Will the Israel/Iran ceasefire hold? And what will be the result?
One of my specialties is asking questions to which I don’t know the answers – such as the above. But I don’t think I’m alone in not being able to predict the future.
Israel is saying it’s achieved all its objectives in Iran and will hold to a ceasefire. I doubt Trump would have announced one if Israel hadn’t substantially done what it aimed to do there, although almost certainly some unfinished business remains that could be activated in the event that the ceasefire doesn’t hold, which is always a consideration.
“Israel has removed from itself a double existential threat,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Cabinet on Monday night, adding that the IDF had “achieved full air superiority over Tehran, dealt a severe blow to the military leadership, and destroyed dozens of key Iranian government targets.”
The statement stressed that the objectives of the operation, which began on June 13, went “even far beyond” the original goal, calling the achievements “historic” and asserting that they place the Jewish state “alongside the world’s powers.”
It also noted that in the past 24 hours, “the IDF struck hard at government targets in the heart of Tehran, eliminated hundreds of Basij operatives—the regime of terror’s repression mechanism—and eliminated another senior nuclear scientist.” …
“In light of the achievement of the operation’s objectives, and in full coordination with President Trump, Israel has agreed to the President’s proposal for a bilateral ceasefire,” the government said, adding that “Israel will respond forcefully to any violation of the ceasefire.”
Meanwhile, Iran immediately violated the agreement (as I reported last night), with a deadly attack (see this). Was that a salvo from a rogue commander? A sort of “last touch” move? If it’s just the first of many violations, Israel certainly will retaliate.
At the moment, Iran’s position is unclear. But of course Iran is claiming a “great victory.” Does anyone on earth believe that?
Trump admonished both sides, and sounded especially angry at Israel. But I think that’s part of his attempt to seem even-handed and not appear to be joined at the hip to Israel. Meanwhile:
Still, oil prices plunged and stock markets rallied worldwide in a sign of confidence arising from the ceasefire pact, which was taken to mean there would be no threat of disruption to critical oil supplies from the Gulf.
I also think that Trump, Rubio, and the rest of the US team are smart enough to realize that Iran can’t be trusted, and they have developed all sorts of contingency plans. As has Israel, of course.
Interesting times.
Trump is a wascally wabbit.
It’s just a personal surmise — I expect Bibi will step aside if he’s assured Iran’s nuclear-weapons development is ended for a long time to come and the Gaza fight is coming to a victorious close for Israel. He’s been in the arena taking blows upon blows for a long while to see this work through, and once it’s done, he can rest.
Iran’s ability to finance all the islamic death squads it has been supporting must be eliminated. Once Israel is no longer imperiled by the so-called “ring of fire” that Iran had concocted, the world will be able to exhale. However, it will only be when islam is pacified and the shiite “twelvers” and the rest of that apocalyptic ilk are neutralized that anything like a global sigh of relief will be achievable.
Well the “facts” according to the media now say the bombing was an abject failure. Therefore Israel is still under imminent nuclear annihilation after they simply dust off the cosmetic damage the bombings did
I think that Trump believes that Iran is on the path to regime change and that it should be brought about by Iranians.
Israel has damaged Iran so thoroughly that their ability to repeat their previous behavior is not likely to succeed.
From the Liver to the Knee was a masterpiece. There may be opportunity for more such attacks on Iran proxies.
A cease fire now can allow Iranian opposition groups to find a path to regime change.
yes the air quotes are high in the sky,
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1937624347939573857
of course bertrand the Russia hoaxer serves up that ole time religion,
The “media” lies. It makes up storylines to suit its interests. Notably, the “media” doesn’t go to the scene to inspect the buried centrifuge halls.
Wait for the IAEA to do their groundwork.
now CNN just barely beats the Discovery Channel’s garish reality programming, but the New York Times has shinier mien,
lied Time Magazine’s Halevy’lied about Sharon, of course with Friedman, he may not initially known he was lying, but his book update belies this,
Richard Illyes on June 24, 2025 at 5:59 pm said:
I think that Trump believes that Iran is on the path to regime change and that it should be brought about by Iranians.
I hope it is far enough along for that to happen.
like ground hog day,
https://twitchy.com/brettt/2025/06/24/appalestinian-witnesses-say-idf-fired-into-crowd-of-gazans-in-line-for-aid-n2414689
they are the devils mouthpieces
sdferr @4:17pm,
I had the same thought. He is Israel’s Churchill.
Once Netanyahu is done, the left in Israel will resume trying to create a Palestinian state and take guns out of the hands of Israelis.
I don’t think Netanyahu has any intention of leaving office voluntarily any time soon.
Hope springs eternal. But I’m skeptical that things will change markedly in Iran. The thugs with the guns will still be in charge. Their religious zealotry will still be there.
I’m reminded of the way Nixon got the North Vietnamese to the negotiating table – with massive bombing of Hanoi and Party headquarters. A peace agreement was made. – the Paris Peace Accords. Hanoi did not live up to the agreement. They were supposed to leave the South alone. They lied. Two years later they invaded and conquered South Vietnam.
The Iranian hardliners can no more give up their desire to destroy Israel than the North Vietnamese Commies could give up their desire to conquer the South. They might say they will, but they would only be using Taqiya to get the time to rebuild their evil program.
Regime change from air power just doesn’t happen. And regime change to a non-fundamentalist Persian group is the only real answer to this issue.
I want this to work. Trump will do his utmost to make it work, but the Iranians are not the only problem for him. The Democrats will do anything they can to make sure he fails – just as they did with Nixon by hounding him out of office and withdrawing funding from the South Vietnamese at a critical time.
Sorry to be a skeptic. I’ve been around too long and seen too much.
Israel will take this opportunity to clean up Hamas and Hezbollah both of which no longer have an effective sponsor – Iran.
That was the whole point of attacking Iran not to mention getting rid of its nuclear weapons program.
Israel and Iran will now fight each other clandestinely, I’m guessing.
But I’m skeptical that things will change markedly in Iran.
Me too. But I expect they will spend the next several years dealing with internal problems, giving the rest of the area time to settle into new alliances. Iran without external involvement will be a different entity. Things to watch: Russia, Turkey, and the Kurds. Maybe even Afghanistan. Turkey has been remarkably quiet.
Won’t hold. But the transgressor will be more obvious. Whichever side it is. I hope that, if Iran does break the ceasefire most obviously, we’ll have fewer people blaming The Jews. Yeah, I’m a dreamer. But, to the extent it does happen, helping Israel will seem more legitimate.
There is talk of regime change, whether organic or imposed. There is also frequent mention that Iran is Persian with a bunch of desert/nutcase Islamists in charge. So, perhaps if the regime change is, in fact, organic and reflects the Persian culture we keep hearing about, there will be less trouble.
Saw, over the years, a montage or perhaps there are more than one, of women in the large cities of various nations now considered “Muslim”. From the Fifties. Wearing western dress(es) which were form-fitting, knee length, heels and likely hose. Loose hair. Big smiles. Includes Teheran and Kabul, for heaven’s sake. Not just Beirut (the Paris of the Levant) As in there are a lot of people who’d like to get back to that. Probably wouldn’t fly in the boonies but with massive increase in information/entertainment reach, might percolate faster than seventy years ago.
Be nice if it were true.
The implication is that if the mullahs are taken away to a deserved fate, and the sooner the better, our troubles will be over. At least as regards Iran.
And if western nations aren’t imposing a softer, for now, version of Sharia law on the rest of the population.