“’duplicitous’” – that’s a lookup for me: ‘Duplicitous means being dishonest and deceitful by hiding your true feelings or plans. Key concepts include being two-faced, acting like a double-dealer, and showing one face while hiding another.’ He expected honesty from Iranian leadership?!
Anyway, Iran is tough … their Gulf neighbors had depended on American protection for way too long, apparently, and should’ve had their *OWN* oil sites/structures better protected, IMHO.
‘Nothing gets through to Iran, unless we want it to, and nothing will get through, unless a Deal, or Total Surrender, is accomplished,’ he said.
I don’t trust Trump much at all, and his military leadership abilities have always been lacking & horrid (IMHO), but we’re in it now and need to bring the Iranian leadership to its knees—or send them to their graves.
He said Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, had asked him to postpone the attack … ‘When the allies asked to call it off, you gotta say, ‘Well, let’s see.’ And the reason why they asked is because I think there’s a deal.’
Iran is tough, but they got their buttocks kicked pretty quickly…their military buttocks, anyway. One needs to listen to allies’ concerns. What gets me is the “I think there’s a deal” – as in is he still stuck on that Apprentice show mentality whilst trying to run a country?
And media is of course not helping, including Daily Mail with the “after desperate leaked email shows his war chiefs in panic mode” in the headline.
The President spoke about Iran as reports surrounding an email sent by US Central Command’s intelligence branch requesting new ideas to help pressure Iran.
‘We are looking for new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran,’ the email to military officials and service members read.
A CENTCOM spokesperson responded to the email’s contents and defended the message as part of the organizations ‘long history of thinking and working in innovative ways.’
That is apparently the “desperate leaked email” they are referring to (?!). Dad (3 CIB’s) always said the American military could have a leader killed in action and another would be ready to take his place…unlike most other world militaries. He said it better than I can remember tho…anyway, I don’t see anything “desperate” about it.
Shouldn’t one wear a tuxedo for this exercise?
Did anyone else see that Microsoft grew by $490 billion in a single day last week? Thats nearly the size of Denmark. And there’s this from today’s WSJ:
Today America is in the midst of the greatest epoch of wealth creation the world has ever known. Our history is one of innovation, and we are all richer because of it.
Not just America really, though we have clearly led the way. The global wealth that has been created in the last 100 years has been absolutely astounding. The how’s and whys of it should be the most thoroughly studied thing in the world. Our universities should be obsessed with it. Clearly, they are not.
@F: I guarantee I will NOT be addicted to the penguin. Nice try, though.
Geez. I thought F was foreswearing Linux! 🙂
@Mike Plaiss: Not just America really, though we have clearly led the way. The global wealth that has been created in the last 100 years has been absolutely astounding.
And Europe has missed most of that boat. Instead of innovation it pushes regulation as its superpower.
They have chosen poorly.
Which reminds me – remember, economic growth is a national security issue.
Because the left is obsessed with anyone becoming relatively wealthy, overlooking the enormous across-the-board increase in living standards that even modestly unbridled capitalism brings. And too many of those relatively wealthy join the chorus, evidently believing that the crocodile will eat them last.
”And Europe has missed most of that boat. Instead of innovation it pushes regulation as its superpower.”
This came to me (online) from a European businessman:
“America innovates, China imitates, and Europe regulates.”
There’s a lot of truth in that short statement.
Did anyone else see that Microsoft grew by $490 billion in a single day last week? — Mike Plaiss
Yep. It’s my biggest single stock position. 😉 Too big probably.
It’s been continuing to climb over the last 3 days. Up 25% in 3 days now. Though it’s still down by about 11.5% from its blow-off-top at the end of last October. It is a member of the vaunted “Magnificent 7.”
Most of those Mag7 stocks have fallen from favor, especially MSFT which took almost a 50% decline after the top. Until now that is. It’s quite wild. Gyrations of nearly $2T in MSFT alone.
The big and supposedly smart investors have been aghast at the magnitude of the AI spending, and will the companies get a reasonable ROI (return)? Another factor is lots of folks talking into their Android phone (speech to text) to initiate AI queries, and almost all of those go to Alphabet’s Gemini, not Co-Pilot.
I’m expecting a serious near-term AI correction in the markets.
Ai isn’t bogus anymore than the internet was, but IMO it has gotten ahead of its skis.
Did anyone else see that Microsoft grew by $490 billion in a single day last week? – Mike Plaiss
I’m always the bear.
That raises an interesting question. The last few weeks Elon Musk’s net worth has dropped about $300 billion to around $700 billion. It might come back in the next few months. He has less than $1 billion in cash/cash equivalents.
So a lot of the wealth in the US or the world is based on perception/trust. The “wealth” of the stock market dropped about 50% as a result of the financial crisis of 2008.
I’m sure you all are aware of this, but sometimes we lose sight of the risks.
Numbers correction: It was a 38% decline resulting in $1.5T devaluation.
I have expressly forbidden ballet posts. You will repent.
I’m expecting a serious near-term AI correction in the markets.
Ai isn’t bogus anymore than the internet was, but IMO it has gotten ahead of its skis. — huxley
There certainly could be another larger correction, but we’ve already had a very big one.
As with the dotcom boom/bust, there will probably be a shakeout, with a very few winners and a bunch of losers, but I think AI is a good bet overall. If you put $1000 in QQQ (the Nasdaq composite) at the beginning in 1999 (before the boom/bust) you’d still have gotten a 10% annual return, even though you would have lost about 60% in the bust (ask me how I know).
The July correction was chip stocks. AI is still to come.
As to Microsoft, how much of it’s profits come from the Cloud? I view the Cloud as a legal extortion scheme. “It’d be a shame if all those photos on the cloud got locked up– why don’t you just buy more storage?”
My wife’s cloud account was nearly full. It’s nearly impossible to clear it out (at least to my non-savvy abilities). You try and delete pictures off her computer and the cloud immediately restores them.
I finally gave up and bought more storage– though someday I’m going to remove them from the cloud and backup to a 1 tb ssd portable drive– and then delete that cloud account.
Regarding stock and AI and Microsoft fortunes.
It’s summer, and the volumes trading overall are a fraction of average. See you in September!
“Sell in May and go away”?
The invasion of Spain via Cueta gets worse. The new Muslims are not leaving, but protesting. And the propaganda media merely covers for the political lies being told.
Benny Johnson has a roundup of video and text from X.com
“E.U. Governments Are LYING: Muslim Invasion of Spain Getting WORSE…Turns VIOLENT! Citizens REVOLT” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQtYmmZlSXM
The Left enables these lies, while invading Muslim’s know they bring conquest through their religion. It is called ‘Hijrah’, which is Islamic migration for the purpose of conquest.
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s plan for city-run grocery stores is still a ways away from becoming reality, but new qualifications are sparking backlash.
The controversy centers on a possible ID or membership system that could be required for shoppers to access discounted goods — a move critics say clashes with arguments against voter ID laws.
.. snip .. Former Los Angeles GOP mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt accused Mamdani of hypocrisy over the proposed ID system, writing:
Racist Commie Mamdani is going to make you show ID in his markets. You want your government-subsidized arugula? Show your papers! Ask for ID to vote? BIGOT!!!’
I’m stupid enough looking, I don’t need to walk.like a penguin and prove it.
Might the DSA have caused this rare display of sanity?
“Because they have the operational [on-the-ground] support of CAIR, SJP and the 186 NGOs that run the Islamist pipeline from college to office.”– https://instapundit.com/814233/
Regarding stock and AI and Microsoft fortunes.
It’s summer, and the volumes trading overall are a fraction of average. See you in September! — TJ
Brian E on August 3, 2026 at 7:54 pm said:
“Sell in May and go away”?
Reasonable thoughts! I have all these new music oriented friends and several months ago I was talking to the boyfriend of an avid music lover. “What occupies your days Tommy?” he asked. “I dabble with investing, and watch the markets in the morning,” I replied. I had forgotten that he had been an investment professional. He gives me the spiel: “How do you plan to beat the market with your efforts?” Blah, blah, blah.
So this is the Efficient Market Hypothesis. When you get lots of highly intelligent and motivated investors in a large marketplace, then the market values display an uncanny brilliance for being correct, or nearly perfect. OK. Nice hypothesis. More active investors in the fall should be better at achieving this than light trading in the summer. Check.
Unfortunately, the big money is in institutional or otherwise giant investment funds, and there are so many reasons why they have counterproductive motivations. I’ll skip the many convoluted reasons, and state: Read old Warren Buffet discussions on the topic. I love his old commentary on applying math and statistics to investing. (I should say, stupidly applying math and stats.)
I actually met a guy who runs a hedge fund, which in reality was mostly his own money managed with all the tools at a hedge fund’s disposal. Now that guy almost certainly beats the pants off of anything I can accomplish. But he’s a rarity, at least in market dollar terms. When you manage other people’s money, things get difficult quickly.
Back to Microsoft: Here are a few quickies from Morgan Stanley’s analysis post earnings results.
Key takeaways
Microsoft’s 4Q26 results delivered broad-based upside, with $90.0B revenue (+18% YoY) and operating income of $40.60B beating consensus by 4.2%.
Azure growth accelerated four points sequentially to 43% (cc), beating the 39–40% guide, with management citing CPU/GPU efficiency and faster build times.
Azure’s outlook strengthened, with guidance for ~45% constant-currency growth in 1Q27 and a reiteration that F1H27 growth should accelerate vs F2H26.
M365 Copilot reached over 30MM paid seats, up from over 20MM last quarter, as ~10MM net adds beat expectations closer to ~6MM by a wide margin.
Margins held up despite AI build: gross margin 67.2%, operating margin 45.1%; FY27 calls for double-digit EBIT growth and margins down less than one point.
MSFT spent 10’s of billions on AI and their margins are down by less than 1%. What a cash cow!
Much of that cash cow is Azure and Teams. Cloud based, yes. But much much more than OneDrive storage. It’s the facilitation of corporate team collaboration.
Tommy Jay, sell in May and go away has been around for almost 100 years in the US stock market. I didn’t know but it was an adage for more than 200 years in Britain, where it was “sell in May and go away, come back on St. Legers Day”. Summers have resulted light/volatile trading for a long time.
I think it was Bill Maher who said Spain is like California: people are pouring over the border, and everyone there speaks Spanish!
I guarantee I will NOT be addicted to the penguin. Nice try, though.
Trump REJECTS Iran’s ‘duplicitous’ claims that peace talks aren’t happening
“’duplicitous’” – that’s a lookup for me: ‘Duplicitous means being dishonest and deceitful by hiding your true feelings or plans. Key concepts include being two-faced, acting like a double-dealer, and showing one face while hiding another.’ He expected honesty from Iranian leadership?!
Anyway, Iran is tough … their Gulf neighbors had depended on American protection for way too long, apparently, and should’ve had their *OWN* oil sites/structures better protected, IMHO.
I don’t trust Trump much at all, and his military leadership abilities have always been lacking & horrid (IMHO), but we’re in it now and need to bring the Iranian leadership to its knees—or send them to their graves.
Iran is tough, but they got their buttocks kicked pretty quickly…their military buttocks, anyway. One needs to listen to allies’ concerns. What gets me is the “I think there’s a deal” – as in is he still stuck on that Apprentice show mentality whilst trying to run a country?
And media is of course not helping, including Daily Mail with the “after desperate leaked email shows his war chiefs in panic mode” in the headline.
That is apparently the “desperate leaked email” they are referring to (?!). Dad (3 CIB’s) always said the American military could have a leader killed in action and another would be ready to take his place…unlike most other world militaries. He said it better than I can remember tho…anyway, I don’t see anything “desperate” about it.
Shouldn’t one wear a tuxedo for this exercise?
Did anyone else see that Microsoft grew by $490 billion in a single day last week? Thats nearly the size of Denmark. And there’s this from today’s WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-brief-history-of-wealth-creation-32bd917a?st=bh1oDD
Not just America really, though we have clearly led the way. The global wealth that has been created in the last 100 years has been absolutely astounding. The how’s and whys of it should be the most thoroughly studied thing in the world. Our universities should be obsessed with it. Clearly, they are not.
@F: I guarantee I will NOT be addicted to the penguin. Nice try, though.
Geez. I thought F was foreswearing Linux! 🙂
@Mike Plaiss: Not just America really, though we have clearly led the way. The global wealth that has been created in the last 100 years has been absolutely astounding.
And Europe has missed most of that boat. Instead of innovation it pushes regulation as its superpower.
They have chosen poorly.
Which reminds me – remember, economic growth is a national security issue.
Because the left is obsessed with anyone becoming relatively wealthy, overlooking the enormous across-the-board increase in living standards that even modestly unbridled capitalism brings. And too many of those relatively wealthy join the chorus, evidently believing that the crocodile will eat them last.
”And Europe has missed most of that boat. Instead of innovation it pushes regulation as its superpower.”
This came to me (online) from a European businessman:
“America innovates, China imitates, and Europe regulates.”
There’s a lot of truth in that short statement.
Did anyone else see that Microsoft grew by $490 billion in a single day last week? — Mike Plaiss
Yep. It’s my biggest single stock position. 😉 Too big probably.
It’s been continuing to climb over the last 3 days. Up 25% in 3 days now. Though it’s still down by about 11.5% from its blow-off-top at the end of last October. It is a member of the vaunted “Magnificent 7.”
Most of those Mag7 stocks have fallen from favor, especially MSFT which took almost a 50% decline after the top. Until now that is. It’s quite wild. Gyrations of nearly $2T in MSFT alone.
The big and supposedly smart investors have been aghast at the magnitude of the AI spending, and will the companies get a reasonable ROI (return)? Another factor is lots of folks talking into their Android phone (speech to text) to initiate AI queries, and almost all of those go to Alphabet’s Gemini, not Co-Pilot.
I’m expecting a serious near-term AI correction in the markets.
Ai isn’t bogus anymore than the internet was, but IMO it has gotten ahead of its skis.
Did anyone else see that Microsoft grew by $490 billion in a single day last week? – Mike Plaiss
I’m always the bear.
That raises an interesting question. The last few weeks Elon Musk’s net worth has dropped about $300 billion to around $700 billion. It might come back in the next few months. He has less than $1 billion in cash/cash equivalents.
So a lot of the wealth in the US or the world is based on perception/trust. The “wealth” of the stock market dropped about 50% as a result of the financial crisis of 2008.
I’m sure you all are aware of this, but sometimes we lose sight of the risks.
Numbers correction: It was a 38% decline resulting in $1.5T devaluation.
I have expressly forbidden ballet posts. You will repent.
I’m expecting a serious near-term AI correction in the markets.
Ai isn’t bogus anymore than the internet was, but IMO it has gotten ahead of its skis. — huxley
There certainly could be another larger correction, but we’ve already had a very big one.
As with the dotcom boom/bust, there will probably be a shakeout, with a very few winners and a bunch of losers, but I think AI is a good bet overall. If you put $1000 in QQQ (the Nasdaq composite) at the beginning in 1999 (before the boom/bust) you’d still have gotten a 10% annual return, even though you would have lost about 60% in the bust (ask me how I know).
The July correction was chip stocks. AI is still to come.
As to Microsoft, how much of it’s profits come from the Cloud? I view the Cloud as a legal extortion scheme. “It’d be a shame if all those photos on the cloud got locked up– why don’t you just buy more storage?”
My wife’s cloud account was nearly full. It’s nearly impossible to clear it out (at least to my non-savvy abilities). You try and delete pictures off her computer and the cloud immediately restores them.
I finally gave up and bought more storage– though someday I’m going to remove them from the cloud and backup to a 1 tb ssd portable drive– and then delete that cloud account.
Regarding stock and AI and Microsoft fortunes.
It’s summer, and the volumes trading overall are a fraction of average. See you in September!
“Sell in May and go away”?
The invasion of Spain via Cueta gets worse. The new Muslims are not leaving, but protesting. And the propaganda media merely covers for the political lies being told.
Benny Johnson has a roundup of video and text from X.com
“E.U. Governments Are LYING: Muslim Invasion of Spain Getting WORSE…Turns VIOLENT! Citizens REVOLT” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQtYmmZlSXM
The Left enables these lies, while invading Muslim’s know they bring conquest through their religion. It is called ‘Hijrah’, which is Islamic migration for the purpose of conquest.
Meanwhile, PM Sánchez jets off for a holiday.
Hypocrisy claims explode as Mamdani floats ID checks for city grocery stores but not for voting
I’m stupid enough looking, I don’t need to walk.like a penguin and prove it.
Might the DSA have caused this rare display of sanity?
“Democrats blink as Schumer helps GOP clear key shutdown hurdle;
“Chuck Schumer endorsed the continuing resolution as the ‘responsible path forward’ for American families”—
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democrats-blink-schumer-helps-gop-clear-shutdown-hurdle
…or maybe it’s because the cat is out of the bag:
“The DSA got stronger after 10/7.
“Why?
“Because they have the operational [on-the-ground] support of CAIR, SJP and the 186 NGOs that run the Islamist pipeline from college to office.”–
https://instapundit.com/814233/
Regarding stock and AI and Microsoft fortunes.
It’s summer, and the volumes trading overall are a fraction of average. See you in September! — TJ
Brian E on August 3, 2026 at 7:54 pm said:
“Sell in May and go away”?
Reasonable thoughts! I have all these new music oriented friends and several months ago I was talking to the boyfriend of an avid music lover. “What occupies your days Tommy?” he asked. “I dabble with investing, and watch the markets in the morning,” I replied. I had forgotten that he had been an investment professional. He gives me the spiel: “How do you plan to beat the market with your efforts?” Blah, blah, blah.
So this is the Efficient Market Hypothesis. When you get lots of highly intelligent and motivated investors in a large marketplace, then the market values display an uncanny brilliance for being correct, or nearly perfect. OK. Nice hypothesis. More active investors in the fall should be better at achieving this than light trading in the summer. Check.
Unfortunately, the big money is in institutional or otherwise giant investment funds, and there are so many reasons why they have counterproductive motivations. I’ll skip the many convoluted reasons, and state: Read old Warren Buffet discussions on the topic. I love his old commentary on applying math and statistics to investing. (I should say, stupidly applying math and stats.)
I actually met a guy who runs a hedge fund, which in reality was mostly his own money managed with all the tools at a hedge fund’s disposal. Now that guy almost certainly beats the pants off of anything I can accomplish. But he’s a rarity, at least in market dollar terms. When you manage other people’s money, things get difficult quickly.
Back to Microsoft: Here are a few quickies from Morgan Stanley’s analysis post earnings results.
MSFT spent 10’s of billions on AI and their margins are down by less than 1%. What a cash cow!
Much of that cash cow is Azure and Teams. Cloud based, yes. But much much more than OneDrive storage. It’s the facilitation of corporate team collaboration.
Tommy Jay, sell in May and go away has been around for almost 100 years in the US stock market. I didn’t know but it was an adage for more than 200 years in Britain, where it was “sell in May and go away, come back on St. Legers Day”. Summers have resulted light/volatile trading for a long time.
I think it was Bill Maher who said Spain is like California: people are pouring over the border, and everyone there speaks Spanish!
More Abrahamic Religion news today. Yesterday I had a comment on — Spitting Attacks Show Rise of Anti-Christian Hate in Israel:
Today it’s Christians on the Jews by right-wing (MAGA??) Day by Day cartoon (!?!?!?!) — CROSS
?!?! Iran and its cronies are not prejudice, i.e., they are attacking Jews, Christians, and fellow Muslims.
Hobby, get a new horse.
Selfy:
One other reason Spain is like California: both are headed by handsome dunderheads.