How’s Putin’s war going?
First, a general caveat: we have the fog of war, so there’s no reason to trust any reports. But still, there’s a general drift, and it may be correct.
The general drift is that Putin is surprised that the Ukrainians are putting up quite a battle. My personal opinion – based on little more than what I’ve observed of Putin and what I read in the newspaper – is that he expected one of two things: either the Ukrainians really would welcome Russia with open arms, or that the leaders of Ukraine would flee and general panic would ensue among the public, leading to widespread surrenders on the part of the Ukrainian military. He probably pegged Zelenskyy for a coward and a fool, and it never occurred to him that Zelenskyy would demonstrate personal courage.
Putin thinks he’s the only man in the room.
There are so many news articles about the Ukraine invasion that I’m sure you can find your own, but here are some to read with excerpts from a few. First we have a reported strike on a Russian airbase. Then we have this brilliant diplomatic move by the Biden administration in the lead-up to the war – appealing to China for help, with China promptly betraying the extremely misplaced trust.
Now that Ukraine has shown some resolve to fight, and the reality of the situation has set in for Europe, other countries who feel threatened by Putin are deciding they’d rather fight him now in Ukraine than on their own soil some day. And so some help in terms of armaments are going to be coming Ukraine’s way:
Former Soviet Union satellite state Slovakia — as part of now-defunct Czechoslovakia — is urgently sending millions of dollars worth of aircraft fuel and artillery ammunition to embattled Ukraine…
…The initial shipment includes 12,000 rounds of 120-millimeter caliber ammunition, 10 million liters (2.64 million US gallons) of diesel fuel, and 2.4 million liters of aircraft fuel.
Germany on Saturday reversed a historic policy of never sending weapons to conflict zones, saying the Russian invasion of Ukraine was an epochal moment that imperiled the entire post-World War II order across Europe…
From its own stockpile, the German government will send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft defense systems to Ukraine. The government has also authorized the Netherlands to send Ukraine 400 rocket-propelled grenade launchers and told Estonia it ship over send nine howitzers.
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine marks a turning point,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in a statement. “It threatens our entire post-war order…
Germany’s shift comes as numerous Western allies are mobilizing to send Ukraine more guns, ammunition and even anti-aircraft defense systems as Russian forces bear down on major Ukrainian cities.
The reversal could mean a rapid increase in European military assistance for Ukraine…
Estonia, in particular, had said it wanted to send old howitzers but was prevented from doing so because Germany was withholding its approval. Estonia bought the weapons from Finland, which gave its sign-off, but Germany also has to OK the transfer because it originally sold the howitzers to Finland…
Poland has started sending ammunition by land, while Estonia and Latvia on Friday said they were beginning to truck fuel, Javelin anti-armor weapons and medical supplies to the Ukraine border for hand-off to Ukrainian forces. Elsewhere, the Czech Republic said it would send guns and ammunition, and Slovakia said it would send ammunition, diesel and kerosene.
On Saturday, more countries started chipping in.
The Netherlands said it will send 200 Stinger anti-aircraft defense systems to Ukraine — often the top-requested type of military aid among Ukrainian soldiers and officials (apart from Western powers sending their own planes and forces to fight with Ukraine). And Belgium announced it would supply Ukraine with 2,000 machine guns and 3,800 tonnes of fuel.
Across the Atlantic, the United States on Saturday also upped its ongoing military assistance to Ukraine, authorizing up to $350 million to help bolster Ukraine’s defenses, funding that will include “further lethal defensive assistance.”
In addition to its stance on weapons shipments, Germany has also taken flack from some allies for its opposition to barring Russia from the SWIFT international payment system, which European countries notably use to buy energy from Russia. While there was some initial resistance across the EU to such a ban, the opposition has rapidly dwindled following the invasion and amid pressure from Ukraine. EU countries like Poland are now publicly leaning on Germany to follow suit.
All of that represents a real sea-change, and must be giving the Ukrainians a boost of anticipatory energy, as well as angering Putin (and making him even more paranoid about Europe and NATO than he already is, which is a lot).
Zelenskyy recently issued this appeal to Europe, describing the war as one in which Europe itself is threatened. They have memories of the Cold War, which wasn’t that long ago:
Neil Oliver has some trenchant observations about the West’s responsibility for Putin’s war: “I’ll be honest. I don’t know what’s happening in Ukraine. I don’t understand it either. I ignore most of the mainstream media because I don’t trust it. . . . What I do know is that truth is rarer than gold, and therefore harder to find. I also know that whatever Vladimir Putin is up to in Ukraine, the West must accept responsibility for a share of the blame for what is now being suffered and endured by ordinary people there. . . .
Here’s the thing: what we have had in the West, some parts of the West at least, is even rarer than truth and gold. We have had freedom – freedom as individuals to go about our lives without undue fear of the State. . . . I still think liberal democracy, in theory at least, offers the best chance of life for the most people – but is that even what we have here in the West anymore? During the past two years I’ve watched leaders all over Europe, in Australia and New Zealand, in Canada, dropping the masks of liberal democracy and looking, for all the world, like the authoritarians we were taught to despise elsewhere. I’ve witnessed the advent, all over the so-called liberal west, of all manner of surveillance systems, the coming of digital IDs in all but name, the censoring of news and free speech, laws brought in by stealth to silence dissent, the routine use of propaganda and fear tactics by government, the implementation of mandates for medical procedures . . . .
I do know this has happened because here in the West we have stood fiddling while Rome burns. We have watched the erosion of our freedom. We have watched while the very idea of liberal democracy is hollowed out, filleted, to leave behind nothing but an empty shell. People like Putin – and Trudeau and Ardern and Macron – watch what others get away with, what works in the furthering of nefarious ends – and act accordingly. Putin is in part our fault, just as Trudeau and Macron are our fault. We watch Ukraine and Russia. But at the same time we should watch what our leaders are up to here in the West.”
https://www.gbnews.uk/gb-views/neil-oliver-we-watch-ukraine-and-russia-but-at-the-same-time-we-should-watch-what-our-leaders-are-up-to-here-in-the-west/235533
I believe Putin expected Ukraine to be crushed like an egg. But, it seems the Ukrainians have punched back. European nations sending assistance to Ukraine might send this bully-boy over the edge.
neo,
Your personal opinion jibes with mine. I think he expected some Ukranians’ to greet the troops as liberators, especially in the Donbas region, AND he expected Zelensky to leave.
I am very confused by the Russian military response to the facts on the ground. The Russians could be inflicting massive damage, even from afar, yet they don’t appear to be waging war anywhere near at the level they are capable of. I assumed this was because Putin wanted to preserve as much infrastructure as possible so the Ukraine remains relatively intact in the aftermath. But the Ukrainians have demonstrated cohesion and resolve, and, as neo points out, Zelensky is demonstrating strong leadership.
This new situation has me much more nervous for the future. I don’t see Putin backing down without some scenario where he can claim to have won. Won something. I think the best case scenario given the current situation is the Russians accept Zelensky’s offer to talk and both sides appear to reach some agreement from a position of strength and Russia ceases the occupation. I think that’s a longshot, but the longer this continues the more risk there is to Ukraine and other, European countries.
Richard Fernandez’s latest article on Vlad’s cluster F (IMO)
https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2022/02/26/putins-failure-n1562126
Vlad has now assured that every nation bordering Russia will be viewing it as a threat until Vlad is put in a box (hat tip Hubert).
PA Cat:
That Oliver quote seems very disconnected. The west’s faults – which are large – are the west’s faults. But that didn’t cause Putin to be who he is or do what he did, which has more to do with his view of Russia’s destiny than anything else.
If all Oliver is saying is that the west set a bad example for Putin – well, it certainly did. But I don’t see that as such a big deal in his motives.
It is a bit early to tell momentum. Ukrainians are certainly not rolling over and good on them for realizing what is at stake. But Russia has much of the Ukraine surrounded and if Russia can hamper food and water supplies, the zeal of Ukrainian’s will subside.
It is heartening to see other former Soviet satellites realize the stakes and refuse to support Putin. They could disrupt Russian supply chains.
“the German government will send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft defense systems to Ukraine.
Poland, Javelin anti-armor weapons…
The Netherlands said it will send 200 Stinger anti-aircraft defense systems to Ukraine”
That 1000+ anti-tank weapons will be a severe threat to Russia’s tanks, which render land superiority. The 700 Stinger anti-aircraft defense systems greatly threaten Russia’s air superiority.
As strictly a militarily response, that makes sense. However, the long term strategic consequences of that should give pause.
Loss of land and air superiority will result in the war devolving into urban infantry battles and, the war in Ukraine may well turn into a quagmire for Putin.
Moreover, a defeat for Putin will make it a certainty that the Ukraine then becomes a NATO member. No way the West will accept a demilitarized, neutral Ukrainian buffer state in the aftermath.
Which will put NATO right on Russia’s doorstep. Russia will then have literally bare minutes to respond to the possibility of a nuclear cruise missile attack. It doesn’t matter whether NATO ever has that intention. In the face of NATO’s long, steady and consistent enlargement ever eastward, the famous Russian paranoia will ensure that they expect an attack to then be a real possibility… So they are likely to feel that they have no choice but to have their fingers on a nuclear hair trigger.
Deterrence works both ways, put an enemy at a big disadvantage and you create a sense of desperation. What was unthinkable becomes conceivable because if they’re going to die… so are we.
Just the appearance of what may be an attack will trigger a response because since cruise missiles fly at “nap of the earth” as much below radar as possible, they’re harder to detect. So there’s real uncertainty and given what’s at risk, the Russian’s can’t afford to wait and make certain that they’re actually under attack.
Oops.
But cheer up, what better way to reduce climate change than a nuclear war? Certain to reduce carbon emissions and a tried and true means of reducing the world’s population.
Well, at least in the Northern Hemisphere with China then in the catbird seat.
That entire Neil Oliver monologue is excellent and comes close to matching my thoughts entirely. He is not absolving Putin but also pointing out that our own leaders have lost a whole lot of the moral authority to be lecturing anybody and why should we believe anything they say or recommend at this time when they have shown that they don’t have out best interests at heart but we are to believe they are acting altruistically or wisely with regards to Ukraine.
Griffin:
Most – not all, but most – of our leaders have almost no moral authority. But even without moral authority, one can still be correct about certain things one says. I also don’t see the connection between our lack of moral authority and Putin’s aggressiveness, except that he sees us as weak both in our leaders and in our culture, and therefore more ripe for the picking than before.
I just don’t see that Oliver is saying something profound or unusual or that he even connects the dots very well. As I’ve said before, Putin has long had Russian empire dreams, and he’s now trying to play them out because he perceives the west as weak but still armed. I think most people on the right are well aware of that.
Geoffrey Britain:
The situation is indeed very dangerous. But it’s dangerous no matter what Europe does. Fail to defend Ukraine and Putin is emboldened to gobble more. Defend Ukraine and Putin gets more paranoid.
Putin has been paranoid for a long, long time.
I think the hope is that perhaps the Russians themselves will turn on him in some way and someone better will end up in charge. I have no idea whether that’s possible, but I tend to doubt it.
neo,
Yes, but without moral authority it is hard to get a large portion of the populace to follow or even support your proposals. That has nothing to do with Putin or Xi or any other despotic leader but is about our piss poor brand of elites.
Why should anybody support policies that may harm them financially, here, in our country after the debacles of Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.?
Again not about Putin or whether our leaders are even correct about the current situation it is about a lack of trust that anybody that has been paying attention for the last 20-30 years should have.
Griffin:
Yes, and I’ve certainly written as much many times on this blog.
But I thought we were specifically talking about the influence on Putin’s attach on Ukraine.
I’ve noticed that the Tucker Carlson style why-should-I-care-about-Ukraine posters have gone silent. Tucker himself, after weeks of “we have no significant interest in Ukraine” has suddenly switched to calling it a disaster for the Biden admin. But that didn’t keep him from the juvenile taunt of why isn’t Liz Cheney personally fighting in Ukraine.
jvermeer:
I think that Carlson is unlikely to ever admit he was wrong about this. He’s had a consistently Buchananite foreign policy stance for many years.
Putin has been paranoid for a long, long time.
Is there corroboration for this based on observation of his person?
Carlson admitted he was wrong the first minute of his show the night after the invasion but hasn’t changed his opinion that our involvement should be limited because the more involved we are with troops and equipment in the region the better chance we will be inadvertently dragged into something far larger.
Neil Oliver has some trenchant observations about the West’s responsibility for Putin’s war: “I’ll be honest. I don’t know what’s happening in Ukraine. I don’t understand it either. I ignore most of the mainstream media because I don’t trust it. . . . What I do know is that truth is rarer than gold, and therefore harder to find. I also know that whatever Vladimir Putin is up to in Ukraine, the West must accept responsibility for a share of the blame for what is now being suffered and endured by ordinary people there.
This is a nonsense statement.
neo,
Well I was referring to Oliver’s commentary and he doesn’t have anything remotely positive to say about Putin but instead focused on what so many of these supposed liberal democracies have been doing the last few years while Putin and Xi watch.
Art Deco,
Did you read Oliver’s commentary at the link or just go by PA Cat’s chopped up version? He expounds on that point right after PA Cat cut it off. Disagree if you like in your black/white, nonsense/Art Deco truth world but there was more to it than that.
Wow. Richard Fernandez is flat titling the Ukraine war as “Putin’s Failure”:
________________________________________
There is nothing else the Ukrainian winter war of 2022 resembles so much as a gigantic throw of the dice, so preposterous given the available forces that many, myself included, did not believe any rational man could undertake it. But perhaps Putin is not the ten foot colossus the media makes him out to be as much as an aging “man of force” presiding over an economically and demographically dwindling ex-Soviet haunted empire. In that he resembles another dictator, who the media likes to compare everyone to, that in dire straits launched a similar failed gamble in the Ardennes in 1944.
The crisis in Ukraine, while not over, is likely to evolve into a crisis in Russia. We shall soon see who is more to be feared: a Putin in Kyiv or a Putin raging in the bunker.
https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2022/02/26/putins-failure-n1562126
________________________________________
om got to Fernandez first, but I’ll leave my commment up for the quote.
Geoffrey drones on about Vlad’s fears. Yeltsin and Gorbachiv didn’t seem nearly so scared of the NATO alliance, but “my borders Vlad” who doesn’t respect borders is our fault? NATO, an alliance, slow to act, reliant for much of its power by a lately unreliable Brandon junta, is even more of a threat to Roosia than the old NATO?
Geoffrey has his special thing 180 degrees out of whack. How embarrassed he must feel. Vlad’s attack on the Ukraine, is most likely because Brandon is so addled, weak, and compromised that
Vlad expected no effective NATO reaction would occur.
A once in a lifetime opportunity for Vlad to steal more real estate.
Unfortunately for Vlad, his enemy (Ukraine) had a say and his plan went a’gley. For now it seems. And NATO is resupplying Ukraine with ordnance and fuel. Geoffrey most likely is shouting at the clouds “NATO STOP!”
But Geoffrey is now worried that if Vlad’s Ukraine plan fails he will be even more dangerous because his neighbors now trust him even less. I guess for Geoffrey to feel secure Europe must give Vlad whatever he wants.
Vlad’s got him by the short hairs.
Geoffrey is bringing back the Nuclear Freeze fear of the 1980’s. Cruise missiles do indeed fly nap of the earth but are slow. Wonder why Roosia, the CCP, and the USA are interested in Hypersonic delivery systems? Deterence? Is that the word? Time for the west to give up on that thing called “National Defense.” Vlad, Xi, Z, and Geoffrey don’t approve. Too risky.
The word for Tucker is “Isolationist”.
See the Richard Fernandez article in PjMedia.
Some of you folks need to exercise some skepticism of the media that has verifiably falsified “news” for the last 5 years.
Russia, since the fall of the USSR it seems to me, has had a hazing problem within its military. One of the ways they have tried to deal with this is to reduce the length of service. Conscripts now only have to serve one year. Can any person really learn much in one year to be battle ready?
So, I do wonder, especially since the MSM gets things so wrong (sometimes on purpose, other times due to not doing their jobs well), if the reports of Russian troops being slowed down on their advance into the Ukraine are due to actual resistance from the Ukrainians; or is it also due to Russia’s military being mainly conscripts who only have to serve for one year and just aren’t battle ready (and having been hazed really don’t care what their commandeers tell them). Or most likely a combination of the two (and other factors)
But, due to “the fog of war” we won’t really know for quite some time.
Oh, and Ukraine’s President is coming across as a not-gonna-take-it kind of guy.
Bob,
The media has been ‘massaging’ the news since at least Walter Cronkite’s biased reportage on the Tet Offensive, when he characterized a clear victory as at best a stalemate.
I dont remember the reportage on the Korean War but since the Vietnam war the media has swung ever further leftward.
om,
Neither Yeltsin or Gorbachev faced a NATO alliance now advanced one step from Russia’s border and, the breakup of the Soviet Union forced them to accept the US assurance that NATO would not advance one inch closer to Russia’s border.
I’ve never suggested that Putin respected borders, just that NATO’s behavior indicates that they have no problem with encircling and placing NATO upon Russia’s border, a clear national security concern for Russia.
I assure you that I don’t feel the least bit embarrassed. We all make mistakes in judgement… even you. The difference between us is that I hope I’m wrong and have promptly admitted to being wripong multiple times. While you apparently can’t even stand to acknowledge the possibility that you could be… that most terrible of fates; in the wrong… apparently about anything. Tell us, have you ever on this blog admitted to having been wrong? Ever refrained from mockery of those with whom you disagree?
It’s not reprisal I fear but widespread consequence for innocents brought about by fools.
Nor have I ever suggested that the West give Putin whatever he wants. I have suggested that accomodating Putin’s conditions on the Ukraine remaining a neutral buffer state and that the removal of offensive weapons systems from closer NATO member states is at least worth serious consideration. Especially as they can be restored if Putin turns out to be lying.
If NATO is so peaceful and offensive weapons systems remain in Germany, France and England… why is accomodating Russia so intolerable for the West?
“Cruise missiles do indeed fly nap of the earth but are slow.”
“Modern cruise missiles are capable of travelling at supersonic, high subsonic or hypersonic speeds, are self-navigating, and are able to fly on a non-ballistic, extremely low-altitude trajectory.”
The Air-Sol Moyenne Portée (ASMP; medium-range air to surface missile) is a French nuclear air-launched cruise missile. Its maximum speed is listed as Mach 3 or 2250 MPH.
The distance from the Russia-Ukraine border to Moscow is 304.47 miles.
At Mach 3, an Air-Sol nuclear missile launched close to Russia’s border, flying nap of the earth, would reach Moscow in 13 minutes.
Geoffrey:
Do you still beat your harp seal pup? Is much the same as asking if I’ve ev4er been wrong. I’m wrong often Geoffrey. I was wrong about Trump in 2016 and I’ve owened that mistake here. Do you ever …., Have you ever ,,,, Do you always…. Get the drift of your type of questioning?
I call BS on your definition of “modern cruise missiles that range from subsonic to hypersonic. Deployed NATO systems Geoffrey. France isn’t NATO Geoffrey.
But to the nub that you won’t accept. It isn’t Vlad’s business to tell any other nation what they choose to do in their own territory. You aren’t stupid, just stubborn. Vilnius to Moscow <500 miles when will Vlad demand that they paint their cheeks red, dye their hair green, and only fart towards Sweden?
As regards giving Vlad whatever he wants. You just propose giving him authority over national security decisions of NATO countries? That of course Geoffrey isn't everything, it's just an extremely important thing. You aren't stupid, but that essentially makes them a vassal to Vlad. National sovereignty. Ready to give away someone else's autonomy for your comfort. Appeasement is a word for your approach.
You are not stupid, nor ignorant, but stubborn, and willfully blind to Vlad.
Geoffrey Britain:
It appears you believe that Russia should be able to dictate what countries NATO can accept as members and what countries they cannot. Why not just make Russia head of NATO while you’re at it? I think it would make Putin feel more secure.
Those cheeky Ukrainian bastards! 🙂
“Kremlin website is DOWN: Russian state websites including media watchdog crash and TV channels ‘are hacked to broadcast Ukrainian songs'”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10554917/Kremlin-website-DOWN.html
Geoffrey:
Slightly OT but not far OT consider that Roosia has been funding the environmental movement NGOs (aka water melons, green on the outside red on the inside) to kill fracking for natural gas in Europe and the USA to keep Europe dependent on GASPROM.
But, but. but. NATO.
Frac sand.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/02/putins-best-friend-in-the-west-environmentalists.php
I would think the point is that if NATO is offering—or offering to offer?—NATO membership to a country, it should be prepared to defend that country in the interim period (instead of insisting that that country is NOT YET a NATO country).
IOW, not leave that country dangling in a very exposed limbo.
(OTOH, one might claim that NATO already failed a much clearer test in Georgia.)
To be sure, here’s “Biden”‘s latest—-VALIANT—offer of assistance to Ukraine
“…Biden Admin Offer to Evacuate Kyiv…”—
https://legalinsurrection.com/2022/02/zelenskyy-rejects-biden-admin-offer-to-evacuate-kyiv-i-need-ammunition-not-a-ride/
The Air-Sol Moyenne Portée (ASMP; medium-range air to surface missile) is a French nuclear air-launched cruise missile. Its maximum speed is listed as Mach 3 or 2250 MPH.
The ASMP, being an *air-launched* cruise missile, can be launched from anywhere. Ditto the American ALCM. Whether Ukraine is a member of NATO is completely irrelevant as to their use.
He expounds on that point right after PA Cat cut it off. Disagree if you like in your black/white, nonsense/Art Deco truth world but there was more to it than that.
I understand agency and causality. People manufacture Rube Goldberg contraptions to avoid acknowledging either, and pretend that their wheel-spinning exercises mark them as sophisticated.
Nor have I ever suggested that the West give Putin whatever he wants. I have suggested that accomodating Putin’s conditions on the Ukraine remaining a neutral buffer state and that the removal of offensive weapons systems from closer NATO member states is at least worth serious consideration. Especially as they can be restored if Putin turns out to be lying.
Again, the Ukraine has never been admitted to NATO. The Russian government has spent the last 8 years harassing the Ukraine, which is no way to treat your buffer state. Now they’re doubling down by threatening Sweden and Finland.
“…no way to treat YOUR buffer state…” (emphasis added).
Maybe not.
(OTOH, maybe Ukraine is not just ANY buffer state…and maybe Ukraine, with help from certain Democratic administrations, has made some lamentable policy decisions along the way.)
Here’s some elucidation on the above: Lee Smith’s “Tablet” article, to which Dick Illyes linked in an earlier post:
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/ukraines-deadly-gamble
…wherein Smith describes why Putin responded to Ukraine the way he did when Obama was president (illustriously “leading from behind”)—in 2014—and now to “Biden” (“leading from”…wherever—actually, make that “a benighted place that has yet to be, officially, described”…not that it really has to be).
Obama, “Biden”…. Coincidence?
“Biden” madness continues:
The move to “net zero”….
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/standing-putin-means-ditching-net-zero
Gotta “save” that planet!
Key grafs:
“Expanded pipeline infrastructure is critical to American energy security. One of the Biden administration’s first actions was cancelling the license for the Keystone XL pipeline…”
“It could be even worse. If John Kerry and the climate hawks had their way, the United States would be like Europe. The European Union is a paper empire. Its power is bureaucratic, deriving from rules and regulations. It is institutionally incapable of thinking and acting geopolitically because the EU is meant to be the exemplar of a post-geopolitical world, in which national sovereignty is dissolved in a supra-national, rules-based order. Net-zero and the UN climate process represent EU-style supranationalism at a global level….”
Here’s some elucidation on the above: Lee Smith’s “Tablet” article, to which Dick Illyes linked in an earlier post:
No, it does not elucidate on the above. It’s just column-inches filler.
“Geoffrey Britain,
It appears you believe that Russia should be able to dictate what countries NATO can accept as members and what countries they cannot.”
Condensed from “What Putin Wants”
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/what-putin-wants/
[my emphasis]
“Why not just make Russia head of NATO while you’re at it? I think it would make Putin feel more secure.”
That petty comment is beneath you neo. I’ve been extremely clear on my position and in no case have I acted as a Putin apologist. As previously stated, I arrived at my position independently, by putting myself in Russia’s shoes and asking myself if Putin’s rationale regarding NATO expansion was justified by the facts. Since I first stated my position here, in doing further research I have learned of half a dozen people, far more knowledgeable than I, who share my view of the conflict.
In viewing Putin’s responses in a news conference, he first puts forward his objections to NATO expansion but then goes into his theories of Ukraine belonging to Russia as further justification.
That Putin believes that the Ukraine is historically part of Russia and should once again be so does not cancel out legitimate concerns of NATO’s expansion. It does not obviate the Russian conclusion that NATO is determined to be on Russia’s border.
I believe that Vlad has chosen to manifest his beliefs with ordnance. Facts, Geoffrey.
NATO did not launch a Day of Infamy, or roll out the Schliefen Plan (part duex), or Barbarossa (the sequel) from Kyiv Geoffrey. Again, facts, Geoffrey.
I get that Geoffrey Britain* is on the other side of this. I’m pretty much there too. But holy cow, Neo, these comment sections have gone straight down hill. They used to be an island of sanity and respectful comments and discourse. Sure you had your trolls (like Manju). Everybody with a large readership has them. I used to come here and read through the comments for information and analysis, even when I disagreed with it. It is not what it was. I can’t even keep up with it all when I try. It’s more and more like Instapundit’s degrading comments sections every day (and that was a year ago when I gave up on those).
What the heck happened to this place? Has this happened before and I’ve missed these phases?
Fractal Rabbit,
As someone who likely spends as much time here as you, I don’t think anything has changed “to this place.” Events have changed, and many are very serious. Also, we are in a hugely disruptive time. The printing press was hugely disruptive. The telegraph. The telephone. Computers…
We humans are wrestling with how to navigate a new technology. With the click of a button I can see streaming video from a war zone, click another button and watch the Canadian parliament debate declaring emergency powers, click another button and watch videos of teens and young adults claiming a Heinz 57 variety of genders, click another button and watch Russian news sources lauding Vladimir Putin as the man who is freeing the Ukraine of neonazis!
And we can view thoughts and opinions of family members, neighbors, friends, teachers, mayors, policemen, Presidents, Press, Athletes, Entertainers… at a frequency and granular level never before available. What did Babe Ruth think of the assasination of Archduke Ferdinand? Likely nothing worth repeating, but the big bambino was not expected to express an unfiltered opinion, in real time.
And, as always, there is commerce in division. There is money to be made from creating sides and pitting them against one another. Say what you will about the U.S., but we have always been brilliant at exploiting sources of revenue.
What we see at neo’s place is a microcosm of what we see outside of neo’s place. I don’t see a change in neo, or what she posts on, nor do I detect personality shifts in the regular comment’ers. I love my wife and she loves me, but we don’t always agree and when we don’t it’s good to talk it over. If things seem more contentious here then it’s because things are more contentious. It’s the things, not neo or her readers.
Rufus T. Firefly,
Perhaps its that I don’t read every comment section, and I while I have been reading Neo since the Scott Murphy candidacy/election, I don’t read it every day. Only when my schedule allows. But I think that means the changes are more stark to me, like not seeing a nephew for a few weeks or months and suddenly they’re half a foot taller.
The tenor and tone here has definitely changed. And it could be that you’re correct, and its only a reflection of current events outside of here. But things have changed a lot.
Rufus, Fractal,
If things have changed here I think it is partly due to the changing of right/conservative thinking over the last 5-10 years. I would argue that a very large percentage of conservatives prior to 2008 or so were strong defense, pro police, pro FBI, pro big business among many other things that have weakened over the years and now there are many more conservatives that disagree (sometimes strongly) with what used to be pretty standard conservative thought while at the same time many are still in approximately the same spot as before thus much more internal strife.
Call it populism if you want but it is a fact that a large part of the right has very little interest in more foreign adventures or just blindly trusting what even our supposed allies (both foreign and domestic) have to say.
I know for me personally I have probably moved on more issues in the last two years than in the previous thirty of my adult life.
Disagreement on some matters is not always bad among people who generally agree on a lot of things.
Fractal Rabbit,
I think you’re right that there has been more derision lately, and there have been similar episodes in the past. Neo has written about some of this and she does step in and moderate when she feels a line is crossed and time allows.
There are a few curmudgeons here whom I won’t name that appear to enjoy stirring up conflict, even when not entirely appropriate nor relevant, and I’ve seen neo call them out openly and directly.
Personally, I prefer more rancor to less. I used to write on a fairly large site. It had a definite political perspective, but when the majority ganged up on the minority and drove them out I felt the site suffered overall. I like listening to Hymnns, but I prefer Jazz. I prefer Gumbo to plain broth.
Regardless, I hope you don’t stop reading and commenting. I have learned and gained insight from your writings in the past and would miss them if you stopped sharing.
Glenn Greenwald. I don’t agree with some of this but a lot of it is pretty spot on in my opinion.
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/war-propaganda-about-ukraine-becoming?utm_source=url
Thanks Rufus.
As far as my own preferences, I can get rancor anywhere! I usually pop in here for the lack of it.
Fractal Rabbit:
Stay safe and don’t be a stranger. Serious issues are being argued among people with strongly held beliefs.
om,
Thank you. I appreciate that.
“Why not just make Russia head of NATO while you’re at it? I think it would make Putin feel more secure.”
Well done, Neo!!!
Griffin,
The Obama Presidency, the Trump/Biden election, the U.S. withdrawal from Canada, COVID lockdowns, big tech censorship…
I too have changed many of my positions. I did not understand how fully immersed our nation is in a cultural war, nor did I understand the extent China is fomenting and exploiting Western unrest to its advantage.
I wish it were for different reasons, but it’s good to know this old dog can still learn! 😉
Rufus T. Firefly:
Regarding China formenting and exploiting Western unrest, IMO, that is of Z’s purpose; be it stoking race porn, or hostility to ethnic minorities, or Jews. The mode seems to be to encourage strife and division. So being the blunt instrument that I am, …. and of course he seems to have a soft spot for despotism.