Did they or didn’t they?: Russia and the Azerbaijani airplane
I haven’t written anything about the Azerbaijani airplane crash and Russia because I’ve been waiting for more clarity on the story.
But so far, clarity hasn’t come. So I’ll link to this:
Early indications suggest a Russian anti-aircraft system may have downed the passenger jet that crashed in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day, a US official told CNN, as authorities recovered a second black box that they hope will shed light on the cause of the disaster that killed dozens of people.
The signs point to a Russian system striking Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 before it crashed near the city of Aktau, the US official said Thursday.
This is the first time the US has offered an assessment of Wednesday’s crash, which killed at least 38 of the 67 people aboard the plane.
If the early indications are ultimately confirmed, it may have been a case of mistaken identity, the US official said, in which poorly trained Russian units have fired negligently against Ukraine’s use of drones.
Officials from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia urged people not to speculate about the crash until investigations have concluded.
Of course people are going to speculate. There are all sorts of conflicting stories and possibilities; read the link for more of the details.
There are some survivors:
At least 38 of the 67 people on board the plane were killed in the crash, Kazakh authorities confirmed, including two pilots and a flight attendant.
Some 29 survivors, two of whom are children, were pulled from the wreckage, Bozumbayev said.
RIP.
Did they or didn’t they? I’d be shocked if they didn’t. Especially considering the reports that there had been recent Ukrainian drone attacks in the area.
We really need to give more thought to the way that we handle commercial air traffic in and around war zones.
Amazing that anyone survived. Some commentors that know these things, said the pilots did a very good job of getting the plane down. Seems possible that their electronics were jammed, making control very difficult. Even if Russians didn’t shot it down, jamming electronics most certainly did happen.
Juan at his channel gives a very good summary. He regularly analyzes aviation accidents, and has the expertise to do so. Pretty clear to him that it was a SAM. He shows the shrapnel holes plus other evidence.
https://youtu.be/1J04wUKZUCI?si=doFUaCo7Wi8YI26C
The pictures of the vertical stabilizer show obvious pellet damage from a warhead. The plane was mortally wounded by anti-air. Given Russia’s history of shooting first and asking questions later…
Who is this “we” you speak of? Russia? Shocked, I’m sure. Callous, cold blooded bastar..!
As a general rule, civilian aircraft know where not to fly due to issues having to do with war.
There were reports of GPS jamming, so perhaps the crew didn’t know where they were. Why would that be the case? To spoof drones?
I don’t imagine the Russians had decided to shoot down a random civilian aircraft next time one showed up.
Probably a combination of mistakes as to who wasn’t supposed to be where, and when to shoot. Or just some guy thought he was supposed to shoot anybody he saw coming his way.
If this was a MANPAD, as looks from the damage to be the case, the individual operator can shoot any time. You don’t need various other buttons pushed.
So, we are pretty sure what happened. The WHY is another question and there’s not much likelihood we’re going go find out.
Late news. US intelligence believes the Russians thought they were engaging a drone.
The U.S. is not immune to fratricide.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoYOsX2GpX4
there are a few questions that come to mind,
didn’t baku airport contact grozny,
how did the air defense mistake a plane coming from the east to one from the west, (direction of ukraine)
how did the plane make it some 300 miles to aktau on the other end of the Caspian sea,
One thing (SAM fired) led to another (hard, hard landing and 38 dead).
Callous, cold-blooded bastards.
Everything I’ve read points to an accidental engagement by a Russian SAM unit (i.e. nobody was specifically ordered to shoot at an aircraft the chain of command knew to be civilian) though some folks think the subsequent actions of the Russians such as denial of landing rights and possible GPS jamming point to the possibility they were trying to manipulate the plane into crashing in the Caspian Sea to avoid taking responsibility for the engagement.
…specifically, hiding the evidence—the shrapnel holes on the doomed plane’s fuselage—on the bottom of the Caspian Sea…