Mamdani’s lead has shrunk
But not nearly enough, according to polls taken since Adams dropped out:
Mamdani leads the race with 46% of likely voters backing him, followed by independent candidate Cuomo with 33% support and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa with 15%, the Quinnipiac University survey finds.
In a Quinnipiac survey that gauged a four-way race last month, Mamdani received 45% support to 23% for Cuomo, 15% for Sliwa and 12% support for Adams. Other polls showed Mamdani with a hefty lead in a four-person race.
You can see that, according to the poll, Mamdani’s lead is stable, and yet he doesn’t have 50%. Almost all of Adams’ votes went to Cuomo. If either Cuomo or Sliwa dropped out, what would happen? Mamdani might lose, especially if Sliwa dropped out because I can’t imagine any of Sliwa’s supporters going to Mamdani. But I don’t think Sliwa has any intention of dropping out.
Why do I care? Well, it’s my hometown.
I hope he wins. Just for the entertainment value.
I am conflicted. If NY suffers in the way I think it will, it will be bad for the US as a whole, and bad for a lot of individuals. But sometimes I think we need to let people suffer, in the way that parents will sometimes allow children suffer the effects of a bad decision. It might be worth it if that would teach them a valuable lesson, and if the consequences are not too dire.
Cuomo at a campaign event was heckled big time by pro-Mamdami people.
Sliwa is not as concerned about a Mondani win as many outsiders are.
Why? Is he not concerned about New Yorkers, or does he believe Cuomo is worse?
Or waiting for some sort of offer?
“Why do I care? Well, it’s my hometown.”
It’s mine too, and my ancestors built quite a bit of it, but it is rotten now. It is sick and totally changed from when I was born in 1947. I look forward to Mamdani forcing a lot of businesses and middle class families to Red States.
NY is just as stuck on stupid as CA and IL.
I suspect the lesson of doing things Mamdani’s way would be….”See how powerful our adversaries are that they would do this to us! We must explode The Struggle!!”
None so blind, especially when they might see it was their own damn’ fault/
I understand to a point how some think a Mamdani win would be valuable. As in:
1) Let them get what they vote for.
and/or
2) The consequences will be educational, with many people dropping the utopia dreams.
But
1) there are, obviously, many decent people who won’t vote for him, and aren’t able to escape (– for which there are multiple, good reasons)
And
2) I don’t have faith that a “trial run” would make socialists see the light & reverse course. Admit failure.
We’d hear excuses like “it’s not a real test if the whole state isn’t doing the mamdani thing, too.”
Or “mamdani was stifled. Not enough support”, etc.
And of course: Trump’s fault!
Richard @ 528 pm:
Indeed!
Reality — ie, the obvious bad fallout / failures — would have them double & triple down.
From a practical standpoint I don’t believe Mamdani is much worse than Cuomo. Cuomo represents the system that made candidates like Mamdani possible. A vote for Cuomo is a vote to try to stay in place on the slippery slope. If he wins he will be seeking compromise with the factions that brought Mamdani as far as he has got and they will be increasing their power.
We saw this happen at the national level with Clinton and Obama. It wasn’t that long ago.
Cuomo represents the system that made candidates like Mamdani possible.
==
Huh?
Im not cruel enough to wish that result on anyone
We saw people set on fire in the subways the most vulnerable among us how did this happen, why dont they learn
Given how absolutely resistant people often are to “learning a lesson” I unfortunately have to agree with this. (Maybe I should tell everyone the story about this indoor soccer league I was watching that’s a perfect example.)
In 2021, just 23% of registered New York City voters participated in the general election. The other 77% shall reap the ‘harvest’ of their indifference. Mamdani’s ‘policies’ will complete the ghettoization of NYC. As the rich will move to ‘greener’ pastures.
Perhaps after Mamdani is elected mayor, he will echo the Dearborn, MI mayor’s declaration that those who speak up in protest are not welcome in his city.
The state legislature in mamdanis case the city council wilhelm is like a hive for these people
I dont get why more people dont turn out specially considering the stakes
Need to let people suffer?
I’m a Manhattan resident, and for your context, I have been a neocon reader for twenty years (if my politics are of importance to you).
You want me to suffer because I live here?
You want me to suffer because I live here?
Leah:
Not me. I dislike the impulse to judge, blame and fantasize about consequences.
Life is hard, people are fallible and some are innocent.
Leah, Huxley:
Totally agree with Huxley. There are innocent people.
I’m in Austin, & vote every election. But always on the losing side. Outsiders are always saying we deserve what we’re getting.
We do NOT!!
BTW, part of the problem is that the UT students get to vote. It’s a woke campus with mostly (??) woke professors.
But also, I think the election turnout is ridiculously low often, as Geoffrey said about NYC.
…
I detest how collateral damage is shrugged off … as we’re seeing from the “soft on crime”, evil people in power.
A conservative blogger I used to read emphasized that in the US we still had the options of “voice” and “exit”. Speak up to change things; or leave when they got too onerous.
I used to live in Chicago (decades ago) and was dumbfounded that so many people stayed, given the weather, traffic, costs, etc., because of family*. Now, that is understandable, but still only up to a point, as some of the discussions about the flawed views of our/your Blue relatives and friends attest.
And when I moved (back to) Florida, I was glad so many potentially progressive/leftist folks stayed in their respective Blue heaven/haven. As it was, there was a period where Red FL was turning purple, before a newer influx of Republicans came to pass (post Covid, etc.)
But you do deserve what your getting! We all deserve what we are getting, as we failed to recognize and counter the march through the institutions, etc. And VDH and others raised the call about immigration a long time ago, but it only became a rallying point with Trump. Many of us were actual or closet neocons of the “nation building” variety post 911 up until we saw how badly that viewpoint exposed us or failed to work. As commercial globalization took hold, I thought it was a reasonable aim of my defense contractor employer to further expand their foreign military sales (and local foreign support). What could be all that wrong with the rest of the globe becoming more advanced and prosperous? The voices of the free traders were also persuasive.
Perhaps the capture of the media, Hollywood, and academia was just too overwhelming for the voices raised in alarm to get through to the bulk of us until things became very authoritarian and open (Covid policies in particular). But I have been worried and alarmed about the national debt since the days of Ross Perot and my 1992 spreadsheet calculation that even raising tax rates substantially on the rich would not provide enough money to pay down the debt [back then, let alone now!].
We are the ones who have to face reality and take responsibility for what we learn. Neo’s blog and the commenters here have been very helpful in expanding my own knowledge and understanding over several issues. But changing the culture to change the politics still takes more than this august group can influence.
*I do have to admit that I was not an urbo-phile and thus I did not take full advantage of the good things a largish city could offer.
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Echoing the resistance to blaming some like Leah for their collateral damage.
If the great majority want it, then the rest are going to have it, too. Question is whether the rest had a realistic opportunity to get ahead of the curve, so to speak.
Outside of STEM, the rest of formal study or general information-spreading has an additional opportunity; the spreader can load it with emotional baggage. “Only the dumbest/racist/etc-ist believe the opposite” After tons of that with no countering, realistic discussion is fruitless. History, social studies, economics, literature…anything at all.
And see some science. Forget the facts, if it’s been labeled solid gold…forget the facts.
And since the loading becomes part of one’s personality, even finding out in your own catastrophe does not teach. It is always, must always, be somebody else’s fault.
— Mr. Bill
OK, this is spooky.
Just a couple of days ago, to get some time perspective, I was listening to old episodes of the Rush Limbaugh show on the Internet Archive, from various points in the 2016 election. It was fascinating to remember the events of that time and listen to what was then current commentary about it, with Limbaugh’s usual sagacity. I even remembered some of his comments from when I listened to the show live a decade ago.
But more than once in those episodes I listened to, was how often Republicans and conservatives, in every election at least as far back as the 70s, would make some comment that we should go ahead and just let Carter/Mondale/Dukakis/Clinton/Clinton/Gore/Kerry/Obama/Obama/Hillary win, so the electorate could finally learn how back the other side really is.
He then went on to note (in 2016) that several of those people had won, and the electorate didn’t seem to have learned anything from it overall.
If the Republican is good, or even neutral, he’s better than the terrible Mamdani or even the lousy ex-Dem Cuomo.
Terrible policies is not quite the same as evil—if Mamdani wins and implements terrible policies, this will be an excellent learning lesson for H History. Even a City made great by capitalism can descend into mediocrity, or worse, with lousy policies.
We, the wise who have learned by other’s mistakes, should not wish NYC to suffer, nor any person who has Freedom. I do not wish it.
But the choice is really between the 15% good R vs the 85% bad or terrible. The good R should not drop in favor of the bad.
It’s sad, and a national indictment against Dem dominated education, that most in NYC don’t know that his anti-merit policies are terrible. It’s better for the US to learn, again (an unknown known!), thru NY problems, than to have the whole country stuck with a Bernie Sanders or other socialist who thinks creation of huge amounts of wealth thru voluntary choices is immoral.
Even if Mamdani loses, unexpectedly, Reps & market supporting folk need to understand the political threat to a mostly successful economy. We do need better results for avg workers, even if the rich get less. There’s too little discussion of possible policies, so far not tried, to increase wages for the middle & working classes.
If Mamdani wins and it’s not so bad, so socialism is not discredited, we should all be open to possibility that our opposition to it has too much fear-mongering false crisis feeling over rational moderation.
If Mamdani wins and it isn’t that bad it will only because he failed to implement his policies.
I’m a Manhattan resident, and for your context, I have been a neocon reader for twenty years (if my politics are of importance to you). You want me to suffer because I live here?
==
Absolutely not. The trouble is that life is lived socially. Among others in Manhattan there is much fecklessness and not a little viciousness (see the juries drawn in the Merchan and Engoron trials). Their bad disposition will cause injury to you through the medium of the politicians they favor. I cannot imagine why they are the way they are.
BTW, part of the problem is that the UT students get to vote. It’s a woke campus with mostly (??) woke professors.
==
Texas election law should make it clear that institutional group quarters are not valid voting domiciles. Unless they are renting from local landlords, they should be registered in their parents’ home and vote by post and give those under 25 that option even if they are renting from local landlords. (People often overstate the significance of the student and faculty vote, btw).
Leah
It’s why I don’t live in Chicago anymore. Or my hometown of Montclair, NJ. Because I could see where they were going. It’s not a question of wanting to see you punished. Your going to get punished wether I wish it or not.
I’m originally from NY and ended up in MA too. Coumo is an awful option to be mayor of NYC. As bad as he is, Mamdani is much worse. Sliwa would be my choice but he has no chance to win. I’m hoping Sliwa drops out and endorses Coumo.
Still, it’s a wacky world and a wacky time.
There are a lot of wealthy powerful people in Manhattan who would be hurt by a Mamdani victory and they know it.
Perhaps more debatable, but likewise powerful Democrats who understand the price of a Mamdani victory for the Donks.
We certainly know Trump doesn’t want Mamdani either.
I imagine there is some interesting Art of the Deal going on behind the scenes. We may be surprised.
Curtis Sliwa, Let’s Make a Deal!