Roundup
(1) RIP Jesse Jackson, 84. Here’s an article that goes into the many facets of Jackson’s life:
He was a con artist and a “race pimp.” He was an opportunist, a race hustler, and a corporate shakedown expert who enriched himself by using funds earmarked for “the cause” for his own personal gain. He was an admirer of notorious racist and virulent antisemite Louis Farrakhan.
Jesse Jackson, who died on Tuesday at the age of 84, was all of that. He was also one of the greatest orators of the 20th century, a groundbreaking political figure, one of the best political strategists in American history, and a towering figure in local Chicago Democratic politics.
You can’t look at Jesse Jackson as a one-dimensional stick figure. Like all humans, especially those who have left their mark on history, he was a mix of the good, the bad, and the ugly.
(2) Another transgender mass murderer. This time it was a man named Robert Dorgan, who also used the name Roberta Esposito. Dorgan killed his ex-wife and one of his children, shot two other of his children, and killed a family friend and then himself, all while they were watching a high school ice hockey game in Pawtucket, Rhode Island.
The day before the murders, Dorgan – under the moniker “Roberta Dorgano” – had responded on X to a tweet pointing out that a certain transgender person presenting as a woman was actually a man. Dorgan replied, “keep bashing us, but do not wonder why we go BERSERK.”
Dorgan seems to have been many things: Nazi admirer (if you go by his tattoos), father of six children (one now deceased), and extremely angry. He had undergone sex reassignment surgery in 2020 and his wife had divorced him. He also seems to have critically wounded his wife’s parents. My guess is that he was taking female hormones. Another guess is that he was unbalanced even before he took on the trans identity, but the surgery and “treatment” didn’t help matters in the least and probably exacerbated the problems.
(3) I haven’t written about the Guthrie kidnapping because there’s so little news, but I will mention that DNA on the glove found recently doesn’t match anything in police databases. That doesn’t mean it can’t be traced using genealogy websites that are in the public domain (most are not, but some are).
(4) Washington DC is a cesspool. No, literally:
The Potomac sewage crisis is crossing into historic territory.
Reportedly approaching one of the largest wastewater spills in US history, the Potomac Interceptor collapse is now entering a pivotal stretch as DC Water ramps up pumping capacity to 114 million gallons per day, while E. coli levels near the collapse site remain staggeringly high.
There is a massive Ecological Disaster unfolding in the Potomac River as a result of the Gross Mismanagement of Local Democrat Leaders, particularly, Governor Wes Moore, of Maryland. A sewer line breach in Maryland has caused millions of gallons of raw sewage to be dumped directly into the Potomac River, a result of incompetent Local and State Management of Essential Waste Management Systems. This is the same Governor who cannot rebuild a Bridge. It is clear Local Authorities cannot adequately handle this calamity. Therefore, I am directing Federal Authorities to immediately provide all necessary Management, Direction, and Coordination …
(5) Amplifying the Muslim call to prayer in New York City:
A tweet making the rounds this week shows video of the Islamic call to prayer, the Adhan, echoing through New York City streets at dawn. Five in the morning. Amplified. Projected over neighborhoods that still carry the scars of September 11, 2001. That date is not ancient history. It is living memory. …
The United States protects religious liberty. That includes Muslims. The First Amendment is not selective. And it should not be. But freedom of religion is not the same thing as forced participation in someone else’s religious proclamation.
The Adhan is not ambient background music. It is a declaration. The phrase “Allahu Akbar” means “God is greatest.” It is a theological claim. It is a call to submission. Practicing Muslims understand this. That is not controversial. That is simply fact.
I thought about going to NYC for a Creighton basketball game this Saturday, but this is one of the many reasons why I changed my mind.
Do we need more proof this Trans gender is a mental illness?
Or we can wait for a few more murderers before making up our minds.
Let the mosques send the muezzin up to the top of the minaret to sing the Adhan without amplification at dawn and dusk, and apply the same noise restrictions to the Adhan as to any other sound during normal waking hours. There is no excuse for permitting this offensive (to Christians and Jews) message to be blasted out at top volume at all hours. Yes, it’s offensive; it declares not only that there is one God, but that Muhammad is his messenger (not Moses, or the prophets, or Jesus). It is essentially and intentionally anti-Christian and anti-Jewish, and always has been.
Perhaps churches, those that still believe, should broadcast the Apostles’ or Nicene Creed at full volume two or three times a day, and perhaps synagogues should broadcast the Shema.
Not only is being trans an instance of insanity, but it would seem the way we currently treat it makes it worse, not better, given the increase in violence.
“You can’t look at Jesse Jackson as a one-dimensional stick figure. Like all humans, especially those who have left their mark on history, he was a mix of the good, the bad, and the ugly.”
That’s the truth. I heard him speak at a youth event… late 70s… He felt phony to me then and I’ve always been moved by black Christian preaching. Maybe just my 17-year-old self was already jaded?
Re NYC… Who’s surprised? You might not be interested in a religious war, but Islam is interested in warring against you.
Trans as a synonym for barking mad? We saw that from a mile away. God bless the innocents who’ve been slaughtered on the altar of woke.
I had two occasions to spend time with Jackson. The 1st was a small closed meeting where he blatantly chose out the black diplomats to interact with and completely ignored the other dips present. On the elevator ride down afterwards, a friend in the meeting (a hard-to shock member of the Senior Foreign Service) finally broke the silence and called him out for the racist that he was.
A year later while posted in South Africa I had the dubious distinction of being “volun-told” that I was assigned to shadow him all day as he met with ANC members around the province. I listened to him all day excoriate the US with these openly racist, anti-American ANC politicians. They lapped it up, and he reveled in the mutual America hate.
We’re all going to die one day, mine will come in its own time, and this was Jackson’s day. Good riddance to bad blood.
Regarding the passing of Jesse Jackson I’m taking my cue from Thumper.
Fat Tuesday today. Live it up while you still can, boys and girls. Lagniappe!
The phrase “Allahu Akbar” does NOT mean “God is greatest.” It actually translates as, “our God is greater than yours”. That’s WHY jihadists, when in the act of slaughtering non-Muslims, scream it out loud.
The Muslim call to prayer is a preview of coming ‘attractions’.
Jesse Jackson was an opportunist, a con artist and a race hustler who used his oratorical prowess and political strategical skills to shakedown corporations. That he was an admirer of notorious racist and virulent anti-Semite Louis Farrakhan speaks volumes about his true nature.
Doesn’t the 5am Muslim call to prayer violate a noise ordinance? If you can ban leaf blowers…
Personally I think the US should treat Islam as tolerantly as Saudi Arabia treats Christianity and Judaism.
But that’s just me.
delusions seem to be a dime a dozen, this one the chimeric one seems to be very dangerous
yes one can’t help of think when constantinople was conquered, a once great city, like those across the pond on the Thames, under the seemingly more respectable, sadik khan,
Jesse Jackson used to stay with the (activist) family of a women I knew. She would have been a teenager at the time and said she found him very attractive.
What’s the total count of “trans mass murders” in the US, ever? Is it even up to six?
There’s been an average of 31 mass murders per year since 2006, of course it depends on definition. (The definition from the source I’m looking at is “four or more people were killed intentionally within a 24-hour period, not including any offender and not including any fetus or embryo carried by a pregnant victim”, but there’s others.) Because this is a small number it varies widely year by year; in 2025 there were only 17.
Some of the most recent “trans” murders we’ve talked about here don’t even qualify as “mass murders”, for example the Minneapolis Catholic School would not count and the Zizians would not count either.
By not sitting down and actually clarifying what we are counting, we’re piling a whole bunch of events into the numerator which aren’t in the denominator and giving ourselves a false idea of what is going on. We’re even adding in Canadians to our total, apparently, which is another inflation of the numerator because we’re not adding all Canadian mass murders into our denominator. (Yes there are mass murders in Canada.)
Trans people are a bit under one percent of the population, and if you actually count “mass murder” consistently, they’re under one percent of mass murderers too, suggesting they’re not disproportionately likely to be mass murderers.
And that’s why I asked if the total number of “trans mass murders” is even up to six yet, because 6 is a little less than 1% of all the mass murders in the last 20 years. I have only seen a list of four, not counting this one, and when you dig in to that list it’s not even clear they were all trans.
There is a demographic that IS disproportionately responsible for mass murders in the US, of course, the same one disproportionately represented in all violent crime, more than double its share of the US population.
Don’t worry Mullah Mamdami’s minion wants to ban keeping of domestic dogs indoors.
You do know that dogs are unclean? Spoken from a culture that never thought of sanitation beyond the right hand rule.
Why is Nick the special pleader for trans murderers?
It didn’t used to be a thing or a cause for murder and medical mayhem.
Nothing to see, move along, move along.
Niketas:
That number is not the universal definition of mass murder – which has no universal definition except that obviously it has to be the murder of more than one person. And what of would-be mass murderers who critically wound more than one person, intending to kill them but failing? Also, I think gang-related mass murders should be in a separate category, as should terrorist attacks. They are both categories of their own.
And what of someone like Charlie Kirk’s killer? He isn’t trans, but trans issues were definitely part of his motive.
Plus we’re definitely not talking about the last 20 years regarding the trans murderer phenomenon. It’s a trend that has only been going on for the last couple of years.
Looking at it that way, I think there’s little question that trans people have been disproportionately represented among mass murderers in the last few years.
@neo:That number is not the universal definition of mass murder – which has no universal definition…
You can pick a different one if you want, but before you can talk about trends in any way you have to specify something, otherwise you’re just counting up anecdotes like the people who counted up young people who died of heart failure post-COVID vaccine.
And what of someone like Charlie Kirk’s killer? He isn’t trans, but trans issues were definitely part of his motive.
This is exactly what I mean by packing the numerator. First you want to count trans people who killed fewer than four people as mass murderers, which is okay if you change the denominator and make it much bigger, but now you include people who aren’t even trans but are sympathizers. Your denominator should now be HUGE, including everyone who killed ONE person over something where SOMEBODY ELSE had the motive. And of course you can’t explain Kirk’s killer by hormone treatments if he’s not even trans himself.
Looking at it that way, I think there’s little question that trans people have been disproportionately represented among mass murderers in the last few years.
If that were actually true then you and anyone else making the same claim could give numbers. But all they do is just list 4 or 6 or 8 murders that have happened, out of a universe of potentially tens of thousands. I actually took the trouble to assemble some consistent numbers. If you have better numbers, can we see them? If you have no numbers, then you have vibes and narrative, no different from “shark summer” in 2001.
How many trans mass murderers have there been, total? Use whatever definition you want, and we can go look for the denominator that matches it, and see if the ratio is actually much more than the proportion of trans people generally. But until you pick something and there’s numbers it’s just narrative and vibes, and your yeoman work on COVID vaccinations shows me that you do know the right way to approach this question.
Nick sees nothing because he is fond of fiddling with figures.
How many trans or trans allied/adjacent are there Nick? Get back to us when you have that number.
IIRC the number of basic homosexual of both genders is not really a hard number so good luck playing your higher statistical flim flam with the trans population of both genders.
This evening, Fox News showed a list of “Mass shootings involving trans individuals”.
The list had 7, starting with 2018.
2018, Aberdeen, MD: 4 dead
2022, CO Springs, CO: 5 dead
2023, Nashville, TN: 6 dead
2024, Perry, IA: 1 dead, 5 hurt
2025, Minneapolis, MN: 2 dead, 29 hurt
2026, Tumbler Ridge,BC: 8 dead, 25 hurt
2026, Pawtucket, RI: 3 dead, 3 hurt.
. . .
Just FYI.
@Marlene:This evening, Fox News showed a list of “Mass shootings involving trans individuals”.
Great, let’s go with that list. First thing to note is your list includes a Canadian mass murder, which means adding all the Canadian mass murders to the denominator…
Second thing to note, the Perry IA case is one dead, so that’s going to be a big denominator. There have been 24 mass shootings just since January 1, 2026 where at least one victim was killed, so you can imagine how big that number is going to end up being going back to 2018, and how much work it would be to filter out gang violence and other things people don’t want to count–and if we’re not careful to include, say, people who kill their own family, then we’ll have to exclude the trans murder we’re talking about today.
I found 1107 mass shootings–a little less than mass murders–that killed at least one person, since June 2022. You have 5 American trans mass murderers since 2022 on your list, which out of 1107 (0.5%) is lower than trans people in the general American population, but because that 1100 includes gang violence and other crimes we probably don’t want to count, that denominator is a little high and our percentage is probably too low.
Using the “4 dead” definition and sticking to Americans your list reduces to 3 trans “mass murderers” out of 229 total American mass killings since 2018, which is 1.3%. This is higher than the prevalence of trans people in the general population and would make trans people a bit less disproportionate in mass killings than African Americans are (12% of the population, 28% of mass killings). I don’t have a quick way to exclude the gang bangers, etc, which would make the trans percentage higher.
But at least it’s a start at getting the answer, and we can see the answer is somewhere between 0% and 3-ish%, and with time and work we could refine it down. We on the Right pride ourselves on caring about facts, truth, and logic, so I’m sure everyone here would really like to know if trans people are really more dangerous than others, or indeed more dangerous than some of the dangerous and far common demographics we have. And of course we’re all clear thinkers and understand that looking into this doesn’t mean that we’re pro trans if we find out they’re not disproportionately mass murderers. And we’re too honest to want to paint them as disproportionately mass murderers if they really might not be, even in a good cause.
I don’t yet have numbers to prove it, but I suspect the causation is the other way round. I suspect that people prone to mass murder are more likely to say they are trans, or think they are trans, or willing to try out being trans, than before, because so many more people identify as trans than used to. If we get more Portuguese IT techs in the general population, we’ll see more mass murderers are Portuguese IT techs, and indeed Portuguese IT techs were responsible for 100% of mass killings in schools last year.
Flim flam, and posturing. How many trans people are there in the USA on any day, much in a month or in a year? A house built on sand has no foundation in logic.
Niketas,
“…I suspect the causation is the other way round. I suspect that people prone to mass murder are more likely to say they are trans, or think they are trans, or willing to try out being trans, than before, because so many more people identify as trans than used to.”
Not a theory I’d argue against.
But the bigger issue, to me, is that the gender ideologues are attracting a certain type of mentally ill, & giving them more fodder to feel like “special victims”.
Exploiting them — kinda like cults do. Promising that the hormones & surgery will make things better.
It often doesn’t.
The exploiters have made those who won’t accept the lies (of gender being a choice) into the enemy. So, the trans who are still very unhappy & ill are encouraged to blame that enemy.
…
Even though the numbers are small, we certainly don’t need new (relatively) groups of mentally ill being taught to hate deniers.
It’s an evil agenda.
— Marlene
This^^.
I’ve believed for a long time that, even in the case of the non-violent types, actively feeding that fantasy is not doing the ‘trans’ types any favors, any more than encouraging someone to believe he can fly like Superman is helping him. Forcing people to use their preferred pronouns and the other indulgences feeds the fantasy, it removes that vitally important negative feedback that everyone kind of hates, and everyone must have to live and thrive.
At best, it tends to end in disappointment. It can end in far worse.
As for exploiting them, you betcha.
Anybody remember Cindy Sheehan? The Left loved her…until she broke ranks on the narrative. Then she went from ‘mother Sheehan’ to ‘attention whore’.
Huxley @ 6:34:
“Personally I think the US should treat Islam as tolerantly as Saudi Arabia treats Christianity and Judaism.
But that’s just me.”
I’m long time there, with you!
I read somewhere earlier today that Japan’s new PM is getting tougher on Muslim immigration.
I can’t find it now, but hopefully that is true.
Wishing that was the case here, too.
And wishing our “religious freedom” wasn’t so exploitable.
@Marlene:Even though the numbers are small, we certainly don’t need new (relatively) groups of mentally ill being taught to hate deniers.
It’s an evil agenda.
No argument there. Evil doesn’t always mean disproportionately murderous, though.
This Quilette article “We Need to Talk About Trans-Identified Killers” is another example of a narrative. It’s illustrated with six people. Of these six people, one of them is not even trans, and two of them didn’t even kill anyone. (Three of them are on the list of seven you shared, and one of those seven may not actually have been transgender.) There are so few trans killers they didn’t even try get photos of six actual trans killers.
Mother Jones database lists 25-35 mass shootings by shooters under 30 in public places since 2013, with 5 being committed by transgender/non-binary shooters.
It’s still a small percentage committed by persons suffering from gender dysphoria, but given the recent increase in treating youths medically, will it become a trend?
– Grok
“He had undergone sex reassignment surgery ”
How do you do you reassign sex? Sex is based on chromosomes, so you would have to change the existing chromosomes.
@Brian E:Mother Jones database lists 25-35 mass shootings by shooters under 30 in public places since 2013, with 5 being committed by transgender/non-binary shooters.
Then Robert Dorgan, the one referenced in neo’s post, doesn’t count in the numerator because he is 56, and the last one you are counting was in 2023.
It would be wise not to take Grok’s word for it though, especially since you’re not talking about very many cases. A denominator ranging from 25-35 is very sloppy when we’re talking about such small numbers and you’re never going to detect a trend without getting better numbers.
The Mother Jones database is a spreadsheet online that you can click on, you don’t have to ask Grok. You can get the real answer. I did that.
There’s 96 mass shootings total in the database from 1/1/2013. “Public place” is not a filter option so Grok is just guessing. 48 were committed by someone under 30, only two of them known to be trans killers. (A third supposed “trans killer” never said anything about being trans until his trial, all three are in Marlene’s Fox News list.)
It’s hard to make 2 or 3 out of 48 over 15 years into a “trend”. Might as well talk about trends in Powerball winners.
@Brian E:It’s still a small percentage committed by persons suffering from gender dysphoria, but given the recent increase in treating youths medically, will it become a trend?
Like I’ve a shown a couple of times now, the numbers are simply not there to really know the answer. But so many more mentally ill and unstable people have been getting swept into the trans bucket in the last ten years that if it happens, I think it’s likely that it won’t be caused by “being trans”, but by how mentally ill and unstable people get labeled trans, either by choice or by the mental health system, who would not have been labeled so in previous decades.
Jesse Jackson was not MLK.
He wasn’t Al Sharpton either.
The Guthrie family kidnapping game is getting a lot of publicity the last few days. Apparently, in Savannah‘s recent book, she tells a story of a kidnapping game that she and her relatives would play with her mother. At the very least, this is weird, but it may have more significance. Here’s an article about it.
https://entertainmentnow.com/news/savannah-guthrie-kidnapping-game-book-excerpt/
Niketas C., The Violence Prevention Project does break down mass shootings by location, age, motive, cause etc.
They show 36 mass shootings from 2013 committed by people under 30, which aligns with Grok.
The reason I use Grok is it searches multiple sources. The criteria I selected influenced Grok’s answer.
Our town had a school shooting in 1996, which is why I’m interested in these types of shootings and ages. I chose 2013 as the beginning date, since it would focus on transgender motivations as this was around the time the medical interventions has increased.
Five out of 36 is a small but not insignificant number. I said it doesn’t establish a trend, but if this number continues to grow in this age group, it will reinforce, IMO, exactly how dangerous the use of medical interventions is.
I would say every shooting is a psychotic episode, since I can’t imagine how anyone could be in their right mind and commit such an act. What are the circumstances that trigger that episode?
This is not directly connected to the shooting Neo mentioned. I was shocked when I looked at a photograph of Dorgan. The level of delusion is incomprehensible that professionals would have any part in his “transition”.
Years ago I ran into a friend I had lost touch with over the years at a funeral. I was unaware he had transitioned and only recognized him when someone pointed out who she was.
That doesn’t appear to be what’s happening today. Grow the hair out, grow breasts and you’re a “woman”. The question should be, what is the percentage of people transitioning who commit a mass shooting to the total population of people transitioning.
Brian E:
Five out of 36 is way more than would be expected by the percentage of trans people in the population, even the population of young people where trans identity is higher these days (see this).
It’s not happening.
It’s happening, but it’s no big deal. <— Niketas is here
It’s happening, and it’s a good thing!
It’s happening, and you’re a bigot for even noticing it.
Neo, I agree with Niketas C. to the extent the numbers are too small to make any inferences. It’s more like hmmm.
Looking at the article you linked to it says 5% of young adults identify as transgender or non-binary. Is the process of transitioning as a means of reducing anxiety/other mental issues/feelings and the use of high doses of HRT cause a person to be more likely to commit mass violence. It would seem that the non-binary population is less likely to commit mass violence.
Five percent of a population of 44 million young adults is around 2.2-2.4 million people. The article says the adult population identifies as 54% transgender vs. 46% non-binary. Assuming the ratios are similar, this means there are about 1.3 million young adults identifying as transgender. Five mass murderers out of 1.3 million is a small number.
Only time will tell if this is just random noise or a trend.
@Brian E:Niketas C., The Violence Prevention Project does break down mass shootings by location, age, motive, cause etc.
They show 36 mass shootings from 2013 committed by people under 30, which aligns with Grok.
You told me Mother Jones, I went with Mother Jones. Mixing up sources is how this issue gets confused. If you’re not consistent with these small numbers, you have different standards in the numerator and denominator and create false impressions.
@mkent:It’s happening, but it’s no big deal. <— Niketas is here
100% false. I am saying that people are playing “shark summer of 2001” and can’t tell if anything is happening or not.
Niketas C. I asked Grok to give me numbers based on parameters I set. It used some data from Mother Jones and some from Violence Projection Project. The numbers from Violence Projection Project are similar to the ones Grok used, but not exactly.
One of the reasons I use Grok is it searches multiple sources. The Violence Project has the data, but you have to fiddle around to get the numbers. Apparently, Grok did that for me.
@Brian E: five out of 36
I downloaded the The Violence Prevention Project database and cannot duplicate your numbers. Who are the five trans murderers, can you give the names and dates? There are only three in the database, just like Mother Jones, one of them probably isn’t even trans, and they have 38 total under 30, not 36.
Apparently, Grok did that for me.
I begin to see the problem.
Look, you have to compare apples to apples. You can’t get a set of kumquats, pears, and bananas and compare them to a set of peas, watermelons, and Electors of the Holy Roman Empire.
Using Grok to generate a Gish gallop of bogus stats while I have to actually go through the work to find out what is real and what is invented or mixed up is not, I’m sure, how you want to arrive at what is true, and probably not what you intended to do.
So if you actually want to work on this, first, please name all your trans killers. There are not that many of them. That way we can at least nail down who is in the numerator.
So far I can get 2 or maybe 3 out of 38. Since 2013.
@neo:Five out of 36 is way more than would be expected by the percentage of trans people in the population
Firstly, 5/36 is not the number, I’ve established that much, because the strict standard that gets you so few as 36 mass shootings has only 2 or possibly 3 trans murderers in it (depending on if we believe the Mormon one is trans, since there was no evidence of it until his statements after his trial started).
Secondly, it is true that 2 or 3 out of 36 is higher than would be expected by share of population. Trans people are like 0.8% of the population. But they cannot commit 0.8% of 36 murders, because 0.288 is not an allowed number of murders. They can commit 0, 1, 2, 3, etc murders.
If 1 / 36 mass murders is committed by a trans person they are over their share, and if 0 / 36 are then they are under their share. They can’t achieve their share of such small numbers. And so their actual share of mass murders relative to their population is inherently uncertain because of the small integers involved. Quite aside from the uncertainty in their actual share of the general population.
There is math that handles statistics of numbers these small, but it can only give you a range of estimates and the probability distribution that goes with that range, and it is quite wide. This is literally a smaller population than Powerball winners. If two trans people win Powerball or get struck by lighting what do we expect to learn from that?
The trend right now is in reporting and online discussion of trans murders. That is a real trend. It is also true that there was a first trans mass murder sometime in the last ten years, and that represents a real trend of unknown size, but we know little else.
Niketas C., I closed the Grok tab I was using last night, so I had to start the query over again.
I originally asked Grok for data from 4+killed/injured. I think that’s more indicative of a mass shooting since the intent of the shooter is to kill everyone they shoot at.
That number of transgender shooters is 5 between ages 13 and 29.
That’s the metric used by Gun Violence Archive, but I can’t get it broken down into public places like schools, churches, restaurants, retail since they don’t track it.
The Violence Intervention Project does break it down by age and place– but they only track it by 4+killed and you are right, using that metric it’s 36 mass shootings with one committed by a transgender person.
The GVA lists 5 transgender shooters when you use the metric 4+killed/injured but lists 5900+ incidents between 2013 to date, but don’t break it down by age or place. There are estimates that the majority of shootings are younger people (as high as 70%) so it’s likely the number could be around 4,000.
I wasn’t arguing that the vast majority of mass shooters are not transgender.
A better way of looking at is what percentage of transgender mass shooters in the population of transgenders in the age group 11-29. The article Neo linked to says “5% of young adults identify as transgender or non-binary”. The article says in the adult population of transgender/non-binary 54% identify as transgender.
There are 80 million people between 11-29 in the US. Five percent would be 4 million and 54% of that would be 2.1 million transgender youths between 11/29.
Doing the math the ratio is about the same as the general population.
@Brian E: I do appreciate that you are trying to make a good faith effort to get to the truth; thank you.
If we use your 5% for young adults identifying as trans or nonbinary, and stick with the “38 mass shootings committed by people under 30 killing 4+ since 2013” standard (simply for consistency and convenience since there’s minimal reinvention of the wheel and we can used published data), then we’d predict just on share of population that 1.9 out of those 38 would be committed by trans or nonbinary people.
They can’t actually commit 1.9, so the probability distribution is
0: 15%
1: 28%
2: 27%
3: 17%
4: 8%
5+:4%
So for 38 mass shootings committed by young adults the probability would be 80% that 1 – 4 of them would be committed by trans or nonbinary people given that 5% of young adults say they identify as trans or nonbinary. And we’ve actually observed 2 (real trans people) or 3 (including someone who said he was trans but may have been making that up).
But it’s not quite right yet because we’re looking at 12 years of murders and young people haven’t identified at that 5% rate for that entire time. One of those murders was from seven years ago, the other from two years ago. But given the wide range due to the small numbers it may not be worth trying to be more precise about the rate of identification over time.
The most I would say is that we’re not yet seeing evidence that young trans or non-binary people are more likely to be mass murderers than their share of the population indicates.
Let’s hope that healthcare providers losing a few more lawsuits over transitions discourages more people from exploring transgenderism before we get enough data that we can draw firm conclusions…
Niketas C., we also have potential that kids will lose their fascination with trans/non-binary ideology.
The non-binary is hard to reconcile. It’s not gender dysphoria, it seems to me to be almost a fashion statement. Taking low dose hormones to slightly alter their bodies, or not.
The bearded trans woman commits mass murder but is only an anecdote. Sucks to be his victim though, killed by a statistical nonentity.
Nothing to see.