Will overruling Roe matter politically?
Let’s just assume that the Court will overrule Roe and send abortion policy decisions back to the states. Let’s also assume that Congress won’t manage to pass some sort of bill federalizing the right to abortion in every state (of course, such a bill might also be unconstitutional).
Let’s just ask what the political results would be of a Roe overrule. Commenter “Jeanne” writes:
All the offended rhetoric from the conservative legal community seems pompous and beside the point.
I am having a hard time believing this will not annihilate the Republican chances of taking back the houses in November and the presidency in 2024.
The assumption that voters won’t really care about this seems just really dumb to me.
Maybe I’m dumb … hope so.
I certainly don’t think what Jeanne wrote is dumb. I think it’s a conclusion to which a lot of people have come. Certainly it’s a fear of a lot of people on the right, and a fervent hope of a lot of people on the left. That latter point is probably why this happened in the first place, and I don’t think it was the work and planning of one person either.
So, is the blah-blah of outrage “pompous and beside the point”? It certainly shouldn’t be; this is a big big deal, the purposeful political undermining of one of our branches of government. But anyone who thinks SCOTUS has been immune from politics till now is naive; the political pressure (and threats) from the left have been ratcheting up for years, and all nominations by either party are strongly political. What’s more, after Lois Lerner, all the ins and outs of Russiagate, the myriad impeachments of Trump and the legal hounding of Trump that the state of New York has been engaged in, plus a host of other activities that would have been shocking just a few short years ago but are now business as usual, the SCOTUS leak really doesn’t seem the same sort of surprise it would have been not long ago. I’m sorry to say that, but it’s true.
Which brings us to the question of the effect all of this will have in the 2022 midterms and the 2024 presidential election. I’m going to dispose of the 2024 part by saying it’s just way too far ahead to say anything. But what about this coming November?
I think the answer would be that it doesn’t “annihilate” the GOP chances. It may not even affect them all that much, for the simple reason that the people who are already so wedded to abortion in every single state via Roe were not going to be voting for the Republicans in 2022 anyway. Those who are against Roe will be even more energized to go to the polls, if anything (in fact, I was wondering prior to the leak whether a failure to overrule Roe would be the thing that discouraged a significant number of people on the right from voting in 2022). Those in the middle are probably more interested in the economy and matters of that sort.
The decision should come down in June, and if Roe is overruled I believe that the pro- and anti-abortion energy will shift to the states, where it belongs. Red states will enact bans or strong restrictions. Blue states will do the opposite. Purple ones will have a mixed bag. I see Roe as ultimately affecting state elections more than federal ones.
Of course, I could be wrong. But somehow, I don’t think that reactions such as Schumer’s call to impeach Alito and Kavanaugh will sit well with anyone but the rabidly leftist Democrat base. The supposed reason for these impeachment calls is “lying” during their confirmation hearings when asked about Roe.
Ludicrous charge, but typical leftist tactics.
[NOTE: Please see my previous post from January 2022 on the topic of the probable political consequences of overruling Roe.]
The politics of this leak can be analyzed through the various theories thus far propounded as to the identity of the leaker and the motive for such a potentially disastrous action. Many conservatives have suggested Sotomayor or one of her clerks or another enraged (“by any means necessary”) leftist, while Democrats seem mostly convinced that the guilty party is on the right (highly unlikely, when one considers the ever-important question Cui Bono?). One of the commenters to the article at NyMag (a worthless rag) suggested, with the approval of several others, that it was perhaps the doing of the nefarious Vlad the Invader. What seems beyond doubt is that Biden-supporters (especially women) will feel much more inclined to vote in November.
Overruling Roe is a victory.
A half-century political war is about to conclude.
As I see it, the SCOTUS leak has caused innumerable problems. Since it was a preliminary draft, the leak taints ANY vote changes that may take place (or may have taken place). If any of the conservative justices might have/had second thoughts, any change would now be seen as the result of political pressure which the court is ill advised to reveal. So it seems to me that the leak had the effect of freezing the votes in place as they existed in the early stages of the judicial process (perhaps this is the norm, perhaps not).
And what of the chief justice’s vote? Remember it seems the leak only tallied eight votes. Now no matter where Roberts’ vote lies it has no effect on the outcome and both the left and the right can claim it is an “asterisked” vote and deem it polluted by political pressure just as his vote to uphold Obamacare actually was. I think John Roberts is the single biggest loser in this episode since this vote and his Obamacare contortions will follow him throughout his tenure.
LeClerc:
Conclude? I sure don’t think it will conclude. I have no idea why you think so.
It will continue on the national and the state level.
j e:
Beyond doubt that Biden-supporters (especially women) will feel much more inclined to vote in November? I don’t agree that it’s beyond doubt. The ones I know – and I know plenty of them – were already highly inclined to vote in November. They had experienced no diminution of energy or enthusiasm for voting, the Democratic Party, or Biden.
Same for the vast majority of men I know.
I live in CO and to my knowledge there are no restrictions on abortion here. Yet, today an article in the paper said that Pro abortion groups were and are worried what effect it will have here. None, none at all since we are now a very solid Blue state.
Roe v Wade mangled proper Constitutional order, says the decision. We here aim to set the proper order back in its place, it goes on.
To that extent, this decision appears to me rather more a small beginning of a wider sort of politics than anything like a conclusion, for there have been now decades of decisions rendering disorder upon our politics and these may require decades further to undo.
A half-century political war is about to conclude.
It will be devolved to state capitals, where it belongs.
I suppose the leaker’s motive was mainly to influence the Court. If it was to affect the midterms, why not just wait for the Court to issue its ruling, which would be closer in time to the election?
If I hadn’t given up on my attempted copy editing, I’d mention the typo in the line “It may not even effect them all that much . . .”
Do you happen to know by what theory it is claimed that Congress has the power to legislate one way or another on abortion? Is it interstate commerce, or what?
Do you happen to know by what theory it is claimed that Congress has the power to legislate one way or another on abortion? Is it interstate commerce, or what?
The I-say-it’s-spinach theory, which usually cannibalizes language from the inter-state commerce clause or the equal protection clause.
Heh. See there? The Court hasn’t gotten around to striking down Wickard yet. Give it time to catch its breath.
bof:
I’m pretty sure the argument would have to do with interstate commerce, a doctrine which has been expanded beyond all recognition.
I wouldn’t go as far as Jeanne, but I’m similarly inclined. There is very little I can think of which would diminish the GOP’s midterm prospects as much as overturning Roe. Three days ago, I would have put GOP at about an 85-90% chance of taking the House and about a 50-60% chance of taking the Senate. If Roe is indeed overturned (and I’m still not convinced it ultimately will be), I would drop this to 55-60% and 30-35% respectively.
Forget about the diehards. Yes, an overturn will energize the left to vote, volunteer and contribute, but its impact would modest; most of them are packed in heavily blue states and congressional districts anyway. Whether the right will be further energized by an overturn is an open ended question.
But the crux of the matter are the swing voters, relatively apolitical and easily influenced. I’m thinking especially of middle class married women with kids. The ‘soccer moms’ of yesteryear, but also professional working moms…living in purple states and congressional districts often in suburbs and smaller cities.
This demographic leans Democrat, but not heavily. A significant number voted for Romney, although often found Trump distasteful. In midterms, they often follow whichever way the wind is blowing: Republican in 2010 and 2014, Democrat in 2018. They may be averse to Trump, but they have been appalled by Trans extremism and the push for CRT in the classroom. They also feel the economic pinch of runaway inflation and are very concerned by it. This group was crucial in electing Glenn Youngkin.
Here’s the thing: a large majority of this group are strongly, steadfastly pro-choice. It is not up for debate with them, yet most of them won’t cast their vote solely based on that issue.
Unless….Roe is overturned. That ‘existential attack’ on ‘women’s health’ will drive them hard into the welcoming clutches of the Democrats. CRT and trans insanity are winning issues for the GOP, but I assure you, no matter how much a candidate hammers those issues (or inflation, the border crisis, the stupid Covid restrictions, etc.), he will face one overarching question, ‘do you support the right to choose?’ If the answer is ‘no’ or ‘well…’, he will NOT get their votes.
The fed just proposed the highest interest rate hike since 2000. Several more are proposed. By November a full scale recession will be noticeable. In addition it will take several years of high interest rates to tame inflation. The highly touted Suburban mom voting group will not be pleased by their every increasing food, transportation and heating bills. I don’t think they will be worrying too much about Row vrs Wade reversals.
Almost all state legislatures saw this coming and moved to restrict or protect abortion according to their electorates desires. Let the Democrats exhaust themselves on this issue. Maybe they can gin up a few riots to improve their brand.
https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/steve-kornacki-turnout-nightmare-for-democrats/
The leak, probably from a clerk to Sotomayor or Breyer (there are two good candidates), may well backfire since the uproar will be 6 months before the election and there is plenty of opportunity for the Democrats to overreach. A summer of riots or an attack on a conservative justice will not help them. Meanwhile, inflation marches on and the recession may arrive before the election. We have one quarter of negative growth now. All in all, I think it is a wash.
In addition it will take several years of high interest rates to tame inflation
Mr. Volcker and his associates managed to re-stabilize prices in just two years (1981-83). IIRC, Mr. Martin in 1951-52 accomplished it in a shorter period of time.
Translation. Ackler doesn’t care for this. The rest be talking points.
bof:
Thanks, fixed.
CJ Roberts squeaks back at Schumer’s ugly remarks.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/04/chief-justice-roberts-rips-schumers-threat-against-gorsuch-kavanaugh/
Ackler:
You don’t cite any data to support your assertions about how Independent Republican-leaning “soccer moms” stand on overruling Roe (which is not the same as their stand on abortion itself, by the way). I’ve not seen any such data, either. So I have no idea whether you’re right or wrong, but I doubt it’s as big an issue as you think it is for that demographic, and my guess is that there are as many who are pro-life as pro-choice. But since overruling Roe leaves the question to the states, and since that will become more clear to people prior to November 2022, it doesn’t stop states from making abortion legal.
Neo,
I don’t have any data, it’s true; my conclusion is based on personal experiences (many of them) and the experiences of others I’ve known (both as a Democrat and a Republican)
The reality is…a majority of Americans are pro-choice and support Roe v. Wade (I don’t have any data at hand in that regard but I’m sure you could Google it easily). That fact is not an argument against overturning, but it is reality.
In this day and age, I know only one person who is pro life but otherwise inclined towards the Democrats: my mom (and honestly, she’s pretty fed up with them; I don’t know who she voted for, if she even voted, in 2020). But I can think of a half dozen people I know who are mostly right leaning but pro-choice, often strongly pro-choice. And I’ve casually known many others in the past.
Art Deco,
Well no I don’t care for any of this, it’s true. But they’re talking points; they are my observations based on my experience and the experiences of others.
To be clear, I think Roe should be overturned. It’s a poorly reasoned decision which invented a constitutional right out of thin air. But from a practical standpoint, I wish they’d wait until next year to do it.
What happens if and when the Supreme Court Marshal tracks down the leaker and they say they were acting on the orders of one of the Justices themselves?
NOTHING, if recent history is any guide
Neo – “Conclude” in the sense of the demise of Roe.
The fact that Pro-Choice and Pro-Life viewpoints will continue simply means abortion will be legal in some states and in some states not. New York is not Texas. Illinois is not South Dakota.
You are a great enthusiast for the arts. In politics your glass is always half-empty.
Bryan: maybe nothing on the surface. But Chief Justice Roberts will see this as a personal betrayal and the court will become more reliably conservative – not because he will make a conscious decision to move right but because he will feel he has more in common with the conservatives.
LeClerc —
The battle over abortion won’t “conclude”, it will just no longer be a “frozen conflict”.
The decision will likely drop sooner because of the leak. But even if it drops in June, people will suddenly discover that nothing changes in the short run. And while there is strong support for abortion in the first trimester, that goes way down when you get to the second, and is nearly non-existent in the third.
What will change is that the impending recession, rising interest rates, and food shortages will all sharpen voters focus onto things that affect them in the here & now.
The Federal Reserve said it was lifting its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, to a range of 0.75% to 1% after a smaller rise in March.
With US inflation at a 40-year high, further hikes are expected.
https://news.yahoo.com/us-makes-biggest-interest-rate-180326357.html
Welcome back, Carter. Stagflation FTW.
Neo,
Thanks for putting Lois Lerner in that group. That episode was so appalling and then she takes the 5th. And the malfeasance kept happening after it was exposed, with numerous hard disks being destroyed on John Koskinen’s watch.
On the political effects, while Neo is mostly right, Ackler is certainly right with some number of soccer moms who are pro-choice but, with Roe intact, vote Rep in 2022 based on inflation and/or CRT or Trans junk; instead w/o Roe, they vote Dem.
Is this 1%, 2%, 5%, 0.5%, 0.2%? My guess is ~1% (which creates a 2% difference) (neither I nor anybody I know of has reasonable data on this).
I guess a good number of Congress seats will be decided by 2% or less – those that Dems win, they win in 2022 because of Roe being overturned. A smaller Red wave.
I think without Roe being overturned, the pro-life Reps who don’t vote because of this is less than 0.1% — many Trump supporters won’t vote because Trump isn’t on the ballot, with or without a Roe change. Lots of pro-life folk held their noses to vote Trump in 2016 – but were happy to support him in 2020 (like me!).
Thus the biggest change with Roe overturned is that abortion becomes far less a point of disagreement for Presidential politics. That would be good for America and democracy.
If Roe is overturned, will it raise Bidet’s approval ratings? I think not. Between now and November, things are going to get worse, much worse. In a midterm election, as the pResidents approval ratings go, so goes the election.
“Supply chain expert: Rising diesel prices hitting truck drivers hard now, consumers this summer”
https://abc11.com/gas-prices-why-is-diesel-so-expensive-supply-chain-russia-war/11812171/
“Ouch and double ouch!”
“According to Real Clear Politics’ polling averages, President Biden nationally is at about 40 percent approval and Kamala Harris has a 37.7 percent favorability rating in the country.”
“Kamala in CA her home state:
35% approval, 45% disapproval, per new Berkeley IGS poll
Biden is at 50% approval”
“Kamala is 15% behind Biden in her OWN HOME STATE.”…
Athena @ PJ doesn’t mention Ackler’s idea, but gives an opposite idea – the hysterical Dem overreaction will turn off more independents. She makes good points, but I doubt they rise to the level of a 1% difference. A strong counter is “Dobbs Will Have Been in Effect for Months by November and the World Will Still Be Turning” – the strong pro-choice folk will see it’s no disaster for them, or for anybody, and likely other problems will dominate. [Len Rep pro-choice 1% cut down to 0.5% or less?]
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/athena-thorne/2022/05/03/no-dobbs-v-jackson-isnt-going-to-hand-the-midterms-to-democrats-n1594759
Acker:
From a practical point that’s a lot of dead babies for the ghouls of Planned Parenthood in waiting one year or two or ….
This Supreme Court decision will energize those conservatives who believe there is very little difference between Democrats and Republicans. Now they can see that even though sometimes it seems there’s no difference between McConnell and Schumer, slow and steady has won the race.
Various public statements one way or another about abortion don’t give me the feeling that the public in general is strong on the issue one way or another. It’s the kind of issue where the true believers, one way or another, will be loud. Others….I don’t hear much one way or another.
Given the particulars of this issue, I don’t see much chance of a mind being changed by advertising. I’d like to think that more pix of pre-natal babies would have a powerful effect. But that’s just me. Millions of people know this and don’t care in the least.
Couple of years ago, there was a report that an abortionist said the victim had defensive wounds on his little hands. Like to mention that to some people I know but to see them shrug would be…difficult.
Overruling Roe will have effects, but I don’t believe it ‘s a game-changer. The Democrats have overreached so badly, that they are only making the rubble bounce for those they influence.
OTOH the independents, blacks and hispanics who have peeled off from the Democrats because of Biden, inflation, border control, antiracism, trans activism and cancel culture, aren’t going to change their votes because of Roe IMO. They’ve got other things on their minds.
Plus according to polls I’ve seen, sonograms of fetuses have made a lot of folks understandably queasy about abortion.
Richard Aubrey —
I don’t have a link in front of me, but my understanding is that the longstanding majority American opinion is uncomfortable with abortion but unwilling to completely ban it.
I continue to be astounded by how passionate a not insignificant number of Americans are about killing babies.
It is bizarre.
Bryan
True, but a good deal short of a complete ban would be like a number of other “liberal” countries and restricted to fairly early in the pregnancy. Better than nothing.
Do other societies argue about abortion issues? Are Americans the only people on the planet that riot about the ‘right to life’ and/or the ‘right to choose’? Do they obsess about this in Peru, Tajikistan, Taiwan, Australia, India, China, Borneo . . or is it just us and, if so, why?
“Do other societies argue about abortion issues?”
No, because they got there organically.
Roe was imposed on us by judicial fiat, without going thru the…wait for it…democratic process of hashing things out in the legislative process. Then there are the advances in science.
When does a clump of cells have…a heart beat? and is, by way of DNA, distinctive? Also, the Euros for the most post restrict *OMG* abortion at 12 weeks.
I think it will have an impact in November, but not a dramatic one.
1. All the recent polls I’ve seen have shown support for abortion on the downswing. I don’t think unfettered access to abortion has nearly the support it used to. Even people who support abortion believe there should be some restrictions on it and no one believes that most, or even many, of the conservative states will ban it outright.
2. The outrage is coming from the extremes of the left. It only seems universal because the media and social media is amplifying it. Where have the protests and demonstrations been? In places where there’s no chance the state will place any restrictions on abortion…so what are they screaming about? The ability to dictate their agenda onto states they don’t even live in. It may translate into even larger margins of victory for democrats in areas they were already guaranteed victory, but will it change the outcome in closer races? I’m not so sure about that.
But, in the words of eminent American Philosopher Yogi Berra “making predictions is hard…especially about the future.”
Minor correction Skilly: it is only the pro-choice crowd that riot in support of their position. Pro-life folks typically hold vigils or quiet, permitted, marches.
The impact on the November election will be minimal. According to some Democrat strategists any lift from the reversal of Roe v Wade will be at the margins. What they really need to turn the voting tide in their favor is for inflation to go away.
This post and revisiting Neo’s January 2022 post are reassuring. The electorate has been buffeted by a sick economy, risk of war, and relentless shattering of social norms.They may well be paying closer attention to what is going on in politics than in the past. Even if they support abortion, they may decide they can accept Alito’s opinion and cast their vote for republicans.
I need to shake off my political pessimism!
Opinion polls I have seen seem to show less support for abortion nationally. Especially late term abortion and infanticide enthusiasts, like the previous Governor of VA ,have weakened support for the unlimited use of abortion as birth control.
I am prochoice and, as a resident in training did abortions in California when it was legal(1969). I do support limits and the 15 week law seems appropriate. I am opposed to an absolute ban as I had many experiences with illegal abortions as a Medical student and intern.
What I don’t like is someone like a young woman I saw as a patient who was a graduate student at UCSB and told me she had had 7 abortions.
Rich Baris, the best pollster out there, says that it simply won’t change much in November. Abortion is simply not going to change votes.
My take — If anything, blacks and Hispanics who have begun to seriously consider voting for the GOP are not generally socially liberal. Seeing the Democrats assault the barricades in Banzai charges for abortion all year will likely convince a lot of Catholic Hispanics that they are making the right move in changing over to the GOP.
This twitter thread shows where voters are today on abortion. https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1466433727966416901
Some important points — “pro-choice” numbers are down (not the majority and have not been for over two decades) and the designation no longer means what it once did.
Even a majority of Dems do not favor abortion with no restrictions.
If SCOTUS overturns Roe, I suspect nearly every state will legalize abortion in the first trimester. Since the sky will not have fallen, Democrats will be left defending 2nd and 3rd trimester abortions, which will not play well with a majority of those swing voters in purple states. Nor will the riots and protests by pink-haired nose-ringed activists. So no, this will not hurt Republican chances at all.
relentless shattering of social norms
I appreciate a good turn of phrase, and that’s a doozy.