Unknown factor: the Russian public and the Russian military
Commenter “Kate” writes:
I don’t think anyone on our side of the fence knows what’s really going on in Russia, or whether public opinion there makes any difference. Some military observers are now estimating Russian military deaths so far at 15,000; I had previously seen an estimate near 10,000, and numbers of injured are much higher. Russian leadership may not care about casualties; can they hide the numbers from the families of the dead and injured?
First let’s take the question of how many Russians have died fighting this war. The western military says it’s a lot, and there was also a brief Russian report to that effect
A Pro-Kremlin tabloid on Monday reported that nearly 10,000 Russian troops have been killed in the war in Ukraine — before the publication removed the figure and claimed it had been hacked.
The Putin-friendly Komsomolskaya Pravda, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, reported that 9,861 Russian troops had died and 16,153 had been wounded in Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion on Feb. 24. It’s unclear whether the tolls were accurate.
Russia hasn’t released any figures since March 2, and even if they had there’s no way to trust their figures. So we just don’t know, but one thing that seems reasonable to conclude is that the figures were higher than expected and will get higher over time.
Russian propaganda has been prepping the Russian people for years with the idea that Greater Russia is a goal, that Ukraine is part of Russia and that it should be part of Russia (in order to rescue the Russians and good Ukrainians there from the bad Ukrainian Nazis), that NATO is trying to destroy Russia, and the like.
How many Russians believe these things? And how many will continue to believe them if and when they discover how many young Russian soldiers have already been sacrificed to this dream? Will they shrug the deaths off as in a noble and worthy cause? Will they think the deaths only prove what Nazis the Ukrainians are?
Or will they blame Putin? And if they blame Putin, will it even matter in terms of his hold on power?
I wish I had the answers, but I only have the questions and the gut feeling that Putin will keep his grip as leader of Russia.
However, I also think that comparisons to the Russian acceptance of the enormous Russian losses in World War II aren’t especially relevant. For one thing, that was a long long time ago and present Russian generations are not the same as those ancestors. For another, during World War II – at least for the phrase of it when the USSR was Germany’s enemy rather than its ally as in the beginning – Russians were defending their homeland from a truly frightening and predatory opponent. They knew without question that it was do or die, and that gives people the will to endure a lot of death and hardship.
That’s more like Ukraine’s position right now than it is like Russia’s today.
And what of the members of the Russian military themselves? If most reports are correct – and I don’t know whether they are, but I certainly think they might be – many of them are conscripts who also were not even told they were going to Ukraine to fight an actual war. They might feel betrayed and confused, which doesn’t add to a military’s fighting spirit. I’m not sure whether there’s been any actual laying down of arms by Russian military – and what is done to those who might do that, which can include being shot by those in charge. But even without outright quitting, there can be more subtle effects on the morale of the military and the vigor with which they pursue a battle. Is this part of the reason the Russian offensive isn’t going quite as smoothly as many think the Russian command expected it to go?
There’s a potential contradiction and confusion when Russian military are asked to kill so many civilians in a country they’ve been assured is populated by people who are their brothers and who will for the most part welcome them – but who are also Nazis. It’s a rather strange argument, if you think about it. And if these young military men were actually not told they were going there to a war of that nature, what then?
I suppose they can tell themselves all the dead are Nazis. I suppose the Russian fighters might be using weapons that distance them from viewing the dead and realizing what’s been going on. I suppose they can tell themselves it’s collateral damage anyway, inevitable in war. Or that the Ukrainians killed other Ukrainians for PR reasons (I’ve heard there’s Russian propaganda to that effect).
But these men are not the Russians of eighty years ago nor are they in a similar fight. Who they are I don’t know, and I don’t know what effect their perceptions have already had – and will continue to have – on the conduct and outcome of this war.
[NOTE: Some of the perception that Russian fighters feel lied to and betrayed comes from the statements given by many Russian POWs on video. I happen to think they sound sincere for the most part, but I also know that it’s a bad idea to rely on statements of prisoners of war because it’s not clear that they are made freely.]
No updates as of this morning.
https://www.understandingwar.org/
Nothing on Russian, nor Ukrainian casualties.
Note several days ago mentioned callup’s in other areas of Russia.
Which would lead one (maybe erroneously) that they need more men because of losses. And these new soldiers would not be very highly trained, leading to more losses. They are also losing a lot of high ranking officers.
Here is info on what the US is sending.
https://www.popsci.com/technology/switchblade-drones-explained/
Russians have been largely pleased with Putin’s rule to date. They are used to autocracy and corruption and he has made noises about Russia still being a great power, which pleases them. The fall of the Soviet Union resulted in an orgy of corruption, some of which was abetted by the US. It’s not clear that it would have been any better with better advisors than Jeffrey Sachs.
This invasion seems to be badly run and I expect that dissatisfaction will grow as the pain continues. There is so much propaganda from both sides that it is impossible to know what is really happening. Right now, it looks to me that the Biden regime is trying to draw out the war to hide its own ineptitude.
}}} Some military observers are now estimating Russian military deaths so far at 15,000; I had previously seen an estimate near 10,000, and numbers of injured are much higher. Russian leadership may not care about casualties; can they hide the numbers from the families of the dead and injured?
}}} However, I also think that comparisons to the Russian acceptance of the enormous Russian losses in World War II aren’t especially relevant.
I tend to disagree. I think the centuries of downtrodden peonage, combined with things such as the WWII deaths, as well as internal famine deaths thanks to Stalin, that even outnumbered the WWII deaths, has given Russians a certain degree of stoicism and fatalism that is part of their national character.
Much as strong independence and determination are, historically, at least, part of the American character (yes, the merdia, and our liberal eddimikashinal system has done its best to stomp that out), I would suspect that 10k is a number to be shrugged off.
I won’t assert that they’ll take a million deaths and pay no attention, but 10,000? Pfeh.
That, in ANY real war, is a pittance. Many major historical *battles* of the last 200 years involve a death toll greater than that.
And you can pretty much bet that the Russian merdia isn’t running a “nightly death toll” as the American merdia did here, during Iraq (notable in that it disappeared from merdia reporting after Obama was elected almost as fast as Covid has vanished from the merdia these days)
}}} Mike K: Right now, it looks to me that the Biden regime is trying to draw out the war to hide its own ineptitude.
Ohhh, YEAH. Yu betcha!
One thing that we know for sure is that Putin is a war criminal. President Biden told us so.
We also know – per the writings of SCOTUS nominee KBJ – that President Bush and Secretary Rumsfeld (now deceased) are war criminals for allowing terrorists to be interrogated is such a rough fashion that the Left thought it was torture.
George and Vlad are guilty of the same crimes!
KBJ is certain about who are the war criminals but not certain who qualifies as a woman. I only wish I would have gone to Harvard Law.
OBloody:
It’s 10k in a few weeks. The war isn’t over.
That figure, if true, is something like 2/3 of what the Russians lost in Afghanistan in something like 10 years, and the public was unhappy with that figure.
We’re not just one generation removed from WWII, but many.
And “Ukraine=Democracy!!!” Like all good democracies, Ukraine abolishes all opposition parties and sets up a total state media.
I’m not saying that what Russia has done is in any way justified, I’m just so disgusted with the Left’s pushing Ukraine as some sort of democratic paradise on earth. Of course, if I was a leftist, maybe banning all opposition parties and having a state run media is a good “democracy”.
“…to hide its own ineptitude…”
To hide something, certainly.
But NOT its ineptitude.
(That is, in the destruction sweepstakes, “Biden”‘s doing jes’ fine, thank you very much.)
In fact, it’s anything BUT ineptitude.
IOW, it would only be “ineptitude” if “he” were trying to make America great(TM), help out American citizens, improve the lives and livelihoods of his “fellow” Americans, turbo-charge the economy, improve the schools, get people hopeful about their future, truly UNIFY the country (instead of rend it in two, while calling for “unity”), IMPROVE THE TRUST…
(And that goes for the country’s allies, as well; “traditional allies”, that should be…perhaps even “former allies” at this point.)
But…uh, uh.
Nope, “he”‘s NOT doing that. INTENTIONALLY.
(In fact he’s doing anything BUT.)
And so it’s not ineptitude.
…Actually, it’s rip-roaring success.
Soooo…what it is it that “he” wants to hide?
Answer: EVERYTHING (though the Iran “deal” might be a good place to start, or rampant inflation, or the Hunter Chronicles, or the oil squeeze, or the supply chain fiasco—I mean, success—or Afghanistan, or the chaos in America’s cities, or “his” own dementia, or…all “his” lies. Well, you get the idea.).
– – – – – – – –
Related:
“As the World Watches Ukraine, Afghanistan Goes Full Taliban;
“The Taliban are using detentions, repression, censorship, and killings to tighten their grip on power.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/22/afghanistan-taliban-control-arrest-journalists-women/
WRT to Ukraine:
“It’s a s**tshow here… our own plane dropped a bomb on us’: Russian soldier describes unit being ‘torn apart’ by Ukraine’s forces and says troops are suffering from frostbite as he slams Putin’s ‘madhouse’ invasion”—
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10644471/Its-s-tshow-Russian-soldier-describes-unit-torn-apart-Ukraines-forces.html
And:
“Russian soldier ‘drives a TANK over his commanding officer to protest the huge number of losses they have suffered’, Ukrainian journalist claims”—
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10644823/Russian-soldier-drives-TANK-commanding-officer-Ukrainian-journalist-claims.html
But are these reliable reports? Who can know?
These two, however, are bombshells:
First off, this is HUGE:
“Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu vanishes ‘with heart problems’ as strains appear in his relationship with Putin over Ukraine war…”—https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10642949/Furious-Putin-begins-witch-hunt-inner-circle-growing-wary-close-allies.html
And:
“Top Putin envoy Anatoly Chubais QUITS and leaves the country ‘with no intention to return in protest over Ukraine invasion'”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10643837/Top-Putin-envoy-Anatoly-Chubais-QUITS-leaves-country-protest-Ukraine-invasion.html
Will it make any difference at all?
Or will Putin double down.
(Hey, maybe he should consult with those truly talented double, triple and quadruple downers in the Democratic Party?… Masters of the genre!)
“… not certain who qualifies as a woman…”
Which means she is not certain (or has no clue?) why “Biden” chose her as a candidate for SCOTUS. (Moreover, it appears that in the rarified planet on which she lives, only a “biologist” is qualified to determine, define, or describe what a “woman” is…. Clever!)
Next question that should be put to her:
We understand that you are simply unable to tell us what a woman is, OK, fine; but might you be able to tell us what the Constitution is?”
What do “the Russian people” think? Russia has basically no experience with democracy. They are not used to caring what “the people” think despite all the past usage of “People’s Republic” which was highly ironic.
Indeed Americans are always doing this, asking questions like “Did the Germans ‘really’ support Hitler?” or “Did the Vietnamese ‘really’ support the Viet Cong?” because we take it for granted that Americans have a say in their government. But most people, in most places, for most of human history, just keep their mouths shut and go along with whoever is in power. Because if you don’t, *really* bad things are liable to happen to you and your family.
Barry Meislin, that “top Putin envoy” should be very careful, no matter where he goes, although these days Vladimir might have a harder time sending his assassins to western countries.
physicsguy, is it the “left” which is idealizing Ukrainian democracy? I can’t keep the players straight, and there seem to be varying opinions everywhere. No, Ukraine is not a western-style democracy. (I’m not sure we are, either, any more.) Yes, it has been corrupt and probably still is. But Russia is also corrupt and has been for centuries.
The only clearly verifiable facts I see are that Russia has invaded Ukraine, is mostly stalled, and is shelling Ukrainian cities to ruins.
Judge Jackson’s answer on the question of who is a woman (“I’m not a biologist”) makes it clear that the answer is biological, but she doesn’t want to admit it for political reasons.
If you don’t think it’s weird that American media seemingly has more information on Russian military deaths than Ukrainian military deaths…maybe you need to think about it a little more.
Mike
FOAF:
Did you read my post? If you did, you would have seen this:
In other words, whether the Russian people turn on him or not it probably won’t make a difference. I don’t think the Russian people have much of a say in their government at all, and haven’t for most of their history.
I don’t think most people are as naive as you think. The questions are asked whether or not the people have all that much say; the questions don’t imply that the questioner thinks the people are in control of things.
Another thing to consider is the simple fact that there aren’t anywhere near as many young men in Russia as a percentage of the population as there were during WWII. As such, the death of 10k young men in a few weeks in 2022 is a much more painful pill to swallow for the Russian people than it was in 1941. I believe the median age of males in Russia is something like 40 these days. The demographics are just not there to support that kind of death toll for any great period of time without serious consequences.
Of course that doesn’t mean it will deter Putin from continuing… in fact it might even put a deadline on his efforts that could force him to become even more brutal as it approaches for all we know.
Something else to hide…
“US offering $1 million to report on Israeli human rights violations”—
https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/article-702100
That’s right, from the government that brought you the “January 6th INSURRECTION” replete with human rights—and Consitutional—violations….
(And THAT’s just the tip of the iceberg as far as “Biden”—that champion of “human rights”—goes….)
physicsguy:
Like all good democracies in a war for their existence, Ukraine doesn’t want enemy propaganda and parties in its country if it can help it. We abolished the Bund in WWII, for example.
It’s not all opposition parties, it’s pro-Russian parties:
That’s the corner I think Putin painted himself into. He wanted to annex Ukraine, or at the very least install a puppet regime in a rump state with the Crimea and the two eastern provinces annexed. Regardless, he wanted to demilitarize it except for a few Russian troops stationed there.
With his army performing so poorly, and the Ukrainians showing no tolerance for occupation, that is looking like a bridge too far. And that’s not even considering his economy going pear-shaped under the effects of the sanctions.
How does he climb down? That’s the question.
But perhaps that is the wrong question. Maybe how does Russia climb down is the better one. The answer is fairly simple, although perhaps difficult to execute — make Putin the fall guy and blame him for everything. Poison, bullets and/or a show trial might be their best exit ramp if things continue to go south for them.
I’m just so disgusted with the Left’s pushing Ukraine as some sort of democratic paradise on earth.
When and where have they done that?
“Ineptitude” (cont.):
“Biden Doing Everything Possible To Drive Up The Price Of Oil, Some Of It’s Illegal”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-doing-everything-possible-drive-price-oil-some-its-illegal
(To be sure, this really ought to be obvious at this point, at least the part about “driving up” oil prices…not that “Biden” is worried in the slightest about doing anything illegal, OTOH….)
MBunge:
The American military estimates both and the media reports, with obvious caveats.
The origin of the figure in the post was described as being from a Kremlin-friendly source that then deleted it and said it was hacked. So the number might or might not be true. That was all stated.
So what are you talking about?
“Ineptitude (cont.) (cont.)”
Essentially, the main thing that “Biden” MUST hide is..
…”his” rampant and far-reaching, non-stop treachery….
Related (to join in with Amnesty International and “Biden” anti-Israel slug-fest):
“UN Human Rights Council report accuses Israel of apartheid”—
https://www.timesofisrael.com/un-human-rights-council-report-accuses-israel-of-apartheid/
(Nice to know that the UN does have ample time for SOMETHING…)
On the personal and emotional level I sympathize with Ukraine.
But personal emotions are how our “leaders” manipulate us and they are nothing to base a foreign policy on.
For 30 years we have had “leaders” of both parties jerking us one way then another over humanitarian and democratic appeals for why we should spend trillions and kill thousands and all it has done is spend trillions and kill thousands for no purpose other than to strengthen our “leaders” and weaken the US.
Russia is corrupt and concerned with its near abroad and is no particular threat to me. Ukraine is corrupt and is also no threat to me.
The Dems and and the GOPe and the progs and the globalists and Soros and Schwab are all mortal and immediate threats to me and America.
Realpolitik is cold blooded but we have seen what sentimentality and nation building has gotten us so which school is truly cold blooded?
The question realpolitik demands is what is in our, America’s, interests; a sentimental, underdog Ukraine win or a Russian one? A Ukraine win strengthens our true enemies and will launch them on ever more meddling and nation building and adventurism. It also strengthens them politically at home. A Russian win damages the neocon/neolib/globalist project.
Moreover the assumption that a weakened Putin would be replaced by someone more amenable to freedom and fields of sunflowers seems ahistorical. The Shah, Chiang Kai Shek and Tsar Nicholas were all seen as expendable autocrats by many in the west only to be replaced by monsters that were and still are our sworn deadly enemies. Our leaders, even when they were semi competent and not commies, were not too great at picking winners and losers to back. Our current crop of morons demand we do the opposite of what they advocate.
The assumption or hope a Putin loss will make the region more stable is rank speculation as well. Putin losing this war and power might very well destabilize and plunge the entire region into chaos and wars with who knows what end result.
Putin is an autocrat and a ruthless one, but that is entirely insufficient for us to determine where our interests lie.
Our ruling class is my enemy. What weakens them I support. What strengthens them I oppose. And if that means supporting bad men doing bad things, that’s the essence of surviving in a world in which international sentimentality gets your country’s, and possibly your own, throat slit.
But I do I welcome a compelling argument that can convince me that a Ukraine win is in a free and prosperous United States’ interests.
.
A cogent argument, as far as it goes (leaving aside the tremendous capability of it backfiring)….
But I got news for ya: “Biden” is allied with Putin to the extent that “he” needs Putin, which sets the stage for the good old “give and take” AKA “you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours” AKA “one hand washes the other” (And so, don’t be fooled by the rhetoric; wonder, rather, about the actions, or lack thereof, “behind” the rhetoric.)
(One problem, to be sure, is that “Biden” MUST NOT let it be known that “he” needs Putin…which requires some very fancy footwork, and a compliant media/info-tech sector…)
Anyway, to get back to the “story”, there’s a rather convenient (if massive) disconnect here. “He” has to make it APPEAR as though “he” is supporting Ukraine and resisting Putin on the one hand, while not alienating Putin on the other. Indeed, it’s an optical nightmare, but “Biden” is most certainly up to the challenge.
The solution to the disconnect is that he’s got his attack dogs in the media and info-tech (and the administration) going all gaga, nuts and yellow-journalistic in support of Ukraine and against the evil Putin. Which is, of course, intended to make us believe that “Biden” “himself” supports Ukraine. (And it seems to “work”—pace Henry Reid—pretty well!)
Except it ain’t necessarly so. I.e., it doesn’t—necessarily—reflect what’s really ging on.
Case in point: “Biden” needs to pressure Israel. Why? Because it’s what “Biden” does (i.e., what “he” did in the past and what “he” will do in the future—I mean how else are you going to achieve “peace” in the Middle East except by giving the Mulahs the Bomb and forcing Israel to withdraw to the May-1967 ceasefire lines??)
And so, here in fact—and right on cue===is one of “Biden”‘s rottweillers bashing—or more precisely THREATENING—Israel for not doing more to support Ukraine’s defense against Putin. (HUH???—That’s right!)
https://www.jns.org/congressman-says-israels-lack-of-support-for-ukraine-could-determine-aid/
And the “beautiful” thing about this particular rottweiller is that he’s a Republican (well…sort of). Reminds one of that other “Biden” rottweiller—who goes by the name of Mitt Romney (well, let’s call him a rottweiller-poodle mix)—who attacked Tulsi Gabbard just a few weeks ago.
Using Republicans as “his” own private attack dogs is such a characteristically “refined” “Biden” tactic….
Anyway, with “Biden” there’s more than meets the eye. One thing you can count on: “He” IS pulling the wool over everyone’s eyes.
Brian B:
I believe you need to rethink the threat that Russia presents to the US. First of all, as Russia takes on more territory – Ukraine in particular – it acquires more sources of income and more influence. Russia also has made Europe dependent on it, and that’s worrisome and has (until recently, anyway) affected Europe’s decisions on foreign policy and trade. That and Russia’s alliances with China and other third-world countries have the goal of creating a countervailing power to the West. They’re playing for big stakes (the article is from a few weeks before the Ukraine invasion):
I don’t have time to find it now, but I believe I read that Putin has made speeches explicitly referencing his plans to replace the West on the world stage, economically and politically. Ukraine is just one step in that. It’s also a test of the West, which Putin thinks is weak (and which has been very weak, especially with Biden as US president). Putin has enormous ambitions.
Barry Meislin:
Who are you addressing?
BrianB.
BTW, I also was of the opinion that Putin was taking advantage of “Biden”‘s “weakness”.
Then the penny dropped and…I became more and more convinced that something else has to be going on here…sub rosa. That is, it’s not so much “Biden”s “weakness” (or supposed weakness), but it’s more: there’s collusion involved. But why?
…That is, why is “Biden” colluding with Putin (and China, as well—though the latter is a far more acceptable suggestion)?
But then, couldn’t one ask, “Why is “Biden” doing any of the things “he”‘s doing?
One word: sinister.
BrianB:
One more thing –
I will add that Russia has been instrumental in spreading and supporting climate change and Green propaganda in the US, in particular opposition to fracking and drilling for fossil fuels in this country:
So you might also want to rethink that business about who a Russian win benefits and who it hurts. The Russian interest is in sowing chaos and division in the US through propaganda, and handicapping our economy (especially in the energy field but also in every respect) and I think it can count some successes there.
“…Russia has been instrumental in spreading and supporting climate change and Green propaganda in the US…”
That’s funny, so has “Biden”…
(One might even claim that “Biden”‘s been more effective than Putin could ever possibly be…at this game!)
File under: “After the election, I’ll have more flexibility” (the Sequel?)
You can see YouTube videos by Niki Proshin. He lives in St Petersburg and discusses the sanctions and how they affect his life. I originally found him on TikTok but he can no longer post there. You can watch @natashasrussia videos on TikTok still. She posts infrequently now. Niki has always been non political on TikTok. Natasha has always engaged in political videos. You can scroll her past videos. She was 100% positive that Russia would not invade Ukraine. Since the invasion she posted a few videos showing the protests and arrests. Those were posted in late February. In early March she posted a video of a van with a high mounted face recognition camera. She said, “they’re gonna record all of us and then come to our homes.” Recently she has posted the effects of the war on grocery shopping. She noted the run on sugar and salt – both used as preservatives. She has an American husband. There are several Ukrainian TikTokers.
“Sinister” (cont.):
“Todd Bensman: Jihadis Infiltrate Texas”—
https://www.meforum.org/63072/todd-bensman-jihadis-infiltrate-texas
“But why?…” (heh….)
There for awhile I thought I was on an Instapundit comment section.
“There is so much propaganda from both sides that it is impossible to know what is really happening.” Mike K
Agreed.
OBloodyHell,
My impression is that the Russian national character does indeed exhibit “a certain degree of stoicism and fatalism”.
Cornhead,
The charge of being a war criminal goes back much further than Bush and Vlad. Truman’s atomic bombing qualifies him in the minds of many on the left. And many, some here would accuse Lincoln as well.
“Russia is also corrupt and has been for centuries.” Kate
I read somewhere this morning that corruption in Russia has one overiding rule. You may only steal from those below you in status.
physicsguy,
It is both the GOPe, the Left and the media that are pushing Ukraine as some sort of democratic paradise on earth.
ambisinestral,
“make Putin the fall guy and blame him for everything. Poison, bullets and/or a show trial might be their best exit ramp if things continue to go south for them.”
You do realize that if Putin is disposed, by whatever the means, all that may stand between the West’s Global Elite and world dominance will be China? Even should Putin’s replacement be as ruthless, they being as culturally protective as Putin is problematic.
“I believe I read that Putin has made speeches explicitly referencing his plans to replace the West on the world stage, economically and politically.” neo
Absent America’s societal collapse, I don’t see how that’s a viable proposition.
Geoffrey Britain:
You don’t see that Russia united with China could make that a viable proposition? You don’t see that?
The mind boggles.
The US has already partially collapsed, by the way.
You do realize that if Putin is disposed, by whatever the means, all that may stand between the West’s Global Elite and world dominance will be China?
Huh? The West’s ‘global elite’ presides over sick societies. They’ll be less and less influential.
Realpolitik is cold blooded but we have seen what sentimentality and nation building has gotten us so which school is truly cold blooded?
You want Uday and Qusay back?
I also think that comparisons to the Russian acceptance of the enormous Russian losses in World War II aren’t especially relevant.
Too true.
Most people know very little Russian history, and base what they know on WWII and Russian propaganda from WWII. (They leave out, for example, the enormous numbers of Ukrainians who sided with the Germans.)
In 1904-1905 Russia lost a silly little war with Japan. There was immediately a very serious revolution in Russia, that very nearly toppled the Tsar.
In 1917 the Russians gave up in WWI — the soldiers simply stopped fighting — and the Tsar was overthrown.
The Soviet Afghanistan war was one of the key factors in the loss of faith in the Soviet regime, which fell soon after.
The First Chechen war made it clear that ordinary Russian soldiers were not keen on dying for a fight they did not care about.
Historically Russians have a habit of reacting badly to losing wars. Even when not a democracy. They aren’t the “they’ll take any losses” types people seem to think they are.
But I do I welcome a compelling argument that can convince me that a Ukraine win is in a free and prosperous United States’ interests.
You want Russia to be able to gobble up Estonia with impunity. Why is that, other than an affection for rough trade?
Can we agree that Russia not invading, say Poland, is in the United States interest? Even if we engage in this argument on purely cold-blooded Realpolitik terms I don’t get the argument that Ukraine surrendering is a good thing.
Why is it not in the US interest for the Russian army to get chewed to pieces in Ukraine? That is a mere taste of what awaits them if they invade a NATO country where we will throw every weapon that the US/EU can afford (a lot) at them.
A problem with some of the previous comments is that the arguments ASSUME that “Biden” will act in the interests of the US.
Now, I would like to assume that as well…but I really don’t think that one can be justified in doing so, such is the situation that the country now finds itself.
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Maybe the war will have to stop if the global economy melts down?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trading-houses-will-collapse-margin-call-doom-loop-goes-global-trafigura-cfo-warns
Does that mean one must pray for the latter to occur?
(OTOH, do the markets listen to one’s prayers…either fervant or perfervid….? For that matter, will a global reset, and imperilment, shock people back into a sounder sense of reality?)
One hopes that the war will be ended for better reasons.
Nonetheless, interesting times….
File under: “Global correction”…
–I believe you need to rethink the threat that Russia presents to the US. First of all, as Russia takes on more territory – Ukraine in particular – it acquires more sources of income and more influence. —
Putin has been in power nearly 25 years and has acquired precisely one small chunk of Georgia and reacquired Crimea. He seems to be having great difficulty grabbing anymore of Ukraine, his immediate neighbor. The idea he is on some great empire building spree is contradicted by a quarter century of real world evidence and Russia’s own abilities.
–Russia also has made Europe dependent on it, and that’s worrisome and has (until recently, anyway) affected Europe’s decisions on foreign policy and trade. —
Wait, who made Europe dependent on Russia? The Europeans didn’t choose to kill their own fossil fuel and nuclear industries and start buying from Russia? The liquor store doesn’t make the alcoholic.
–That and Russia’s alliances with China and other third-world countries have the goal of creating a countervailing power to the West. They’re playing for big stakes…–
China is a far more natural enemy of Russia than we are. We have spent at least the last 25 years demonizing Russia and subverting and wooing the four countries we know it views as an indispensable buffer and a red line that cannot be crossed. We have intentionally crossed that red line over and over. Do you think that little dust up in Kazakhstan a couple of months back was any less supported by and probably instigated by us than the color revolution in Belarus, Ukraine or Georgia? There are consequences to reckless behavior and there are consequences to the naive idea other countries should view what we do with the same Rebecca of Sunnybrook farm dimples we ascribe to ourselves and our motives. We’re playing the same cynical great game everyone else does. The only difference is we couch it in noble rhetoric. Well, there is one other difference, the morons running our show manage to do every single thing that is precisely not in our country’s interest.
America’s interests lay in coaxing Russia into at best neutrality if not an alliance with us as we drove a wedge between it and China. Putin sought such an arm’s length relationship and we answered with incoherence and contradictions and ultimately hostility. Meanwhile we cozied up to an enemy ten times bigger and a hundred times more ambitious. If Russia is allied with China we have no one to thank but ourselves.
–One more thing –
I will add that Russia has been instrumental in spreading and supporting climate change and Green propaganda in the US, in particular opposition to fracking and drilling for fossil fuels in this country:–
I’ll take this argument at face value and not as the joke it seems to be, but can anything Putin has done on this front hold the tiniest of candles to our own homegrown green lunatics? I’ll begin to worry about Putin giving a few rubles to Greenpeace when our government stops giving these creeps billions and directly banning fracking on its own lands. When Biden and the unspeakably gruesome Kerry are actively doing what you say Putin is doing, but on an infinitely greater scale, who is it I should be worried about?
Estonia is a member of NATO. Ukraine is not.
I have a family member who has spent a great deal of time in A-stan and Iraq (mostly giving our money away to people who hate us). He is my go-to guy on war crimes. I asked him about the attacks on civilian areas. He said this is why it is not a good idea to hand out weapons to civilians. It creates a pretext.
Eli from Russia (she is a YouTube travel blogger living in Moscow) shares this new saying: All the pessimists are leaving or have left. Only the optimists remain.
–You want Uday and Qusay back?–
They were at least enemies of Iran, our primary enemy in the ME, unlike the Iraq we created that is slowly becoming a vassal of the ayatollahs.
How did killing tens or hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, spending trillions of dollars and getting many thousands of our own troops killed and maimed in a country that ended up booting us out and slides ever closer to Iran advance or promote American interests?
Preserving Ukrainian sovereignty is in US interest because we negotiated them into their current weak military position by promising we’d support them if threatened. We first did this to get them to surrender all their nuclear weapons. We later helped weaken their conventional defense under the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program. Russia also solemnly promised to respect Ukrainian sovereignty at these times. To show that US international commitments mean something, and that we will try to resist when Russia violates its commitments to us, we should at least look like we are trying to defend Ukraine.
Re Putin and the Russian public: After the first Gulf War our foreign policy experts assured us that because Saddam Hussein was an international pariah under sanctions the Iraqi army or people would oust him. He stayed in power right until the US Army arrived in Baghdad. Obama and Kerry told us that the Syrian dictator Assad would fall because he was an international pariah under sanctions. Assad is still around. On this record, Putin will die of old age while still in the Kremlin.
–You want Russia to be able to gobble up Estonia with impunity. Why is that, other than an affection for rough trade?–
It didn’t gobble it up prior to it joining NATO so it will not now. More importantly Putin has specifically left the Baltics out of the nations that constituted Russia’s vital national interests from the start. Were it strategically indispensable he would probably have gobbled it up prior to its entry.
He has over and over noted Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and Kazakhstan are indispensable as buffers. And we have done our best to install Western friendly and Russian hostile government in all four. What did we think would happen if we did that? We thought that would cause Putin to view our intentions benignly? He didn’t touch Georgia until we staged a color revolution. He didn’t touch Ukraine until we staged a coup and in both cases he only touched the Russian speaking and strategically vital parts of either one.
Putin is a brutal autocrat but all countries have legitimate security concerns and the harsh reality is those small states crushed between great powers will be crushed further if they don’t tread lightly and keep one foot in both camps or none in either. We have tempted Ukraine to our side and now they’re paying the price all buffer states do that choose to stop buffering.
That’s a crappy deal but it’s the cards the world has always dealt.
Vitaliy Katsenelson grew up in Russia and now lives in Colorado, where he is an investment manager. He has written a four-part essay on the Russia/Ukraine situation–highly recommended reading, especially parts 3 and 4, in which he discusses what he is hearing from friends back in Russia. Registration required.
https://contrarianedge.com/
BrianB in his litany of evils in which he claims that the US has been demonizing Russia for 25 years conviently ignores the BHO cabal and the Hillary reset. He also conviently ignores the sympathy and support extended to Vlad under GWB (prior to Crimea) when Russia was targeted by Chechen terrorists (massacre of children and massacre of adults in the theater).
The Democrats made Russia the villan to get Trump and Vlad made himself abhorrent by his assassinations abroad and by his invasions of other nations. Vlad’s actions in Grozny were a predictor.
Facts, BrianB. They aren’t hard to find.
What the Russian people want, or can do about what they want is one question.
What the real big shots want–because of what’s happening to them now and what may in the future–and what they can do about it is a separate question with a separate set of answers.
One of the bazillionaires making money the old-fashioned way may not be a nationalist, emotional about it and listening to old Russian patriotic songs to help him sleep nights.
Such generals as remain may not want to be associated with defeat–in advance by Putin or by somebody else if they really do lose–or have to quit which is not quite the same thing but bad enough.
Heck, a victory at five times the price anybody predicted and with some obvious strategic howlers in the middle can be a problem for somebody.
As to who Putin is…. He came up through the KGB which rewards practicality and not scruples. Nor morals. Nor dreams. But he’s trying for something which doesn’t seem like a practical step to….something else. As if he really believes the Greater Russia thing. It’s his dream, his goal…. Just because he says it is would in the normal sense be meaningless. Sold to the Russian people who may or may not buy it. But then what? What’s past that? For what is Greater Russia a step toward?
Saw an assessment of the Russian army by a Marne officer. Many of the troops are conscripts with one-year obligations. When I was in, it took nearly six months to get a rifleman proficient enough to go to his unit where they tell him, This is how we do it and we’re going to do it about a hundred times until you get it. If they’re that energetic in the Russian army, the guy is out just about the time he’s worth his rations. Our Army draftees had two years. IOW, Russians not particularly effective at the small-unit level.
BrianB, the latest Vlad boy and PR flack.
If this story about a Russian general is true, it’s pretty interesting:
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/russian-general-very-depressed-over-ukraine-invasion-report/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=blog-post&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=top-bar-latest&utm_term=second
It didn’t gobble it up prior to it joining NATO so it will not now.
It doesn’t seem to occur to you that Russia’s economy and the condition of its military is not fixed.
More importantly Putin has specifically left the Baltics out of the nations that constituted Russia’s vital national interests from the start.
Pity for your thesis that the Russian foreign minister has already demanded the Baltic states be expelled from NATO.
He has over and over noted Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and Kazakhstan are indispensable as buffers.
Then he’ll tell you his buffers need buffers.
And we have done our best to install Western friendly and Russian hostile government in all four.
Uh, no. Putin’s done his best to alienate the politicians and public of the Ukraine and Georgia. Your 4D chess master was outmaneuvered by Democratic Party hack Victoria Nuland.
–BrianB in his litany of evils in which he claims that the US has been demonizing Russia for 25 years conviently ignores the BHO cabal and the Hillary reset. He also conviently ignores the sympathy and support extended to Vlad under GWB (prior to Crimea) when Russia was targeted by Chechen terrorists (massacre of children and massacre of adults in the theater).–
It’s not convenient because I agree with you wholeheartedly. It has been a bipartisan effort [in the true M Stanton Evans meaning] of bad motives and incompetence and the names mentioned have been the chief architects of the mess.
Trump was the only realist and sensible one of the bunch.
–BrianB, the latest Vlad boy and PR flack.–
Putin is a dictator and a thug and I wish Russia was a functioning free state [I hesitate to even use the word democracy anymore the way the progs have weaponized it].
But there are a lot of things I wish were true but aren’t. A conservative addresses the world as it is. A prog as he wishes it were. I’m not a prog.
–It doesn’t seem to occur to you that Russia’s economy and the condition of its military is not fixed.–
How do you know what occurred to me? Russia has one of the lowest birthrates in the world and is hopelessly corrupt and dytsfunctional. The idea it will become a colossus that will run over NATO members when it can barely chew up the friendly half of Ukraine is not a serious argument.
–Pity for your thesis that the Russian foreign minister has already demanded the Baltic states be expelled from NATO.–
Countries make demands all the time because talk is cheap. What did they do about it beforehand or are doing about it now? Nothing. Not a serious argument either.
david foster:
If that story is true, I think it was irresponsible to name the man or to publicize the story at all. He will become suspect, won’t he?
With 10,000 dead, surprised Putin doesn’t get serious and step up the bombing .
For revenge
This is the bottom line for me;
The same globalist conglomeration of Dems, GOPe dopes, progs, oligarchs, Chinese stooges, MSM morons and every other hanger on of the Davosman-prog agenda who lied to us that Trump was a Putin stooge and we’re all racists and white supremacists and burning down cities is fine and don’t come out of your house or we’ll arrest you because there’s a bug going around and the seas are about to drown us all and we’ll all own nothing and like it, are the same damned liars using Ukraine as a lever to advance their Ruling Class agenda at our and America’s expense. They are buffaloing us from one crisis of their own making after another and at every turn we end up with less power, freedom and money and they end up with more.
I’m sorry for Ukraine but our interests are not theirs. Nor are they Russia’s. And, worst, they’re not DC’s or NY’s either. If our domestic Ruling Class and the international WEF-Euro set are all pushing something as hard as this, my default position is they are harming me and America, just as they always do, because they have made clear they are my and America’s implacable enemy. And so anything that harms them and their project is in my and America’s interest.
David, thanks very much for the link to Vitaliy Katsenelson.
Extraordinary writing and analysis, and very personal.
“And so anything that harms them and their project is in my and America’s interest.”
Fair enough, but—to continue along these lines—what if defending Ukraine and/or enabling it to resist and survive (which is itself IMO the right thing to do in any event) actually works AGAINST the “Biden” regime…by forcing “him” to recalibrate presumed (and presumptuous) successes and, more importantly, reveal “him” in ways “he” would desperately prefer to keep concealed thereby, the hope is, weakening “him”, perhaps irreversibly…?
I am speaking of “his” many betrayals (plural) …as well as those to come.
Geoffrey Britain
You do realize that if Putin is disposed, by whatever the means, all that may stand between the West’s Global Elite and world dominance will be China? Even should Putin’s replacement be as ruthless, they being as culturally protective as Putin is problematic.
While powerful people do try to control events, I don’t think they’re quite the 3D chess playing geniuses some people take them to be. Putin’s blundering in Ukraine is evidence of that. While the elite tries to steer things, there are social and historical currents that can demolish their best laid plans.
At any rate, my comments were limited in scope. I’m simply wondering, if Ukraine is a major disaster for Russia, how they climb down and extract themselves at the smallest cost. It strikes me Putin’s head on a platter would be that cost. Not that the people who put Putin’s head on that platter would be saints, but they could deflect criticism and soften their conditions by removing him.
As for China, I’m guessing they’re beginning to regret their bet that Putin was a strong horse. If things go really badly for Russia in Ukraine how China realigns its diplomacy is anybody’s guess.
While powerful people do try to control events, I don’t think they’re quite the 3D chess playing geniuses some people take them to be. Putin’s blundering in Ukraine is evidence of that. While the elite tries to steer things, there are social and historical currents that can demolish their best laid plans.
Putin has usually been smarter than our idiot elites also.
I’ve been skeptical on the videos coming out, but it is increasingly clear Russia is doing poorly in this war. Too slow of movement, too many burnt armored vehicles.
You do realize that if Putin is disposed, by whatever the means, all that may stand between the West’s Global Elite and world dominance will be China? Even should Putin’s replacement be as ruthless, they being as culturally protective as Putin is problematic.
Not really, but also Putin isn’t standing for anything good. He’s funded much of the global warming hysteria propaganda. He also has made statements that suggests the West’s wokeness is a significant danger to the West, and he’s happy about that. Likewise China goes with the BLM narratives.
I would not be surprised if Biden’s offer to save Salensky was intended to bring about the Ukraine’s collapse for Putin’s benefit.
Neo…”If that story is true, I think it was irresponsible to name the man or to publicize the story at all. He will become suspect, won’t he?”
Indeed. It’s hard to imagine what good the ‘American counterpart” thought would be accomplished by publicizing this story.
BrianB also conveniently ignores Vlad’s threats to nuke some of those undefined other countries. Which could include “his” country America.
Selective memory and selective realism from self identified “conservative.”
A Vlad boy anyway.
“It’s hard to imagine what good the ‘American counterpart” thought would be accomplished by publicizing this story.”
What if the story isn’t true?
Eve Marie…”What if the story isn’t true?”
Well, if the general is known to be *very* good, then it might be desirable to leak something that will get him removed from his position…or just removed. But is it likely that the US really has sufficient knowledge about the relative quality of Russian generals for us to correctly make such an assessment.
But getting back to the 25 years of Russian demonization, That would be since 1997. Lets add up the nondemonization years: WJC 3, GWB 6, BHO 8, DJT 1, LGB (Brandon) 1. That’s 19 of 25 non demonization years. Your math may vary, but it ain’t 25 by a long shot.
How do you know what occurred to me?
I’m being patient with you. If I were impatient, I’d pointed out that you’d omitted something in order to mislead.
Russia has one of the lowest birthrates
It doesn’t.
Countries make demands all the time because talk is cheap.
They’re telling you what their objects are. You’re not paying attention because to pay attention would complicate your argument.
I heard that Ukraine offered citizenship to Russian soldiers who wanted to defect. Seems like a few are actually doing it.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1584831/Ukraine-live-Vladimir-putin-russia-soldiers-defector-kyiv-mariupol-war-latest
The competency of the general makes no difference. If the story isn’t true and the general is removed, that’s one less general. If the story isn’t true and the general protests, distrust within the top ranks increases. If the story is true and he’s removed and, even better, punished, despair increases. It’s win win all the way.
Holy hell Eva, that’s some nasty-ass Realpolitik right there.
BrianB:
You seem to take Putin’s ambitions lightly. I don’t. He’s made them quite clear. Whether he is able to succeed is another story, and the jury is out on it. One thing that is in his favor is the weakness of the West and the treachery of the current administration in the US, as well as his inclination to use nuclear threats.
Of course Europe made its choices about using Russian fossil fuels, but one reason was that the Russian-funded environmental propaganda that you so discount and laugh at helped make them fearful of nuclear power, and helped our American left make the case for the US cutting back on drilling and the like. And of course we have our own propagandists on that front as well, but Russia has been a player in the information game on that subject.
US foreign policy generally has been pretty abysmal. But the US is not responsible for everything bad in the world – unless you’re Howard Zinn. We have not demonized Russia for 25 years, for starters. China and Russia have been in and out of favor with each other for a long long time, so I think you’re incorrect about the “natural enemies” claim. They are pragmatists about power and both want it, and will unite against the rest if it serves their interests. At the moment it serves their interests.
And I happen to agree with you that Trump had a far better approach to post-Cold-War foreign policy than his predecessors and certainly than his abysmal successors.
Mike Plaiss: Thanks. You made my day.
The irresponsible energy policies of (most) European nations, abetted by the energy policies of the Biden administration, have been a major factor in enabling Putin’s aggressiveness. See my post Deliberate Disempowerment:
https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/67338.html
@ Chases Eagles > ” I asked him about the attacks on civilian areas. He said this is why it is not a good idea to hand out weapons to civilians. It creates a pretext.”
“Show me the goal and I’ll show you the pretext” works as well as Berea’s original maxim.
I’d just as soon have the guns.
“we take it for granted that Americans have a say in their government. But most people, in most places, for most of human history, just keep their mouths shut and go along with whoever is in power”
I would have agreed with this up until about 2 years ago. I won’t explicitly argue against but I’ve certainly lost confidence due to Covid.
@ Mike Plaiss – I also think Eva Marie wins the Realpolitik sweepstakes today.
“Win-win” indeed!
@ EM – thanks for passing on the first-hand reports.
Sometimes, we get so bogged down in the pundit-wars, we forget the people at ground zero have opinions too.
“There’s a lot in the statement worth reading and digesting, but here’s my rough executive summary: Russia and China are throwing in their lot in a gesture of cooperation that exceeds even Stalin’s partnership with Mao”
Of course, it is possible this would have happened anyway. But it seems to me that US “policy” has pushed this harder and farther than could conceivably have happened on its own.
A horrible “self own”. Russia should have been reassured and brought into the Western alliance.
@ Shirehome > “There for awhile I thought I was on an Instapundit comment section.”
Indeed.
However, we are much more civil even in our disagreements.
The War of Russian Aggression in Ukraine (does it have a short name yet?) seems to be bringing out a lot of varied and passionate controversy, and observations from people I haven’t “met” until now.
Which is good – variety is essential to productive discourse.
It would be helpful to those of us following particular discussions from the side-lines to have at the top of a comment the name of the person to whom it is addressed (some of us already do that, but many do not).
The quotations are useful, but in these very long, sometimes convoluted threads, finding the originator can sometimes be challenging (CTRL-F with a keyword helps), so the name in addition to the quote will bring the prior comment to mind sooner.
Especially if that comment is very long, because I don’t always remember the details and can’t identify the point under discussion right away.
Not that I mind long comments, as a general rule.
** cough cough **
” After the first Gulf War our foreign policy experts assured us that because Saddam Hussein was an international pariah under sanctions the Iraqi army or people would oust him. He stayed in power right until the US Army arrived in Baghdad. Obama and Kerry told us that the Syrian dictator Assad would fall because he was an international pariah under sanctions. Assad is still around. On this record, Putin will die of old age while still in the Kremlin.”
Sanctions hurt the “little people” in the target nation as was nicely demonstrated above.
This set of sanctions will hurt the powerless all over the world because of the damage done to agriculture and to the global economy.
I was under the impression that the majority of the attacking troops at the front for the Soviets when they were driving the Germans back were not ethnic Russians, but rather from other parts of the USSR. That Stalin considered these people expendable and relentlessly pressed the attack without regard for casualties. And that this explains why the casualty numbers for the USSR in the war are so high.
I don’t have a citation for this. I’m a huge fan of WWII documentaries and books. I don’t know which might be the source, but I am certain that I have come across this information multiple times.
I’m sure the ethnic Russian losses during the early blitz by the Germans were awful. As were those defending Stalingrad. But when the Soviets started the long drive back to Berlin, the tip of the spear was generally not Russian. Attacking in the manner that the Soviets did just chews up troops. (Not as bad as the Chinese attacks in Korea which sometimes consisted of relentless waves of men armed only with sharpened sticks.)
Some are slow learners it appears.
Russia has no interest in joining the West, be it the more conservative Eastern Europeans or the predominant progressive Western European versions. Vlad has made it clear that he wants to revive the Russian Empire of old. You remember the Tsars and serfs? 400+ plus years of not becoming more western seems to be a model for Russia (not even counting that abomination, the USSR). So spare the ahistorical fancy of Russia wanting to come towards the West.
I think that Ike said something in a book about Marshall Zhukov admitting to him that they would attack across a minefield as if there were no mines.
Little people are soldiers. Little people die in wars started by the Big Men. Sometimes little people decide to willingly inflict genocide on other groups of little people (see Rwanda) for little reasons. The world is complicated like that. Sometimes sanctions are attempted to persuade the Big Man to stop killing little people. Does it work? Seldom, it seems.
Talk to the Uighurs or Tibetans about being little.
stan:
Well, here’s what Wiki has to say about it:
@ Barry > “But are these reliable reports? Who can know?”
With all due respect to The Daily Mail, either or both of those reports could be Ukrainian psy-ops.
The first because it purports to relay an intercepted audio call without independent verification (Zelenskyy’s Party, to say the least, has good friends in the entertainment industry).
The second shows what look like authentic pictures of the wounded Russian officer, but the way in which he was hurt was provided only by the Ukrainians.
Whether true, partly true, or totally fake news, they are a win-win for Ukraine, as Eva Marie might say.
@ Barry > The Guardian adds some info I didn’t see in the Daily Mail.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/23/putin-adviser-anatoly-chubais-quits-leaves-russia-invasion-ukraine
John Kerry hardest hit.
–BrianB also conveniently ignores Vlad’s threats to nuke some of those undefined other countries. Which could include “his” country America.
Selective memory and selective realism from self identified “conservative.”
A Vlad boy anyway.–
So we reduce the risk of being nuked by giving Putin’s adversary weapons? That’s curious logic. But then you seem to ascribe to the policy that logical fallacies and ad hominems are easier to jot down than thinking critically or carefully.
Just as an aside I spent six years sitting on SAC alert pads targeted by Soviet nukes when Vlad was a KGB boy and my planes would have vaporized Vlad and his kin. How did you resist Vlad and the Russkies?
Connecting some dots on my coloring pages.
May or may not have any connection in the real world.
(1) Climate and energy oligarch leaves Russia in a hurry, objects to war on Ukraine.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10643837/Top-Putin-envoy-Anatoly-Chubais-QUITS-leaves-country-protest-Ukraine-invasion.html
[missed that the first time, so I referenced The Guardian also]
(2) Energy traders panicking over loss of liquidity (h/t Barry Meislin & Zerohedge); observation of interest:
(3) Environmental groups/activist/lobbyists know their priorities.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy-environment/biden-urged-to-unleash-defense-production-act-to-expand-green-energy-rather-than-oil-production?utm_campaign=article_rail&utm_source=internal&utm_medium=article_rail
(4) George Soros knows about climate change too: he’s against it, to the tune of billions of other peoples’ money.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/financing-the-fight-against-climate-change-2009-12
(5) Putin, despite making some recent conciliatory moves toward the Climatistas, is not a true believer – and doesn’t act like one, in supplying vast amounts of the demonized fossil fuels for cold cash.
https://www.dw.com/en/russias-vladimir-putin-doubts-man-made-climate-change-backs-trump/a-51736903
(Deutsche Welle, to put the last paragraph in context; their about us page “Germany’s international broadcaster and one of the most successful and relevant international media outlets”)
(6) George Soros demands we stop Russia in Ukraine, and asserted the same in an op-ed as well as on Twitter, per this post.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/03/george-soros-united-states-european-union-must-remove-putin-xi-power-can-destroy-civilization/
Is anyone else seeing a pattern here?
However, I still support Ukraine against Russia, even if that puts me on the same side as Soros this time around.
Will have to channel Churchill on this one, even though his pacts with Stalin had horrible outcomes in the end.
“If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.”
Of course, all three of them are chumming it up in the Nether Regions today.
No idea where Sir Winston ended up.
… but I hope for the best for the PM who saved the Western world — for whatever that seems to be worth these days.
}}} It’s 10k in a few weeks. The war isn’t over.
That figure, if true, is something like 2/3 of what the Russians lost in Afghanistan in something like 10 years, and the public was unhappy with that figure.
We’re not just one generation removed from WWII, but many.
Agreed, but:
1 — they have that much more fatalist attitude than we do
2 — again, no merdia going “Death toll !! Get yer Today’s DEATH TOLL!!” on an endless loop.
3 — addressing your observation, yes, “in a few weeks”
To provide contrast — some Americans-killed-only examples:
1 — Bellau Wood (WWI) — 1,811
2 — Antietam — 2,100
3 — Anzio — 7,000
By comparison, also, the battle of Stalingrad averaged 3000 a day for 160 days.
Would there be grumbing? I’m sure.
Or contrast to WWI Russia, part of which caused the Russian revolution —
1,700,000 total, or about 1230 a day — but that went on for YEARS, not a couple weeks.
I’m not saying this cannot become a problem, I’m saying that Putin is not dealing with a merdia which is out to tear him down at all costs. Putin is dealing with a much more fatalistic and accepting people with regards to bad government, including bad military decisions.
So, No, I don’t think that 10k deaths in a few weeks is going to matter that much to Putin’s standing. I would say this failure could go on for as much as six months before he would need to worry much about it on the home front. Whether the Ukraine can hold out that long is an interesting question.
And yes, the Ukraine could easily become another Afghanistan, with constant violence — especially with plenty of outside help from other states. It could be their Iraq, much as Afghanistan was their Vietnam.
Modern weapons and guerrilla tactics make pacifying a conquered state a lot harder than it was 3 centuries ago.
BrianB:
Curious logic indeed, for manpads, anti-tank missiles, small arms are justification for a Vlad boy to nuke you and I, and anyone else.
Curious logic two, if you aren’t a veteran shut up. I only worked at Hanford during the early 1980s when we were still making plutonium for our weapons. I’m pretty sure Vlad’s boys had multiple devices assigned to my workplace and the town I lived in. I’m assuming he still does. We are no longer making plutonioum, but all those (177) tanks with radioactive waste would add some extra magic (contamination) to the fallout for you. I’ll just be mist in those clouds.
Any more reasons to roll over for your man Vlad?
BrianB:
And just like that Vlad’s grand plan strengthens NATO, a genius, your man.
https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/03/23/nato-increases-assistance-to-ukraine-and-troop-presence-in-eastern-europe-hints-that-permanent-basing-may-be-on-the-table-n539931
The Wiki article doesn’t contradict (necessarily) the point about who led the counterattacks. We simply don’t know at what point in the war casualties were suffered by whom.
The original point was about the willingness of the Russian people to tolerate high casualties. History might be deemed to show that there are differences in their performance militarily and their morale depending on whether the action is defensive or offensive. Defense of the motherland isn’t the same as attacks beyond the motherland.
As an intellectual exercise, imagine the differences in attitudes about military action (and differences due to offense vs. defense) among some regions and ethnic backgrounds in the USA. Political science types of the Kevin Phillips variety have pointed that these differences in attitudes have had enormous impacts on voting behavior. E.g. compare the Scandinavians in the upper midwest to the Jacksonian Scotch-Irish in Appalachia and the South. Difference!
BTW — differences in attitudes about war among American groups provides an interesting angle in understanding the American Revolution. The division between loyalists and revolutionists often fell along religious lines. Anglicans and catholics were far more likely to remain loyal to the crown. Protestants favored independence. One British officer once complained that the war was the fault of the damn Presbyterians (especially in the South where the war was more akin to a civil war fought almost entirely by Americans). In fact, all but one of Washington’s colonels at Yorktown was a Presbyterian. Note the Scotch-Irish foundations of the Presbyterians in America. And their fundamentalist similarities to the Puritans in New England versus the establishment Anglicans.
Ethnicity and religion can help us understand a lot about attitudes involving war, foreign policy and domestic voting preferences.
I’m not convinced that ethnic Russians have a history which shows that they are relatively uncaring about high casualties in offensive wars beyond the motherland.
One more note — attitudes can apparently last for centuries. I live in East Tenn. When I visited King’s Mountain battlefield and read of the reaction of the Over Mountain Men to Tarleton’s threat it was very easy to imagine that the people in East TN would think and react the same way nearly a quarter of a century later. Tarleton apparently had no idea who he was poking with his stick.
oops. quarter of a millennium
I think our experience of wars since the end of WWII is revealing. We have fought wars, mostly of assistance to nations resisting Communism or Islamic terrorism. In all cases, even though we had overwhelming military advantages, the native citizens fought hard against us. Even though we were on high moral ground, morale sometimes suffered – especially in Korea and Vietnam. (I know less about morale in Iraq and Afghanistan.) Because we mostly played by the rules of war, usually tying our military’s hands, the effect was to draw out the wars into unwinnable quagmires.
Putin is not observing any rules of war, attacking civilians and civilian targets with gusto. His plan now seems to be to break the will of the people. Pound them until they beg for peace – on his terms of course. He is, however, creating a new hatred for Russians among the Ukrainians. Any occupation of the Ukraine will undoubtedly be fraught with guerrilla warfare and unrest. Additionally, Putin has managed to unite NATO as they have not been since the end of the Cold War. To add to his troubles, most of the nations (except for the usual dictatorships) are repulsed by what he’s doing. Russia will be a pariah nation for quite some time.
The UN was set up to try to stop the ancient practice of nations invading one another. Good intentions, but not much ability to enforce the rules of the game. Good intentions meet reality. 🙁