Home » Open thread 2/24/22

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Open thread 2/24/22 — 44 Comments

  1. One is inevitably drawn to compare the gravitas of Kamala “Hey Guys” Harris and Condoleeza Rice
    Both women of color.
    (Though “hey guys” is Jamaican/Indian, right?)
    But one, iirc, spoke Russian and had a PhD.

  2. JimNorCal;

    Susan Rice has a Phd from Oxford, but it does not make her smart, but she is a very good liar.
    Blinken has an Ivy League degree; he is a moron.
    Oh, that’s right, Obama too has an Ivy League degree.

    Academic credentials do not translate into the ability to make decisions. It’s one thing to study the past – with 20/20 hindsight and where many outcomes were “obvious” – and quite another to confront the real world and real people in real time and then have to make real world decisions.
    There is no correlation between knowledge of past history, facts, data and one’s ability to make decisions in real time and that will have real world consequences.

    As George Orwell said;” some ideas are so stupid, only an intellectual can believe them.”

    That being said, Kamala Harris really is a moron and even if she got a Phd in whatever (outside of say, a STEM field) she would still be a moron, though perhaps with better verbal and BS skills.
    And of course, look no further than Joke Bidet; even his most ardent supporters would never claim he is an intellect of any sort (did Obama really say “never underestimate the ability of biden to F things up?” ).

    What Bidet and Harris demonstrate is that if you have the correct, deep moneyed, influential friends, literally anybody can become a member of Congress and even a US President.
    No advance degree needed, no brains needed.

  3. The existance of such abyssal critters does make you wonder about the possibilities of complex life on ice shell worlds. There’s a fair number of such places in our own solar system amongst the moons of the gas giants (Europa, Ganymede, Enceladus, and Titan). Whether or not abiogenesis could even occur in such places is difficult to say. And even if it could, would life only remain in a simple single celled forms? After all, it took billions of years on Earth for life to get reach the relatively complex forms seen in this video.

    But at least we have plenty of examples of a food web evidently largely based on chemosynthesis in our own oceans.

  4. Nonapod,

    If life doesn’t exist on ice shell worlds, perhaps life must first develop in more optimal conditions before it can spread into areas that can only support anaerobic chemosynthesis.

  5. Anyone have any recommendations for most up-to-date reliable news sources for Ukraine situation?

  6. @Mike Plaiss, I just regularly check Zerohedge. Although the comments section is often riddled with absurdly pro-Putin and anti-West sentiment. And I recall the CIA seems to regard Zerohedge as some sort of thinly veiled propaganda site for Putin. But despite the prepondrance Russiaphiles, I’ve found that they’re correct more often than not with regards to Russia and Ukraine news.

  7. No. I just spent some time trying to do just that. Overwhelmingly sloppy, slanted and ignorant coverage.

    The great # of Ukrainian military sites hit indicates that the Ukraine had received much armament from the West, i.e. the U.S. To what purpose? Since the Ukraine was never going to be able to stand up to a Russian invasion, it must have another purpose.

    That purpose is to force Putin to deal with it in anticipation of the probability that the Ukraine would eventually be incorporated into NATO. In dealing with it, watch for a campaign of calls for the Ukraine to promptly be given NATO membership to prevent “further Russian aggression”.

    That will force Putin to escalate from demilitarization to full on incorporation of the Ukraine into the Russian Federation.

    Which will in turn provide the Biden administration with a ready made excuse for the great increase in inflation. It’s all about domestic politics for Biden’s puppet masters.

    BTW, mass desertions in the Ukrainian military demonstrate the troops view of dying to protect an oligarchy.

  8. IMO Russia has been the device to keep the Military Industrial Complex funding going. Hillary has been in the middle of all of it.

    Trump should have been able to make a usable peace but was blocked. Putin actually asked to Join NATO years ago.

    I saw a post that claimed Putin said Monday: “You didn’t want us to be friends, but you didn’t have to make an enemy of us.”

    Weapons sales are driving NATO expansion. The Deep State needs an enemy and China is too successfully buying everyone off.

  9. There’s a general pro-Russia slant at ZeroHedge.

    And then there’s this, from over a week ago which pretty much tells you all ye’ need to know.
    (Someone, including me, should have been paying more attention…)
    “Why Russia May Invade Ukraine After All”
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-02-16/why-russia-may-invade-ukraine-after-all

    Which raises the question: If “Biden” knew that Russia was likely to attack, what was the point of ONLY talking and warning about it but not doing anything of substance—“anything of substance” being either shoring up REAL defensive/offensive capabilities along with rhetorical stuff OR retracting the offer that the Ukraine can, or should, join NATO.

  10. Thanks Nonapod. Not too worried about a bad comments section. Only comments section worth a damn is this one!

  11. Well, I didn’t think Putin would do it. No question Biden’s weakness is a key factor, but I figured if Putin were going to go in Ukraine, he’d wait until Biden was even weaker.

    But either Putin is more of a gambler than I thought, or Biden is already “even weaker.”

    Not good news.

  12. huxley:

    Strike while Brandon is still installed (not in charge) anyone other than Brandon would probably be more trouble to Vlad the Restorer.

  13. Barry Meislin,

    I find the article to which you linked to raise a red flag for me when it states, “Russia’s impossible ultimatums to NATO”.

    Russia’s conditions for satisfaction are not impossible at all. In fact, they’re entirely understandable and thus legitimate.

    NATO forgoing incorporation of the Ukraine into NATO is/was necessary for Russia’s legitimate national security concerns for the reasons I’ve stated previously. So too with NATO withdrawing offensive weapon systems from former Warsaw Pact countries.

  14. om:

    That would seem to indicate Putin had reason to believe that Biden was likely to be deinstalled sometime soon.

    That’s a nettle Democrats have been reluctant to grasp.

    Then there’s the Kamala question. Though I can see that Kamala, however idiotic, might be too much of an unknown quantity for Putin to gamble on.

    However Biden responds, I think we can depend on it being ineffectual.

  15. “anyone other than Brandon would probably be more trouble to Vlad the Restorer” om

    Would Harris be any less amenable to instruction than Brandon?

    huxley,

    Neither Brandon nor Harris is making the decisions. If and when Brandon is shown the door, Harris will do as she’s told… or else.

  16. I would say that it’s quite obvious that Kamala Harris is an extremely WELL KNOWN quantity.
    (Unfortunately for everyone involved.)

    …And no, neither the man who would be POTUS nor the woman who would be VPOTUS are the ones making the decisions….

  17. I had asked my Congress-people, when 1000s of Russian soldiers were gathering by Ukraine, to send US tanks, + soldiers, to Ukraine, to try to discourage Russia from [going to war] with Ukraine.

    Did these Congress-people ask the military to send US tanks + soldiers?

    No.

    Maybe they didn’t want the US, or their political party, to be seen as “Military people”, or the dreaded, “ready-for-a-war people”.
    (Some people in government think that “being military” can make them look bad.)

    I think- Putin believed that the US government wouldn’t send the military, to stand in his way, if he attacked, or went to war with, Ukraine.

    …Sometimes,

    …If you don’t stand up to military bullies, with your own military, [then the military bully attacks], and he succeeds.

    Sometimes you need to use your military, to- guard, or to defend.

    Sometimes you need to use your military, to defend your nation.

    Sometimes you need to use your military, to guard or defend- the nations that you are friends with.

    Sometimes you need to defend your nation, or other nations, in some situations.

    Thus endeth my speech-making for today.

    (p.s.- Nations, combining their militaries, to defend nations, can also be used for good purposes.)

  18. Biden’s long-delayed State of the Union Address next Tuesday just got a lot more interesting.

    Bet they’re wishing they hadn’t put the speech off until March.
    ____________________________________

    You had your whole life to prepare for this moment. Why aren’t you ready?

    –Val Kilmer, David Mamet, “Spartan” (2004)
    ____________________________________

    “Spartan” was a great action thriller, under-appreicated IMO. Likely because Mamet was on his way to deprogramming himself as a “brain-dead liberal,” as Mamet put it in 2008, so “Spartan’s” politics were a bit murky for the anti-Bush mood in 2004.

    (The US president in “Spartan” is a heartless philanderer along the lines of Ted Kennedy, not GWB.)

    neo might appreciate knowing, if she doesn’t already, that Mamet considers Thomas Sowell “one of our greatest minds”.

  19. I would say that it’s quite obvious that Kamala Harris is an extremely WELL KNOWN quantity.

    Disagree. Certainly, we’ve seen enough to measure her depth, but what she might do, as well as who she might listen to, if suddenly thrust into the chair of Commander-in-Chief and Leader of the Free World, could be a wild card.

    …And no, neither the man who would be POTUS nor the woman who would be VPOTUS are the ones making the decisions….

    Disagree. My take-away from the Afghanistan debacle was that Biden was indeed making some decisions, and bad ones, that people around him knew were bad, but didn’t overrule.

  20. “Russia’s conditions for satisfaction are not impossible at all. In fact, they’re entirely understandable and thus legitimate”

    Well, yes (EXCEPT that the devil is in the details—made especially devilish because of almost ineradicable paranoia and a masterful tactician skilled in deceit to a far, far greater degree than “Biden”)…

    The belief—your belief, as I understand it—is that all NATO would have to do is blink. (This after insisting it would never blink.)
    Then, all a wary, paranoid Putin—a Putin who believes he holds most if not all the cards—would have to do is believe NATO’s blink….

    Alas the problem at this point in the absurd pas-de-deux between Putin and “Biden” (though it’s more like Putin is manhandling “Biden” across the dance floor in a crazed, no-holds-barred tango) is NO LONG JUST Ukraine.
    The main problem is—as the author of the linked-to article explains (under “Game Theory”, below):
    “Russia forwarded demands to NATO to disavow further expansion (including Ukraine), and to withdraw foreign military forces from the ex-Warsaw Pact states. [emphasis mine].
    …So there you have it: Create impossible conditions. Express (or feign) “dissatisfaction” that they are not met (since they CANNOT be met) and then launch a “defensive” action… (or “war of liberation” or “justice” or whatever…)
    It works EVERY time…until it doesn’t, I guess.

    Here’s the full “Game Theory” section—
    ‘Game Theory
    ‘Even as the military buildup proceeded apace, Russia forwarded demands to NATO to disavow further expansion (including Ukraine), and to withdraw foreign military forces from the ex-Warsaw Pact states. Regardless of one’s stance on NATO expansion, this is an objectively and patently impossible ultimatum, and the Kremlin clearly designed it to be so (even leaving aside the minor matter of their intended recipient being a country it has labeled as “agreement-incapable”). Nor was there any salutary effect on Kiev. Although its UK ambassador mooted the possibility of Ukraine dropping its NATO bid, he reversed himself the very next day. Which is just as well so far as Russia is concerned, because such a commitment would have been incredible in any case.
    ‘However, by mere dint of having advanced these audacious demands – and gotten not only curtly rejected, but pressed with counter-demands to withdraw from Crimea and the Donbass – Russia has effectively committed itself to military operations in Ukraine. Should it fail to follow up, it will be recognized as an unironic troll country, one that scores cheap “owns” against Western “war propaganda” but can be expected to do nothing but puff out its cheeks if/when its bluff is called. Western politicians will have cause to believe that any future Russian buildups will also be bluffs, and that increasing weapons supplies to Ukraine works. Atlantic Council activists who insist that Russians “only understand the language of strength” will be validated, with subsequent responses likely to include acceleration of NATO integration and more “preventative sanctions.”…’

  21. Bet they’re wishing they hadn’t put the speech off until March.

    Clearly the plan was that by March 1st Biden could have claimed victory over Covid (platitudes like our long dark winter finally being over ect.) and the Democrat Media Complex could go into overdrive trying to convince everyone that it was “None other than Biden who vanquished the virus!” And “If not for Biden we’d still be suffering!” and whatever other horsewash and drivel they could invent.

    Now the messaging needs to be… adjusted. Now… somehow and some way the Republicans and Trump need to be blamed for what’s going on in Ukraine, no matter how far that may stretch credulity.

  22. I have said, particularly regarding the Afghanistan withdrawal, that I think that some of the administration’s foreign policy decisions are made by Biden. That one was. The ones concerning Ukraine are, as well, IMO. He fancies himself a highly experienced, highly knowledgeable, highly effective foreign policy expert. Even in his younger days he was a blustering fool, however. But he never had to answer for his decisions then because he wasn’t president.

    Plus, I doubt his advisors are any better.

  23. Regarding Ukraine, I spoke with some folks on the ground there today. Afterwards I searched the web for some news sources with similar information from their first-hand accounts. The New York Times wasn’t bad but the most consistent I found was Al Jazeera.

  24. I have to disagree with this statement:
    “BTW, mass desertions in the Ukrainian military demonstrate the troops view of dying to protect an oligarchy.”

    The Ukrainian troops and people will be fighting for Ukraine and for each other. I have not heard of mass desertions. So give me a source, other than the AP or Russian news.

  25. Barry,

    Just in, “Vladimir Putin has expressed his preparedness to engage in discussions with his Ukrainian counterpart, with a focus on obtaining a guarantee of neutral status and the promise of no weapons on its territory.”

    IMO, that validates my analysis of Putin’s motivations.

    Re: “Russia forwarded demands to NATO to disavow further expansion (including Ukraine), and to withdraw foreign military forces from the ex-Warsaw Pact states. [emphasis mine].”

    We’ll have to agree to disagree. Withdrawing “foreign military forces” from the ex-Warsaw Pact states is not a nonnegotiable posture. IMO where the West should draw the line is in retaining defensive weapon systems and the personnel needed to reliably operate them. That line I don’t think Putin could dispute since he can’t demand as a matter of national security, guarantees for Russia that he would expect to deny to other states.

    On the other hand, I find huxley and neo’s argument that the Afghanistan pullout demonstrates that Biden does have decision making power to be persuasive. Rather than taking orders from puppet masters, Biden is subject to persuasion by his advisors. Which of course is the case with every President.

  26. The rosiest scenario I can imagine regarding Russia and Ukraine is Russia secures the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and backs off everywhere else, after destroying a portion of the nation’s military equipment and infrastructure.

    Putin has been stating Donetsk and Luhansk denizens consider themselves Russian nationals and have been soliciting his protection and there are reports that some residents are fighting for the Russians. Who knows how true that is? However, the region does have an historical tie with Russia and some of the residents would likely be fine with the arrangement. I have no idea if it would become another Belfast.

    Those regions give him a buffer and better access to deep sea ports.

  27. How long does Vlad the Restorer expect or hope Brandon remains installed? He and Xi hope for the best (2024), since they have abundant leverage on him IMO. But with Harris, not so much IMO. With her they may have to plan eith Harris for just human foibles without the leverage they have on Brandon. But will Brandon’s incapacity get so bad that he is uninstalled before 2024? Seems likely IMO. But I’m no philosopher or sage.

  28. neo writes, “Even in his younger days he was a blustering fool, however.”

    All too true. Over 50 years of “service” to America and Delaware. A total midwit.

  29. SHIREHOME,

    https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/ukrainian-defense-minister-asks-civilians-on-facebook-to-take-up-arms-after-mass-desertion-among-troops/

    This is coming from the Russians so it may or may not be true or an exaggeration. On the other hand, neither Ukrainian authorities or the western media is going to report on it if it is true.

    I would suggest that those in the military who benefit from the oligarchy’s control of the Ukraine will fight, as it is in their interest to do so. I rather doubt that the average grunt in the Ukrainian military gets much of a share of the graft.

  30. “will Brandon’s incapacity get so bad that he is uninstalled before 2024? Seems likely IMO. But I’m no philosopher or sage.” om

    I suspect they’ve got him on a drug cocktail when needed. He seems to slide back and forth between incomprehensibility and a bare minimum of seeming comprehension and communication.

    I expect that relevant medical experts could offer a better estimate of his ability to remain functional than any philosopher or sage.

  31. Regarding Ukraine, I spoke with some folks on the ground there today.

    Rufus T. Firefly:

    What did your contacts say?

  32. On the 2-12-22 open thread, I wrote the following about Ukraine:

    “Two days ago, Dmitri Alperovitch wrote a detailed explanation of his opinion that Putin’s threat to invade Ukraine isn’t a bluff (https://tinyurl.com/33dc6ja2). Alperovitch said that he expected the invasion to start in 10-12 days. I have no idea what’s going on inside Putin’s head, but I have to admit that Alperovitch sounds convincing. If he’s right, we’ll soon see how NATO forces respond, how Russian forces respond to that, and so on.”

    Alperovitch’s analysis was pretty good. In case anybody’s wondering what he’s written today, here’s a sample and a link (https://tinyurl.com/4rdm48hu).

    “It’s becoming very clear that in the very near future, Russia is going to achieve it’s objectives of overthrowing Ukrainian government and establish a puppet regime.

    Let’s talk about what happens next.

    The first thing that Russian intelligence are going to do (likely already doing) is hunting down any current members of Ukrainian government that are unlikely to switch sides and kill/capture them. They are going to eliminate all opposition to their rule in the most brutal way.”

  33. It’s unimportant right now but VERY important in the long run for every single person on the Right and in the foreign policy establishment who relentlessly crapped on Trump be forced to own this whole mess. These people had the chance to say “Yes, Trump is awful, horrible, repellent, embarrassing, and contemptible…but we can’t put someone like Biden in the Oval Office.”

    Even if they didn’t directly promote Biden, constantly bashing Trump while remaining silent on Biden’s deficiencies amounted to the same thing. The people who lied the U.S. into the Iraq War mostly got away with it. We can’t let that happen again.

    Mike

  34. Here you go, straight from Putin’s lips to your ears.

    https://youtu.be/W2Cugn8JZfk

    Like the comedy Nazi wonders, “do you think that we could be the bad guys?”

    People in the West want peace, the West’s leadership and the elite want conflict because it suits their agenda and profits.

  35. huxley,

    In addition to my calls this morning I spoke with someone in the U.S. who spent yesterday phoning relations in most every region of the country.

    Unfortunately it’s not much different than what I read from news reports. Some locals still question there is an invasion (“I don’t hear or see anything”), some have evacuated or are evacuating, some think Russia intends to occupy the nation and some think Russia will take Donetsk and Lohansk and leave the rest alone.

    So it’s a mixed bag. The most surprising to me are the people on the ground who are questioning the news reports they are hearing. I’ve heard some state, “The news says there is bombing in such a such area. I would hear it if that were true.” And others who have heard bombing.

    One thing for certain, the Russians have not yet damaged commercial communications. Cell service and Internet seem to still be largely intact and they could easily take those out. Either they’ve decided to destroy as little civilian infrastructure as possible to make running the country in the aftermath easier, or they only intend to damage military equipment and don’t intend to stick around. I’m hoping it’s the latter.

  36. And Z chimes in to spin for Vlad. Xi approves.

    Does Taiwan have any unofficial nukes, and which way will the fallout fall relative to Hong Kong? Xi no like surprises? Life On The Beach. 🙂

  37. That was a short ten minutes. Such weird monsters down there! Some very pretty, but I’ve been scared of viperfish almost all my life.

  38. @ Barry > “Why Russia May Invade Ukraine After All”

    The source for the ZH post (Anatoly Karlin) was much more complete in his presentation of facts and analysis. The writer projects high confidence in his assessments, and, although I know nothing about him other than this one article, he called it where a lot of credentialed opinionators did not.

    https://akarlin.substack.com/p/regathering-of-the-russian-lands?utm_source=url

    There is a good chance that the coming week will either see the culmination of the biggest and most expensive military bluff in world history, or a speed run towards Russian Empire 2.0, with Putin launching a multi-pronged assault invasion of Ukraine to take back Kiev (“the mother of Russian cities”) and the historical provinces of Novorossiya.

    There is debate over which of these two scenarios will pan out. The Metaculus predictions market has given the war scenario a 50/50 probability since around mid-January, spiking to 60-70% in the past few days. This happens to coincide with the public assessments of several military analysts: Michael Kofman and Rob Lee were notably early on the ball, as were some of this blog’s commenters, e.g. Annatar. The chorus of skeptics is diverse, but includes Western journalists and Russian liberals who tend to believe Putin’s Russia is too much of a cynical kleptocracy to dare go against the West so brazenly (e.g. Oliver Carroll, Leonid Volkov); Western Russophiles who are all too aware of and disillusioned with hysterical media fabrications about Russia, and are applying faulty pattern matching (e.g. Michael Tracey); and Ukrainian activists who have spent the last eight years hyperventilating about “Russian aggression” and have been reduced to shock and disbelief now that the real thing is staring in their face.

    For the record, my own position is that the war scenario was ~50% probable since early January, might be as high as 85% now, and it will likely happen soon (detailed Predictions at the end).

    Much more than was excerpted at ZeroHedge; very interesting details and predictions.

    Here are his more recent posts from yesterday and today.
    https://akarlin.substack.com/p/military-technical-decommunization?utm_source=url

    Since my article last week predicting the imminent “Regathering of the Russian Lands”, the prospect of a large-scale Russian invasion has gone from ambiguous to extremely likely (90% on Metaculus). Personally, I think it’s a foregone conclusion, with operations beginning either tonight or tomorrow night, with the most interesting and important questions now being the speed of the Ukrainian collapse, the future borders and internal organization of Russian Empire 2.0, and the ramifications of the return of history on the international order.

    February 22, 2022 will indeed enter history as the day when Vladimir Putin decided to become a Great Man of history. In an hour long speech, he basically recounted his magisterial July 2021 article on the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians, officially endorsing the nationalist position that Russia is the “world’s largest divided big nation”. He stated that the modern Ukrainian state can be rightfully called “Vladimir Lenin’s Ukraine”, asserted that its statehood was developed by the Bolsheviks, and noted the irony in Ukrainian nationalists toppling statues to their father. “You want decommunization? Very well, this suits us just fine. But why stop halfway? We are ready to show what real decommunizations would mean for Ukraine.”

    Russian nationalists, a skeptical crowd that has long grown used to betrayals and disappointments from Russian politicians, were in shock and disbelief these past few days (Vile Varangian, a repatriate who, like me, was one of the few nationalists to identify Putin’s “nationalist turn” early, described it as suddenly living in a “Slavic Wakanda”).

    As I finish writing this, there are reports that Russia has closed the airspace over East Ukraine, the Ukrainian electricity grid has been decoupled from Russia and Belarus, and Putin isn’t answering Zelensky’s calls. Looks like Kyiv is soon going to be Kiev again.

    This one shows what side of the bread-substitute his icky wax is on.

    https://akarlin.substack.com/p/happening-the-ukraine-war-2022?utm_source=url

    I tend to stay away from moralistic judgments as they are highly subjective and of scant interest to me. But I will make a brief exception here. It would have been vastly better for all concerned had the unity of the Russian World – brutally contorted under the Bolsheviks, outright torn apart in the Belovezha Betrayal – been restored through boring but bloodless bureaucratic integration vehicles before the Euromaidan ruled it out, or even genuine federalization under Minsk II, had it ever been conscientiously implemented. It is Western Supremacists and their local collaborators who hoodwinked part of our people with sweet lies and false promises, humiliating and exploiting them even as they turned their hands against their brothers and sisters, who are the real authors of the present war. All the blood is on their hands. They started this war, but I believe that we will end it, quickly and humanely, and then we will make the miscreants answer for their crimes.

    I don’t know who he counts as Western Supremacists, whether he means Ukrainians only or people of other nationalities.

  39. Karlin, in his 2/23 post, links this article describing the response of “people in the street” to situation in Ukraine, which he attributes to “pro-Ukrainian partisans who have an understandable interest in trying to dissuade a Russian attack by making their capabilities out to be more threatening than they really are (i.e., blowfish strategy).”

    It gives some human-interest color to the country, FWIW.

    https://palladiummag.com/2022/02/18/waiting-for-the-russians-in-ukraine/

    Here is another recent post, from 2/22, that also uses the Godot metaphor.
    https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/waiting-for-the-rus

    The substance is different, but the tone is eerily similar.

  40. C’mon PEOPLE! (eg, huxley.) RHIS was an easy call.

    Crimea redux: QED.

    Putin follows RealPolitik. The Gomers around Xi-Den do not. They imagine their Globalist World is True, and expect everyone else to live in it.

    THIS wasn’t Rocket Science. PEOPLE who are self deluded ought to be nowhere near real power. Only condemned to idle faculty lounges.

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