Here’s a thread for discussing Hurricane Ian… — 32 Comments
Here in central NC, a tropical storm warning has been issued, and as usual, everyone rushed to the grocery store. We really don’t expect much serious weather here, but … the weather forecasts kept saying this storm would turn north, and instead it kept going NNE, and still is. We’ll see.
I don’t want to share too many personal details, but the Firefly home in Florida did not fare well. Here’s hoping physicsguy and the other Florida neophiles fare better!
Rufus, so sorry to hear you’ve got damage.
We read about, and have warnings about, storm surge, but seldom do we see it happening in real time. There were cameras operating on Sanibel and in Fort Meyers. It looked like the tsunami in Japan. Frightening.
Firefly – sorry to hear about your home. Hope you can get repairs completed fast.
I was in Ft. Myers during Charlie in 2004 and I’m sure that my aunt’s home would have seen some water since it was close to the river. I’m sad to see the damage in the city, FMBeach, Sanibel and Captiva.
If you are in Florida, I recommend carrying a tire inflator in your car. I had multiple flats from nails, first from the storm damage and later from the reconstruction.
I hope everyone is ok – say hello to the Edmond Electric guys, if you see them! I think the city sent two trucks and crews and OG&E sent 90 people. I think it is wonderful that the electric companies help each other in storms. We see the out-of-towners after tornadoes and ice storms.
Rufus T. Firefly:
Sorry to hear your home has been damaged. Hope you and your family are fine.
Rufus, so sorry to hear that. Here’s my update from the open thread:
My grandparents used to live in Venice, FL (between Sarasota and Ft. Myers). I am so glad they aren’t there any more.
I just got back into my home from repairs after flooding during Ida last September. I can’t hardly watch what is going on without getting sick to my stomach. It was horrifying, and WE still had a functioning community (other than right on the river).
Please pray and do whatever you can to help.
Oy. Very sorry to hear that, RTF.
Hoping that you’re all safe, or relatively so, in spite of the tremendous devastation and will be able to bounce back ASAP….
(That would go for everyone down there, certainly.)
Sister got flooded out by Harvey. Damage up to about three feet in the house. You won’t believe the cubic resulting from mucking out even that amount of damage.
This is going to be an awful mess. So sorry. Her advice is to deal with known contractors and abide the wait.
Saw that one, Barry Meislin, and it’s frightening. Also video from Naples, which had a large storm surge.
Praying for you Rufus and the whole Firefly clan. Swift recovery and rebuilding…on-going protection.
Sorry to hear about the hardships RTF, but happy to see the Gods have kept you safe and hope the damages are repairable and that your life returns to normal as swiftly as possible. Better put Pinky and Chicolini to work mucking out the kitchen!
Rufus T. Firefly:
Prayers for the Fireflies, and hope that Freedonia is on the mend soon.
Ouch. Bummer. Very best wishes, Rufus.
For many years, the trip from Ft. Myers to Ft.Myers Beach seemed to take so long, but I was a kid. I remember looking out for gators and the place where Mom always wanted to stop for the smoked fish hut. The distance from the city to the beach got closer when I visited as an adult.
Many in the media can’t seem to understand the difference between the city of Ft. Myers and the town of Ft. Myers Beach.
My cousin is not hopeful about their planned visit to FM Beach in January. I need to plan a visit to the area when they start to get back on their feet – need to support the local economy.
The videos of the Beach, Sanibel and other areas is just sad.
This was a bad one. Storm surge in such low-lying areas can devastate things. Flying debris can be damaging with winds over 100 knots. It appears that some in those low-lying areas tried to ride it out. Not a good idea. Could be some fatalities.
Thoughts and prayers to all those who have been badly affected by Ian. The road back begins today, but it will take time and patience. Beware of phony contractors. They seem to gravitate to these kinds of disasters. Hopefully, FEMA and other aid organizations can get started helping people right away.
It looks like DeSantis and his government have done a pretty good job of preparing. Now comes the hard part – repairing and rebuilding.
We’re in a manufactured home 2 miles west of Disney. We stayed in a hotel last night, but thankfully our house has no damage. A small number of houses in the neighborhood, however, are missing porches, lanais, or carports. Power won’t be fixed until at least tomorrow per a text from Duke, but we got a generator for our fridge and a few lamps. Thank God the weather is nice and not 90°! Husband is back to work at Disney tomorrow, if you can believe that (sounds like of the parks, Universal got hit the worst by flooding).
It‘s crazy to see how much destruction there is just a couple of hours away. Prayers to everyone in that area.
@ Aubrey – “You won’t believe the cubic resulting from mucking out even that amount of damage.”
I would believe you.
One of our sons & his family lived in Cedar Rapids when this flood (from the river) happened. I was already planning to visit them later that month, so went ahead (the airport had been cleared to re-open by then) and baby-sat while he and his wife volunteered to help the relief efforts — their apartment complex was not impacted, fortunately.
“Record-setting crest of Cedar River on Friday, June 13, 2008, More than 10 square miles (14%) of the City impacted by floodwaters, 1,126 city blocks impacted (561 severely damaged) 41,771 tons of flood debris removed, 0 – Amazingly there were zero flood-related deaths, People, 18,623 estimated persons lived in flood-impacted area,”
I had forgotten the actual date — that’s enough to fuel a lot of superstitions!
Thank you all for the well wishes. Mrs. Firefly and I were not at our Florida home during the storm and, fortunately the Little Firefly offspring who do live in Florida are well, despite being along the path. It’ll likely be a nightmare searching for contractors and dealing with insurance, but that is minor compared to what so many there are suffering.
@ JJ > “It looks like DeSantis and his government have done a pretty good job of preparing.”
On Tuesday afternoon, DeSantis’s office sent out a press release outlining the state’s response to the storm — and it’s extraordinary. Not only does his plan include assisting with practical needs like the provision of food and water, but the governor has also ordered agencies to cut red tape to ensure that people get the help they need, including waiving rules that prevent people from refilling their prescriptions early, and releasing SNAP benefits (food stamps) early to allow people to stock up on food ahead of the hurricane. DeSantis has also ensured that 100% of senior care homes have generators, and the state has supplies staged and ready to be deployed the moment it’s safe for first responders to enter the affected areas.
…
Many on the left — who are predisposed to hate DeSantis — have been caught hoping he’ll fail and predicting a massive death toll — because that’ll show the cons or something. But a quick glance at the governor’s emergency preparations gives lie to their predictions.
State preparation and response efforts include:
The list is huge, and covers just about everything needed, judging from what I learned from having been the Emergency Preparedness Specialist for my church congregations in both the Houston area and now in Colorado.
I doubt that all of this planning was done on DeSantis’s watch, but that he used it, and probably worked to improve it, is more than you get from a lot of governors, or mayors.
Or presidents.
From Liz, above: “… I recommend carrying a tire inflator in your car. I had multiple flats from nails, …”
Absolutely true, and it will be worse during, and after, rebuild as so many rooves get replaced. In 2004 we went through Charley (8/13), then Francis, then Jean, and Ivan after hitting the panhandle added spice by looping back through Florida as a tropical depression. By December/January 2005 the sound of roofing air nailers in the neighborhood was as common as chirping birds.
I wound up buying a couple used “toy spares” – the down-sized “emergency” spare tires – for Partner in Crime’s car and put a hydraulic jack and cordless impact wrench in the trunk because a fast tire swap was better than trying Roadside Recovery with a plugging kit and 12 volt compressor. There were days she went through both toy spares.
For my truck, alas, no such animal, so I bought a used – but still true – wheel and a new tire (mucho $$ for that size) and tossed it in the bed so I had 2 spares. Got lucky and had to use it only twice.
FYI, there are a couple good tire plugging kits available, and i have one in each vehicle, but the best plugging job will be done by a skilled tire repair shop. You have to get there first, though….
And, Rufus, I wish you the best, that the damage is not as bad as imagined and the repairs quicker. Glad that you were an observer and not a participant in this one. I’m starting to hear from friends in Naples and it was brutal.
NS, glad to hear your house is OK. My daughter lives in Orlando also, but northwest side just north of Colonial Ave. They are on fairly high ground so no flooding and minimal wind damage to trees. Her husband works at Universal, but we haven’t heard from him about the extent. I did see some pics of damage to some of the attractions.
Congratulations to the hurricane forecasters. This storm has finally turned north, only several days after they began saying it would. This is surprising; they’re often more nearly correct well before landfall.
AesopFan, it’s partly that DeSantis is a competent administrator, and partly that this isn’t Florida’s first hurricane. They know what can happen and they know what they have to do.
Kate,
I’ve been following the models for Ian all along. This year, the GFS has been off on its track predictions with a definite west bias. For Ian, the UK and Euro have been spot on showing a continuing east motion before FL and also showing the exit into the Atlantic and north towards the Carolinas well before the GFS and other models. NOAA has taken the middle ground on their official track which, I think, hindered their forecast and had the Tampa landfall wrong, while the UK-Euro showed Ft. Meyers.
Also, not many people know this, but the “cone” is an average of uncertainties over 5 years of model runs, not the current uncertainty in the current year models. I talked to several of my other experimental physics colleagues, and to us it doesn’t make sense as the models are updated each year, so the uncertainty in this year’s runs should have very little in common with runs from 5 years ago. NOAA may have a good reason, but on the surface doesn’t make a lot of sense.
physicsguy, I stopped accepting the National Hurricane Center “official” forecasts and started looking at the “spaghetti” models on Weather Underground. I could see the trend eastward.
Using five years of model runs doesn’t seem to make much sense.
So now this storm center will pass just to our west, and we’re going to get tropical storm wind gusts this afternoon, but other than a gloomy day stuck inside it’s not a problem.
A reminder of how vulnerable we are when nature goes on a rampage; and how random the results can be. My sister in Tampa dodged the bullet for the second time in just a couple of years as the storm’s track jogged a few degrees. In west Florida, we once had a tornado skip over us and destroy an area a few blocks away.
Years ago my daughter here in Ca lost her home in a mudslide. Hers was one of only two lost. Insurance called it a flood, and not covered. I commented that if you are going to be hit by a natural disaster, better that it is big enough to get government attention. This event illustrates how stupid that remark was. Sometimes a disaster is too big for government, or any other human power. Nothing but time, in many cases a very long time, will help the people in the path of this one–and some will never recover.
Empathy for those whose lives have been turned topsy turvy.
If Jim Cantore didn’t stumble around in the midst of the storm, how would we ever find out that hurricanes are windy and rainy?
Of all the stupid things that tv does repeatedly, weather talking heads hanging out in the middle of the storms while warning us to stay inside may be the most stupid.
“We all knew it would be bad. I don’t think we knew it would be this bad.”
“Fort Myers Beach, along with Lee County’s other barrier islands, took the brunt of Hurricane Ian’s assault on Florida’s coastline. The storm, a Category 4 when it made landfall, sent 150 mph winds and a towering storm surge tearing through the town’s center. …
The commercial center of the beach town was ravaged by the hurricane,”
Before & after pictures show the extent of the damage.
Carolina hurricane update: Trees down all over the place in central NC. Our power went out at 7:30 last night and is still out, thirteen hours later. Generator running. Duke Power says it will fix this by noon; I am dubious. Of course none of this compares to what happened in SW Florida.
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Here in central NC, a tropical storm warning has been issued, and as usual, everyone rushed to the grocery store. We really don’t expect much serious weather here, but … the weather forecasts kept saying this storm would turn north, and instead it kept going NNE, and still is. We’ll see.
I don’t want to share too many personal details, but the Firefly home in Florida did not fare well. Here’s hoping physicsguy and the other Florida neophiles fare better!
Rufus, so sorry to hear you’ve got damage.
We read about, and have warnings about, storm surge, but seldom do we see it happening in real time. There were cameras operating on Sanibel and in Fort Meyers. It looked like the tsunami in Japan. Frightening.
Firefly – sorry to hear about your home. Hope you can get repairs completed fast.
I was in Ft. Myers during Charlie in 2004 and I’m sure that my aunt’s home would have seen some water since it was close to the river. I’m sad to see the damage in the city, FMBeach, Sanibel and Captiva.
If you are in Florida, I recommend carrying a tire inflator in your car. I had multiple flats from nails, first from the storm damage and later from the reconstruction.
I hope everyone is ok – say hello to the Edmond Electric guys, if you see them! I think the city sent two trucks and crews and OG&E sent 90 people. I think it is wonderful that the electric companies help each other in storms. We see the out-of-towners after tornadoes and ice storms.
Rufus T. Firefly:
Sorry to hear your home has been damaged. Hope you and your family are fine.
Rufus, so sorry to hear that. Here’s my update from the open thread:
https://www.thenewneo.com/2022/09/29/open-thread-9-29-22/#comment-2645313
My grandparents used to live in Venice, FL (between Sarasota and Ft. Myers). I am so glad they aren’t there any more.
I just got back into my home from repairs after flooding during Ida last September. I can’t hardly watch what is going on without getting sick to my stomach. It was horrifying, and WE still had a functioning community (other than right on the river).
Please pray and do whatever you can to help.
Oy. Very sorry to hear that, RTF.
Hoping that you’re all safe, or relatively so, in spite of the tremendous devastation and will be able to bounce back ASAP….
(That would go for everyone down there, certainly.)
Sister got flooded out by Harvey. Damage up to about three feet in the house. You won’t believe the cubic resulting from mucking out even that amount of damage.
This is going to be an awful mess. So sorry. Her advice is to deal with known contractors and abide the wait.
Yes, like a tsunami, but with devastating CAT 4-5 winds.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1575253395304288271
Saw that one, Barry Meislin, and it’s frightening. Also video from Naples, which had a large storm surge.
Praying for you Rufus and the whole Firefly clan. Swift recovery and rebuilding…on-going protection.
Sorry to hear about the hardships RTF, but happy to see the Gods have kept you safe and hope the damages are repairable and that your life returns to normal as swiftly as possible. Better put Pinky and Chicolini to work mucking out the kitchen!
Rufus T. Firefly:
Prayers for the Fireflies, and hope that Freedonia is on the mend soon.
Ouch. Bummer. Very best wishes, Rufus.
For many years, the trip from Ft. Myers to Ft.Myers Beach seemed to take so long, but I was a kid. I remember looking out for gators and the place where Mom always wanted to stop for the smoked fish hut. The distance from the city to the beach got closer when I visited as an adult.
Many in the media can’t seem to understand the difference between the city of Ft. Myers and the town of Ft. Myers Beach.
My cousin is not hopeful about their planned visit to FM Beach in January. I need to plan a visit to the area when they start to get back on their feet – need to support the local economy.
The videos of the Beach, Sanibel and other areas is just sad.
This was a bad one. Storm surge in such low-lying areas can devastate things. Flying debris can be damaging with winds over 100 knots. It appears that some in those low-lying areas tried to ride it out. Not a good idea. Could be some fatalities.
Thoughts and prayers to all those who have been badly affected by Ian. The road back begins today, but it will take time and patience. Beware of phony contractors. They seem to gravitate to these kinds of disasters. Hopefully, FEMA and other aid organizations can get started helping people right away.
It looks like DeSantis and his government have done a pretty good job of preparing. Now comes the hard part – repairing and rebuilding.
We’re in a manufactured home 2 miles west of Disney. We stayed in a hotel last night, but thankfully our house has no damage. A small number of houses in the neighborhood, however, are missing porches, lanais, or carports. Power won’t be fixed until at least tomorrow per a text from Duke, but we got a generator for our fridge and a few lamps. Thank God the weather is nice and not 90°! Husband is back to work at Disney tomorrow, if you can believe that (sounds like of the parks, Universal got hit the worst by flooding).
It‘s crazy to see how much destruction there is just a couple of hours away. Prayers to everyone in that area.
@ Aubrey – “You won’t believe the cubic resulting from mucking out even that amount of damage.”
I would believe you.
One of our sons & his family lived in Cedar Rapids when this flood (from the river) happened. I was already planning to visit them later that month, so went ahead (the airport had been cleared to re-open by then) and baby-sat while he and his wife volunteered to help the relief efforts — their apartment complex was not impacted, fortunately.
“Record-setting crest of Cedar River on Friday, June 13, 2008, More than 10 square miles (14%) of the City impacted by floodwaters, 1,126 city blocks impacted (561 severely damaged) 41,771 tons of flood debris removed, 0 – Amazingly there were zero flood-related deaths, People, 18,623 estimated persons lived in flood-impacted area,”
I had forgotten the actual date — that’s enough to fuel a lot of superstitions!
Thank you all for the well wishes. Mrs. Firefly and I were not at our Florida home during the storm and, fortunately the Little Firefly offspring who do live in Florida are well, despite being along the path. It’ll likely be a nightmare searching for contractors and dealing with insurance, but that is minor compared to what so many there are suffering.
@ JJ > “It looks like DeSantis and his government have done a pretty good job of preparing.”
Not according to the Democrats.
But if you look at the facts ….
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/paula-bolyard/2022/09/28/all-hand-on-deck-heres-a-massive-list-of-gov-desantiss-extraordinary-preparations-for-hurricane-ian-n1633073
The list is huge, and covers just about everything needed, judging from what I learned from having been the Emergency Preparedness Specialist for my church congregations in both the Houston area and now in Colorado.
I doubt that all of this planning was done on DeSantis’s watch, but that he used it, and probably worked to improve it, is more than you get from a lot of governors, or mayors.
Or presidents.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/chris-queen/2022/09/28/flashback-remember-when-biden-said-that-the-best-protection-for-hurricane-season-was-to-be-vaccinated-n1632945
This advertising sign was funny yesterday.
https://media.notthebee.com/articles/article-6332f2023e9a6.jpg
Today, not so much.
https://nypost.com/2022/09/29/23-chilling-photos-of-the-aftermath-of-hurricane-ian/
From Liz, above: “… I recommend carrying a tire inflator in your car. I had multiple flats from nails, …”
Absolutely true, and it will be worse during, and after, rebuild as so many rooves get replaced. In 2004 we went through Charley (8/13), then Francis, then Jean, and Ivan after hitting the panhandle added spice by looping back through Florida as a tropical depression. By December/January 2005 the sound of roofing air nailers in the neighborhood was as common as chirping birds.
I wound up buying a couple used “toy spares” – the down-sized “emergency” spare tires – for Partner in Crime’s car and put a hydraulic jack and cordless impact wrench in the trunk because a fast tire swap was better than trying Roadside Recovery with a plugging kit and 12 volt compressor. There were days she went through both toy spares.
For my truck, alas, no such animal, so I bought a used – but still true – wheel and a new tire (mucho $$ for that size) and tossed it in the bed so I had 2 spares. Got lucky and had to use it only twice.
FYI, there are a couple good tire plugging kits available, and i have one in each vehicle, but the best plugging job will be done by a skilled tire repair shop. You have to get there first, though….
And, Rufus, I wish you the best, that the damage is not as bad as imagined and the repairs quicker. Glad that you were an observer and not a participant in this one. I’m starting to hear from friends in Naples and it was brutal.
NS, glad to hear your house is OK. My daughter lives in Orlando also, but northwest side just north of Colonial Ave. They are on fairly high ground so no flooding and minimal wind damage to trees. Her husband works at Universal, but we haven’t heard from him about the extent. I did see some pics of damage to some of the attractions.
Congratulations to the hurricane forecasters. This storm has finally turned north, only several days after they began saying it would. This is surprising; they’re often more nearly correct well before landfall.
AesopFan, it’s partly that DeSantis is a competent administrator, and partly that this isn’t Florida’s first hurricane. They know what can happen and they know what they have to do.
Kate,
I’ve been following the models for Ian all along. This year, the GFS has been off on its track predictions with a definite west bias. For Ian, the UK and Euro have been spot on showing a continuing east motion before FL and also showing the exit into the Atlantic and north towards the Carolinas well before the GFS and other models. NOAA has taken the middle ground on their official track which, I think, hindered their forecast and had the Tampa landfall wrong, while the UK-Euro showed Ft. Meyers.
Also, not many people know this, but the “cone” is an average of uncertainties over 5 years of model runs, not the current uncertainty in the current year models. I talked to several of my other experimental physics colleagues, and to us it doesn’t make sense as the models are updated each year, so the uncertainty in this year’s runs should have very little in common with runs from 5 years ago. NOAA may have a good reason, but on the surface doesn’t make a lot of sense.
physicsguy, I stopped accepting the National Hurricane Center “official” forecasts and started looking at the “spaghetti” models on Weather Underground. I could see the trend eastward.
Using five years of model runs doesn’t seem to make much sense.
So now this storm center will pass just to our west, and we’re going to get tropical storm wind gusts this afternoon, but other than a gloomy day stuck inside it’s not a problem.
A reminder of how vulnerable we are when nature goes on a rampage; and how random the results can be. My sister in Tampa dodged the bullet for the second time in just a couple of years as the storm’s track jogged a few degrees. In west Florida, we once had a tornado skip over us and destroy an area a few blocks away.
Years ago my daughter here in Ca lost her home in a mudslide. Hers was one of only two lost. Insurance called it a flood, and not covered. I commented that if you are going to be hit by a natural disaster, better that it is big enough to get government attention. This event illustrates how stupid that remark was. Sometimes a disaster is too big for government, or any other human power. Nothing but time, in many cases a very long time, will help the people in the path of this one–and some will never recover.
Empathy for those whose lives have been turned topsy turvy.
If Jim Cantore didn’t stumble around in the midst of the storm, how would we ever find out that hurricanes are windy and rainy?
Of all the stupid things that tv does repeatedly, weather talking heads hanging out in the middle of the storms while warning us to stay inside may be the most stupid.
“We all knew it would be bad. I don’t think we knew it would be this bad.”
https://notthebee.com/article/a-major-florida-tourist-town-is-gone-after-hurricane-ian-blew-through
“Fort Myers Beach, along with Lee County’s other barrier islands, took the brunt of Hurricane Ian’s assault on Florida’s coastline. The storm, a Category 4 when it made landfall, sent 150 mph winds and a towering storm surge tearing through the town’s center. …
The commercial center of the beach town was ravaged by the hurricane,”
Before & after pictures show the extent of the damage.
Carolina hurricane update: Trees down all over the place in central NC. Our power went out at 7:30 last night and is still out, thirteen hours later. Generator running. Duke Power says it will fix this by noon; I am dubious. Of course none of this compares to what happened in SW Florida.