, what do you mean by shoving a corpse into a hole in the hill-side in this barbarous way, face down and its feet sticking out?”
“I always plant them foreign Democrats in that manner, sir, because, damn their souls, if you plant ’em any other way they’ll dig out and vote the first time there’s an election – but look at that fellow, now – you put ’em in head first and face down and the more they dig the deeper they’ll go into the hill.”
In my opinion, if we do not get Roach to superintend our cemeteries, enough Democrats will dig out at the next election to carry their entire ticket. It begins to look that way.
[reprinted in The Works of Mark Twain; Early Tales & Sketches, Vol. 2 1864-1865, (Univ. of California Press, 1981), pp. 313-14.]
I’ve had a few random thoughts so far:
Trump knows who and what he is; a lot of voters think they know who and what Trump is, and for enough of them to make a difference, it’s negative. The age issue aside, I think it’s time for Trump to retire from active politics. He was cheated out of re-election in 2020, where that would have made a difference. Time has marched on, however, and it’s time for Trump to do the same.
Several of the candidates were “weak beer,” lacking the necessary distinctive characteristics to command voters’ attention and desire. Oz in Pennsylvania and Walker in Georgia come to mind, neither came across as “significantly better in significant ways” than their opponent, so among those who felt “circumstances created pressure to vote” – which I’m guessing was most – they just found themselves in a voting booth having to make some sort of choice.
The “Red Wave” was talked about, mostly with alarm by the MSM’s Practitioners, and even Only Slightly Yellow Dogs probably felt some degree of pressure to defend their history and position, and it probably scared enough others to pump up the anti-Republican numbers.
Arizona – Lake kept stressing “we’re going to fix Arizona” but if most people felt there wasn’t much wrong with Arizona so why upset the apple cart fixing what doesn’t seem to be broken, there’s no winning message. “Local” counts heavily, and if “local” is my subdivision, supermarket, and social circle, that’s a tough wall to break through.
Fraud: As long as we have a Democrat Party there will be election fraud. And, as along as the Democrat Party is able to minimize in-person voting on election day with required valid identification and clean voter rolls they will have an easy path to committing that fraud.
Until, and unless, Republicans purge the RINOs and seriously develop national and regional candidates who have solid foundations in what voters consider important, and can convey that message in a likeable manner, they will continue to be “behind the curve.” And, since the Constitution assigns the states the responsibility for conducting elections developing competent political foundations in states – which seems to consistently elude Republicans despite numerous state legislature and gubernatorial victories – there will be no hope for rectifying the fraud problem.
I’m guessing the US will continue to stumble along a while longer as the Left builds the critical mass necessary to affect a complete takeover while Republicans, and many of their supporters, wonder what happened. 2024 will almost certainly be a watershed year and I’d guess it will all be over by 2028, certainly by 2032. As for the ending, probably some degree of “bang” but mostly “whimper.”
@Griffin, Art Deco:Green Party
So the electability runs dead Democrat > living Green Party > living Republican. I’m not sure that bolsters anyone’s case that better candidates will help us win elections.
@Griffin: you vote for your (dead) guy every time so using that as an example of problems in PA doesn’t fly with me.
You’ve been telling me that better candidates matter, and now you’re telling me that it makes sense to vote for dead people. Either Pet Sematary was right all along and dead really is better, or the better candidate DIDN’T matter to anyone who votes for the dead guy, because they assumed the Dems would take care of it regardless.
I don’t think it’s wise to try to rationalize the problem with the Republican party away. Happy to buy you, too, a beer to cry into come 2024…
Frederick:
It depends.
For people who vote the party, they will always vote for the dead guy over the opponent. But some races, in some states, are won in the middle, and the people in the middle care about candidates more.
So, I just checked up on the House races. GOP holds 208 seats as victories, needs 218 for a majority, and leads or is tied (%wise) in 12 of the remaining races (all numbers from RCP) I think there is less than a 50% chance they will win control of the House now given where most of the races they lead in are located (CA). To me, it looks like they have 5 more sure wins in that 12, but the other 7 just look way too early call, and likely will be inundated with extra found ballots.
I also think McCormick might have beaten Fetterman, based on reporting at the time.
The only thing that worries me a bit about the DeSantis talk is his very young family. 2028 would be better timing for them.
I agree with Neo’s thoughts here in general. And we all need to keep on working at pushing back on cultural issues and on local and state politics.
Frederick,
Come on!
That was an example that you brought up and is obviously a rare occurrence which would lead to some unique voting strategy. It would also depend on the rules. Is it a no lose for the living guy? Meaning he beats the dead guy he’s the winner but if the dead guy wins there is a special election.
But no I don’t recommend nominating dead candidates if that answers your question.
No amount of rationalization can square the vote results with this;
“Nearly 90% of Americans unhappy with the nation’s direction – poll” That was reported back in July. Does anyone really think that % was less yesterday?
Yet reportedly not even one incumbent democrat Senator or Governor lost election?
Independents overwhelmingly voted for the status quo?
Liberals overwhelmingly placed party before their family?
Blue collar Democrats continue to believe that the democrat party has their back?
That poll indicates that a lot of independents and liberals are unhappy with the country’s direction. But they voted for the country to continue in the direction with which they’re unhappy?
OK, I got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you. It’s a hell of a deal. Trust me.
Neo, by now you should realize (and I am sure you actually do know this) paying attention to polls, especially in hypothetical races, is idiocy on stilts. New Hampshire as it stands is perfectly happy to elect Sununu governor, but the state has moved past the point where it will elect a Republican, no matter how personally popular in the state, to a federal office. You won’t see another Republican Senator from New Hampshire in my lifetime elected. Larry Hogan and Chuck Baker were quite personally popular in Maryland and Massachusetts, and sure much more popular than any of the four Senators in those two states, but neither one would get within 10 points of winning a Senate race in those states. That is the hiarchy I mentioned- the majority in a state will split the vote to elect a governor, lt. governor, or an AG/Secretary of State, but they won’t waste that vote on a Senate seat. This kicks in when the partisan tilt of a state is 6-7% on either side. This is why you no longer see Republican senators from New York, Vermont, Connecticut, Michigan, Minnesota, California, Washington, Oregon, etc. Same applies to states like Kentucky, Tennessee, etc. the other direction. Joe Manchin is the last Democrat who will win a senate seat from West Virginia for the same reason- the electorate of the state has move past that tipping point.
One last point because it ties into this- a lot of people are assuming that we get rid of Trump, we get to keep Ohio and Iowa in the GOP fold for 2024. Not true. Iowa is surely still about 1% leaning blue, and Ohio about 1% leaning red. Trump was a unique candidate for whom the partisan leanings of the various states were invalid. With Trump gone, those leanings will reassert themselves across the board. States like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina will be easier for Republicans to win statewide, but states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan will be much harder. Instead of losing Wisconsin by less than 1% as in 2020 in a 51D-47D nationwide race, the GOP will lose Wisconsin by 3% in a 50/50 nationwide race.
Geoffrey,
Don’t believe any poll on any topic.
If we have learned anything these last few years it is these polls are complete BS and should be given no attention.
Yancey Ward:
The GOP has flipped a lot more House seats than the Democrats have so far (see this). Are the remaining undecided House races held by Republicans or Democrats? That’s an important question. And the ones in California – where are they in California?
In the present House, the GOP has 212 seats and the Democrats 220. According to the article I linked above, the GOP has flipped 12 Democrats seats; I haven’t read about Democrats flipping any from the GOP yet. If most of the GOP incumbents hold, the math tells me it is probable that they will gain control of the House even if they don’t flip any more seats from the Democrats.
Of course, as I’ve said before, I have a tendency to pessimism. So I worry until the final results are in and they indicate GOP control of the House, and until then it is not at all a sure thing. But I don’t know why you say you lean towards them losing control. Wherever those seats in California are – and I can’t seem to find a list of them – some of them are probably in districts that tend to vote Republican and already did so in 2020. There’s not been a ton of flipping in this 2022 election so far, but so far the majority of what flipping has occurred has been from Democrat to Republican.
I think Yancey is right. On the Fox website you can go line by line on the undecided house races. Republicans literally need to win every single one they are leading just to get to 218. When was the last time you saw the last 2% of the vote break Republican? I will be pleasantly surprised if I’m wrong.
Neo,
The Democrats did flip a GOP seat in Michigan, and I think a couple others.
That said, from the Washington Examiner’s site, the GOP currently has won 207 seats and is leading in 14 of the undecided races. That would give them 221; a depressingly small majority, but a majority nonetheless. Yes, some of these outstanding seats are in California and yes, some might see the overall lead flip (the reverse is true too) and yes, fraud is still possible; but a narrow GOP majority seems highly likely.
One caveat to my comment – some of those races have like 48% of the vote counted, so not really sure about those. Maybe more astute political types might have better insight as to which way those may go. That’s why I even put this out there – in the hopes someone could give me some good news!
Yancey Ward:
You seem quite fond of epithets like “naive” and “idiocy on stilts.” But it’s not persuasive to argue that way. Please quit the insults and the snark and make your points without them.
And no, paying attention to polls is not “idiocy on stilts.” Polls are sometimes wrong, sometimes very wrong, and are rarely exactly on target. But if you actually look at them carefully – as I have – you will notice they are generally right (especially averages and/or tendencies rather than single polls) quite a bit more often than not.
In fact, for example, polls consistently said Bolduc would lose the race. Some said by a lot, some said by less. The polls were correct although they underestimated the amount of his loss.
One problem in yesterday’s election is that people seem to have interpreted close polls in which the Democrat was slightly ahead as contests where the Republican would win. But for the most part the polls were correct – to take another example, Oz was consistently behind Fetterman in the polls right up till a few days before the election (see this). The recent polls also mattered much less in the Fetterman victory because of the very large amount of early voting, in which he had a strong lead.
Also, in 2016 I analyzed why it was that national polls, widely excoriated as having been awful, were not so awful at all (see this).
One more thing – I am not saying that other Republicans will ever again be elected to the Senate from NH. I have no idea whether one ever will. So you are arguing with a strawman of your own creation when you go into that. I am saying that Sununu would have beaten Hassan. I am speaking about those two.
Griffin:
See my above comment to Yancey Ward on polls.
America doesn’t need more Republican voters.
It needs more godly citizens.
Moral compass.
Not killing babies or grooming kids.
Spending money we don’t have on people we shouldn’t.
Doesn’t seem to be enough opposition to that.
So the electability runs dead Democrat > living Green Party > living Republican. I’m not sure that bolsters anyone’s case that better candidates will help us win elections.
There was no Republican candidate in the race.
Well one of the problems with the polling is that it’s somewhat circular. They have to weight for party identification, but people tend to identify with the party’s candidate they plan to vote for. A seat that’s actually in play will likely be decided by a small number of voters who aren’t consistently identifying with a party, and on top of that you have noise of who you can contact, shy conservatives, whatever.
To me the real tell is that the pollsters who get it right in one election can’t be relied on to get it right in the next. To me that says we’re probably looking for patterns in noise.
It’s kind of like if you had ten people in a room calling coin tosses. When they get it wrong you kick them out, so after the first toss there’s 4 – 6 left, and after the second there’s 1 – 3, but those 1 – 3 aren’t going to guess the next one any better than the previous 9 – 7 did.
I have not seen much about this…..remember those multiple dark Biden speeches about how the Republicans and all were the really bad, fascist, threats to ‘our democracy’? The red & black speech with the two Marines in the background?
Seems fantastic to us. We’re the good guys, right?
I keep thinking about those exit polls that showed young people breaking strong Democrat. Did they believe the Biden lies and falsehoods? That is very, very worrying for our future.
@Art Deco:There was no Republican candidate in the race.
I know, they couldn’t even get on the ballot. Probably they just needed a stronger candidate. Maybe they should have run DeSantis. I know it’s important to score Internet points with a “well AKSHUALLY” but you are not making a good case for the converse of my argument.
If enough people actually cared about the quality of the candidate to swing the election, they would not vote for dead ones. Only live ones. Even if Green.
Okay, Frederick, we’ll pretend you don’t have a man-crush on Trump if you insist you don’t. 😉
As I did, John Hinderaker expected a Red Tsunami. Today he wrote up his ruminations on the lack thereof. In particular:
____________________________________
“Our democracy” and “fascism” were code for Donald Trump. At this point, Trump is a giant anvil around the neck of the Republican Party. In many areas, likely most, he is absolute poison. To be associated with Trump is to lose. Pretty much everything he has done in the last two years has been not just ill-advised but massively destructive to the Republican Party and to the United States. He has teased a “big announcement” in the next few days. I hope he announces that he is moving to Bulgaria.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/11/it-could-have-been-worse.php
____________________________________
I’m more than inclined to agree.
My cousin was yuge on Trump in 2016 and remained so for Trump’s presidency. However, now my cousin would much rather Trump refrain from a 2024 run.
I can see many here agree. I wonder how prevalent this view is among Republican voters.
Older_and_Wheezier, can you point to one thing I’ve said in Trump’s favor, besides: “Trump’s one strength in 2016 was that the media could not define him for us because everyone had heard of him and had their own opinions… I don’t think Trump can pull that off a second time…”
No, I don’t believe you can. And here’s another case of what we are fighting against. You’re arguing against something I never said, and creating an impression I did say that in the minds of others, not sure what purpose you have in mind for doing so, but you are creating a fake me instead of engaging the real me.
Which is what the media did to Trump, and DeSantis, and will do to anyone else we nominate. They will invent a fictitious person and that fake person will be our candidate as far as the majority of the voters are concerned, because people who follow governors and sit up at night arguing about them in blog comments are in a small and aging minority.
Trump is not the cure but neither was he disease. Better candidates for which we vote harder will do sweet F.A. to changing the course this country is on. There is something wrong with the Republican brand. When a brand is toxic, it has to make big changes. At minimum. The public intellectuals blaming Trump have no desire to change this. They get paid doing things the way they are done now.
Which is why the candidate we actually run in 2024 is one of the last things we should worry about. Nothing wrong with DeSantis, it’s not his fault. Whatever team he assembles will have to have a plan for dealing with all these other factors having nothing to do with the candidate–but his team will be Establishment and they have no interest in doing anything but losing genteelly and go on kicking tax money to their friends.
such as the polls for Kari Lake. I hear there’s a chance she still might win, but if she does it will certainly be by a hair and there’s a very good chance she will lose
Kari Lake was on Tucker tonight. She says that there are 600,000 votes uncounted and most are from Republican suburbs of Phoenix. This was no coincidence. She also said 275,000 votes are voters who took mail in ballots to polling places because they did not trust the USPO. My wife and I did that in Tucson.
If that is true, she will probably win. I don’t know about Masters.
I know, they couldn’t even get on the ballot.
It’s likely a core city constituency where no one bothered. That’s quite common.
Neo writes long and very accurately, above.
One pointy of dispute is Trump in NH.
“Remember also that Trump didn’t win in New Hampshire in 2016 or 2020, and although it was very close in 2016 it wasn’t the least bit close in 2020. A Trumpian candidate wasn’t going to appeal to New Hampshire voters, whatever the reason.”
NOT THE LEAST BIT CLOSE? In 2020?
Apparently this is wrong. The State House did a hand recount of 10% of the ballots. It showed that — upscaling from 10% (therefore assuming this sample was representative) — Trump would have won NH.
There was that much mess from machine reader error and ballot adjudication to swing to Mr Potato Head.
And the margin was that close.
eGOP wants to blame the red puddle on Trump, and are very happy if they can destroy Maga and him, just as they did with the tea party.
Trump is still being censored by Google, Facebook, YouTube, etc. and that’s impacting his ability to break through the propaganda. And note the silence on the censorship by the gop establishment.
The gop overall ran mediocre campaign messaging. So many wrongs going on, and ran the old playbook.
Yancy made an insightful comment on another site. Something like, If Pa and Ga had been run with Florida election rules, Oz and Walker would have won.
TJ:
You failed to include a link, so there is no way to know exactly what you’re referring to.
In 2020, Biden won NH by about 7.3 percentage points. NH has only paper ballots and they are counted by mechanical machines that have been in use for decades. And in NH, 10% of the votes are ALREADY hand-counted and not machine-counted – all communities have that option.
Perhaps you’re referring to this? It has nothing to do with the Trump vote in 2020, and in fact even in the smaller local election that was very close, the problem did not alter that outcome:
More here about some of the details.
Frederick:
You write of DeSantis:
That doesn’t fit DeSantis at all, in my opinion. He has a tenacious bulldog interest in winning, and in Florida he has teams that have executed extremely well in that regard and others.
Behold, the hideous, the bizarre, the perverse, the brain-damaged and cognitively impaired are ascendant. Examples – such as this, this, and this – are known to all of us.
Along with celebrations of freakishness come rising levels of violent crime. I recently moved from a dangerous area to a much safer one. I urge you all to do the same if possible.
We are all flailing here, naturally.
Since any way one looks at it none of it makes sense.
And we look for those we can blame (and for some of us for those we MUST blame).
As I see it, only one thing is ABSOLUTELY certain: if the GOP will not be able to eliminate or control and /or effectively supervise the outrageous scope of mail-in voting, then there is very little hope for the party AND for the country.
My ruminations:
(1) The causes for the poor showing by the Republicans are manifold, and can’t be reduced to just one reason – there are several major factors (Trump “toxicity”, poor campaigns, unimpressive candidates, LIV and party-line-robot-voters, effective use of legal but unethical election rules, outright fraud, probably more); they act in tandem but have different weights in different states (sometimes the weight is zero). So arguing over which one factor was THE reason the Red Wave was a Trickle won’t settle much.
(2) Trump has been criticized for backing “unelectable” candidates on the basis of several high-profile losses. According to this post, he had an overall good track record.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/here-s-how-candidates-endorsed-by-trump-performed-in-the-midterm-elections/ar-AA13VaPz
Last time I did math, 17 is more than half of 25.
There have been 4 Trump-endorsed losers called (Bolduc, Malloy, Levy, and Oz), and 4 races are still undecided (Masters, Walker, Laxalt, Tshibaka).
There’s a possibility that some, if not most, of Trump’s winners would have won anyway even without his endorsement, but that assumes facts that haven’t yet been presented as evidence. IMO, it’s unfair to say Trump is toxic because some candidates he supported didn’t win and ignore all of the others who DID.
Lot of IFs in that last segment, but it shows how much the win/lose perception of Trump’s endorsements depends on where you plant your goal-posts.
A tangent:
(3) A complaint by one of Powerline’s commenters (that has not been addressed in Neo’s salon) was that Trump didn’t put any money behind his picks, which is not true.
It’s easy to get misinformation even from your own “side.”
Related (from the NY race):
“…Curtis Sliwa’s coverage of this election from his perch at WABC-Radio illustrates a couple of things:…”
https://instapundit.com/553231/
Grafs:
“…Curtis Sliwa’s coverage of this election from his perch at WABC-Radio illustrates a couple of things:
“1. That age, experience, and knowledge of history MATTER….deeply
and that
“2. What they **used to** preach at Columbia J School is so true: You have to GO THERE. You have to see everything from ground level, you have to walk the streets, you have to wear out your shoes, you have to keep your eyes and ears open.
“Sliwa, aged 68 (and 3/4), is the only talking head I know of who was skeptical of a Zeldin victory and his analysis this morning outlining how he arrived at that prediction is full of concrete, ground-level anecdote and knowledge of New York gubnatorial races past.
‘…The eternal verities ARE the eternal verities. Krime Wave Kathy Hockum won, he says, because she salted money all over upstate and then brought a ferocious old-fashioned, door-knocking ground game to “hipster millenial” (Curtis’s term) neighborhoods in Brooklyn. He saw both of these strategies in action with his own eyes because he’s not afraid of hard work and because he’s insatiably curious….
‘…So do not be intimidated. OWN your time on the planet with the arrogance it deserves….’
I had a question occur to me while reading some more pundits on why Trump ruined the big wave — of the races in which he did NOT endorse anyone (were there any?), what was the win-loss record?
Were there some “seats Republicans should have won” that they didn’t?
Rick Moran is swimming against the outgoing Red Tide.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2022/11/09/trump-wrongly-blamed-for-sup-par-gop-performance-n1644514
Kurt Schlichter is also going against the pundits’ zeitgeist – it’s not so much that Republicans had a sub-par performance, but that they set the “par” too high.
https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2022/11/09/that-could-have-gone-better-n2615747
Good analysis by Andrea Widberg:
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/11/the_red_wave_that_wasnt_an_election_postmortem.html
I’m very suspicious of the Dominion Machines, but I have seen nothing except Tucker’s dialogue, on the need to replace them.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/tucker-carlson-calls-for-an-end-to-using-electronic-voting-machines/ar-AA13Tne7
Of course Dominion has shown a willingness to sue anyone that maligns their machines, and depose them.
And from the “Can’t Kid a Kidder” files (cross-filed with the “Alternate Universe” file, “Brazen Balderdash” sub-folder):
‘Biden calls House GOP vow to investigate son Hunter’s business deals ‘almost comedy”;
‘ “I can’t control what they’re going to do,” Biden says. “All I can do is continue to try to make life better for the American people.” ‘—
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/biden-calls-house-gop-vow-investigate-son-hunters-business-deals-almost
That’s right: “continue to try to make life better for the American people”!!
Well, as “POTUS”, said “almost comedy”…
(I’m not saying the American People voted for IT—I have profound doubts about that; but…unfortunately they’re gonna get a whole lot more of IT…)
+ Bonus:
“Prominent pollster says time for America to mandate all ballots be counted on Election Day;
“Scott Rasmussen says 80% of Americans want to know who their elected officials are on Election Day and not have it take days.”
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/holdprominent-pollster-says-80-voters-think-all-votes-should-be-counted
To be sure, all the Democrats will have to do is fine-tune their “Advance Mail-In ballot methodology”. I believe we saw an example of that in PA after they realized they really didn’t have to take days to add votes AFTER the election—they could—SIMPLY!—do it BEFORE the election.
(Talk about streamlining!!…Or “[making] life better for the American people…”)
If you don’t know what I’m talking about:
https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/request-pennsylvania-republicans-mail-ballots-declined
https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/pa-supreme-court-bars-counting-incorrectly-dated-absentee-ballotshttps://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/fetterman-campaign-sues-pennsylvania-count-undated-misdated-ballots
https://www.newsweek.com/bidens-nearly-2m-mail-pennsylvania-votes-2020-would-now-unconstitutional-1673974
https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/09/how-pennsylvania-democrats-deliberately-stoked-2020-election-chaos/
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2022/10/11/pennsylvania-democrat-gets-to-keep-seat-despite-illegal-ballots-likely-handing-him-victory-n1636199
“They also elected a dead state representative. ”
Well, it is certainly a most rare case of gratitude: so many dead people have been able to vote…that I guess he just wanted to return the favor….
Andrea Widburg’s column, which Ray SoCa linked to, above, reflects my own profound depression about the state of our country.
I don’t accept the new racism, called “anti-racism.” I don’t accept the new definitions of human existence in which “gender” obliterates biology. I don’t accept the sexualization of children or the mutilation of children. I don’t accept the rejection of individual liberty and individual responsibility. Many Americans do accept these things, and label me “bad” because I don’t.
Link, again: https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/11/the_red_wave_that_wasnt_an_election_postmortem.html
If one is inclined to see the glass half-full, perhaps the midterms spell the end of the Trump 2024 campaign and will pave the way for a younger candidate, such as DeSantis, with less baggage and less ego, which may be a far, far better thing for the Republican Party and the United States.
This morning John Hinderaker followed up his previous post on the midterms:
_____________________________________________
Trump is toast. He has a few fanatical followers, most of whom were never reliable Republicans or even consistent voters. They can go down with his ship if they want to. But the rest of us need to look ahead and begin the process of choosing a vastly better candidate in 2024. That will be a low bar.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/11/goodbye-donald.php
_____________________________________________
Like Mike K in yesterday’s Fetterman topic, I see a severe recession coming and other problems. Whether Trump is to blame for the disappointing midterm results or not, he could only be a one-term president and even his Trumpian vitality will inevitably be eroded by Father Time.
Not to mention he would be caught up in yet another series of distracting knife fights with Democrats and Never Trumpers.
I know the politics of some friends/relatives, not many, but some. And I know what they believe.
Of those voting dem, two of three think the Mueller Report proved Trump/Russia collusion.
One of the above two and another I’ve seen driving alone, fully masked.
One thinks the towns on the west coast of Michigan’s lower peninsula–which started to get big money after the Civil War and people could go there for relief during the summer–are cooler than Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, Gary, etc. because of global warming.
Two know that Russia, China, and India aren’t going along with zero-carbon nonsense and hence there’s nothing we can do…presuming it were ever a thing worth doing–but insist we all be made to do stupid stuff anyway.
All use “Trump”as an expletive and discussion-ending triumph.
In discussions of gun control, when asked about disarming criminals, all look blank until they figure out a way to deflect or get emotional. Never occurs to them it might help sell the thing to at least fake it.
“education” is solely sufficient classroom seat time from which one can regurgitate at least three-quarters of what’s thrown out to qualify for a Bachelors degree. No other experience, skill set, wisdom, other institution of learning counts in the least.
I could go on. But there’s a question. How do you get to be this stupid? “stupid” means a kind of lack of knowledge–not a good definition since that implies missed opportunities–or cognitive deficits.
But this seems different. It seems like an aggressive refusal to see the obvious.
And the chin-jutting defiant refusal to see the obvious seems….like a conscious choice.
I should say that all of them are removed by circumstance from the results of their votes and opinions.
No man is indispensable.
@neo:That doesn’t fit DeSantis at all, in my opinion. He has a tenacious bulldog interest in winning, and in Florida he has teams that have executed extremely well in that regard and others.
Let’s hope so, but when he campaigns nationally it will not be all Florida people he has to work with–that would be a failure, too. He’ll have to work with teams in other states and teams that are national in scope. I’m not sure it’s possible to assemble such an organization in two years that is not heavily dominated by the Swamp, happy to be proven wrong.
Again, the one Presidential election in the last 7 where the Republican party earned a majority of votes was 2004. Something is self-evidently badly wrong with how this party works nationally. Nothing will change until Republican voters force it to change, because the money has been flowing to those who made the situation what it is and keep it that way.
In the meantime, not only the national media but the Federal government has the next two years to figure out how to neutralize DeSantis. Like I said, the candidate is not first.
huxley, I earnestly hope the glass half-full scenario you outline is correct. We are headed for worst economic times soon.
I hope this post means you are out of Florida safely.
Several things to consider…perhaps:
Popular vote—
https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/1590557367825203201?cxt=HHwWgoDQgfff5ZIsAAAA
Mitch McConnell & Alaska—
https://twitter.com/ITGuy1959/status/1590551490284105731?cxt=HHwWhsDR9eeJ45IsAAAA
DeSantis—
https://twitter.com/MattRinaldiTX/status/1590392452552458240?cxt=HHwWgIDQvczgmpIsAAAA
Thanks neo – I wonder if Manchin doesn’t suffer a bit of regret about moving from the Governor’s mansion to the Senate (although he was term-limited, if I recall.)
Since I didn’t get to watch last night I just watched Tucker’s monologue this morning. I think he parallels some of what Neo posited. Some points:
1)My own opinion: Due to the takeover of education at all levels, the US is now center-left, and no longer center-right. This is easily seen by the voting of the 18-39 yr olds as D +28%!!
2) Tucker stated two primary issues facing the GOP: the inability of getting heard due the MSM being the propaganda arm of the Democrats. And second, the bastardization of the voting system put in place due to Covid.
I think he has the right of it. The reforms DeSantis and the FL GOP put in to tighten the election process in Florida should be a model for every GOP controlled state; it will never happen in any blue state, so write those off.
The media is a long vexing problem. The only solution I could see happening is the Musk model. Very rich conservatives need to literally buy media and then allow the GOP to get its message out.
The education system is lost, and has the most serious long term consequences. To fix it would require an influx of conservatives into the system and even if that would happen it would take 20 years for the effect to be seen.
Given the above, I’m not optimistic (though I hardly ever am). Things have not looked good since Obama, but Covid gave the left the opportunity to take over the entire system, and they are very close to doing so. Given my age, I won’t have to live too long with this mess. My daughters on the other hand….. so sad.
Neo, it’s still too soon to count out Trump. If he wants to run, and runs, he’s quite likely to win the GOP (registered GOP voters) primary. He can, and will, attract huge numbers of independent working class voters.
Also huge anti-Trump publicity and lies, with only meagre support from GOPe elite Reps. Such elite Reps, w/o Trump, failed to flip Dem seats, also.
See your own explanation (esp #3 on New Hampshire).
Trump fan-boy Don Surber also agrees with you that Trump’s time is past.
https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2022/11/life-after-trump.html
I think both of you are underestimating the Democrat Derangement Syndrome – Dems have demonized Republicans as much as Nazis demonized Jews.
The demonization will continue if Trump continues – but it will also continue without Trump. Trump is certain to fight it; and be popular among non-elite Reps while doing so.
I believe DeSantis will also fight it, and be far more popular among college educated Rep voters – but far less popular among non-college educated Rep voters. So in a Rep primary, I’d still support the flawed, ego-centric, but great at rallies Trump. Since he’s living in Florida now, DeSantis can’t be his VP, tho.
I’m going to share Huxley’s optimism.
Prior to Tuesday, I thought that the poor state of the country and Democrats’ unpopularity might be enough to give Trump a puncher’s chance of scratching out a narrow victory in the 2024 general election. I’m very skeptical of that scenario now. The state of the country today and the unpopularity of Biden wasn’t enough to drag even one of Oz, Mastriano, Masters, Lake, Walker, et al. over the finish line, and it took $35 million from Cocaine Mitch to save Vance. Face it folks, Trump is not going to win the presidency in 2024. If he wins the Republican nomination he will just guarantee four years of President Kamala.
I’m more optimisic than I’ve ever been that all but the most diehard Trumpers will be able to realize that now before we end up nominating him again in 2024. I’m also optimistic about the quality of leadership that will suceed Trump. We’re not going back Mitt Romney or George Bush 2.0. And that’s a good thing!
(I also hope that we all begin to realize that a Sen. Toomey or Sen. O’Dea who votes the way we like 80% of the time is a whole heck of a lot better than Sen. Fetterman or even Sen. Bennett. The choice was not between, say, Mastriano and Barletta. It was actually between Barletta and Shapiro. (Shapiro’s money supporting Mastriano was actually money spent on himself.) Same with 2024 – the choice isn’t Trump or pick one of DeSantis or Pompeo, or Youngkin or whoever. It is between pick one of DeSantis et al. and Kamala Harris.)
@physicsguy:The education system is lost, and has the most serious long term consequences.
In many states, it’s given up pretending to educate students and a lot of parents figured that out. During COVID they got to see how little anyone was actually learning, and public schools aren’t even doing the day care function reliably anymore, with how many teachers no longer show up when they feel like it and the number of instruction days cut.
In the last two years many families are pulling kids out of public schools AND conservatives are starting to take over school boards.
Yes, it will take 20 years. It did not get this way overnight, it took many decades to do and it will take decades, likely, to undo. And it must be done.
@Bauxite:I also hope that we all begin to realize that a Sen. Toomey or Sen. O’Dea who votes the way we like 80% of the time is a whole heck of a lot better
This is why Republicans never change anything, right here. First, the 80% of the time is a meaningless metric because they don’t go along with the things that actually matter, for example, enforcing the immigration laws. Second, the “mavericks” get to wag the dog and get outsized power and influence, and occasionally spectacularly tank things important to Republican voters; in other words rewarded for breaking ranks and voting with the Dems on big issues.
The real business of Congress is appropriations, YOUR tax money for THEIR friends, once off the campaign trail that is what they spend their time doing. They need to just make enough vague promises that they can get back in and do it for another 2 or 6 years, and they don’t need a majority to do their real job. They just need enough of a minority to gum things up if not bought off!
This is why Republicans don’t turn out when everything seems to be going their way. Democrats in Congress deliver for their voters on a majority of one by hook or by crook–maybe reconciliation or other procedural shenanigans… Republicans never deliver this for their voters. They deliver tax cuts and opposition theater and sometimes Supreme Court judges–sometimes.
We’ve been doing it your way, Bauxite, for 75 years, and here we are. This time the mavericks will really let us kick that football I guess? No. The Republican Party is the party of managed, token opposition and Republican voters need to clean it out and get enough people who really want to change things in there, or nothing is going to happen.
As we’re herded into boxcars we’ll still be thinking that with better candidates and more turnout we’ll get them next time…
Thinking more about what happened. Biden is as unpopular as ever. What Republican candidates in many places failed to do was to convince voters that Congress was jointly responsible with Biden for the economic mess.
Why did the GOP allow this?
“Lee Zeldin in New York, who is not an extremist, was outspent 7 to 1, and dishonest ads had a big impact.”
https://www.independentsentinel.com/hey-gop-forget-waves-and-tsunamis-were-winning/
Yes, [reforming education] will take 20 years. It did not get this way overnight, it took many decades to do and it will take decades, likely, to undo. And it must be done.
–Frederick
Clearly it will take more than a few years. But if the hard times that many of us see coming do arrive, I believe that will blow away much of the woke BS and unreal Democrat policies.
_____________________________
Hard times create strong people.
Strong people create good times.
Good times create weak people.
Weak people create hard times.
_____________________________
Or as Voltaire put it:
_____________________________
History is filled with the sound of silken slippers going downstairs and wooden shoes coming up.
Frederick: “Yes, it will take 20 years. It did not get this way overnight, it took many decades to do and it will take decades, likely, to undo. And it must be done.”
My point is that we don’t have 20 years. We will be lost way before then….one year, maybe two to three at most.
The younger generation that voted predominantly anti Gop, they get most of their news off the Internet.
With most major internet sites heavily to the Left, and censoring Wrong Think, and promoting “Good Think”. We have in many ways created a 1984 Society, that uses a lot of propaganda and censorship, and peer pressure, and financial pressure (esg – Blackrock) to achieve this level of brainwashing / doublethink.
And somehow we have a lot of Doublethink.
“Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them.”
The rush by some conservatives to abandon rational thought is scary. People need to slow down, let their emotions, superstitions, and animus calm down, and try to engage their brains.
This visceral, irrational need to blame Trump isn’t healthy.
I like DeSantis. I prefer him to Trump for 2024. I have for a couple of years. I didn’t vote for Trump in the May 2016 primary. I voted for Cruz and got extremely angry at my brother for voting Trump. I didn’t like Trump’s personality at all. I am not a Trump worshiper.
Is there anything more annoying that having a liberal conclude that you worship Trump or are brainwashed by Faux News simply because you disagree with the liberal narrative? Now we are seeing the same stupid slanders from those on the right who assume that anyone who doesn’t agree with them that Trump is killing the GOP is clearly into hero worship. They need to realize it damages their credibility.
1. No one should take reported vote totals as indicative of what voters did. If you use them as “proof” for any proposition you wish to advance, you lose credibility. Don’t waste your credibility.
2. Every election is local. Sure, Trump has some influence. But he’s neither as responsible for success as he thinks, nor is he as responsible for an election loss as his haters want to believe.
3. No one in Pa voted for Fetterman because the GOP nominee wasn’t the best candidate possible. Just stop. He’s a vegetable. Can we try some basic logic here? Even a wee bit? The Pa outcome isn’t Oz’ fault and it isn’t Trump’s fault. It’s a perfect illustration of the election integrity nightmare that the Democrats have imposed on our banana republic.
4. Why would polls with a long history of strong D bias and methodology show a red wave only to have the election totals differ? Fraud. Period. Especially when so many conservative voters refuse to reveal their preferences to pollsters. Just as in 2020, we are seeing results that make no sense. We are getting results that defy logic, defy all existing evidence, defy decades of political knowledge and understanding. The poker game is rigged. We’re the marks. STOP playing their game!
Instead of wasting anger and pixels blasting away at Trump, why not start asking the obvious questions about how we fix our broken elections, broken news and tech, broken law enforcement disasters? We have a gang of criminals using the government to spy, steal, cheat, persecute and imprison innocents. That’s not the fault of Donald Trump. He has been the most successful person of all in fighting back. One of the few. Focus your fire where it needs to go. You can support DeSantis for 2024 without knifing Trump in the back.
McConnell has done far more to hurt the GOP in elections than Trump. We can do something about that. Aim your fire at him.
Sorry Stan. Trump attacked his GOP rivals first. He bought into the red wave hype so much, he thought he could get away with the attacks BEFORE the election. It is the supporters who noted and calling Trump out for the behavior, not the rivals. If you don’t like bad behavior being called out, then don’t behave that way. Stop your crying and lashing out. It is as unpersuasive as the media claiming they know why Trump is out of favor.
One more thing. The most important thing. Even if the GOP can nominate and elect the most perfect candidate possible, he can’t fix the FBI, the DOJ, the IRS, the judiciary, the CDC and FDA, the news and the internet. He can’t fix the rigged election set ups around the country.
I get the feeling from some that they have a hope that somehow the right Republican president with the perfect recipe of unicorn farts can make the nightmare go away.
The crooks are deeply entrenched. The public doesn’t understand. It’s gonna take some serious hand to hand fighting in the trenches. The best general ever couldn’t do it alone. We have to do it. One soldier at a time.
Leland,
Criticize Trump for mistakes. Fine. It’s a long, long way from a mistake to being responsible for election results that Trump haters don’t like. Just stop. Trump’s DeSantis blunder didn’t cost us a single vote on Tuesday. Not one.
I’m still no closer to understanding what went wrong in these close races.
I hear that there was an uncommonly large young voter turnout for a midterm election. Does that imply that perhaps abortion played a much larger role in these races than many have thought? When I think about the possible reasons a younger person might be motivated to go out and vote, it seems reasonable.
How much of the Republican underperformance be fairly assigned to Trump? How many persuadable voters decided to vote for the (D) candidate rather than the (R) loargely because they dislike Trump for whatever reason? And could those people be persuaded to vote for Trump in 2024? Or could they be persuaded to vote Desantis or whomever? Are they winnable at all? And if not, does that mean there’s no way for any Republican candidate to win the Presidency in 2024 no matter how awful the Demcrat candidate may be?
IIRC, Frederick was a long-time employee of the federal government. Not just the federal government, but the U.S. State Department. Which is joined at the hip to the National Security Blob, home of the all-important “interagency consensus”; and the “Intelligence” Community, which (as we all know) is filled to the brim with fine, fine Americans and dedicated public servants.
In other words, he had a view of the D.C. Swamp over time from one of its swampiest hummocks. He knows its corrupting power and its reach. So when he expresses reservations about professional politicians in general, but especially those who have even the faintest whiff of Swamp-friendliness about them, I take his reservations seriously.
The difference between Trump and DeSantis is the difference between a wrecking-ball and a rapier. Like Frederick (and Detective Ed Exley in “L.A. Confidential”), I favor the wrecking-ball approach to corrupt institutions. However, I recognize DeSantis’ superior skill at using the Establishment’s tools to dismantle the Establishment’s house (to paraphrase a favorite Lefty trope). Here’s just one example:
https://floridianpress.com/2022/11/desantis-pushes-back-against-biden-doj-monitors-interfering-in-floridas-election/
Much more of this kind of thing, please, in Florida and other states. I hope DeSantis runs in 2024. I’d sure as hell vote for him.
To the degree that really matters, because I agree with Frederick on two other points:
1. Candidate quality doesn’t matter. For many of our fellow citizens, candidates are simply interchangeable parts in the machine. Brain-damaged parts can replaced, so the Left and its clients will vote for the machine every time, no matter who the Republican candidate is. Which leads to…
2. We’re not voting our way out of this. The problems in this country are much deeper than flaws in the election system, although those are foundational and need to be fixed in the red states (the blue states are a lost cause). To quote Kurt Schlichter from the piece that AesopFan linked to above:
“Some people just don’t want freedom–they liked the COVID crap and support woke fascism. There are a lot of these people, though not in Florida, and liberals are gonna liberal no matter how poor and miserable that makes them and everyone else.”
Minor correction: they *loved* the COVID crap. Loved it. I saw it even here, in a deep red state. The American character has changed. Many–perhaps most?–people in this country don’t care about or value freedom and individual autonomy. That certainly appears to be true of most people in the 18-44 age cohort. No fixing that, I fear. Not even if we had 20 years of being in charge of the education system.
No worries, Stan. I’m now Never-Cornyn. I’ve never been Never-Trump. I hold the NRSC more responsible for the inability to field electable candidates than Trump. I’d be Never-Scott or Never-McConnell, but I never voted for them anyway, because I don’t live in their state. But Cornyn, well if “true conservatives” can vote for a Democrat over holding their nose for Trump or Trump endorsed candidate, then not voting for their established pick is only half as bad.
I hear that there was an uncommonly large young voter turnout for a midterm election. Does that imply that perhaps abortion played a much larger role in these races than many have thought? When I think about the possible reasons a younger person might be motivated to go out and vote, it seems reasonable. — Nonapod
1) In a great many areas, they did not need the motivation to go out and vote. Rather, they merely filled out a ballot mailed to their residence & dropped it in the mail. Democrats frequently wail about vote suppression, but they truth they realize is that the difference between moderately easy voting and extremely easy voting matters greatly to low-motivation voters. That is, most young voters.
2) Turnout & Abortion. Dems always put more effort into get-out-the-vote campaigns than Republicans. Generally, in recent history, the celebrity of the Presidential races pulls more low-information and low-motivation members of the Dem base out to vote. The more boring mid-terms tend to moot the Dem’s superior GOTV efforts. Enter the Dobbs decision placing abortion front and center. The low-motivation Dem voters are now motivated. Plus, there is a synergy between 1) and 2). Plus, Dems spent much more money.
_______
huxley is optimistic and/because there is a severe recession coming? Sheesh.
physicsguy thinks the country only has a couple years left before Armageddon?
_______
I found that A. Widburg article interesting but for different reasons.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/11/the_red_wave_that_wasnt_an_election_postmortem.html
In a way, the easiest answer is that our election system is completely corrupt. It’s easy to blame the GOP for letting that happen, but Mollie Hemingway reminds us that a corrupt judge and a forty-year-long consent decree meant that, beginning in 1981, “The RNC had been prohibited by law from helping with poll watcher efforts or nearly any voting-related litigation.”
That forty-year period gave the Democrats the ability to lay the groundwork for a fortress of election corruption. Then, thanks to COVID, the Democrats were able to build high walls for that fortress, walls built from mail-in ballots; drop boxes; …
There was a 40 year long consent decree? Gads. Prior to that article I did see Harmeet Dillon on Fox talking about this and stating that the RNC & their lawyers were on the job again in this election cycle. Does this mean the election outcome would have been even worse if the consent decree was still in effect?
Ms. Widburg ends her article with this addendum.
UPDATE: I forgot to add that the GOP is a completely useless, feckless party. The House and Senate leaders seem comfortable as losers, where they get the perks without the responsibility. They’ve also done nothing to fight against known election fraud, whether it occurs semi-legally (via mail-in ballots or drop-boxes) or completely illegally. They bear a large burden of the responsibility for this disastrous outcome.
Amen. She echoes something that Marc Theisen said on-air on election night.
@physics guy:
I agree with you the country has been lost. PA elected a Democratic, brain-damaged, previously inconsequential Fetterman to the US Senate. That is a grave symptom of decline.
The young, misguided by the Leftist educators, will inherit the USA, favor socialism, and they will get it good and hard.
I am glad to be old. I look forward to escaping the American decline forever, but my kids and grandkids I cannot save.
he was somewhat prescient,
https://jeffgoldstein.substack.com/p/election-day-shrapnel
@hubert:IIRC, Frederick was a long-time employee of the federal government.
You do NOT recall correctly. I have never worked for the Federal government. I was a physicist at a couple different state universities for a few years, and since then I’ve been working in the private sector, in finance. My view of the Swamp is formed by what I’ve learned dealing with state institutions from both my public sector and private sector careers, as well as in my personal life being related to quite a few state employees. The states have shallower swamps but the dynamic is the same: unelected administrators’ whims have the force of law, and the legislators are mostly focused on appropriations except when they have to campaign.
I know you didn’t say those things to discredit me, but do be cautious about attributing bios to people to explain their views…
Frederick: my apologies to you and the forum. My mistake. And point taken re: bios and views.
Polls have generally shown a bias towards the Democrats. People assumed that would be true this time and assumed Republicans would poll 3 or 4 points better than the polls indicated. They also assumed that the tightening of the races would continue and the trend would give Republicans that last minute boost, so it wasn’t absurd to assume that Zeldin could win. People who looked around at the state of the economy certainly thought it might be possible, but it didn’t happen.
I’m not sure Trump ever had great political instincts. He was in the right place at the right time and he fit the mood of the day, but some of his appointments were so bad that one could see that his instincts weren’t that good. That applies to his picks this year as well. Still, in a lot of cases there weren’t other good candidates to pick. A lot of seats just weren’t winnable. Republicans who kept their distance from Trump still went down.
Clearly, Trump’s also a lot better when things are on the upswing and going his way. He doesn’t react to setbacks very well. His comebacks in real estate and entertainment, fields he understood very well, were impressive, but I don’t know that he has what it takes to do the same in politics. I’ll miss him when he’s gone and it’s back to politics as usual. It wasn’t just that Trump was entertaining. He also addressed concerns that politicians ignored, and he was able to actually do something about problems that we’d been living with for decades. It’s strange that the showman and egotistical show-off may have been able to achieve more than the professional politicians do.
Abraxas:
Yes, I know about polls and sampling.
It wasn’t a stretch to imagine that might be the case this time – for example, that Zeldin would win. It was definitely a stretch to expect it.
@Hubert: No big deal. But I or anyone else posting here could be a child, a paid Russian troll, a chatbot, a homeless person killing time at the library while waiting for his porn to start streaming… it’s not about who says it, and it really can’t be, because what’s online is largely not real and almost never what it seems to be.
Some thoughts about the future of the MAGA/America First movement.
Like the Tea Party before, a significant portion of Republicans in congress would like the newest iteration of populism to wither on the vine, all the while giving lip service to the principles. This should temper our attitudes toward President Trump. At this point we don’t know which of those principles Governor DeSantis enthusiastically supports.
President Trump was correct to support candidates that genuinely support MAGA principles. It’s the only way long term, lasting changes will happen in Washington. If Conservatives run the table with Masters/Laxalt/Walker, the President’s picks have performed well. We need to analyze where these candidates performed well to give us an idea if the President can perform well in the five or six states crucial to a MAGA victory.
If Lake prevails in Arizona, it’s reasonable to expect changes will be made to that state’s voting process.
I think it’s fair to conclude that President Trump’s MAGA policies were partly responsible to moving Ohio from purple to red. If Pennsylvania were to reform their broken/corrupt voting system, does it follow that Pennsylvania would follow Ohio and vote for policies that support blue collar/manufacturing/energy jobs? Dr. Oz was an outlier, given his carpetbagger status. Did his Muslim religion affect votes?
As others have noted, abortion played a significant role in some states and among the 18-39 age group.
Democrats kept Trump front and center in the news with J6/MAL/Trump Organization and the constant assertion almost daily that he was days away from being charged with treason/sedition/bad hair. We can’t ignore the corrosive effect.
Did Republicans campaign on positive America First policies and how voting for them would make their constituents lives better, or just on how poorly Democrats had done?
Murray ran on abortion. Did Lindsey Graham’s abortion stunt help or hurt? I think it hurt and I think it was intended to hurt. More failure theater from those grifting @#$&bags.
i think that a fair bet, washington has been stupid since 2002, at least, in a stronger undertow it would have brought down rubio, who was stupid,
Chases Eagles, I thought that initially– but I think he was trying to give Republicans a talking point in purple/blue states that Republicans would support reasonable abortion laws that strike a balance between women and the unborn child.
I’ve read people questioning the timing of the SC Dobbs decision. But that assumes the SC should be motivated to support one parties interests. As it turns out, the timing was bad.
Six states voted on abortion measures. Michigan was the only state that it may have affected the outcome of other races.
huxley is optimistic and/because there is a severe recession coming? Sheesh.
TommyJay:
I’m generally optimistic, partly by nature, partly because I’ve been trained that way. Tony told me so. 🙂
________________________________________
What if every single problem really was a gift in your life…even the pain.
–Tony Robbins, “What If?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyPRxzedaQE
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Some pretty harsh things have happened in my life. I’ve found meaning in them and turned them around.
Individuals can have problems or make mistakes and then can learn from them. Surely you’ve seen that in your life and others’ lives. It’s an important way we grow.
I believe nations can too.
Yeah, it’s a funny way to look at things, but it works for me.