On the China protests and zero COVID
There’s an awful lot being said about the Chinese protests, but I’m going to boil it down to this interview with a Chinese dissident artist. I’m pretty much in agreement with him, from what I see – except I’m inclined to blame the West more than he does, for being reluctant to speak out in support of the demonstrators:
He says that China’s lockdown policy has been “mad” (as in seemingly crazy), and I agree that it seems that way. But it’s also possible it’s an attempt to see how much control it can exercise – although to what purpose I don’t know, because it’s causing so much upheaval within China and is so out of line with the policy of other countries, even those who have locked down fairly stringently. Why is China so completely dedicated to an unrealistic zero COVID policy? Why so very extreme? I’ve seen speculation, but I think that the most logical explanation is that they wanted to be able to boast of being the only country to successfully keep COVID away, and therefore are superior to the rest of the world.
Today commenter “Cornflour” offered a link to this Asia Times article:
Events have prodded China to speed up the schedule for a shift of Covid focus to treatment rather than prevention, according to sources close to the State Council leadership.
The sources have reaffirmed to Asia Times that decisions reached just prior to the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China to relax Covid controls have not changed. Indeed, preparations for the change have been underway since early October, they say – but now, with omicron cases surging and protests threatening to get out of hand, the matter has become more urgent.
According to the sources, further relaxation is now scheduled to start in the course of January…
Health officials and their direct superiors who have been promoting heightened control measures to prevent death of the elderly have been overruled. Local government officials who are deemed to have promoted measures deemed excessive – not in line with the 20 new guidelines for easing Covid Zero that were issued November 11 – will be reprimanded, according to the sources.
The report says the new plan is to emphasize treatment and to import vaccines, and deal with COVID much as the rest of the world does. I guess time will tell whether this is an accurate representation of the plans of the Chinese government.
Color me skeptical. Chian leader might change, but I would not bet on it. It might be seen a Loosing Face to back down.
Interesting in the quoted article they talk about omicron case surge. I’m not sure if it’s the original variant, but given the data I’ve seen I suspect it is. All China has done is delay what we went through over a year ago. We’ve even now gone through the small surges of post omicron variants. All they’ve accomplished is to delay herd immunity. And of course provide a blueprint for all those wannabee dictators here.
As I said yesterday, aside from the protests, pay attention to the struggle between local governments and the central government. That’s most likely where the wheels will come off.
The zero-COVID policy places huge burdens on local governments because they need to pay for all the testing and enforcing that goes along with it. That alone would stress their budgets, but it is made worse by the fact that one of their main sources of revenue is from selling land to developers. With the property market collapsed, that cuts into the money they have. I would expect local governments, which do have significant political bases, to be much more of a challenge to the CCP as it is currently structured.
With covid, Xi is in a trap of his own making. His propaganda convinced the Chinese that covid is an extremely deadly disease that is ravaging the rest of the World while his zero-COVID lockdowns keep them safe. He can’t just say ‘ooops, sorry about that’, especially when you factor in the mess he’s made of the Chinese economy. When his grasp on the levers of power starts to slip, it will be from other factions in the CCP more than anything.
it is curious, hubei where wuhan sits has often been at odds with the Central government, so has shenzhen proximate to hong kong, where they used the QR codes to stamp out bank protests, and of course, the latest node was urumqi in far northwest xinjiang, home of the uighurs, where the dominant population has been reduced from 51% to just under 44% in the last three years,
Don’t forget Shanghai. The major faction opposing Xi is the Shanghai Gang. Hu Jintao, the guy who got purged at the last Party Congress, was the former Chaiman and leader of that faction.
Shirehome: “Loosing” face? Surely you know the difference between “lose” and “loose” and their derivatives.
I am at a loss for words.
As long as the army supports the CCP, substantive political reform will not occur in China.
“Until China is free, the world is not free”
https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/20-seconds-of-crystalized-thought-from-bannon/
Liberty and collectivist ideologies are entirely incompatible.
Interesting that the Chinese people were allowed to tune in the World Cup on TV. They immediately saw the contradiction. They’re locked down and restricted. The people at the World Cup aren’t.
As the man in video says, the Chinese have no culture of political expression or change. It has been suppressed for seventy years.
Also, the West looks on and says: “We don’t want to say much, as it might mean we lose access to that enticing market of billions of people. Apple, Nike, and the NBA are leaders in this. As a result, things are not going to change much. Except, the Chinese may ease up some and try some other approach. We’ll see.
Marisa (6:11 pm) spotted the oopsie “loosing face”.
Sometimes we type so quickly that things like this slip through our editing cracks. I know I get embarrassed when one of mine slips through.
But calling attention to oopsies like this one is generally poor form. I think we need to overlook the oopsies and appreciate the writers’ contributions (unless we disagree with the oopsie’s author? [smirk] ).
(Also, not quite the same as Guam capsizing, from yesterday.)
Anyway, perhaps I can offer these antonyms as a way to clarify matters:
Losing face . . . . antonym = saving face;
Loosing face . . . antonym = tightening face.
Hope that helps [chuckle] . . .
Yesterday, the Hoover Institute’s almost weekly podcast “Goodfellows” covered two topics: dissent in China, then ever rising dissent control in US universities, most alarmingly throttling the sciences.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzuP3ZALE-c
On China, there seems to be some agreement that China’s Xi led CCP cannot abandon Zero Covid. Yet at the same time the perpetual uncertainty of lockdown guarantees low economic growth. This fuels widespread complaints and mockery of the state.
Therefore, the powder keg that’s suddenly manifest to us isn’t going to disappear. Rather, it either intensifies of remains recurrent, requiring ever more oppression.
One thing missing in accounts but mentioned by historian Niall Ferguson, who’s held visiting a professorship in Beijing for five years, is how old and sclerotic and multilayered their evolved surveillance state remains. And thus there are ways around it.
On November 11, the Chinese government released twenty guidelines that substantially reduced the strictures of the covid-zero policy.
All twenty of these new guidelines were published in an article at Bloomberg UK (https://archive.ph/QhcMB).
Here are three that are relevant to today’s report from Asia Times:
“Promote vaccine usage, especially booster shots for the elderly.
Stockpile medicine and equipment to treat Covid.
Halt excessive anti-Covid measures imposed by local governments.”
So … eighteen days ago, the Chinese government announced their plans for a greatly expanded vaccination program. I’d expect them to keep very quiet about their new licensing agreement with German pharmaceutical firms that manufacture mRNA vaccines. I’d also expect them to try stealing that technology. Successful or not, I’d expect Chinese propaganda to promote the vaccine as Chinese. Alternatively, it could be promoted as a great triumph of cooperation with Germany, despite the open hostility of the United States, the worst enemy of the Chinese people.
And also, three weeks ago, the government’s publicly announced guidelines included a directive to increase efforts to successfully treat those infected with covid-19. Again, this is consistent with today’s report in Asia Times.
Finally, although the November 11th directives didn’t use the word “lockdown,” that’s the meaning of an announcement that the excesses of local governments will be halted. Furthermore, it shifts blame for lockdowns away from the central government.
So … the Chinese government is already doing what American skeptics have said that they couldn’t do. I’m utterly repulsed by the Chinese totalitarian surveillance state, but I think American conservatives often underestimate the pragmatism of the Chinese, even if they’re Communists.
Cornflour:
Why would anyone say China couldn’t change? I can understand “wouldn’t,” but not “couldn’t.’ Seems to me that a zero COVID policy could not be sustained indefinitely.
Neo:
I don’t want to quarrel over couldn’t or wouldn’t. Either word is fine with me. What I wrote merely reflects what I read. For example, TJ wrote “”On China, there seems to be some agreement that China’s Xi led CCP cannot abandon Zero Covid.”
Various explanations have been offered for why the CCP can’t abandon covid zero; but, as far as I can tell, the policy has already been modified to the point of abandonment. All that remains is a new propaganda campaign and the successful execution of new policy. The devil’s always in the details.
“So … the Chinese government is already doing what American skeptics have said that they couldn’t do.”
So…what are the people protesting in China?
https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/27/china-protests-over-covid-controls-spread-across-country-after-fatal-fire
Mike
Cornflour; MBunge:
Despite this article being by NPR, I think it makes some good points. One is that the recent relaxation has only been slight and relative; lockdowns continue, plus they are way behind on vaccinations and treatment measures that might ease the severity of an outbreak if one happens. So they are caught flatfooted. Another problem is the lack of ICU units and the fear that an outbreak would overwhelm their hospital system.
Plus, the demonstrations are not just about COVID or lockdowns.
MBunge on November 29, 2022 at 10:39 pm said:
“So … the Chinese government is already doing what American skeptics have said that they couldn’t do.”
So…what are the people protesting in China?
https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/27/china-protests-over-covid-controls-spread-across-country-after-fatal-fire
_______________________________________________________________
Mike Bunge:
The protesters are expressing their frustration with government policies and actions dating back to the first outbreak in Wuhan. The shorthand version of this has been dubbed “covid zero.” I’d be surprised if many of the protesters even know about the changes in covid-zero policy that are now happening. The protests seem to have accelerated the rate at which these policy changes have been made, but the consequences of those changes are yet to be felt by the vast majority of the people. I’d expect that the government will soon mount a massive propaganda campaign to support its new policy, and to respond to the protests.
A massive mRNA vaccination program will be essential to the success of the policies. Neo has just cited an NPR article that makes some other good points. As I said, when it comes to policy execution, the devil’s in the details. Will the protests continue? I have no idea.
China admits to about 5300 deaths from the WuFlu. If the number is actually something approaching 10 million is that what the CCP is afraid to have revealed?
Why is China so completely dedicated to an unrealistic zero COVID policy? Why so very extreme? I’ve seen speculation, but I think that the most logical explanation is that they wanted to be able to boast of being the only country to successfully keep COVID away, and therefore are superior to the rest of the world.
No, it’s to crush threats to his power. Xi Jinping has only recently become the sole ruler of China. Zero COVID lets his people micromanage all Chinese economic activity. And Shanghai has long been the power base of his former rivals.
For a few years now he has also been accusing wealthy Chinese of trumped-up crimes and either confiscating their assets, or allowing them to part with most of their wealth to get off the hook. And he’s been having show trials for high officials who were potentially threats.
It’s not some abstract desire to show off Chinese superiority. It’s quite rational and prosaic.
Frederick:
He could have done all that without the extremity of zero COVID and all that went with it. Zero COVID has actually been counterproductive and has caused serious backlash.
MJR: It’s bizarre to me just how unbelievably common this particular spelling error is. And almost always it’s amidst otherwise fine spelling and grammar. And unlike writing “reign in” when it should be “rein in”, “lose” and “loose” do not have the same pronunciation. It just makes my brain hurt whenever I see it.
Tucker: (By shutting down AirDrop in China to keep protesters from communicating with each other outside the internet) Apple is now an active collaborator with China’s murderous police state. When tanks roll into a Chinese city, Apple is rooting for the tanks.
“…a shift of Covid focus to treatment rather than prevention…”
“…seeking treatment…”
What is this nonsense?!
This should have been policy SINCE COVID’S INCEPTION…meaning, over two-and-a-half years ago; and if not then, then two years ago; and if not then, then a year-and-a-half ago, and if not then, a year ago….
It’s STILL NOT official policy—not even in the West (headscratcher, that)—ah, well, someone has to earn a buck…and someone has to MAINTAIN TOTAL CONTROL—or as much control as possible…. Meanwhile there are those who claim that COVID was “merely” a trial run. (As for me, nah, I don’t believe in “conspiracy theories”, generally—just the ones I do…since for some reason, in “real time” these conspiracy theories have CONSISTENTLY shedded the “theories” part of the equation / expression / concept….)
Consistently.
(BTW, India and Africa, somehow, “got it together” with the help of all those infamous “treatments”—leaving one with the impression that, hey, sometimes it helps to be dirt poor…(!?); a case of beggars can’t be choosers? Either that or it helps to be open minded and/or NOT in lock-step with Big Pharma…?)
Or maybe those policy makers in the West are simply too, too smart. (Wouldn’t want anyone to think fish-tank cleaner or horse dewormer might work, would one…?)
Somewhat curiously, Il Fauci (Official Charlatan TO the President US) seems to—STILL—believe that lockdowns are simply fab! Wonderfully effective!
And indeed, it’s always useful to provide Xi with some friendly “professional” backup!…
Might this suggest they’re joined at the hip?
Fauchi might be joined to a more dorsal part of the Xi’s pelvic area.
Oops…
My “…seeking treatment…” quote above should have been:
“…emphasize treatment…”
(I can only assume it’s a Freudian blip…perhaps a shuttle hint that something is seriously rung…)
– – – – – – – – –
As for flooding the zone (a previous post)….
“Twitter’s First Transparency Reports Are Here and They’re Eye-Opening”—
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/juliorosas/2022/11/29/twitter-delivers-first-transparency-report-about-sites-covid-misinformation-policy-n2616484
H/T Blazingcatfur blog.
Then there’s this little tidbit:
‘CDC knew COVID vax associated with myocarditis but left off post-vax surveys;
‘Data released under court order shows 1 in 3 among earliest populations to get vaccinated reported needing medical care, missing school or work, or inability to “perform normal daily activities.” CDC still fighting to keep v-safe “free-text field data” secret. ‘
https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/premeditated-cdc-knew-covid-vax-associated-myocarditis-left-post-vax-surveys
But OF COURSE they knew. (Maybe THAT was why Dr. Walensky was weeping so copiously….)
Golly! “Biden”‘s “power-to-the-people”, “we-care-for-the-little-guy”, deep-state “government” seems to have a knack for suppressing things.
Kinda brings to mind all that election “hanky-panky”…and the merry, multitudinous prevarications whipped up by KJP–et al.—albeit not terribly expertly…)
Should be noted (for the billionth time) that they suppress all this stuff for the public good. (It’s the same reason why they steal elections…though this of course needn’t—and MUSTN’T—be mentioned…)
Hoping, praying that everyone will be able to sail through safely, i.e., be able to avoid the implications of all this…
Medical changer, UK cardiologist Aseem Malhotra, was recently interviewed for a full hour on “Tucker Carlson Today”. Tucker played a 3 minute clip of the doctor commenting on the Covid vaccine on “Tucker Carlson Tonight” that seems to get to the heart of the matter (pun intended). Add him to the list of high profile skeptics that includes Steve Kirsch, Robert Malone, Bret Weinstein, Joe Rogan, RFK Jr, etc.
China admits to about 5300 deaths from the WuFlu. If the number is actually something approaching 10 million is that what the CCP is afraid to have revealed?
Given the mortality rates in Japan and Korea, it’s a reasonable wager that China is concealing 99% of the deaths from this ailment.
@neo:Zero COVID has actually been counterproductive and has caused serious backlash.
Like all humans he’s fallible, and like all dictators it’s not easy for him to get reliable second opinions or feedback.
He could have done all that without the extremity of zero COVID and all that went with it.
He could have done a lot of things, but this is what he DID do.
My relatives who are locked down are monitored by white-clad pandemic enforcers not from the area. They are dependent on these enforcers for everything, including food. These pandemic enforcers are also of course dependent on Jinping’s people, since they are not living in their own area, they are obviously marked out, and the pay is better than what they are used to. The coffers of local government are being drained to pay for these lockdowns, which is yet another method of enforcing dependence and attacking an alternative source of power.
Zero COVID has been used as the occasion for unprecedented top-down micromanagement of the population. It’s the logical next step after the social credit system. Xi Jinping is really doing what you say the American Left wanted to do with COVID.
The idea that we have to “do something” [add desired number of exclamation points] is an argument which seems to overcome, in a number of people, the question of whether the “something” is actually effective if not counter productive.
California vs. Florida on the covidiocy: At least, California was “doing something”.
I suspect a number of people not in China are okay with the lockdown because it’s “doing something” which is an easier concept than trying to figure out whether it’s worth it or is horribly counterprouctive.
It’s been a long time since I lost count of the discussions where the downsides of lockdowns, masks, etc. were dismissed with an emotional, ” We have to do SOMETHING.”
This is not to say China is ruled by this dictum. It’s about the rest of the world looking at it. A number of folks think China is “doing something” and the more strict the better. And a lot of them vote in he US.
Hmmm, China wants to brag about having zero cases of virus.
If Western governments, the corrupt medical industrial complex, the news media and Big Tech had told the truth about Covid, stopping Covid would not be anything worth bragging about. It would be regarded as the big nothing burger it should have been.
Covid killed because we refused to treat it. We abandoned everything we knew about the science and embraced lies, corruption and self-harm. Perhaps will become the perfect symbol of a society that has become so mentally ill that it “cuts” itself.
Side note — without free speech our society has no way to ward off and defeat the sickness that kills and destroys.
Richard Aubrey, you are correct. And it applies to all liberal/Democrat voters. Since small children need love, guidance and instruction it is critical that government “do something”. We can’t depend on parents.
We have to “do something” or the economy won’t work. We have to “do something” about everything.
What we really need to “do something” about is to stop government from wrecking so many lives.
Why is China so completely dedicated to an unrealistic zero COVID policy? Why so very extreme? –neo
As I see it, at first there wasn’t a vaccine or any treatment, and the Chinese knew better than the rest of the world how dangerous Covid could be. I recall the fires observed by satellites at the time which many assumed were the burnings of mass graves.
It does seem that the Chinese managed to hold the line on Covid with lockdowns and contact tracing. I don’t believe the actual numbers were as low as the official statistics, but I believe they did do better than most of the world, which became a Chinese propaganda point as well — at whatever expense to their population and economy.
In the meantime they never managed to create an effective vaccine and because of their lockdown success, they have very little herd immunity. So, given Covid-omicron’s high transmissibility, if they drop Zero Covid, the disease will spread like wildfire and millions will die in a matter of months.
However, if they continue Zero Covid, it’s a great burden on the people and it’s killing their economy.
So, something’s got to give.
The Chinese authorities are starting to loosen Covid restrictions and they have turned to the Germans for an effective vaccine (which isn’t available yet and will take months to manufacture sufficient doses and to vaccinate over a billion Chinese citizens).
The question is how bad Covid will get in China before it reaches the herd immunity which the rest of the world has painfully acquired in the past few years.
The Chinese do not have good health care and they do have the highest rate of diabetes (a Covid comorbidity) in the world, which suggests that when post-Zero Covid starts to hit China it will hit hard.
I don’t admire how the Chinese have handled Covid, but Zero Covid makes a sort of sense. It’s just not sustainable.
huxley. “Zero covid” is a goal. It’s such a yummy, wonderful goal that it follows logically that it is attainable, right? Ask any liberal.
Sustainable? You’re not doing it right. You need to do it harder. Close more farms. No. Wait. Lock up more people. That’s it. Lock up more people.
Question is whether Xi and his advisors think it’s really a goal, if getting some of the way or most of the way there is feasible, and if so, worth the costs. Costs to whom?
Or is it the selling point to people who might believe, or if they don’t…this is CCP China. Matters not if they don’t believe.
As a matter of logic, trying for perfection will likely get you some way toward the goal so…if some way is about as far as you can practically get, you have to try for the whole thing.
The whole point of the exercise is that people not the virus are the vector?