What’s on tap for Iran?
I make no predictions on this. But a lot of people reading the tea leaves think some sort of attack is imminent. There’s this, for example:
Now it appears that the State Department has begun moving non-essential options out of the way – a warning, perhaps, that Trump has tired of circular arguments from Tehran.
The timing and the choice both seem significant. First, the US has begun moving non-essential personnel from Iraq, likely the closest and most vulnerable target for Iran’s proxy militias …
More pointedly, the State Department ordered the same evacuation in Israel …
That seems like a very clear signal that the talks in Oman did not go well. The urgency of these moves is another indicator that the talks produced nothing more than the same demands from Iran to keep enriching uranium and the same refusals to discuss their ballistic missiles and terror proxies.
I have always felt the talks with Iran are some sort of stalling tactic. But I also think an attack will be very hard to pull off successfully (and it certainly won’t be an invasion), and that there’s quite a bit of disagreement within the administration on what to do, and when to do it.
Plus the isolationist wing of the GOP, which opposes all US military intervention in foreign countries and especially not in aid of Israel, is going to go nuts.
Attack the IRGC and Iran’s oil facilities and ports.
Let the Iranian people deal with the Mullahs and politicians.
Let the GOP isolationists wail, gnash their teeth and pound sand.
Whatever else they may be, Russia and China are rational actors. Iran’s fanatical Mullahs are not. It’s criminally irresponsible to let fanatics get their hands on nukes.
Apparently China is also pulling its people out of Iran. Buckle up.
The question of what happens after the mullahs is an open question, to be decided by all the various groups in Iran. The Ottomans ran the place with the millet system. It’s not a unified culture country-wide.
Now I wonder if the attack happens as the Senate is consumed by a talking filibuster against the SAVE act on voting.
I won’t be surprised if no attack this week. Will be surprised if no attack before end of March.
I agree that the talks were always just a stalling tactic but I’m not at all sure what the goal of an attack will be. Is the goal regime change? Can that be achieved through limited strikes and no ground troops? Trump should explain what we hope to achieve if we strike and how we can tell if our aims were met.
I read this morning that USS Ford (CVN-78) had just left a port in Greece bound for Haifa today. It’s doubtful any attack would begin with that ship in port, although its eventual deployment location remains to be seen. Other offensive and defensive assets are still on the move, so that would appear to suggest later this coming week at the earliest. The defensive moves are very daunting, given the Iranian ballistic missile set with a declared intention to use them. Expect those to be primary targets in the earliest attacks, as destroying them en masse reduces the number of anti-missile defenses (now in short supply) to be used. In general though, this thing looks to be bigger in scope with every passing day.
I find myself wondering if the Russians would miss more one of their few genuine allies or if Putin would be pleased with large scale destruction of Iranian oil export facilities, increasing the already existent pressure to ease sanctions against his own exports and raising prices.
@Gregory Harper:Trump should explain what we hope to achieve if we strike and how we can tell if our aims were met.
There’s no possible way he could do that before the strike actually happened. That would just tell Iran where and how to dig in their heels. He might be able tell us once it’s under way.
Early Saturday morning and Fox News reports that Israel and the US have started attacks on Iran.
What happens if these squirrelly theocrats cry “UNCLE!” to the world? I bet Trump knows what’s next.
So now we know. Trump and the Israelis have confirmed operations have begun.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2026/02/u-s-israel-launch-strikes-on-iran-president-trump-says-major-combat-operations-underway/
Iran should have signed anything Trump wanted. When the next POTUS was a dem, they’d be free to do what they want.
The Ottomans ran the place with the millet system. It’s not a unified culture country-wide.
==
The Seljuk Turks ruled Iran for around 150 years during the European high middle ages. The Ottomans never ruled Iran.
==
About 1/3 of the population consists of ethnic minorities, but some minorities are culturally adjacent to the Persian population.