Recalling Newsom
Here’s a piece on the entire California recall situation: what Newsom’s chances are, and how the recall system works there.
For what it’s worth, my prediction is that he will not be recalled but the vote will be close. And since I have only modest confidence in that prediction I’ll add that, if he is recalled, I think that a Democrat will win. The Democratic Party of California is very strong, the GOP very weak, and the Democrats cannot afford to lose this one so they will use every method at their disposal (and they have many, as the article describes) to make sure the party keeps the governorship.
The recall vote is in a special election on September 14th, which is only about a month away.
The thoroughly corrupt Democrats (so secure in their hold on power, and on the media, that they seldom have to conceal any more their nefarious intentions) will, of course, be relying on mail-in ballots (and perhaps on ballot-harvesting as well) to ensure that Cuomo is not followed by Newsom into the dust-bin of history. It is sobering to consider how little the Republicans (in opposition) are accomplishing to make certain that next year’s midterms will be conducted fairly and with every mechanism in place to minimize the possibility of fraud, whilst the Democrats are likely to do everything imaginable (HR 1 as well as S 1) to maximize the possibility of fraud.
His last name is “Newsom,” no “e.”
Kate:
Indeed.
Thanks, fixed.
I suspect that you are correct that Newsom, aka Gruesome, will beat the recall. Unless they abandon him, he has the Silicon Valley Oligarchs, and the SF political machine in his corner.
He can also throw the California taxpayer’s money around to various interest groups, including the state government employee’s unions.
Money, but not his own money, will flow like the wine at his notorious dinner party with the Cal Medical Assoc lobbyists. Or like that from his own wineries after “Covid” shut down competing ones.
I read the article at Ace you linked to. There seems to be no Democrat running in the second question (who would be governor if Newsom is recalled) who has much statewide name recognition. So if it’s a vote to recall, the Democrat winning seems a long shot.
I think Kate is correct. My understanding of the situation is that, against the advice of Willie Brown, Newsom and his protector, Nancy Pelosi, chose not to allow another Democrat on the ballot. So part 1 of this operation decides whether or not there will be a recall. If the voters choose a recall, Newsom is out. Part 2 decides which Republican will replace Newsom. If that’s wrong, someone please correct me.
Kate:
All that has to happen for a Democrat to win is that Newsom must be recalled and any Democrat on the ballot has to get more votes than the highest Republican. A majority is unnecessary, just a plurality. And with all those candidates from each party (twenty-four are Republicans), and a highly Democrat electorate, it wouldn’t be hard for one of the Democrats to do better than the highest Republican.
. . . and I see that my last comment is wrong and that I was going off misinformation. My bad. I am correcting myself.
neo:
I agree with both of your predictions. If there is any hope for a Republican to be elected, assuming Newsome does manage to lose, is that I’ve heard there is polling to indicate that as many as 40% of Democrats may not vote for a replacement. Whether this is true or not, and whether it will make a difference I doubt, but it’s at least a possibility.
Didn’t think he would like every other Leftist does, just ride it out until lead out in handcuffs.
No idea who replaces him but probably every decision they make would be the same as Cuomo.
I don’t give a toot about California. It is so overrun by illegals that it can be ceded back to Mexico. Soon.
I think it is possible that a lot of Dems are so upset with their high taxes and Newsom’s arrogance that they won’t bother voting.And Larry Elder is well known there and making calls for some positive changes, wch could cause other Dems to just sit out the vote.
I looked it up. There are nine Democrats on the recall ballot, twenty-four Republicans, two Greens, a Libertarian, and ten “no party preference” candidates. The point Ace was making is that none of the Democrats have much statewide name recognition, whereas Larry Elder (R) is well-known and popular among Republicans. If Newsom is seriously at risk, the Dems will need, soon, to choose a replacement candidate and work to make that person the choice after “No on recall.” The California GOP decided not to choose a candidate; I don’t know if Dems have, or will.
https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2021-recall/certified-list.pdf
Kate:
In the most recent poll I saw, the frontrunner Democrat was leading Elder, who is the frontrunner Republican. It was something like 27% to 23%. Make of that what you will, but there certainly is a Democrat doing much better than the other Democrats.
I haven’t seen a poll on the Democrats. Probably someone is leading among them. It will depend on turnout, which is why Newsom appears to be a bit worried.
I think it will probably shake out as neo suspects. However, even if Elder was elected to the Governorship, he’d still face an overwhelmingly democrat legislature that could easily override any veto by Elder.
However unlikely, if Elder does win… they’ll “Schwarzenegger” him. I was living in California when Schwarzenegger was elected and when he tried to work with the legislature. He got nothing from them. Frustrated, he tried to effect change through the proposition process. The police, teacher and firefighter unions literally crucified him in an extensive ad campaign.
Schwarzenegger never again tried to effect change.
The polling is going to be suspect on a replacement if Newsom is recalled. It is hard to poll the second question with the first up in the air- Democrats being polled may not put much thought into the 2nd question, and may not actually choose in the second question while only voting to retain Newsom.
Like Neo, I expect Newsom to squeak it out, but watch the polling on the 2nd question closely- if a nominal Democrat starts polling high in the 2nd poll, none are so far, then it is likely Newsom is going down.
Did I not read somewhere in the last day or two that the absentee voting rules for this recall are so lax that it’s a complete farce?
Am I imagining that I read that you can download and print the absentee voting form yourself?
I imagine the rules on voting are so relaxed, you can probably go in and vote twice in San Francisco.
Larry Elder is the wild card here. He has lots of money and is a known quality.
Newsom should still be considered favored to survive. But I agree Elder is a wild card. It’s certainly possible Newsom will go down in flames; indeed, I would put the odds at about 2/5ths, and growing
“There seems to be no Democrat running in the second question (who would be governor if Newsom is recalled) who has much statewide name recognition”
Agree. IF Newsom is recalled, anything can happen. The CA GOP sat on its hands till the very end until some big pockets donors showed up, then put out their hands for money.
The entire recall was done by grim faced grass roots activists.
People no different from you and me.
In the end, maybe all they’ll have done is to solidify Newsom. Regardless, it’s a valiant, noble effort.
Does it really matter if Elder were to be elected? The State is ruled by democrats and unfortunately he would find himself in Trump’s position – knee deep in a democrat snake pit that will fight him every step of the way. The rot is deep.
@ Zaphod – “Am I imagining that I read that you can download and print the absentee voting form yourself?”
Nope. It’s real. And there are actually some decent reasons for it (benefits disabled people with known modifications for electronic communication), but we all know what will really happen.
https://redstate.com/jenvanlaar/2021/08/09/heres-what-we-know-about-californias-print-at-home-ballot-recall-election-scheme-n423334
Bonus post:
https://redstate.com/jenniferoo/2021/08/10/hair-gel-newsom-goes-on-an-unhinged-rant-and-we-are-here-for-it-n424397
Larry Elder is the most likeable, articulate Republican gubernatorial prospect in California since Reagan. Unfortunately, he’s working against a corrupt Secretary of State who tried to exclude him from the ballot and, as Zaphod noted, is allowing downloaded ballots. The hapless GOP is also MIA. I haven’t seen a single ad for Elder or any other Republican candidate, and volunteer outreach appears nonexistent. Nonetheless, Newsom is very unpopular, so Elder does have a chance — I’d say 20% (not 2/5th). Send him money!
I like Steven Hayward’s “take” on Cuomo’s rant; it’s more literary than the one at Red State.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/08/gavin-newsom-goes-captain-queeg.php
That clip of Newsom is astounding, AesopFan.
It’s not clear to me whether it would be better for a Democrat or a Republican (presumably, Elder) to win if Newsom is recalled. Elder couldn’t really do much other than rescind Newsom’s more egregious virus restrictions, since the legislature remains filled with crazy Democrats. He could use the bully pulpit of the governorship to push for a better legislature, perhaps. It would take a miracle to break even the super-majority next year.
It would be huge for Elder to win.
It would derail one of the top Dem contenders for a future Presidential race, full of horrible policies already tested in the CA environment.
It would put a pleasing face on the Repub alternative.
It would give hope for future wins.
As Kate says, it would not make much of a policy difference. Mr Elder would have no power, he could only look forward to being sand in the gears.
@ JimNorCal – “Mr Elder would have no power, he could only look forward to being sand in the gears.”
Better than having another Democrat greasing the skids.
And if anyone complained about Governor Elder’s policies, why, that would be raaaasciiiist, wouldn’t it?
I’m seeing Elders online advertising.
It’s a step above the usual GOP slop.
Looks like Elder is actually doing A/B testing and not repetitively showing the same ads.
One of the ads even took a swipe at big business.
Ca Gop is MIA from what I can tell.
And the added Covid restrictions are upsetting people. Vaccine passports now in la and sf? And mask mandates.
And kids need to wear masks in schools.
And vaccine mandates for teachers and all healthcare workers.
And lots of anger over crime and homelessness. Both are statewide issues, unfortunately.
And the laptop class did ok during Covid financially, but the working class did not.
And all the Covid deaths?