Putin’s nuclear-missile-rattling
Poor innocent Russia, threatened on all sides by enemies while minding its own peaceful business, wants everyone in the world to know it’s prepared and ready:
Russia announced on Wednesday it had successfully launched a new missile that it said could deploy nuclear warheads at hypersonic speeds anywhere in the world and outwit defenses, a move that President Vladimir V. Putin said was aimed at showing Russia’s adversaries that they needed to “think twice” before threatening his country.
Russia’s been a nuclear power for over seventy years, and for many of those years it’s had a plethora of nuclear weaponry. Maybe I’m forgetting – the Cold War had such a high degree of threat and I was young enough that perhaps I wasn’t paying much attention – but I don’t remember this high a level of global nuclear threat talk from Russia before.
However:
But even if the test was successful, the new missile does not appear ready for use. The Russian Defense Ministry said Wednesday’s test launch of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile was its first and that it would enter Russia’s arsenal only “after the completion of the testing program.” There was no immediate comment from American officials about the launch.
Mr. Putin first announced Russia had developed the Sarmat in 2018, but his decision to test it on Wednesday appeared intended to send a blunt message in the middle of the war in Ukraine…
Mr. Putin said in his brief remarks that the Sarmat consisted only of Russian-made components, an apparent attempt to show that Russia’s defense industry was undaunted by Western economic sanctions.
I don’t know how much respect we can have for “Russian-made components” at this point. But no one wants to have to find out.
ADDENDUM:
This event seems to be at least slightly relevant, or perhaps symbolic:
Thursday, a fire ripped through the Russian Ministry of Defense’s 2nd Central Scientific-Research Institute in Tver, some 80 miles northeast of Moscow.
This “research institute” is responsible for designing surface-to-air missiles and ballistic missiles for Russia’s aerospace military programs…
The official story is that old construction and flammable insulation caught fire.
As the author of the piece points out, “Housing a critical design facility in a firetrap speaks volumes for the state of Russia’s military.”
My first thought when reading about the fire in the military weapon research facility is that it was an inside job. Someone in Russia trying to impede Russia’s ability to test and design weaponry.
Were the “successful launch” and the fire in any way related?
Maybe I’m forgetting – the Cold War had such a high degree of threat and I was young enough that perhaps I wasn’t paying much attention – but I don’t remember this high a level of global nuclear threat talk from Russia before.
I think that is correct in terms of public talk from the Soviet Union/Russia. However, I saw some documentary in the last 20 years where they claimed that unbeknownst to the US public, the Soviets had already installed short range ballistic missiles in Cuba before the affair had ballooned into a crisis. That was some deep doo-doo, if true.
It’s been my impression that nuclear ballistics tech is one of the only areas that Russia has at least tried to maintain a parity or near parity with the US since they inherited the old Soviet infrastructure. But I certainly can’t say anything definitive beyond that. And as you say and as we’ve seen overy the past month, just because they have advanced tech doesn’t mean that it’s been 1). well maintained and 2.) they’re going to use it effectively.
As to the “Russian-made components” statement, it strikes me as a little pathetic to point that out at this point. I think everyone assumes that the vast majority of their nuke tech (not to mention all their military tech in general) is domestically produced anyway. So whatever. In fact, the more Putin says stuff like this, the more convinced I become that he may actually be in real trouble.
The people running Biden seem willing to risk nuclear war to hide his incompetence in governing. Many are far left ideologues who seem to hate this country. It does worry me to see those people who hate the country running things. They are as incompetent as he is but it takes less competence to destroy than to build.
Missiles?
Missiles: https://www.algemeiner.com/2022/04/21/israeli-war-planes-strike-hamas-targets-in-response-to-rocket-attack/
Mike K:
Take a deep breath, Brandon and his junta are incompetent idealogs but Vlad is doing his best to dictate world policy irregardless of Brandon’s poll numbers. How low can his polls go? Brandon’s junta doesn’t seem to care; they haven’t moderated jack.
Or more likely a deterrent to remind the cognitively challenged European ‘leadership’ not threaten nukes with Russia. Similar to Putin’s very targeted use of hypersonics and cruise missiles at the NATO training center near Lviv; and the and depot by the Polish border.
Many are far left ideologues who seem to hate this country. It does worry me to see those people who hate the country running things.
Blinken, Austin, Garland, and Mayorkas should end their days in exile if not in Guantanamo.
Hong:
“Precisely targeted” and “Roosia’s armed forces” are two things that don’t go together. Sort of like feint and Kyiv or Moskva and afloat.
IIRC, Vlad has been threatening to nuke Europe and other unspecified threats since his little adventure began.
Did you miss that?
Rufus: more likely the work of Ukrainians or their agents. Someone who is ideologically in agreement would make it even easier.
If Ukraine can cause sufficient “accidents” in key Russian facilities, then Putin will have to start guarding them. With troops he doesn’t have. It also increases the bill to Russia every time an oil refinery goes up or weapons facility burns down.
It’s hard to know though, because the one thing we know for certain (from the Moskva) is that the Russians won’t be admitting it.
Hard for me to see how Ukrainians, at this juncture, could engineer a hit on a facility 40-some miles outside of Moscow. More likely it’s an inside job, or, as the Russians are saying, an accident in an old building. Seems like an odd place, though, to have a top-level design facility.
Neo: “Maybe I’m forgetting – the Cold War had such a high degree of threat and I was young enough that perhaps I wasn’t paying much attention – but I don’t remember this high a level of global nuclear threat talk from Russia before.”
Perhaps in my early 60s I’m too young to exactly remember the rhetoric of the cold war in detail; but, I don’t remember the threats from the Soviet Union being so blatant back then either.
There was Khrushchev’s infamous “We will bury you.” But, a Russian Language teacher in high school told us that was not the threat that many took it to be. She explained that in English it sounds like a threat; but, that in the original Russian it simply meant that we will outlast you. And that what he meant was your system will not survive – Communism is the wave of the future. Sort of like a modern day equivalent of “history is on our side.” Perhaps, not a nice thing to say; but not the threat it sounds like in English.
There were Soviet troops in Eastern Europe; but, not doing the widespread (and seemingly random) damage to whole cities that Russian troops are doing in Ukraine now. Nor do I remember civilians (aside from protesters) being the target of military actions. Or did it happen but the news was blocked out?
There was activity to move nuclear missiles into places – but, both sides didn’t open threatened each other with angry-sounding rhetoric. Nothing like a “we are going to blast to you kingdom come!”
So, yea, from my memory the cold-war wasn’t as threatening as Putin is now. I also feel that during the cold war it wasn’t just one person in charge of the Soviet Union. There may have been one ultimate leader; but, that the Politburo called some of the shots. Or is it my memory wrong that thinks if one leader became too out of control the Politburo would replace him? With Putin it doesn’t seem that way. Too many of Putin’s political foes end up being poisoned. Would anyone dare challenge him if his actions threatened Russia or if his actions threatened the world? Have many of those who surround him been silenced for fear of being poisoned themselves? It is this that makes me fear Putin’s actions, and his words, more.
I think it perhaps a very a good thing when nuclear weapons are not maintained sufficiently. Though I assume that’s less true of our nuclear ICBM subs.
Unfortunately, China’s is expanding its nuclear ICBMs, which presumably are new.
“Poor innocent Russia, threatened on all sides by enemies while minding its own peaceful business” neo
“The U.S. is sending another $800 million in military aid to Ukraine, President Joe Biden announced Thursday from the White House.”
6000+ nuclear warheads would seem to argue that we not unnecessarily poke the bear. Of course, “unnecessarily” is an ambiguous term… until it isn’t. Generally, bears don’t react well when poked.
But nothing to see here, surely Putin’s Russia can’t actually see itself as threatened, right?
Geoffrey Britain:
I see that you’ve made a groundbreaking discovery and reversed the arrow of time.
You write:
In case you missed it, Russia invaded Ukraine and is trying to destroy much of the country and many of its people.
Geoffrey doesn’t appearently realize that our nuclear triad (that would be three things, submarine ICBMs, land based ICBMs, and nuclear armed bombers (bombs and cruize missiles)) all have to be maintained. Tritium decays, pits corrode, electronics fail, explosives become unreliable(?). All is called maintenance. And of course you have to pull some missiles out of inventory and test them to thtest range from time to time.
There is a lot that Geoffrey doesn’t recognize it seems. Not only just who actually invaded whom; “This is supposed to be a happy occassion …” at Vlad’s swamp dacha.
but wait, there’s more!:
Russia’s largest chemical plant — the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in the city of Kineshma — burned to the ground in the SECOND mystery fire today.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1517172233629626368
Son of Stuxnet? Vlad is tangled up with Iran’s nuke program after all.
How does that work Hong?
“Geoffrey doesn’t appearently realize that our nuclear triad (that would be three things, submarine ICBMs, land based ICBMs, and nuclear armed bombers (bombs and cruize missiles)) all have to be maintained. There is a lot that Geoffrey doesn’t recognize it seems.”
I suggest that you pluck the beam from your eye before pointing to the splinter in my eye.
“Center Releases Crucial Analysis by Dr. Mark Schneider on America’s Deteriorating Nuclear Deterrent”
https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/center-releases-crucial-analysis-by-dr-mark-schneider-on-americas-deteriorating-nuclear-deterrent/
That report was released in 2017 so the average age of our nuclear arsenal is now at least 39-40 years old. Bu I won’t hold my breath waiting for a retraction. An apology would of course be far too much to expect.
neo,
You stated, “Poor innocent Russia, threatened on all sides by enemies while minding its own peaceful business”
As part of my response, I quoted “The U.S. is sending another $800 million in military aid to Ukraine, President Joe Biden announced Thursday from the White House.” that’s dated today April 21, 2022
https://nypost.com/2022/04/21/biden-sending-800m-more-in-ukraine-aid-war-entering-next-phase/
How is that reversing “the arrow of time”?
“In case you missed it, Russia invaded Ukraine and is trying to destroy much of the country and many of its people.”
When have I ever disputed that circumstance? We disagree on Putin’s primary motivation being strategic and the motivations behind NATO’s actions but not on Putin’s actions.
I’ve refrained from directing snark at you even when I’ve felt justified in doing so. But in case it’s escaped your notice, it’s not a good look for you.
Geoffrey:
Eat this quote, you wrote it:
I think it perhaps a very a good thing when nuclear weapons are not maintained sufficiently. Though I assume that’s less true of our nuclear ICBM subs.
Your words, not those written in 2017 and cited above after the fact. Spin for Vlad all you may. It’s you goal it seems, existential even.
Curious how you self justify behavior, and being ever so humble to decide what is good for our hostess, Arrogance, much? Pomposity? Self aggrandizement?
Geoffrey Britain:
You call that snark?
The reversal of time is in your neglecting cause and effect. CAUSE – Russia invading Ukraine – comes first.
And reprimanding me for supposed snark that isn’t even especially snarky is not a good look foryou, actually.
And now the boss throws sand around the playground. Somebody bite the ears off your chocolate bunny?
Jumpin Jehoshaphat! What bizarre hell-world are we living in?
@ John G > “What bizarre hell-world are we living in?”
Well, we aren’t yet at the level of a faculty committee discussing who should get the best offices & lighter class loads, but it’s getting close.
While we’re waiting for the playground to settle down, streiff linked an interesting time-lapse map of the Russian incursions into Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1517149853520134144
“The U.S. is sending another $800 million in military aid to Ukraine, President Joe Biden announced Thursday from the White House.” that’s dated today April 21, 2022.”
This sickens me, How about securing our southern border instead? Never mind, This seems to fit with all the policies in place to destroy our own country from within. Whether its new crack pipes for the drug-addicted or tax-payer provided housing, etc for the refugees that in no way are being groomed into what is now formerly the American way of life. Daily curbside discard of furniture is the evidence of that.
For me, the most painful thing about the war on a human level has been the fact that Orthodox people are killing and getting killed on both sides in large numbers during, now, Holy Week. I am not confident that Patriarch +Kiril will demand of Putin a cease-fire to respect at least the next few days; or, if His Holiness were to do so, that Putin would pay it any mind, other than perhaps to do as rulers of the past had done in some cases – I think Metropolitan Philip and of course St. Tikhon – and simply jail or execute him.
As of this very moment, those Orthodox churches that can still hold services safely in Ukraine are hopefully proceeding with the service commemorating Christ’s burial especially, including the Lamentations. It’s hard for me to imagine the full range of emotional coloration that those famous hymns would take on when sung within an active war zone. Of course, it won’t be the first time that this has happened. But I hope the faithful there can gain some spiritual benefit in these days.
We are dismantling this country shipping most of our weapons, ovee to ukraine along with our oil to europe
Clowns with extra shoes
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-says-gas-payments-may-be-possible-under-russian-roubles-proposal-without-2022-04-22/
@Hong
Ah yes, if it isn’t one of the great pieces of sleaze to pollute this site. I’ve dealt with you more substantially here.
https://www.thenewneo.com/2022/04/19/on-ukraine-being-wrong-over-and-over-doesnt-seem-to-stop-colonel-macgregor/
Except the main side threatening or hinting at the deployment or use of WMD has been Putin, and not surprising given how since about the 1980s or so the West has had the whip hand conventionally in comparison to Russia’s large Nuclear arsenal.
We will see. But a regime that struggles to contend with its “Fraternal” smaller neighbor is unlikely to fare well against NATO, even in its current troubled state.
@Sharon W
Yup, you know why it isn’t being sent to secure our own Southern Border and how indeed the Brandon puppeteers have placed more care into securing the Polish-Ukrainian border than our own Southern one.
I am something of a pro-Ukrainian anti-Putin hardliner, but even I find this disgraceful and ridiculous.
Honestly, the silver lining I find is that it’s better those resources and spending are going here rather than to some pie in the sky, hole in the floor social spending boondoggle like most spending in Current Year has.
This is precisely the point, our country is being splayed open from stem to stern our best fighters are purged this adenoidal freak put in charge of nuclear affairs, of course our surrender to the emirate this jizdah to the sepah the revolutionary guard run the country
@charles Greetings old timer, and thanks for being with us.
The Cold War is before my time quite literally, so I mostly study it from hindsight (with all the distorting and clarifying effects that comes with) and I generally agree. Most of the particularly pointed threats were usually delivered in private, though the Soviets were quite happy to stomp on the scenery in public on occasion.
If you’re in your sixties, you were almost certainly born in the era after Stalin and probably grew up in the post-Cuban Missile Crisis era. The Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe had been settled for give or take twenty years by that point.
One of the great untold stories- and probably a major factor in how we avoided WWIII- was these fairly large scale and interconnected but distinct guerilla conflicts popping up throughout Eastern and Central Europe in the 1940s and 1950s as assorted nationalists, democrats, fascists, dissident communists, and civilians tired of getting stomped on took up arms and fought the Soviets and their puppets. Particularly fighting their intelligence “organs” like the NKVD/NKGB and its kin like the Polish UB.
Things like the East German uprising in 1953 and the Pozan and Budapest Revolutions of 1956 are some of the most well known, but they were in many ways the aberrations compared to things like the “Forest Brothers” in the Baltics or the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (itself relevant to our story given the role it played in Ukrainian nationalist mythos and the modern day legacy of Fascism in Ukraine). With modest support from the West a lot of these fought on for decades against the Soviets, bleeding and draining them in some of the nastiest and most draining conflicts you’ve not heard much of this side of Central Africa.
And this probably helped set the clock for Soviet rearmament and preparation for an offensive war back by at least a couple years, which as it turned out was enough when coupled with other things to have Stalin keel over and die- and with him the last of the Old Bolshevik leaders of the Soviet Union- and for a Khruschev who- while still totalitarian, messianic, egotistical, and interested in world revolution- proved to be much less committed to it at any cost than Stalin was.
During the sort of protracted guerilla war and consolidation during the 1940s and 1950s you did indeed see stuff like what is being reported in Ukraine or way worse happening, as the Soviet troops and particularly the “Chekists”/”Organs” tried to impose the system and Soviet hegemony by bayonet point. But around the time of the 1960s not only had most of these movements burnt out but the Cuban Missile Crisis had taken Khruschev’s taste for an apocalyptic war of revolutionary advance in a way I don’t think it would have for Stalin, meaning things generally settled down.
IIRC there was but it was generally de-emphasized (especially in reporting) and also was nowhere near this prominent.
My understanding is that it was quite hard to remove the GenSec or other effective leader of the Soviet Union, but it could be done. And what you describe is largely a product of Destalinization and the sort of “Cooling” of Soviet political leadership after the messianic, totalitarian, and high pitch of the Lenin and Stalin years, both because of Khruschev and Khruschev’s unseating by Brezhnev.
Fair, though I think in this case a lot of it is due to the 24/7 news cycle. But Putin does seem to have taken many more steps to personalize and insulate his leadership in comparison to the older, more collective style of leadership the late Soviet Gerontocracy had and even Lenin’s early Central Committee did. I do think this means Putin is unlikely to step down short of voluntary retirement or death in one cause or another.
“Your words, not those written in 2017 and cited above after the fact.” om
I did offer that opinion first. When you disputed the possibility, I remembered seeing reports questioning whether our nuclear arsenal is being maintained sufficiently. Rather than offer further opinion, I searched for and found an authoritative source. Rather than acknowledge it, you engage in irrelevancies.
neo,
“The reversal of time is in your neglecting cause and effect. CAUSE – Russia invading Ukraine – comes first.”
It’s not ‘neglect’ when no one is disputing that Russia invaded Ukraine. That is an established fact.
Biden’s $800 million is a response to Putin’s invasion, which is not in dispute either. That it furthers the conflict and may escalate it as well is obvious. Equally obvious is that a reaction to an action can lead to a reaction to the reaction, until the conflict extends far beyond its original parameters.
Case in point; Russia invades Ukraine, the West responds, Russia responds to the West, the West ‘ups the ante’, in response Russia ups the ante… where does it end? If that continues back and forth, the primary conflict becomes one between Russia and the West rather than one confined to the Ukraine.
” reprimanding me for supposed snark that isn’t even especially snarky is not a good look foryou, actually.”
You first offer offense to a contrary opinion. Then defend the offense as mild, in effect claiming my objection to be out of line, in that it makes me look bad?
I’d previously thought this type of response beneath you neo.
Geoffrey Britain:
Ever since the Ukraine War began, you’ve been repeatedly advancing many theories and explanations here that are illogical and ahistorical. This has been pointed out to you over and over again – sometimes by me, and often by others who have shown remarkable patience.
It hasn’t had much effect on your approach, and you often ignore points people make by saying that some of it is just too lengthy to bother to pay attention to.
I’ve been very patient with you as have many others (although not all). You yourself have often been snarky and condescending – sometimes only in response to the snark of others, but sometimes spontaneously.
Another thing you have done before – not just this time – has been to become outraged when I offer mild sarcasm about something you have written – as I did above with my time travel joke. I was pointing out that you often omit antecedents when making your arguments, leaving out the motive for some action or other.
You also have distorted history and geography, as has been pointed out to you. And yet you seem to consider yourself above such criticism, and adopt a holier-than-thou “oh, neo, this isn’t a good look for you” (your phrase in your earlier comment here) condescension – which I was merely echoing to you later as another way to point out that in fact it isn’t “a good look for YOU” – tossing your own phrase back at you.
I have no desire to either ban you or moderate your comments. You’ve been a valued member of this community for a long time. But you need to quit the condescending business. And I assure you that sarcasm on occasion is not “beneath me.”
Geoffrey, your game is tiresome and specious. It is particularly disingenuous to claim that because I find nothing remarkable or incorrect in the 2017 citation that your own (4/21/2021) opinion is equally valid. After the fact, claiming your yesterday apples are the same as the 2017 oranges. A tiresome Geoffrey game.