Whatever happened to the Iran Deal?
Is it possible that it’s dead in the water for now? Dare we hope?
The US is moving toward ending its efforts to return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, as Tehran continues to make demands without showing a willingness to consider concessions, Israeli diplomatic sources said on Tuesday.
National Security Adviser Eyal Hulata met with his American counterpart, Jake Sullivan, in Washington this week to discuss alternative ways to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon in the event – which Jerusalem views as likely – that the Iran deal is not revived.
Multiple diplomatic sources in Jerusalem shared the assessment that the US is close to abandoning the revival of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal in light of Iran’s demand that Washington removes the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from its list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) and its refusal to take reciprocal steps.
The chances of the US and Iran returning to the JCPOA are “slim to none,” a senior diplomatic source said, adding that as time passes, the less the likelihood of sealing a deal.
If this is true – and I’m starting to think it is – what accounts for it? I don’t for a moment buy the assertion that the Biden administration really wouldn’t have removed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from its list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations, and that this was the reason for the deal’s collapse. However, I think it was an indirect cause, in that political opposition to the deal and that part of it as well as general objections to the deal – very significant Congressional bipartisan objections – were the real reason. Congress actually seemed serious about blocking the deal in any way possible, and the administration would have had egg on its face if that had happened and even Democrats supported the block.
The administration has enough egg on its face as it is, and midterms are coming up. Could be that they are waiting till after November to conclude the Deal, but it also could be that it really is over for the life of the Biden administration.
My other question is why Iran would continue to insist on that part of the deal if it really was a sticking point. After all – if leaks are true – Iran was getting so much else out of the deal that it seems to me that they could have dropped that part and still scored an enormous win. That solidifies my notion that the deal didn’t really collapse over just the terrorist part of it, and that the signal from Congress may have been that the deal itself as a whole was opposed by enough Democrats that continuing to push it would represent a big embarrassment for the administration.
NOTE: Not long ago I wrote this piece on why the deal seemed stalled. It includes information on what has been happening in Congress. There’s also been this sort of bipartisan action going on for a while.
I know so little about what an FTO designation actually means for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. From what I can gather it seems like FTOs get sanctioned and I assume any bank accounts such organizations may have in the US and othered allied nations are probably frozen or even siezed?
Certainly dropped off radar, yet I am sure this administration loves Iran. So is it going to be a end around the benefits without the agreement?
Barky sent that plane load of cash and I can only think the minions in that undertaking are still in place in Sundowner’s administration.
Let’s be realistic: John Kerry could tell the Iranians where Israel stores its nukes, including the combinations to the locks on the bunkers. Joe Biden would be gazing vacantly while Kerry did so. Kerry would be followed at the podium by Patrice Cullors of BLM announcing pogrom/fundraisers so she could buy that $23 million Malibu beach house. And 90 percent of US Jews would still vote for Democrats, and send money to BLM. Of course they’d incur massive chiropractor bills from all of the patting themselves on the back. but one must sacrifice for beliefs.
At least Hispanics are waking up to the fact that Democrats don’t, and never did, give a crap about them other than as reliable voters.
And I drive eastward on Interstate 8, watching the flares the Border Patrol is using to light up the desert in hopes of stopping one or two of the 20 mules carrying fentanyl.
Giving nukes to terrorist states would really resonate with the electorate in 2022 far more than it did when Obama agreed to do it. After the badly botched Afghan bugout, the Russian invasion and saber-rattling by a CCP that is demonstrating just how crazy it can be, Americans have a much better sense of how dangerous the world still is.
Plus, no one trusts the Biden administration (no matter who is actually pulling the strings). A large percentage of voters who may have once trusted Dems and news media telling them that the deal didn’t really give Iran nukes have been lied to relentlessly for years. I doubt they’d have much patience for it now. Especially with an undefended border that is an open invitation to terrorists.
Unlikely the Democrats can unload enough straws from the donkey’s back to avoid collapse in November. But I imagine that even the congressional crazies that might have been willing to support an Iran deal in ordinary times are pushing back against having to defend it along with all the rest of the Democrats’ heavy baggage.
“Giving nukes to terrorists” is the ultimate talking point that really does tie a nice ribbon and bow around the insanity package that Democrats have embraced.
A few things:
US wants oil and gas from Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia wants to keep the IRGC sanctioned as terrorist.
US envoys brings up Kashoggi’s death in Turkey when negotiating with Saudi Arabia. This results in the crown Prince yelling at the US envoys.
IRGC seized 2 tankers this month accused by them of smuggling oil from Iran to the US.
Just a few reasons not to be bragging about a deal with Iran being near.
Neo:
The Left never quits. Haven’t you learned that by now?
They never apologize. They always vote in a block. They never rat out anyone.
The Democrat party is run like the Mafia.
Cornhead, the Mafia is more principled.
The Democratic Party is a criminal organization, fronting as a political party, near as I can tell
One looks at the Iran deal. There is not any way to look at this as something good for the United States. Shutting down domestic oil and gas production cannot be a good thing. Allowing two million people across the border with no screening cannot be a good thing. All of these things are deliberate policy decisions.
One might allow that the Afghanistan debacle was simple incompetence. But these other things? Not a chance.
So why are they doing them? This administration has made itself not unpopular but hated in record time. The Iran deal was supposed to be Obama’s foreign policy showcase. Trump killed it and now it’s back, and worse. Why? Begging Venezuela and Saudi Arabia to pump more oil looks foolish and weak. Why are they doing it? Voiding Title 42 just about insures that they’ll lose the senate along with the house. Why?
All I can think is that the powers behind Biden–which appear to be Obama’s people–think they can get enough done, and perhaps codify the big steal, before November. After that they think it can’t be undone. After all, the Republicans had the votes to repeal Obamacare, until John McCain gave them the finger.
But today’s Republicans are not those of even ten years ago. Oh, there’s still McCarthy and McConnell. But they can be steamrolled by public opinion.
Ah, crap, I don’t know. Perhaps they’ll 25th Amendment Joe and Kamala and install Pelosi, who will appoint Bernie to be VP. They get the FBI to arrest enough Republican senators that Bernie is approved. And after that, there is nothing to stop them.
Neo does a very nice dissection. I was going to comment on how I was sure that the Biden admin. would desperately wish to put the whole thing on pause until after the election. You know, “when they have more flexibility” to quote Barack Obama.
But Cornhead isn’t just funny, although he is. He’s right. I disagree with FOAF. Democrats are plenty principled in Mafioso terms. “When you buy a Democrat, damn it, they stay bought.” I always say.
The claim that time will degrade the possibility of restarting the negotiations sounds plausible. I’m not sure why, but it does. Anyone care to discuss why or disagree?
Just cuz it’s out of the news cycle means nothing…nothing good.
If you recall, Obama did the whole thing surreptitiously back then. No reason Biden isn’t doing the exact same thing under our noses.
stan.
Those people who’ve been lied to for years….. Yeah, those. Either they knew it when they voted or they didn’t. Those who knew….still voted Biden. Those who now know….don’t care. It’s the right kind of lie to make them feel good. And there are others who don’t know and will therefore vote Biden.
You know, there’s a sentence, ” I don’t know anything about that.” It can be said musingly when finding out something or finding out that there is a gap in one’s knowledge. But you’ll hear it from Biden’s fans or other progressives when faced with a fact which harshes their mellow. It’s defiant and means whatever the issue is doesn’t count, means nothing, changes nothing.
As far as Congress is concerned, everything is about politics.
Stan has the right of it.
That said, it’s true that the Left never gives up and there are three major reasons why the Iran ‘deal’ is desired by the Left.
A nuclear Iran will hinder America’s ‘interference’ in the M.E. In addition, Iran’s promise to eliminate Israel is desired by the radical Left’s base. Plus, Iran possessing a strangle hold upon the Strait of Hormuz would further depress the ‘unjust’ capitalist Western economies.
Res ipsa loquitur…
I keep pointing to rob malley, the eminence gris behind the scenes, I first heard of him, with his apologia for the second intifada, he’s the son of an Nasser supporter educated at the same lycee as our secretary of state, he’s firmly the creature of qatar, a like mind with jamal khashoggi who shared the support of algerian jordanian and syrian islamists, hence the international crisis group which supports all of these, his connections initially prevented him from official status, but obama put him as intermediary with the first deal,
At least Hispanics are waking up to the fact that Democrats don’t, and never did, give a crap about them other than as reliable voters.
Well said, Gordon. That most Jews have not similarly awakened is embarrassing.
Cornflour:
Where did I say the left is quitting? I neither said that nor do I believe it
I do think that for pragmatic reasons they may be postponing it, probably till after November, not that they’re quitting. And even if they postpone it for longer than that, they’re not quitting.
I’m not quite sure I saw the point of the Iran nuclear deal in the first place. The inspections and sanctions were toothless and ineffective. The agreement seemed to insure Iran would eventually have nuclear weapons. Weapons which they plan on using on The United States and Israel. My memory is they never signed the first accord.
Perhaps the reason why the Biden administration is giving up on the deal is because it’s too late. Naturally it’s Trump’s fault.
“The White House warned Tuesday that Iran is only weeks from a nuclear “breakout” and the Trump administration is to blame.”
https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2022/04/27/white-house-iran-weeks-from-nuclear-breakout-and-its-donald-trumps-fault/
Gordon Scott:
You don’t know what you’re talking about.
90% of Jews don’t vote for Democrats now. That’s pretty much the statistic for blacks. Two different groups.
Polls and exit polls from 2020 indicate that Jews probably voted somewhere between 61% and 77% for Biden in 2020. These days Biden’s approval among Jews is 63%.
And Orthodox Jews vote Republican.
Because it doesn’t matter to Iran (or the US) if there’s a deal or not. Iran is still on the path they intend to be.
It’s just a matter of money.
And many if not most of the significant sanctions have been removed.
It’s all Eyewash.
IOW “Biden”’s specialty.
“The White House warned Tuesday that Iran is only weeks from a nuclear “breakout” and the Trump administration is to blame.”
Heh. Of course, THAT solves the question of why “Biden” and all those genuinely bereft mourners of Soleimani (sniff, sniff, sob, sob) removed almost immediately most if not all of the sanctions imposed by Trump on “Biden”‘s Best Buds in Teheran.
Trump told them, warned them, admonished them: DON’T DO IT.
And because he warned them they just HAD TO do it…. Couldn’t help themselves (even if they wanted to).
And so…it has got to be Trump’s fault.
QED.
…Just like the Afghanistan debacle was/is/will always be Trump’s fault!
Just like the southern border catastrophe is Trump’s fault!
Galloping inflation? Rising prices? That’s right, Trump’s fault—though it’s been recently “updated” (rather conveniently) as “Putin’s fault”….
The country divided? Trump’s fault.
White supremacists running wild? Trump’s fault.
Insurrection(TM)? Heh, goes without saying…
Energy issues? Trump’s fault.
Coast-to-coast racism (since 1619, in fact)? Trump’s fault.
Cities falling apart? You got it!!
Global warming running rampant (which it most certainly is…even if it most certainly isn’t)? Trump’s fault!
Europe’s alienation from the US? Trump’s fault, of course (but now, oh-so-fortunately, Europe can heave a collective sigh of relief(!))…
Palestinians a tad unhappy? Yep, Trump’s fault.
Etc…
Alas, it’s getting monotonous; but Trump is truly an invaluable gift…to be cherished!…(and the Democrats certainly know how to show gratitude! Not to mention grace…)…
…and as I’ve said several times in the past, Trump IS the first JEWISH president. A Dreyfus for our very own benighted, progressive, transformational, transitional times…
That’s right: scapegoating and demonization have finally “arrived”; and the best and the brightest, the most intelligent and moral, the most caring and compassionate can all finally, FINALLY, get a chance not so much to join as to BECOME the seething mobs….
Well, maybe “Biden” and his Mullah mates will be able to clear the air a bit, clarify the situation, remove the firmly-held (and fondly-held) delusions of all those caring, sensitive and intelligent moralists…
Maybe.
(If that should happen, though, it will—of course—be “Trump’s fault”!!)
And more on the M.O. of that ne plus ultra crime org. also known as “Democrats, Inc.” (though involving a potentially serious “faux pas”):
“Russia Hoax: Durham Staffer Accidentally Reveals Emails Showing Coordination Between Fusion GPS And Media”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/russia-hoax-durham-staffer-accidentally-exposes-emails-revealing-coordination-between
– – – – –
Regarding Saudi Arabia and the role it plays in “Biden”‘s policy of Betray Back Better, here’s an astute article (from Nov. 2021, i.e., pre-Ukraine crisis) on what’s been going on under the covers…
“Biden’s Middle East Dilemma:
“How will the president decide to value the prospects of the Iran deal against $6 per gallon gasoline? By blaming the Saudis.”—
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/biden-middle-east-dilemma-saudis
Now that “Biden”‘s policy of Blame Back Better can pin high priced energy costs on Putin, seems the Saudis are “off the hook” at the moment. But the dynamic—and the policies—described in the link still apply.
A problem for “Biden” in this drama, however, is that Saudis, while certainly used to them, tend not to forget betrayals—especially not betrayals by those who need favors and aren’t afraid of asking.
Ah, crap, I don’t know. Perhaps they’ll 25th Amendment Joe and Kamala and install Pelosi, who will appoint Bernie to be VP. They get the FBI to arrest enough Republican senators that Bernie is approved. And after that, there is nothing to stop them.
In order to remove Biden, you’d have to have the assent of Kamala and eight of the fourteen cabinet secretaries. Jill would have the option to scotch the operation by having her husband sign a statement reclaiming his powers. Then the matter goes to Congress and you need a 2/3 majority of both chambers to countermand his statement. You’re going to require the co-operation of the speaker and all four floor leaders and they have to bring enough of their caucuses along to get that supermajority. It’s simple enough if Jill and or Klain do not stand in the way, but if they do, it’s very challenging.
I do not believe their is a provision for placing the ‘Acting President’ on an involuntary leave of absence. Our political class took nearly 50 years to address the problem which erupted in 1919-1921 then contrived a procedure which did not actually address it.
Not sure why you think Pelosi wants Bernie in the VP chair.
Biden is a puppet like john gill, many of his appointees were givrn assent by republicans like murkowski and graham the authors of our pain
Neo,
You may be right–probably are right–about the percentages. I’m going on what I know of DFL politics in Minnesota, which has long had overwhelming Jewish support.
Isn’t the German word fremdschämen, the feeling of shame for what another has done? I felt that with Jewish support for Ilhan Omar. She’d trot out one antisemitic trope after another, and then the Jewish community in St. Louis Park would have a “listening” meeting with her.
More or less, the tone was, “Can’t you keep your mouth shut long enough for the check to clear?” This happened multiple times. It was even covered in the Minneapolis Star Tribune, which is truly adverse to saying anything unpleasant about Omar.
Admin has a Russia problem. One aspect of the deal is that the reactors to be built with US money for the Iranians were to be built by the Russians. Two problems I see: exposure of Russian tech during Ukraine war reduces the desirability (on the Iranian side) of using their tech even as a booster to Iran’s ability to produce nuclear elements 2) Current relations with Russia may lead to Slow Joe’s masters realizing that public perception would be really bad and therefor the graft would be more difficult. On the plus side, if they proceed they could re award the contract to the Germans – Oh Wait! The German greens really wouldn’t be happy about that.
SAYS.IT.ALL:
“Blinken: Iran has plotted to assassinate Pompeo, other top US officials while negotiating nuke deal;
“While U.S. work to deter assassination threats, American negotiators remain at the table in Vienna to work towards a deal.”—
https://justthenews.com/world/foreign-desk/blinken-iran-plotting-assassinate-top-american-officials-while-negotiating-us
Funny thing though: He says it as though it were a bad thing….
(Of course, this is nothing new…since Iran has always admitted that it can’t NOT seek revenge for Soleimani…which means that the real—the TRUTHFUL—headline should be:
“Blinken: WE have continued—and will continue—to negotiate nuke deal with Iran EVEN THOUGH IRAN IS PLOTTING TO ASSASSINATE POMPEO AND OTHER TOP US OFFICIALS…”
There. Fixed it.)
Art Deco,
Joe has followed hard left economics since he took office. Bernie is chair of the Senate budget committee, which I suspect makes Pete Domenici roll over in his grave.
I don’t think Pelosi wants Bernie. But such a deal could be struck to get the senate’s Democrats to get in line. There’s also that pesky bit in the 25th Amendment: “Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, . . . ”
Can Congress designate an ad hoc committee to judge the president’s fitness? Can they do that without the president signing off on it?
I think their dream is to somehow ditch Kamala, have Biden appoint Obama, who graciously agrees to serve to unify the country, and then Joe gets the 25th amendment axe.
They could appoint Stacey Abrams to be VP.
“…25th Amendment…”
But what if they’re ALL totally off their rockers?
(Asking the truly important questions….)
Gordon Scott
Ninety percent…. Sixty percent…. Why any percent at all?
Decades ago, in my career, I was associated with an agency which whose management and most staff were Jewish. They seemed about as rational as anybody I’d ever met. No wishful thinking. Up was not down because it made you feel good.
While I doubt that many of them are still around, I can’t believe their younger like do not exist.
Was I looking at some island of….something or other? They were Jewish, with some various vocab from the Yiddish, I suppose, in casual conversation, but no obvious signs of observance.
I don’t see them voting dem. After all, if you judge a candidate by his supporters–as many do–there’s not much to say for a lot of dems.
The influence of the Czarist pogroms on their ancestors, which is said to be a cultural memory driving many Jews leftward, can’t still be a Thing, now, can it?
Their grandparents may have been refused entrance to a country club well within their means. It’s their kids who are being violently attacked by those who are not republicans. To which do you attach most meaning?
The rural bumpkin stereotype (as republican) may still be current in a lot of places, but it’s not particularly associated with anti-Semitism, is it?
Said it before, going to be funny/sad when Jews discover their safe spaces are NASCAR events and Baptist churches.
Neo and Gordon Scott-with regard to the why Jews vote Democrat-
There may be two factors in play. The first is that the biggest determinant of our opinions is what our neighbors think. Most Jews live in traditionally liberal areas so that is one explanation. The ardently pro-slavery Jews of the confederacy, yes they existed, supports that argument. The other is that over time the ethnic Jewish identity has been supplanted by identity with the Democratic Party. The question then is why so many Democrats still regard themselves as Jews?
Bob From Virginia:
Often it’s the world that regards them as Jews, rather than the people themselves (who do sometimes call themselves “ethnic Jews”, however).