Home » Iran again – plus TDS

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Iran again – plus TDS — 41 Comments

  1. Trump may wait until he returns from his meeting with Xi, but otherwise I believe it’s Game On again. I know Israel is impatient and I suspect many in the US military are likewise.

    Ret. Gen. Jack Keane on Fox has never wavered from “Finish the job.”

  2. It wouldn’t be unlike Trump to authorize renewed bombing while he is en route to China.

  3. Trump’s unpredictability in negotiations is a feature, not a bug.

    That is so obviously true to anyone without TDS.

  4. Sam Harris is a big-mouth arrogant ass.

    “. . . . I’ve heard from friends of mine who are Trump-haters.” I haven’t heard such from friends of mine who are Trump-haters because I don’t have any friends that are Trump-haters. I used to, but I cut them out of my life. Yes, I did. I’m that kind of a person.

  5. My speculation regarding the pause. It may be coming from the inside. I have listened to guests on a few podcasts, guests from the Middle East and some from Iran, who assure listeners there is a resistance inside Iran – loosely organized by necessity, but somewhat effective and in contact with the U.S. and Israel. One just this weekend hinted that they are telling us that further bombing, especially of power plants and bridges, could be counterproductive.

  6. Sam Harris is such a petulant whiner. So intelligent yet so dense. I’ll never forget about his spat with Elon in which he basically admitted to being butthurt about Elon being called an “intellectual”, “a label to which I aspire every day” (or something to that effect). Trump and Musk just broke him.

  7. Mark V.: “Trump and Musk just broke him.”

    Trump has broken a lot of people. Without patting myself (or our hostess) on the back too much there are others who were scratching their heads (at least) at the emergence of Trump in the 2016 race but kept their minds open and have come to appreciate him. While still scratching our heads occasionally lol. Largely because the Dems had gotten so bad we felt we had no choice.

  8. @Mike Plaiss:I hope we are on top of this:

    I sent some emails to Department of State and Department of War and they assured me they have long had maps of the Caspian Sea.

    Just because we are seeing people talk about it in the news just now, doesn’t mean no one thought of it until just now… in the 50-ish years of planning wars with Iran the Caspian Sea has been noted and included.

    Notice the dates in what’s quoted below: March and April.

    …the Caspian Sea has seen conflict come right to its coast. The US and Israeli bombardment of Tehran has brought military activity near the Caspian’s airspace, just 67 miles away. Airstrikes have also targeted Iranian seaports along the Caspian. On March 19, Israeli forces executed strikes on Bandar Anzali, a seaside town and major Caspian port for Iran’s conventional (ie, “Artesh”) navy, destroying a substantial portion of Iran’s Caspian fleet. Another series of airstrikes, on April 1, targeted Bandar Anzali’s port infrastructure.

    If you filter search results to before May, you can find reports in the news about air strikes targeting Iran’s Caspian Sea navy and ports. The talking heads maybe didn’t mention it or emphasize it but it happened.

    If you don’t filter your search results, it’s all talking heads saying “oh I hope Trump didn’t forget about the Caspian Sea”.

    The Journal said that although Israel’s Caspian Sea strikes were unlikely to halt Russian-Iranian sea trade entirely, it would likely slow the countries down for a period, as they would have to move their operations to alternate ports if they wished to continue.

    Israel has not acknowledged the expected impact on Russia of the Caspian Sea strikes, which analysts told the Journal was likely a deliberate choice, given the careful line Jerusalem treads with Moscow.

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin maintain regular contact, chiefly on matters pertaining to Iran and Syria, where Russia propped up the regime of former president Bashar al-Assad during the Syrian Civil War.

    Israel under Netanyahu has largely remained neutral when it comes to the war in Ukraine — sending only humanitarian aid to Kyiv, not military aid as requested — even as Russia has grown increasingly critical of Israel’s military action in the region and moved closer to its enemies.

    On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke to his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi regarding Israel’s strikes at the Caspian Sea port.

    “Mutual concern was expressed about the dangerous spread of the conflict provoked by Washington and Tel Aviv to the Caspian Sea area,” Russia’s foreign ministry said.

  9. “Iran has been playing games with the United States, and the rest of the World, for 47 years (DELAY, DELAY, DELAY!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

    The above comment reveals that Trump knows that the Iranians are playing for time. Neo points out why he hasn’t restarted the bombing.

    “the current ceasefire that resets the time schedule for the need for Congressional approval.”

  10. An interesting turn, one which I have been awaiting in wonder at where it could be. Anyhow, appears to be happening now, if yet long overdue:

    FOX NEWS ALERT: “Sources confirm to Fox News’ Bret Baier that forces from the United Arab Emirates are carrying out military strikes inside Iran,” says John Roberts.

    “The UAE forces are directly engaged with the Islamic Republic and have been for several days.”

    “This comes after Iran launched dozens of missiles and drones at the UAE during the conflict.”

    https://x.com/i/status/2053981375234035941

  11. @ Geoffrey – IOW, the longer he waits to resume hostilities, the further out the end of the 60-day “clock” will be.
    More flexibility to meet circumstances as they develop.

    @ Mike Plaiss > “My speculation regarding the pause. It may be coming from the inside.”

    Sounds very probable.
    We really don’t have any idea who is talking to Trump, and Israel, from inside Iran.

  12. Why is Sam Harris popular? My first impression was that he was a guy who had never had an original thought. He isn’t stupid, but he is utterly conventional.

  13. Charles R Harris:

    As far as I know, Sam Harris became at least somewhat popular as one of the people who used to go around debating in favor of atheism (“New Atheism”). Others were David Hawkins, Christopher Hitchens, and Daniel Dennett. This was about 20 years ago.

  14. Ah – a clear invitation to repost this observation from a comment I made on another thread:
    https://www.reaganfoundation.org/ronald-reagan/quotes/sometimes-when-im-faced-with-an-unbeliever-an-atheist
    Ronald Reagan: “Sometimes when I’m faced with an unbeliever, an atheist, I am tempted to invite him to the greatest gourmet dinner that one could ever serve and, when we finished eating that magnificent dinner, to ask him if he believes there’s a cook.”

  15. Trump may believe Xi – at this point in time – has the best understanding of who is left in Iran that can be negotiated with and who has the power to control outcomes. Knowing Trump, he will offer Xi a deal he can’t refuse. ‘Help me make this happen or your economy is dead in the water.’
    Also, ‘you’ve seen what our military can do – so hands off Taiwan.’
    Sounds like a plan!

  16. FOAF: “While still scratching our heads occasionally lol. Largely because the Dems had gotten so bad we felt we had no choice.”

    I personally wouldn’t vote for a Dem unless somebody put the proverbial (hopefully) gun to my head, but I, too, scratch my head in equal measure!

  17. Ah, Sam Harris, atheist and Ahab.

    I can forget him, again. Not as bad as a Tucker, though.

  18. Similar to Sam Harris…

    Robert Kagan, a neoconservative going way back, even one of the founders of Project for the New American Century (PNAC) — infamous to Democrats in the 2000s — left the Republican Party after Trump was nominated.

    He has remained steadfastly anti-Trump since. He even resigned his editor-at-large position when WaPo refused to take a position on the 2024 election.

    So a few days ago he published a crazy article in The Atlantic declaring the Iran War is a total loss for the US:
    ______________________________________

    It’s hard to think of a time when the United States suffered a total defeat in a conflict, a setback so decisive that the strategic loss could be neither repaired nor ignored. The calamitous losses suffered at Pearl Harbor, the Philippines, and throughout the Western Pacific in the first months of World War II were eventually reversed. The defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly but did not do lasting damage to America’s overall position in the world, because they were far from the main theaters of global competition. The initial failure in Iraq was mitigated by a shift in strategy that ultimately left Iraq relatively stable and unthreatening to its neighbors and kept the United States dominant in the region.

    Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be “open,” as it once was. <b?With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world. The roles of China and Russia, as Iran’s allies, are strengthened; the role of the United States, substantially diminished.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/iran-war-trump-losing/687094/
    ______________________________________

    This is barking mad stuff.

  19. Barking, indeed.

    And at the NYT, it’s just another day at the office…

    “Does the New York Times want to kill Jews?
    “They know that their amplification of totally insane blood libels plays a role in the attacks on synagogues, the stabbings, and the shootings. And they do it anyway…”—
    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/426953

    If one has to ask the question…

  20. Richard Dawkins, but yeah, that was a thing. As to Sam Harris, sheesh, talk about a “bitter clinger” it’d be hard to find a better model.

  21. Trump has a plan, or Trump had a plan when he started the war?

    He might have a plan going forward based on the current situation, but I can’t imagine that any plan that Trump might have had on February 28 would have included weeks of fruitless negotiations with the Iranians while the US and Iran implemented dueling blockades of the Strait of Hormuz and gasoline sat at nearly $5.00 per gallon months before the mid-term elections.

    TDS really works in both directions.

  22. Oy, bitter clingers of the world unite! You have nothing to lose but your brains!

  23. I was wondering when our own little Ahab (CC™-R(risible)) would return to again slay The Great Orange Whale.

    And just like that, LOL.

    CC™-R can’t conceive that twelvers with twelve nukes is a serious problem. What a tool.

  24. om – Once again, you couldn’t be more wrong if you tried. Par for the course. Of course I think that Iranian nukes would be a problem.

    The problem is not taking out Iran’s nukes, the problem is that the man trying to do it is an incompetent fool who sure seems to have made a bigger mess than the one he found.

    As I said, TDS works in both directions. How anyone could look at the current mess and claim that Trump was right all along is almost incomprehensible to me. It’s not for nothing that those outside of MAGA call it a cult. I still hope for a positive result in Iran, but I’m not optimistic.

  25. ” . . . a bigger mess than the one he found.”

    That right there is openly absurd. Why adopt such a plainly silly posture at the cost (again) of abandoning any hope to credibility? Shrug. Oh well.

  26. I was wondering when our own little Ahab (CC™-R(risible)) would return to again slay The Great Orange Whale.

    And just like that, LOL.

    CC™ has to be reminded about the basics (nukes of the twelvers). A tool.

  27. This was about 20 years ago.

    Roger Simon mentioned Sam Harris in a blog post back around 2004, he apparently knew his parents and plugged his book The End of Faith. I was immediately unimpressed.

  28. So, what now? Those who trust Trump believe he’s got a plan. Those who have contempt for him believe he’s in over his head and is just flailing around.

    — neo

    I am a Trump supporter and I think neither.

    I think they’re mostly making this up as they go along. But that’s not the same as flailing. As the cliche goes: “No plan ever survives contact with the enemy.”

    They have an idea of where they want to get to, but they’re having to feel their way along as they try to find a path to get there. They have to adjust to Iranian actions, other foreign actions, and domestic political considerations as they go.

    People like Sam Harris are a classic example of class-based contempt. Even when Trump does stuff they’ve actively wanted for decades, they can’t get past it. He’s ‘not our kind’. He’s not part of the club. He’s a lowbrow inferior who somehow managed to get power. They loathe him and his presence in power makes them feel belittled.

    This is a bipartisan thing, BTW. That same reaction happened, in milder form, with Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, and Ronald Reagan. Johnson and Nixon wanted the respect of that class on some level, and that made them vulnerable to them. Reagan didn’t care, which left the class-critics powerless and even angrier.

    But Trump is worse on every level, from their POV. He presses all their buttons and nothing they say or do seems to make him go away or even weaken him lastingly.

  29. Imagine the I-told-you-so Bauxite could manage in the early days of “The Battle of the Bulge” counter-offensive in WW II after the success of D-Day.

    Eisenhower is in over his head! He’s flailing!

  30. huxley:

    CC™-R would have been saying the allied invasion of France is a failure from June 7, 1944 through August 1944 when the Americans were still bottled up in the hedgerows of the bocage and British/Canadians were having a very bloody hard time around Caen.

    He would have been bitching that some Germans escaped the Falise pocket.

    No success is good enough for CC™-R.

  31. @huxley:Imagine the I-told-you-so Bauxite could manage in the early days of “The Battle of the Bulge”

    Allies took it pretty squarely on the chin until 1942; he would have had 2 1/4 straight years of uninterrupted I-told-you-sos. Could have just let Germany have Poland, now you geniuses have lost us France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway…

    Not to mention his questions about why the US is invading neutral territory in Africa in 1942 when any fool knows that Germany is in Europe, and why is FDR trying to tell General Marshall and Admiral King how to fight a war, and when is anybody going to do anything about Japan…

  32. We live in an stupidly impatient country that does not prioritize certain matters and exaggerates lesser ones (is the terrible press or the insipid academia or are they symptoms of a greater problem

    How long did the solomons campaign last the work of hornfischer iluminates some elements i hadnt considered

    The ones mentioned in james bassett and then premingers film ‘in harms way’

  33. I know, … we all have our “secret somebody’s” who know someone who knows someone who is or has a contact … into the DOW or DOS.
    I trust mine explicitly, and now I have it on good authority that actually the US – Iranian negotiations are going very smoothly. They are almost settled on every issue except one.
    With the minor back and forth over controlling the Strait of Hormuz, Trump is now saying he will not sign on the dotted line until there is an agreement to rename that waterway to Trump Strait.
    I think he has a plan to cut a channel through the SW projection into that narrowed passage, so that when it is completed, it will then be called the Straight Trump Strait.

  34. @ R2L > “I think he has a plan to cut a channel through the SW projection into that narrowed passage, ”

    But seriously, every time I look at a map of the area, I wonder if the Arab nations will get their act together and put a canal across that projection, and then (because of the present context) ban Iran from using it.

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